World equity markets are still coming to terms with the aftermath of the earthquake in Japan and sentiment is likely to remain nervous over the coming days especially given the worries over the perilous state of their nuclear reactors. The events have very much overshadowed the situation in North Africa and the Middle East which remains very difficult and the risks of further supply disruption to oil is still very high. The oil price has come off its highs during the last couple of days due to the situation in Japan with expectations of lower short term demand. However, this may only prove to be a short term respite.


The economic data in the US that was published on Friday was somewhat mixed. The retail sales data for February was broadly in line with expectations with a +1.0% month on month increase whilst the number net of auto and gasoline sales was also as expected at +0.7%. The latest reading for the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index was disappointing and contained some ominous signs. The headline number declined to 68.2 from the latest reported number of 75.1. Looking at the constituent parts, the current conditions component declined from 86.9 to 83.6 but more worrisome was the forward expectations component which fell from 71.6 to 58.3 which is its lowest level since March 2009. The decline in the index so far this month is likely to be due to the recent decline in the equity market and higher gasoline prices. If both of these situations do not reverse in the short term it may well impact on consumer spending behaviour over the coming months.

This week in the US the main event will be the FOMC interest rate meeting. With increasing concerns over the impact on inflation of a high oil price the Fed members will undoubtedly be focusing on the inflation outlook. It is widely expected that the interest rate will be left unchanged and QE2 will also be left to run its course until the end of June. The language of the accompanying statement will be the focus of market attention and it may be that the statement becomes slightly more hawkish in nature as a means of reigning in inflation expectations.

With the end of QE2 in the US only three months away we can expect the market to start fretting over the sustainability of the US economic recovery, as happened last year with the demise of the first round of fiscal stimulus. Whilst QE3 currently looks unlikely the situation may change quickly if GDP growth starts to falter once again.

There is no major data due for publication in the US today and apart from the FOMC meeting tomorrow the other main economic event scheduled for Tuesday is the publication of the Empire State Manufacturing Index which basically gives a snap shot of the health of the manufacturing sector in New York State. After a healthy rise over the last three months to 15.43, the consensus expects a further improvement to +16.0. There are however some downside risks to this number in our view especially given that the forward looking component last time fell and the more recent decline in the equity market and the latest geo political developments may again weigh on the forward expectations component.

There is little economic data due for publication today in Europe apart from January industrial production for the Euro zone which increased by +0.3% month on month, which was a little weaker than the expected +0.4%. The January rise matches the upwardly revised December growth rate.

The main economic news for today has been the Bank of England’s decision on the interest rate which has been left unchanged at +0.5%. With inflation sitting at double the MPS’s inflation target the debate will continue to rage as to whether or not the interest rate should now rise. With GDP growth in the UK likely to be very modest for Q1 and following on from a contraction in Q4 2010 there is a significant argument for no change in monetary policy. The recent rise in the oil price is going to be yet another headwind to growth with the added problem of yet more inflationary pressure. The minutes of today’s meeting will make for interesting reading when they are published in a few weeks time. After the ECB effectively preannounced its first interest rate hike for next month the market has quickly moved to assume the same result for the UK. This is by no means a certainty at present given just how fragile the UK economic recovery is.


In the US today there is again very little on the economic agenda. As always we have the weekly initial jobless claims due for release today and after yet another improvement last week down to 368,000 the consensus is expecting claims to rise to 385,000. A further improvement would be welcome news and a sign that perhaps the jobless numbers in the US are going to start showing more consistent signs of improvement.

The sovereign debt crisis rumbles on with the cost of borrowing in Portugal, Ireland and Greece hitting new highs. Moody’s has today cut Spain's sovereign debt rating one notch and has warned of the possibility of further cuts as it believes the eventual cost of bank restructuring is likely to be double what the Spanish government expects.

China has today reported a trade deficit for February of $7.3bn. Exports were just +2.4% higher whilst imports rose by +19.4%. The deficit was unexpected by the market although in part it is attributable to the impact of the Chinese New Year and the fact that import prices have risen considerably rather than any sudden drop in Chinese demand.

The oil price is very much in charge at present and daily movements in world equity markets are very much dependent on the geo political situation in North Africa and the Middle East. We are unlikely to see any change in this pattern until there is concrete evidence that the situation is starting to calm down. For the time being we can expect some volatile trading sessions until the oil price starts to move back to more comfortable levels. In the event that the situation starts to deteriorate further the downside risks to world equity markets are likely to rise markedly.

The Non Farm Payroll data announcement in the US on Friday was overshadowed by further gains in the oil price which once again raised fears over the potential impact on global growth. At the time of writing the price of Brent Crude is close to $118. With the price of petrol now hitting a new high in some areas of the UK the rising oil price will begin to start reducing consumer spending power which will have an inevitable impact on sentiment. The real issue is for how long the oil price remains at these elevated levels and whether it continues to rise. The downside risks for the world economy with a high oil price are high and in particular the US consumer is very sensitive to rising gasoline prices. We can expect world markets to remain very nervous over the coming days.


Looking at the all important Non Farm Payroll data in the US which was announced on Friday, the headline number for February was +192,000 with the previous month’s number revised up to +63,000 from +36,000. Looking at the private payroll number, the month on month gain was +222,000 whilst the previous month was revised up to +68,000 from +50,000. Despite the strength there was a distinct lack of market reaction to the strong headline number. This may in part be due to the number being broadly in line with expectations when some forecasters were expecting something considerably larger after the poor January number which had been depressed by the bad weather. Looking at the combined gains over the last two months the total is little different to the run rate at the end of last year and the conclusion has to be that whilst the jobs market is improving, we are some way yet from a point of rapid improvement. To see real improvement the headline rate should be showing consistent monthly gains of 250,000+ and if next month we see a similar number to that of February there will be grounds for feeling slightly more enthusiastic about the US jobs market. The reported unemployment rate did again decline, this time to 8.9% but this is more a reflection of job seekers giving up looking for work and leaving the work force. We may well in due course see a reversal in this number as people once again decide to start looking for work.

The only other major data announced on Friday was US factory orders for January which grew month on month by +3.1% compared to consensus expectations of +2.0%. The better than expected number was primarily due to a boost from aircraft orders. If you strip out the transportation element the gain in factory orders for January was a more modest +0.7%.

The main economic event in the US this week will be retail sales which are due for publication on Friday. The only data announcement due for release today is consumer credit for January.

In the UK on Friday the only data release of note was the Halifax house price index for February which fell by -0.9% month on month. We continue to expect a gradual decline in prices over the course of 2011. Worries over UK growth are most certainly starting to increase especially after the recently downgraded Q4 GDP data. The prospect of a declining housing market will on its own dampen consumer sentiment but tied in with rising inflation and fears over what damage a high oil price will have on global growth is likely to leave the UK in a particularly difficult situation. The Bank of England MPC meet on Thursday of this week to decide on interest rate policy and whilst a rate hike still looks unlikely we appear to be moving closer to the point of the first base rate increase, perhaps as early as next month. The market is pricing in three +0.25% increases before the end of the year which would apply yet another brake to economic activity. However, the market is not always the best predictor of interest rate movements but even one base rate increase will change consumer expectations and that alone could impact on consumer spending behaviour.

There is no major data due for publication in the UK or Europe today.

The weekly initial jobless claims reported in the US today have fallen to 368,000 from the last reported level of 388,000. This is the lowest reading since May 2008 and is a sign that perhaps the US jobs market is starting to gain some traction. After a strong ADP private payroll number yesterday the market will be looking for a good Non Farm Payroll number tomorrow.


The US ISM Non manufacturing Index for February has been released today and that showed a modest improvement to 59.7 from the last reported level of 59.4. The consensus was expecting a modest drop to 59.0.

The European Central Bank has met today for its usual monthly meeting to decide on monetary policy. Whilst rates were kept on hold, in the clearest message yet from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, he said that the ECB may well raise the interest rate next month in the fight against inflation. It is not inconceivable that the ECB and the Bank of England may well both raise rates next month.

In Europe today German retail sales for January have been published and were up +1.4% month on month leaving the annualised growth rate at +2.6%.We have also had Euro zone retail sales for January which were up +0.4% month on month. The German and Euro zone services purchasing managers index for February have been released today and both were a little lower than the last reported number and consensus expectations, but still well within growth territory.

The UK services purchasing managers index for February has also been published today but this fell more than expected to 52.6 from the last reported number of 54.5. There has been a general slowdown in UK service sector activity and it is clear that UK GDP is on course for very modest growth during Q1.

World markets start the week in nervous mode with ongoing fears of an escalation of the tensions in the Middle East and North Africa. It’s all about the oil price as far as the market is concerned with Brent Crude up 1% this morning to $113.50 at the time of writing. The risks of a high oil price destabilising world growth are high and with most developed markets struggling with fragile recoveries their Central Banks would be left in a very difficult position if oil starts to push inflation yet higher. It will be difficult for them to tighten monetary policy given the impact higher oil will have on growth.


The first week of the month always brings with it a plethora of economic announcements including arguably the most important data announcement of the month, namely the Non Farm Payroll report in the US which is due out this Friday. After a poor number last month (+36,000) which analysts were quick to pass off as being down to the bad weather, this month we should see a notable increase with the consensus expecting a headline number of +180,000. Some forecasters have been talking about a number as high as +300,000. Clearly another disappointing number will be hard to explain, apart from a weak economy. The more recent weekly initial jobless claims numbers have certainly shown improvement and we should on paper see a much better number this week from the Non Farm Payrolls. The ADP Private Payroll number will be released on Wednesday and that is expected to show another healthy gain of +170,000 according to the consensus although as we have said in the past it has been a poor predictor of what to expect from the Non Farm number.

Also in the US we have the two set of ISM data to look forward to this week with the manufacturing index due out tomorrow and the equivalent number for services due for publication on Thursday.

The main event in Europe this week will be the ECB interest rate meeting on Thursday although it is widely expected that there will be no change in the interest rate. With an elevated oil price there is yet further reason to hold off from a tightening in policy and concerns over inflation are likely to be outweighed by fear of the recovery being knocked off course.

Today in Europe the January CPI has been published and this came in a little lower than expectations at -0.7% month on month compared to the consensus expectations of -0.6%. The year on year rate fell to +2.3%. In the US this afternoon we have Personal Income and Consumer Spending data for January due for publication. In addition the February Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and December pending home sales will be released. There is no major data due out in th

World markets continue to be dominated by developments in North Africa and the Middle East with all eyes focused on the price of oil. Brent Crude almost hit $120 this morning but has subsequently slipped back to $113 at the time of writing. Whilst the oil price remains at elevated levels world equity markets will remain in nervous mode. Some research doing the rounds today suggests that an oil price of $115 to $120 is the point at which the world could once again be pushed into recession. A short term spike that we are encountering now may well be harmful but the real damage would be done if the recent move is sustained over weeks and months. We are not yet at that point but there is no doubt that a high oil price is effectively a tax on consumers and if the situation does deteriorate the current market fears may well become a reality.


On the economic front we haven’t an awful lot to chew on today. German 2010 Q4 GDP was confirmed at +0.4%. The European Commission said its overall Economic Sentiment Indicator for the 17 countries that use the euro jumped to 107.8 from 106.8 in January, the highest reading since September 2007. The Euro zone clearly still has some good momentum which should translate into at least modest Q1 GDP growth.

In the US durable goods orders for January rose by +2.7% due to a significant increase in nondefence aircraft orders. If you strip out the impact of this the number does not look so appealing with an overall decline on the month of -3.6%. The durable goods number is notoriously volatile and it is difficult to read too much into any one month’s data.

The weekly initial jobless claims data in the US has again showed some improvement with a drop to 391,000 from the last reported level of 413,000. The employment situation the US does still seem to be showing tentative signs of improvement and the Non Farm Payrolls next week will make interesting reading giving the degree of catch up expected after the depressed number reported for January due to the bad weather.

Geo political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have brought the first bout of real volatility this year. The spike in the oil price resulting from what is happening in Libya is a cause for concern although it should be borne in mind that it is responsible for just 2% of the world’s supply. The real issue for world markets is if the problems spread to one of the big oil producing nations such as Saudi Arabia. Oil at over $100 a barrel is already going to drain growth from the world economy but anything significantly higher would be very damaging. Whether the turmoil spreads remains to be seen, but for the time being the rally in risky assets especially in the US is on hold and we can expect further volatility over the coming days until we have a better idea of what the end game with this particular crisis will be.


There is no doubt that a few storm clouds are now gathering and the geo political concerns have taken some of the headlines away from the arguing in Washington over fiscal cuts that are needed to address the US government’s annual budget deficit of $1.4trn and a national debt of approaching $14.1trn. With the current debt ceiling of $14.3bn expected to be hit within the next few months this is an issue that is not going away and at some point the US will have to adopt fiscal austerity measures to avoid the national debt spiralling out of control. At present they are arguing over how to fund government operations for the final seven months of fiscal 2011 with the Republicans pressing for $61bn of spending cuts as part of any deal. Without a resolution there is a risk of at least a partial US government shutdown. After so much stimulus that the US economy has enjoyed the prospect of government cuts will once again raise worries over growth and the economic outlook. We are not at that point yet but it seems inevitable that this particular issue will gain greater traction over the coming months especially as the US approaches its debt ceiling. When negotiations commence on the spending cuts that will be requested as part of any deal to raise the ceiling we are again likely to see some market volatility with heightened concerns over whether the US economy is ready to weather the fiscal austerity storm that is coming.

The Irish elections this week may also start to grab the headlines particularly given concerns over the winner pushing for a possible debt haircut on Irish banks debt. This would be a significant issue if it were to happen and would immediately raise concerns of similar action elsewhere in Europe. The implications would be significant and whilst an unlikely outcome it remains a possibility and is an issue that could well spook the market over the coming weeks.

Getting back to the economic data, yesterday in the US we had the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index for February which rose to a better than expected 70.4 compared to the previous reading of 60.6 and consensus expectations of 65.0. Of particular interest was the expectations index component which rose to 95.1 from the previous reported level of 87.3, leaving it at its highest level since December 2006 and above its long run average. Undoubtedly a rising equity market and a seemingly improving jobs market in the US is helping to improve sentiment despite the drag of higher gasoline prices and the double dip in house prices which appears to be underway. This does at lead bode well for consumption growth over the short term.

It looks like the UK is edging ever closer to the first +0.25% increase in the base rate judging from the minutes of the latest Bank of England MPC meeting which were published this morning. Spencer Dale has joined Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale in voting for an increase. Both Dale and Weale voted for a +0.25% increase whilst Sentance voted for a +0.5% increase. The minutes suggested that the some of the remaining members that voted for no change may well change their stance if the second revision to Q4 GDP due out on Friday shows some improvement on the initial estimate of a -0.5% decline. The market is expecting a +0.25% rate hike in either May or June but judging by the Minutes today we may well see the first rate rise sooner than this. The latest quarterly inflation report suggests that we could well be in for two and perhaps three rate rises before the year is out.

On the agenda today in the US the main economic announcement will be existing home sales for January. The consensus is expecting a modest decline to 5.25 million units on an annualised basis compared to the previous reported level of 5.28 million.

In Europe the only data of note that has been published today is Industrial new orders which rose by 2.1% in December after a 2.2% rise the previous month.

With the US closed for President’s Day we can expect a relatively quiet day of trading ahead. In the UK the only economic announcement of note was the Rightmove house price index for February which actually gained by +3.1% month on month. We remain nervous of the UK housing market and still believe that we are in for a prolonged period of gradually declining house prices in the UK. With forecasts of the first UK interest rate hike now moving closer to May/June, sentiment within the housing market may quickly change over the coming months which could well exacerbate house price falls.


In Germany the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing rose to 62.6 in February compared to expectations of 60.3 and the January reading of 60.5. The equivalent data for services did not perform as well, declining to 59.5 compared to expectations of 60.3 and the January reading of 60.3. Overall though Germany remains the European powerhouse and this was particularly evident today in the IFO Institute’s index of German business confidence which rose to a record 111.2 in February.

The main event in the US this week will be the January durable goods orders data due out on Thursday and the second revision to 2010Q4 US GDP. For durable goods the consensus is expecting a month on month improvement of +3.0% for the headline number whilst the ex transportation number is expected to be closer to +1.0%. After posting an annualised rate of +3.2% the Q4 GDP number is expected to be revised modestly upwards to +3.3%.

In the UK the main event of the week will be the publication of the minutes from the latest Bank of England MPC meeting. With two members voting last time for a rate increase it will be interesting to see if any other members have joined the rate hike club. What is clear is that we are moving closer to the first base rate increase. There is no doubt that despite the Bank of England’s expectation that inflation will fall over the medium term there is a good deal of uncertainty by just how much. With so much room for error especially given the current inflationary pressures, a token +0.25% interest rate hike may well be viewed as a means of aligning expectations to further rate increases over the coming months and that in itself may help to start bringing inflation under control.

The Bank of England’s inflation report yesterday was the major event and with expectations of inflation now moving up closer to the 5% level over the coming monthsthere is a real threat of a near term base rate hike. The report itself leaves considerable uncertainty over when the first rate hike will come but what is clear is that the Bank of England is becoming increasingly concerned about the medium term path of inflation and that is likely to mean at least a +0.25% interest rate rise over the coming months. An increase of just +0.25% is unlikely to unsettle the market and it will at least help to align expectations for perhaps another increase before the end of the year taking the base rate to 1%. The impact on the housing market of rising interest rates could be significant and we continue to believe that a gradual decline in house prices over the coming months is a likely outcome especially if interest rate expectations start to shift. This in itself could prove to be a big drag on consumer spending given the relatively high correlation between house prices and consumer sentiment.


In the US the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting which were published yesterday were a little more upbeat. Their forecast for US GDP was raised to between +3.4% and +3.9% for 2011 compared to the estimate last November of +3.0% to +3.6%. They are expecting the recovery to strengthen over the coming quarters and noted that “the downside risks to forecasts of both economic growth and inflation - as well as the odds of a period of deflation - had diminished." Much will depend on the state of the economy as we approach the end of QE2 which is expected to end around June.

The UK appears to be facing the prospect of a jobless recovery which is much the same situation in the US. The number of jobless increased by 44,000 to 2.5 million in the three months to the end of December. The big headline was the number of jobless in the 16 to 24 year old category with one in 5 unemployed after a rise in the number by 66,000 to 965,000. The unemployment rate remained at 7.9% but this does not reflect the number of people being forced to opt for part time employment rather than full time. Overall higher unemployment is going to impact of consumer sentiment and with the public sector cuts working their way through the system it is difficult to see the private sector being able to take up the slack. Unemployment looks set to deteriorate further over the coming months.

In the US yesterday Industrial Production was the surprise underperformer with a month on month decline of -0.1% compared to expectations of a +0.5% improvement, but this must be set against the previous month which was revised upwards to +1.2%. US housing starts for January increased by +14.6% after falling by just over 5% during the previous month. US housing market activity remains at very depressed levels and there is little evidence to suggest there will be a pick up anytime soon.

This afternoon in the US we can look forward to the weekly initial jobless claims number which after another fall to 383,000 last week is expected to move back up to 410,000. We also get the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for February with the consensus expecting an improvement to 22.0 from the previous reported level of 19.3. The CPI for January is also due for publication this afternoon with expectations of a month on month increase of +0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy expected to be just +0.1%. Ben Bernanke will be speaking this afternoon and we may see some market volatility on the back of any comments he makes about the economic outlook.

The much awaited UK CPI published this morning for January was as expected at +0.1% month on month leaving the annualised rate at +4.0% which is twice the level targeted by the Bank of England’s MPC . Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said today that inflation is expected to rise as high as 5% over the short term. He said that “the MPC’s central judgement under the assumption that the Bank rate increases in line with market expectations, remains that ... inflation will fall back so that it is about as likely to be above the target as below it two to three years ahead,". There is clearly a good degree of uncertainty over the medium term path of inflation and it seems likely that the market will continue to worry about the path of UK interest rates with expectations of an increase sooner rather than later with the market at present looking for a +0.25% increase mid year.


US retail sales for January have come in a little below expectations with a +0.3% month on month improvement, but if you exclude the impact of auto sales and gasoline the increase was +0.2%. Overall given the poor shape the US consumer is in this is still not a bad result for January although after the meteoric rise in the US equity market the miss may well be used as an excuse for some profit taking today.

The manufacturing data for New York State announced this afternoon was a little better than expected at 15.43 for February which is well into growth territory and is a reflection of the strong contribution that has been provided by the US manufacturing sector. The next report will be for Philadelphia on Thursday.

French, German and Euro zone Q4 GDP published today was a little less than expectations. For Germany, Q4 GDP came in at +0.4% on the quarter against expectations of +0.5% whilst France was weaker with a +0.3% gain compared to consensus expectations of +0.6% whilst the Euro zone as a whole achieved a +0.3% improvement compared t o expectations of +0.4%. Overall we can expect to see modest growth for Europe but with Germany and to a lesser extent France making up the running whilst the peripheral countries will continue to hold back growth as austerity measures impact.

Inflation and interest rates are the buzz word at the moment. With commodity costs spiralling upwards the fear of an early interest rate hike has become the focus of market attention. This week we will be on the receiving end of a plethora of inflation data for the UK, US and China. China is already in the process of trying to cool an overheating economy and only last week the People’s Bank of China raised their base rate by another 25bp to 3% but with their CPI still running at close to 5% there may well be more to come. We get the latest data for China’s CPI tomorrow with the year on year rate expected to be over 5%.


The UK has a significant inflation problem with many expecting the year on year rate for the CPI to move up to +4.1% when it is published tomorrow from the last reported level of +3.7%. This is very significant given that it would leave UK inflation at twice the 2% level targeted by the Bank of England. A number of commentators including ex MPC members are starting to question the judgement of the Bank of England. We will get further information about the thinking of the Bank of England when their quarterly inflation report is published on Wednesday. The MPC has continued to argue that there is sufficient slack within the economy to put downward pressure on prices over the medium term with the more recent pressures such as higher energy prices and food prices likely to prove only short term. However, if inflation does continue to move yet higher over the coming months the debate over the MPC’s credibility will start to get louder and we could well see a token 0.25% rise in the base rate before long to keep the market in check.

On Thursday the US CPI for January is due for publication with a month on month increase of +0.4% expected which would take the year on year rate to +1.6%. Inflation in the US is less of a concern at present and we are far from the point of the Federal Reserve raising the interest rate. However, market expectations have shifted somewhat with an increase of +0.25% expected towards the end of the year. This seems unlikely in our view although much will depend upon whether the US economy can survive after QE2 ceases around the middle of the year. If the economy does continue to have strength post QE2 we may well see a token rise in the interest rate but at present the US economy continues to look as if it will struggle in the absence of any major stimulus measures.

There is a large amount of economic data due for publication this week although today is relatively quiet with just European Industrial Production for December which fell by -0.1%. This was broadly in line with expectations due to the impact of the harsh weather in December. Despite the fall it still left industrial production for Q4 with a +1.7% increase compared to the Q3 number of +1.3%. Overall industrial production within the Euro zone is proving to be relatively robust and should continue to make a positive contribution to overall GDP growth.

Tomorrow in the US we get retail sales data for January which is expected to show a +0.5% month on month increase. The US manufacturing industry will also be in the spot light this week with both the Empire State Manufacturing index (due out tomorrow) and the Philadelphia Fed Survey (due out Thursday).

Apart from the CPI data in the UK this week the market will be focusing on the December unemployment figures due out on Wednesday along with the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report.

The last two days has been very quiet in terms of economic announcements and in the absence of any news the market seems intent on ticking yet higher. Today’s main economic news in the UK relates to the trade balance for December which hit a record £9.2bn. The ONS said the volume of exports declined by 0.1% in December whilst imports rose by 2%. Whilst some of the deterioration can be blamed on the bad weather it is clear that the underlying trend is poor. Without a strong contribution from external trade the UK economy faces yet another headwind to growth especially given the ongoing uncertainties over the global economic situation.


In the US tomorrow the main event will be the weekly initial jobless claims. After another improvement down to 415,000 last week the consensus is expecting 412,000 to be reported tomorrow.

In the UK tomorrow the Bank of England’s MPC meets to discuss interest rate policy and whilst no change is expected the market is becomingly increasingly nervous of when the first interest rate hike is going to come. Most commentators are expecting an increase of at least +0.25% before the year is out. At present the MPC is unlikely to raise the interest rate despite inflation remaining almost twice the targeted level of 2%. Their argument is that the factors creating the recent inflation surge such as commodity prices are only temporary and that inflation will move below target over the medium term. However, it does seem likely that they are also concerned about the potential impact of an interest rate increase on an already fragile UK economy. Whilst a +0.25% increase is unlikely to make a huge difference it would almost certainly raise expectations of a further increase and that alone would impact on consumer behaviour.

The disappointment over the headline Non Farm Payroll number on Friday of just +36,000 and a private payroll number of +50,000 quickly dissipated as headlines rolled out that the snow was to blame. Undoubtedly the bad weather will have had an impact but the consensus clearly didn’t factor this into their equation given that they were expecting a headline number of around +140,000. The bad weather may have held the number back but it doesn’t disguise the fact that the improving trend is still very weak. There is every chance we will see a degree of catch-up next month and some brokers are already talking about a headline Non Farm number for February of +300,000. We remain unconvinced by Friday’s announcement and unemployment in the US looks set to remain weak for a long time to come. The decline in the unemployment rate to 9% was unexpected but it is nothing to do with any improvement in the trend and more to do with the labour force shrinking by 500,000 as people continue to give up looking for work. Overall the bulls have focused on the weather impact but if we don’t see a healthy bounce next month it will again prove that employment trends in the US are far off what you would expect at this stage of recovery.


In Europe today December factory orders data for Germany were published which came in below expectations with a -3.4% month on month decline compared to expectations of a -1.5% fall. However, this does follow on the heels of a 5.2% gain last month and the year on year rate remains at a healthy +21.9%. The German economy remains the leading growth force within Europe but with the austerity measures starting to bite in the peripheral countries overall growth is likely to slow as the year progresses.

The only major data due for publication in the US today is Consumer Credit for December although this is unlikely to be a market moving event. Expectations are for a number of around $2.0bn.

There is no data due out in the UK today and the main event of the week will be the Bank of England MPC meeting on Thursday. Expectations are for no change but with two members voting for a +0.25% rate hike at the last meeting the market is growing increasingly nervous that the first increase in the base rate is getting closer. It still looks very unlikely that the interest rate will be increased but if inflation does continue to strengthen above expectations during the course of the year we may well see a token +0.25% increase before the year is out.

A brief update today as there is little in the way of economic news. The main event has been in the US with the publication of the ADP Private Payroll number for January which came in at +187,000 compared to expectations of around 150,000. The number for December was revised down to 247,000 from the previous reported number of 297,000. The ADP number has provided little guidance during recent months as to where the important Non Farm Payroll number is headed. However, the trend is most definitely positive and we should expect to see the private payroll number within the Non Farm data to be at least +100,000 with the consensus looking for around +150,000.

A very strong reading from the US manufacturing ISM index this afternoon for January is responsible for the rally gathering momentum during afternoon trading. At 60.8 the reading was well above consensus forecasts of 57.5 and the last reported reading of 58.5 (revised from 57.0). The US manufacturing sector has outperformed for some time now and the momentum judging from this data is still being maintained. Conversely to this, the construction spending data announced this afternoon for December actually fell by -2.5% month on month compared to expectations of a modest improvement of +0.2%. The data for November was also revised down to a decline of -0.2%. Within the data, private residential construction decline by -4.1%. Clearly expectations within the residential construction industry of any housing market recovery in the US remain very depressed. As we have said before without an improvement in US house prices US consumer confidence is likely to remain at very depressed levels. The major hope is that the employment market improves which makes the Non Farm Payroll data due out on Friday a very important announcement this month if the positive sentiment is to be maintained.


In the UK today the CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing was very strong with the PMI rising to 62.0 in January from the last reported level of 58.7. Some of this strength may well be attributable to catch up after the bad weather slowed activity during December. This lends weight to the theory that Q1 GDP may well show a reasonable amount of strength after the Q4 contraction. However, even without a degree of catch-up within the figure for January the trend is still firmly in growth territory.

Also in the UK we have had further evidence of weakness in the housing market with the Bank of England’s measure of housing approvals declining to 42,600 in December from the previous reported level of 47,300 for November. The Nationwide house price index for January was released today and this showed a -0.1% decline. The reported slump in consumer confidence last week combined with increasing unemployment may well raise the spectre of forced selling as the year progresses which may well put further pressure on house prices. An immediate slump is unlikely but a drift back in house prices over the coming months does look a real possibility.

Finally, in Europe today we have had unemployment data for December which fell by 73,000 leaving the unemployment rate at 10% compared to November which was revised down to 10% from 10.1%. German unemployment announced today for January fell by 13,000 after a 1,000 increase in December. This leaves the German unemployment rate at 7.4%, the lowest level since 1992 whilst for the whole Euro zone it is near a 12 year high. This demonstrates just how much divergence there currently is between the core and the peripheral countries.