EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �1.5B

Notes: UK Net Lending to Individuals released by the Bank of England is a monthly measure of growth rates, amounts outstanding and changes in total lending to individuals, divided into lending secured on dwellings and consumer credit. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. A high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.

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DE Unemployment Rate s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 6.9% / Consensus: 6.9%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office shows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Normally, a decrease of the figure is bullish for the EUR, while an increase is bearish.

#END

DE Unemployment Change

Location: Germany

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 13K / Consensus: 3K

Notes: The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which encourages economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-30 04:44:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks set for highest close since 2008: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.7% higher at 3am UK time, with almost three shares rising for each that fell. The measure has advanced 4.4% this month, poised for the biggest monthly gain since June. Japanese shares were mixed after Honda shares fell 3.4% when a profit forecast missed analysts' estimates. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Luxembourg to share company bank details: Luc Frieden, finance minister, said Luxembourg was willing to expand the number of accounts covered by new information-sharing agreements with the US and the EU to include global companies. The accords, agreed this month, currently only cover individual taxpayers. (Financial Times) Japan manufacturing PMIs grow faster: The Markit/JMMA Japan PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.1 in April from 50.4 in March -- the fastest rise since March 2012. (Reuters) US expects first debt cut since 2007: "The US Treasury expects to pay down debt in the second quarter of 2013 as the budget deficit that has dominated national politics starts to shrink." (Financial Times) Cyprus announces plans to cut down on graft and reform its political system, ahead of today's vote on the €10bn international bailout. (Financial Times) Greece approved the firing of permanent civil servants in a fast-tracked 'omnibus' bill on Monday, opening the way for eurozone officials meeting in Brussels to release a €2.8bn aid tranche the same day. (Financial Times) France plans to cut its armed forces headcount. (Financial Times) Abu Dhabi-UK clean energy investment talks: Abu Dhabi is in talks with the UK government to invest up to £1bn in alternative energy schemes alongside the state-owned Green Investment Bank. Kodak's UK pension fund gets old film assets: Eastman Kodak is to offload its outdated camera film business and other assets to British pensioners in return for erasing an estimated $2.8bn of claims. The groundbreaking plan has been agreed by UK pension fund trustees, and would help the company begin extricating itself from Chapter 11. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Will Italy lead the eurozone anti-austerity revolt? (Financial Times) - Brokerage accountants: the CFTC is looking closely at you. (Wall Street Journal) - The Nikkei 225, not what it used to be - thanks to Fast Retailing. (Bloomberg) - Not all European countries can be like Germany. (Financial Times) - KKR's €320m loan to a Spanish building materials company illustrates a new kind of private equity financing. (Financial Times) - European royal families feel a (small) pinch of austerity.. except the Dutch and Belgian ones. (Wall Street Journal) - FAA furloughs end. Cuts to meals for seniors, nutrition programmes for mothers/small children go ahead. (Bloomberg) - Abenomics detractors brace for "told you so" moment. (Reuters) - Italy's debt auction yesterday was at the lowest rates since late 2010. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -59.47 (-0.43%) at 13,825 Topix up +6.13 (+0.53%) at 1,167 Hang Seng up +150.61 (+0.67%) at 22,731 US markets S&P 500 up +11.37 (+0.72%) at 1,594 DJIA up +106.20 (+0.72%) at 14,819 Nasdaq up +27.76 (+0.85%) at 3,307 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +6.48 (+0.54%) at 1,203 FTSE100 up +31.60 (+0.49%) at 6,458 CAC 40 up +58.63 (+1.54%) at 3,869 Dax up +58.74 (+0.75%) at 7,874 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.89 (97.71) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.15 at 103.66 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.12 at 94.38 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +3.70 at 1,471 Copper (Comex) up +0.90 at 323.45 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.67% Germany 1.21% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.4bps at 95.29bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.88bps at 100.44bp Markit iTraxx Xover -19.2bps at 407.84bp Markit CDX IG -1.97bps at 76.28bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

Location: Germany

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.9 / Consensus: 5.9

Notes: The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -26 / Consensus: -26

Notes: The GfK Group Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Normally, a high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is bearish.

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US Personal Spending

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: Personal spending, released by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, measures purchases of goods and services by households and by nonprofit institutions that serve households from private business.

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US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.1%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US Personal Income (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: -0.2%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

#END

DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.0%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

#END

DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.4% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

#END

DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

#END

EMU Business Climate

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.86 / Consensus: -0.89

Notes: Business climate indicator, released by European Comission, is based on monthly surveys and is designed to deliver a clear and timely assessment of the cyclical situation within the euro area. It may be interpreted as a survey result: a high level indicates that, overall, the surveys point to a healthy cyclical situation. Conversely, a low level points to an adverse business climate. A rise (a fall) in the indicator will point to an upswing in activity and an improvement (deterioration) in the business climate. Its movement is clearly linked to the industrial production of the euro area.

#END

EMU Consumer Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -23.5 / Consensus: -22.3

Notes: The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-29 05:49:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks inched up amid optimism for further global economic stimulus measures from the Fed and the ECB this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific index excluding Japan gained 0.2% per cent after rising 2 per cent last week, the most since January 4. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. The Fed's FOMC meets on Wednesday and the ECB's interest rate decision is due on Thursday. (Financial Times) The Fed is widely expected to maintain its easing policies on Wednesday, in part because of inflation measures falling below the 2% target. (Wall Street Journal)(Bloomberg) IGC and Lloyds discuss biggest post-crisis European CLO: "Intermediate Capital Group and Lloyds Bank are in talks on the largest collateralised loan obligation in Europe since the financial crisis, adding to hopes that a once important source of funding for business in the region is making a comeback. ICG, the London-based provider of sub-investment-grade financing, has started fundraising for a €400m structured loan vehicle, according to sources with knowledge of the deal. The deal is expected to close over the summer." (Financial Times) UK ministers consider fracking 'sweeteners': "The government is proposing to bribe communities with cheaper energy bills in exchange for dropping opposition to local fracking projects as part of plans to push ahead with shale-gas extraction." (Financial Times) Portugal plans court action against banks over 'toxic' derivatives: The country's government is tackling Banco Santander and JP Morgan after the Treasury said two months of negotiations failed to produce an agreement. The government is attempting to stem losses of up to effort to stem potential losses of up to €3bn on complex hedging products. (Financial Times) ANA, the biggest Boeing 787 operator, plans to resume scheduled flights of the aircraft on June 1, its CEO Shinichiro Ito said. (Bloomberg) Dimon promotes Zames in latest shake-up: The JPMorgan Chase CEO reshuffled his executive team on Sunday in the latest in a series of turbulent management changes, promoting Matt Zames to chief operating officer. This came after Frank Bisignano, co-chief operating officer at JPMorgan, opted to take over as chief executive of First Data Corp, the payments processor. Zames, Mike Cavanagh, co-head of the corporate and investment bank, and Mary Erdoes, head of asset management, are seen as plausible successors to Dimon. (Financial Times) Netherlands, Luxembourg take big corporate tax hauls: The FT has a big investigation of competition among national corporate tax policies, finding that the two small countries attracted more foreign direct investment than the US, Germany and the UK combined -- although little entered the real economies of each country. (Financial Times) Forex platform proposes 'speed limit': EBS, one of the two dominant trading platforms in the foreign exchange market, is suggesting scrapping the principle of "first in, first out" trading, and instead batching incoming orders together and dealing with them in random order. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Bullion wait times suggest physical silver demand, like gold, is rising in Asia on lower prices. (Bloomberg) - Fears that 3% capital requirement will 'kill off' European money funds. (FTfm) - Stevenson and Wolfers on the non-Excel aspects of the Reinhart-Rogoff furore. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -41.95 (-0.30%) at 13,884 (Friday) Topix down -11.59 (-0.99%) at 1,161 (Friday) Hang Seng up +20.44 (+0.09%) at 22,568 US markets S&P 500 up +3.09 (+0.20%) at 1,582 DJIA up +11.75 (+0.08%) at 14,713 Nasdaq down -10.73 (-0.33%) at 3,279 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.23 (-0.35%) at 1,196 FTSE100 down -16.17 (-0.25%) at 6,426 CAC 40 down -30.42 (-0.79%) at 3,810 Dax down -18.10 (-0.23%) at 7,815 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 97.51 (98.06) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.48 at 102.68 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.39 at 92.61 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +15.70 at 1,469 Copper (Comex) down -0.85 at 317.60 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.67% UK 1.69% Germany 1.21% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.26bps at 96.69bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.19bps at 105.32bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.07bps at 427.04bp Markit CDX IG -0.75bps at 78.25bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Gross Domestic Product Annualized

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 3.0%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US Gross Domestic Product Price Index

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.6% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: Personal Consumption Expenditures, released by US Department of Commerce, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures consist of the actual and imputed expenditures of households; the measure includes data pertaining to durables, non-durables and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted toward individuals and consumed by individuals.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-26 05:47:01 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks were mostly higher, the yen was poised for its first weekly gain in four weeks and the NZ dollar was higher on trade surplus figures. Investors are looking to the Bank of Japan's forecasts of inflation and GDP today, from its first meeting since announcing a big stimulus programme, and US Q1 GDP data is also due later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% higher and the Nikkei rose 0.2%. (Bloomberg) Samsung Electronics' Q1 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, but its shares slipped as the world's biggest technology group by sales reiterated its cautious outlook for the global smartphone market. Despite heavy spending on marketing, it gave a restrained forecast for its performance in smartphones. It said it expects sales to stay flat in the second quarter but to pick up in the second half of the year, while alluding to a growing competitive threat from low-cost Chinese manufacturers. (Financial Times) Japanese consumer prices fell the most in two years in March. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.5% from a year earlier, compared to economists' consensus expectations of 0.4%. (Bloomberg) Merkel's interest rate comments highlight European divide: Germany in isolation probably needed higher interest rates, Angela Merkel said, in an unusual intervention just a week before many expect the ECB to cut its main interest rate. German officials normally avoid talking about interest-rate decisions to avoid the appearance of interfering with the ECB's independence. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Spain expected to turn away from austerity: Mariano Rajoy's government is expected to lay out an agenda that tilts away from austerity, with less-stringent deficit targets and more emphasis on spurring growth." (Wall Street Journal) ADM to buy GrainCorp for A$3bn: GrainCorp, the largest crop handler in eastern Australia, has agreed to a sweetened A$3bn (U$3.1bn) takeover offer from US-based Archer Daniels Midland after a six-month courtship. News of the deal sent GrainCorp shares to a record high in Sydney on Friday. The latest offer was the third since ADM's initial approach in October last year. (Financial Times) CBOE outage lasts several hours: "A software glitch knocked out trading on the largest US options exchange for more than three hours Thursday, raising fresh questions about the reliability of critical elements of the financial market." (Wall Street Journal) SFO launches criminal probe into ENRC: The announcement came days after founding shareholders said they were weighing up plans to take the Kazakh-based miner private. "People familiar with the investigation told the Financial Times that the agency had first begun an official probe into ENRC before its potential restructuring was announced last week." Two internal investigations were already under way after whistleblower allegations about assets in Kazakhstan and Africa. (Financial Times) Some US banks support Europeans against capital rules: European banks have won support from some US rivals, including JP Morgan, in fighting the Fed's proposal to force US subsidiaries of large foreign banks to hold more capital. However Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have told US officials that they support the moves, despite concerns about a breakdown in regulatory harmony. (Financial Times) US regulators want swift replacement of Libor: Regulators including the Fed and the Treasury said on Thursday that alternative rates "anchored in observable transactions" should be identified "promptly" by international officials and market participants. (Financial Times) Research suggests Google searches predict markets: People do more searches on terms such as "stocks", "portfolio" and "economics" when they are worried about the state of the markets. (Financial Times)(Paper) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Philip Stephens: This is a chance to rethink austerity orthodoxy. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: The pros and cons of a floating currency. (Financial Times) - Japan's investment banks are among the first and biggest Abenomics beneficiaries. (Bloomberg) - What Apple could learn from Warren Buffett. (Bloomberg) - Video: Draghi not such a rock star after all. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +27.40 (+0.20%) at 13,953 Topix down -4.89 (-0.42%) at 1,168 Hang Seng up +197.80 (+0.88%) at 22,599 US markets S&P 500 up +0.01 (0.00%) at 1,579 DJIA up +24.50 (+0.17%) at 14,701 Nasdaq unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 3,290 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.82 (+0.74%) at 1,201 FTSE100 up +10.83 (+0.17%) at 6,443 CAC 40 down -2.47 (-0.06%) at 3,840 Dax up +73.83 (+0.95%) at 7,833 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.12 (99.25) £/$ 1.55 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.46 at 102.95 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.46 at 93.18 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +9.60 at 1,471 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 323.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.71% UK 1.74% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.61bps at 96.43bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.77bps at 105.51bp Markit iTraxx Xover -3.88bps at 428.11bp Markit CDX IG -1.02bps at 79bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 352K / Consensus: 351K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.3% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-25 05:48:45 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares were broadly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 0.3%. The Nikkei rose 0.4% and the Hang Seng was 1% higher. (Bloomberg) Italy's new prime minister lost no time in calling for an easing of austerity policies. Enrico Letta, a veteran centre-left politician, outlined a programme of institutional reforms and measures to create employment, saying that "Europe's policy of austerity is no longer sufficient". (Financial Times) Buy-to-let landlords could be the biggest FLS beneficiaries, after the BoE gave the go-ahead yesterday for banks tapping its new funding mechanism for small- and medium-sized businesses to be allowed to lend the money on to property investors. Buy-to-let borrowing costs have already fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August. (Financial Times) Merkel faces austerity politics squeeze: "In the campaign for September's parliamentary poll, Ms Merkel risks being squeezed between the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), calling for more emphasis to be put on growth, and a new anti-euro party campaigning for the return of the Deutschemark." (Financial Times) Verizon considers $100bn bid for Verizon Wireless control: "Verizon Communications has hired advisers to prepare a possible $100 billion cash and stock bid to take full control of Verizon Wireless from joint venture partner Vodafone Group Plc, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday." (Reuters) Evonik will be biggest German public listing since 2007: Europe's biggest public listing of the year will take place on Thursday when a German chemicals company makes its trading debut in Frankfurt, valuing it at nearly €15bn. (Financial Times) South Korean Q1 GDP beats: South Korea's economy grew at 0.9% in Q1, the fastest quarterly pace for two years and a rate that beat economists' expectations of 0.7%. The growth was boosted by recovering exports and facilities investment. (Financial Times) Pressure is mounting on the ECB to cut interest rates next week, after Germany's poor Ifo business confidence survey yesterday. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) "Samsung Electronics said demand for its flagship Galaxy S4 device is stronger than expected after two top US wireless carriers pushed back their release dates, citing shipment delays. "Pre-order demand is much stronger than expected, so it's difficult to rapidly boost supply in the short term," Lee Don Joo, president of the strategic marketing office at Samsung's mobile business, said today during a company event in Seoul."" (Bloomberg) European businesses tackle US banks over OTC derivatives spat: The European Association of Corporate Treasurers, which convinced the EU to exempt OTC derivatives sold to corporates from an onerous Basel III capital charge, has accused JP Morgan and other US banks of not putting their own customers' interests first. The European treasurers' group wrote to JPM raising questions about its "concern for its corporate customers globally" because of its lobbying against the concession, but the bank responded that it was seeking a worldwide reduction in the charges. (Financial Times) US bill for 15% 'megabank' capital requirements unveiled: Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat from Ohio, and David Vitter, a conservative Republican from Louisiana, proposed new legislation that would require banks with more than $500bn in assets to meet a new capital requirement of 15%, while midsized and regional lenders would need to hold 8%. The bill is being closely watched on Wall Street, even though it is unclear whether or how far it will advance in Congress. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Janet Yellen's admirers and foes. (New York Times) - Opec seems okay with sub-$100 oil for now. (Financial Times) - How long can peripheral bonds defy gravity? (Wall Street Journal) - Young, unskilled and unemployed in Spain. (Financial Times) - The problem of extroverts in finance. (Financial Times) - Greece is reviving pursuit of WWII reparations from Germany. (Wall Street Journal) - Olam is surviving Muddy Waters' criticism. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MOSTLY UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +60.14 (+0.43%) at 13,904 Topix up +5.01 (+0.43%) at 1,169 Hang Seng up +246.54 (+1.11%) at 22,430 US markets S&P 500 up +0.01 (0.00%) at 1,579 DJIA down -43.16 (-0.29%) at 14,676 Nasdaq up +0.32 (+0.01%) at 3,270 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.79 (+0.74%) at 1,192 FTSE100 up +25.64 (+0.40%) at 6,432 CAC 40 up +59.89 (+1.58%) at 3,843 Dax up +100.82 (+1.32%) at 7,759 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.39 (99.47) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.42 at 102.15 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.41 at 91.84 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +17.70 at 1,441 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 315.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.71% UK 1.71% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.24bps at 95.82bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.19bps at 106.28bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.76bps at 431.99bp Markit CDX IG -0.74bps at 80.02bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Location: United States

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

#END

US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 5.7% / Consensus: -2.8%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

#END

UK BBA Mortgage Approvals

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 30.5K / Consensus: 31.2K

Notes: The Mortgage Approvals published by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) measure the number of home loans issued by the BBA during the previous quarter. It is considered as a leading indicator of the UK Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall UK economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish)

#END

DE IFO - Business Climate

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 106.7 / Consensus: 106.2

Notes: This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Current Assessment

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 109.9 / Consensus: 109.5

Notes: The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Expectations

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 103.6 / Consensus: 103.0

Notes: The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-24 05:42:24 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose as the yen weakened against the dollar, and after positive US earnings news. The Nikkei was up 1.7%, the Hang Seng 1.3% and the Kospi rose 1%. The yen fell to as low as 99.77 against the dollar, before rebounding to 99.30. (Bloomberg)(Reuters) Lloyds branch sale to Co-op collapses: The planned sale of more than 600 branches to the Co-operative Group has collapsed after the Co-op concluded yesterday it could not proceed with the deal. It means Lloyds will have to revive a "plan B" to float the branch network as a freestanding business, and bankers are sceptical that process could be initiated, let alone completed, by the end of the year -- which is its deadline imposed by Brussels. The Co-op board's decision yesterday to pull the plug on the deal are not yet clear. (Financial Times) Gold rose today after yesterday recording its biggest fall in a week, with the gains attributed to rising physical purchases. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.9% to $1,426.08 an ounce after falling 0.9% yesterday. (Bloomberg) Italian prime minister set to be announced: After a long day of talks yesterday, President Giorgio Napolitano was expected to nominate a prime minister today. Giuliano Amato, a former socialist prime minister, was widely tipped although the mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi and centre-left deputy leader Enrico Letta have also emerged as possible candidates. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Portugal announces ambitious stimulus measures: "Economy Minister Álvaro Santos Pereira said the government will aim to cut the corporate tax rate, provide incentives for foreign companies to move to Portugal, tackle a highly bureaucratic system that hurts investments and offer financing for small- and medium-size enterprises at attractive terms." There were no figures attached to the plan, some of which may require approval from international creditors. (Wall Street Journal) ENRC chairman resigns: "The chairman brought in to clean up the controversial FTSE 100 miner Eurasian Natural Resources Corp, resigned on Tuesday, in the latest stark illustration of the difficulty of grafting City governance standards on to mining groups with powerful Asian shareholders." (Financial Times) British food stamp recipient numbers double: New data released today by the Trussell Trust, the biggest food bank operator, says annual referrals jumped to 350,000, from 130,000 a year earlier. (Financial Times) US sues Novartis, alleging kickbacks: "The U.S. government filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Novartis AG on Tuesday, accusing a unit of the Swiss drug maker of causing the Medicare and Medicaid programs to pay tens of millions of dollars in reimbursements based on fraudulent, kickback-tainted claims." (Reuters) Accor chief ousted: Denis Hennequin, chairman and chief executive of Europe's largest hotel group by rooms, was ousted. The board said Hennequin's strategy "was the right one" but made clear the results were not coming through fast enough. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What Merkel did in eurozone's most desperate moments. (Wall Street Journal) - Martin Wolf agrees with Reinhart-Rogoff critics; not too late to reconsider austerity blunders. (Financial Times) - Einhorn likes Apple's big payout. (NYT Dealbook) - Shale gas develop 'much slower' outside of the US, says Shell. (Financial Times) - The Libor vaccuum. (Financial Times) - Blackberry diehards get their keyboard back. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +225.21 (+1.66%) at 13,755 Topix up +11.11 (+0.97%) at 1,155 Hang Seng up +282.34 (+1.29%) at 22,089 US markets S&P 500 up +16.28 (+1.04%) at 1,579 DJIA up +152.29 (+1.05%) at 14,719 Nasdaq up +35.78 (+1.11%) at 3,269 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +28.03 (+2.43%) at 1,183 FTSE100 up +125.50 (+2.00%) at 6,406 CAC 40 up +130.92 (+3.58%) at 3,783 Dax up +180.10 (+2.41%) at 7,658 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.40 (99.46) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.27 at 100.58 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.37 at 89.55 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +11.80 at 1,420 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 309.40 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.71% Germany 1.26% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.45bps at 95.58bp Markit iTraxx Europe -3.58bps at 107.47bp Markit iTraxx Xover -16.35bps at 433.75bp Markit CDX IG -2.99bps at 80.76bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United States

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 13:58 - 14:58

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 54.6

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the United States. Readings above 50 imply the economy is expanding, making investors understood it as a bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 points for an economic contraction, and weighs negatively on the currency.

#END

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �4.356B / Consensus: �14.100B

Notes: The Net Borrowing released by the National Statistics captures an amount of new debt held by the U.K. governments (the financial deficit in the UK national accounts). Generally speaking, if the Net Borrowing is negative, it means the UK Accounts are surplus, and that should be positive for the GBP. While a deficit is generally unfavorable for the economy, a growth in the Net Borrowing is considered as negative, or bearish for the GBP.

#END

DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 50.9 / Consensus: 51.0

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

#END

DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.0 / Consensus: 48.9

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-23 05:48:09 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell, erasing earlier gains, on fears about China's manufacturing sector growth after flash PMIs were published. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% lower and the yen rose slightly. The Nikkei was 0.2% lower and the Hang Seng fell 1.2%. (Bloomberg) China's flash PMIs fell in April: China's manufacturing sector expansion appears to be slowing this month, as preliminary HSBC/Markit PMI was 50.5 for April, compared to 51.6 in March and below the 51.5 consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This month's survey was being watched particularly closely for signs of Q2 economic momentum, after the Q1 GDP growth reported last week missed expectations. (Bloomberg) S&P says there's a more than 1-in-3 chance it will downgrade Japan because of risks and uncertainties about how 'Abenomics' policies will work. The country's long-term debt is rated AA- by S&P. (Reuters)(Statement) Europe may have hit the political limits of how far it can go with austerity policies because of the growing opposition in the eurozone's recession-hit periphery, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said on Monday. While such policies were "fundamentally right", they may have reached a limit of social and political acceptance. (Financial Times)(Reuters) EU warns on 'protectionist' US bank capital plans: Plans to force foreign banks operating in the US to hold more capital are a threat to harmonious global regulation and risk "a protectionist reaction", the EU commissioner in charge of financial services, Michael Barnier, warned in a letter to Ben Bernanke. The Fed responded by defending the "targeted adjustments" for foreign banks, saying they stemmed from those banks having had "significantly greater reliance on potentially unstable, short-term wholesale funding". (Financial Times) Libor 'unsustainble', says CFTC chair: "Gary Gensler, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told the Financial Times that Libor replacements were needed "to restore market integrity and promote financial stability"." (Financial Times) Walmart directors working on the retailer's investigation into bribery allegations in Mexico had their cash pay doubled to at least $120,000 last year because of the extra work. Four members of the retailer's audit committee received an extra $60,000 last year, on top of $60,000 in retainers and equity awards worth $175,000. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - How much will a weak yen really help today's Japanese economy? (Financial Times) - Asian banks offer perks to private banks whose clients buy their bonds. (Bloomberg) - Just 22 companies account for half of all cash held by non-financial S&P 500 firms. (Wall Street Journal) - Apple under pressure on products. (Financial Times) - Italian bonds strengthened on president news. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -26.90 (-0.20%) at 13,541 Topix up +0.32 (+0.03%) at 1,146 Hang Seng down -270.65 (-1.23%) at 21,774 US markets S&P 500 up +7.25 (+0.47%) at 1,563 DJIA up +19.66 (+0.14%) at 14,567 Nasdaq up +27.49 (+0.86%) at 3,234 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.81 (+0.16%) at 1,155 FTSE100 down -5.97 (-0.09%) at 6,281 CAC 40 up +0.17 (0.00%) at 3,652 Dax up +18.15 (+0.24%) at 7,478 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.31) $/¥ 98.57 (99.21) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.63 at 99.76 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.51 at 88.68 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +24.30 at 1,424 Copper (Comex) down -0.50 at 312.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.69% UK 1.67% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.96bps at 98.03bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.44bps at 111.05bp Markit iTraxx Xover -7.94bps at 450.1bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 83.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Location: United States

Date: 22/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.44

Notes: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-22 05:47:46 by Kate Mackenzie Asian markets rose, led by strong performance by Japanese exporters' shares as the yen weakened against the dollar. The Nikkei was 2.1% higher and the Hang Seng was little changed while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.4% after the earthquake in Sichuan province which killed at least 188 people. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.6%. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) The US economy will officially become 3% bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties, R&D spending, and other intangible assets. A BEA official said it would be the biggest change since computer software was included in GDP in 1999. The impact . (Financial Times) Italian president Giorgio Napolitano was re-elected on Saturday and is expected to propose a a bipartisan cabinet supported by the two main, centre-left and centre-right forces, as had been anticipated after the national elections two months ago which resulted in a deadlock. Meanwhile Giorgio Squinzi, head of the country's main business lobby Confindustria, urged politicians to form a coalition government or risk condemning the country to a prolonged recession. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Banks have put a damper on George Osborne's hopes that an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme will spark a rush of credit to small and medium-sized companies as the chancellor finalises plans to revamp the programme. An extension of the scheme will be announced within the next two weeks, which banks welcomed but warned would be insufficient, on its own, to clear the credit bottleneck. (Financial Times) BaFin puts Reits in turmoil: The German financial regulator has proposed that German Reits should be regulated as investment funds under the EU's Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive, due to come into effect in July. This would bar many equity funds from investing in Reits and deter investments from countries such as China. (Financial Times) China's slower Q1 growth is a 'normal' effect of structural reforms, PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. "China's undergoing economic restructuring, which sometimes is not in lockstep with growth," he told reporters on Saturday after the G20 meeting. "We need to sacrifice short-term growth for the purposes of reforms and structural adjustments." (Bloomberg) Three more executives leave ENRC: Three senior executives have resigned and a fourth has taken leave of absence from the Kazakh mining group that controlling shareholders are considering removing from the FTSE 100 via a buyout. The departures come ahead of a board meeting on Tuesday where sharp divisions are expected to emerge between members associated with controlling shareholders and directors independent of them. (Financial Times) G4S to quit key Israel contracts amid protests: "G4S, the world's biggest security company by revenues, has confirmed it is planning to quit key contracts in Israel amid protests against its involvement in settlements within occupied Palestinian territories." (Financial Times) Audit regulator calls for end to anonymity: James Doty, head of the US audit regulator PCAOB, has made a fresh call for senior auditors to be stripped of their anonymity as details continued to emerge from the KPMG insider trading scandal. "Investors really want this. They don't see why they shouldn't have it," he told the FT. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gavyn Davies: Little sign that policy-makers are listening to the IMF's warnings. (Financial Times) - The composition of this year's stock market rally is unusually defensive. (Wall Street Journal) - UK manufacturers become the luddites of Europe, with many too small to invest in robotics. (Financial Times) - Bernanke won't be attending Jackson Hole this year because of a scheduling conflict. (Reuters) - New research backs climate hockey stick graph. (Financial Times) - India's water scarcity presents massive costs for governments and corporations. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +275.38 (+2.07%) at 13,592 Topix up +21.28 (+1.89%) at 1,148 Hang Seng up +8.10 (+0.04%) at 22,022 US markets S&P 500 up +13.64 (+0.88%) at 1,555 DJIA up +10.37 (+0.07%) at 14,548 Nasdaq up +39.70 (+1.25%) at 3,206 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +5.81 (+0.51%) at 1,153 FTSE100 up +42.92 (+0.69%) at 6,287 CAC 40 up +52.60 (+1.46%) at 3,652 Dax down -13.77 (-0.18%) at 7,460 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.80 (99.77) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.37 at 100.02 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.41 at 88.42 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +26.30 at 1,422 Copper (Comex) down -1.55 at 313.60 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.72% UK 1.66% Germany 1.25% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.99bps at 98.99bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.57bps at 113.49bp Markit iTraxx Xover -3.61bps at 458.04bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 83.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE German Buba President Weidmann speech

Location: Germany

Date: 22/04/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Dr Jens Weidmann is the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank. He is member of the Governing Council of the ECB and has some responsabilities: Communication, Legal, Economics Research Centre...

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-19 05:46:53 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose, paring earlier losses and leading some analysts to say this week's sell-off was overdone. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.2% after earlier falling 0.3%. The yen weakened against the dollar by 0.4% to 98.6 after finance minister Taro Aso told reporters that Japan's policies were unopposed at the G20 meeting. (Bloomberg) UK and IMF set for austerity dust-up: George Osborne is "prepared to 'aggressively' defend his policies" when an IMF team arrives in London next month to make an annual assessment of the British economy, according to aides. He fears that an anti-austerity faction is gaining ground within the Fund, which could formally urge for a relaxing of Osborne's fiscal plans, providing a boost to the Labour party. (Financial Times) "Blackstone pulled out of bidding for Dell amid concerns about the computer maker's finances and the worsening outlook for global PC sales, said people with knowledge of the situation." (Bloomberg) Italy's centre left splinters after failure to agree on president: "Questions were immediately raised over Pier Luigi Bersani's continued leadership of the Democratic party after many of his parliamentarians rebelled and voted against his preferred presidential candidate, Franco Marini, an 80-year-old former Catholic trade unionist widely seen as emblematic of a discredited establishment." The election of a new president was seen as a crucial step towards either forming a new government or dissolving parliament for fresh elections. (Financial Times) Ireland picks through debtors' lifestyles: "Irish homeowners applying for debt writedowns will have to give up satellite television, foreign holidays and private school educations for their children under a strict new insolvency law introduced to tackle the country's debt crisis." (Financial Times) Energy companies pose stability risk: British economist Lord Stern says the size of energy companies means there is a risk of fossil fuel assets being devalued by climate policy. "These carbon-based companies form a tremendous part of international financial assets and if those were at risk, as they surely would be if we took the [climate change] issue as seriously as we should, then that is potentially a major source of instability." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - UK dairy group plugs pensions hole with actual cheese. (Financial Times) - Analogue businesses in many sectors are unprepared for the digital revolution. (Financial Times) - Clues to how Rich Ricci's fate was sealed. (Financial Times) - Gillian Tett: Wake up to the twitter effect on markets. (Financial Times) - Spain's tide of foreclosure squatters. (Bloomberg) - Japan will make good on Abenomics promise, says finance minister. (Financial Times) - Private equity groups regain enthusiasm for listings. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +46.15 (+0.35%) at 13,266 Topix up +0.24 (+0.02%) at 1,123 Hang Seng up +223.58 (+1.04%) at 21,736 US markets S&P 500 down -10.40 (-0.67%) at 1,542 DJIA down -81.45 (-0.56%) at 14,537 Nasdaq down -38.31 (-1.20%) at 3,166 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.38 (-0.03%) at 1,147 FTSE100 down -0.54 (-0.01%) at 6,244 CAC 40 up +0.13 (0.00%) at 3,599 Dax down -29.30 (-0.39%) at 7,474 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 98.53 (98.13) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.37 at 99.50 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.27 at 88.00 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,392 Copper (Comex) down -3.75 at 316.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.69% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.4bps at 100.98bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.88bps at 114.06bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.96bps at 461.65bp Markit CDX IG +0.87bps at 84.98bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 19/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: 0.7%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 18/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 346K / Consensus: 347K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 3.3% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.6% / Consensus: -0.5%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-18 05:49:55 by Kate Mackenzie Most Asian stocks fell, led by mining companies amid fears of a weaker outlook for global growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was 0.5% lower, the Nikkei and the Kospi fell 0.3% and the ASX was down 0.7%. The Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite swung between gains and losses. Gold fell as much as 2.8% on outflows from ETFs. (Bloomberg) Japan has posted its narrowest trade deficit for nine months, helped by a big rise in the value of shipments to the US, which has toppled China as Japan's number one export destination. Provisional figures from Japan's finance ministry today showed that overall exports rose 1.1 per cent in March from a year earlier to Y6.3tn ($64bn), while imports – boosted by fuel to replace idled nuclear capacity – were up 5.5 per cent to Y6.6tn. (Financial Times) Apple shares dropped below $400 for the first time since December 2011 after one of its audio-chip suppliers, Cirrus Logic, reported an inventory glut that suggests iPhone sales may fall short of analysts' expectations. The company's shares are down 43% from their record high in September. On Tuesday the company is expected to report its first year-on-year decline in quarterly earnings for almost a decade, and sentiment was also weighed down by news that Apple was ordered by Chinese authorities to remove some content it hosted. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Italy's centrist parties said to reach deal on President: "Senior parliamentarians in both parties told the Financial Times that an agreement had been made on the candidacy of Franco Marini, an 80-year-old former Speaker of the senate." President Giorgio Napolitano's term ends in mid-May, and a new head of state will have to try to break the deadlock from the inconclusive February elections. (Financial Times) G20 talks in Washington begin today and central bank easing is expected to be in focus. The merits and risks of low interest rates and unconventional monetary policy were also debated at the IMF spring meetings yesterday. Currency valuations and debt reductions goals are also likely to be topics of debate. (Reuters) Global policymakers will discuss the impact of unprecedented monetary policy easing at meetings in Washington this week along with the softly-softly approach central banks will need to eventually wean the world off super-cheap funds. New BHP chief makes mark: Andrew Mackenzie, the new CEO of BHP Billiton, has moved to stamp his authority on the company with an overhaul of its senior management team that will see the head of petroleum, chief executive of the aluminium and nickel division, and head of ferrous and coal division all depart their roles. A new structure will mean five divisional chiefs all report directly to the CEO. (Financial Times) Euro falls on Bundesbank comments: The German central bank's president Jens Weidmann "signaled that the ECB could reduce interest rates if incoming data suggest it is warranted. But he warned such a move wouldn't turn around the euro bloc's economic fortunes." Weidmann warned Europe's debt crisis could take another decade to overcome. (Wall Street Journal) PBoC says China will press on with widening the Rmb trading band, despite slower than expected growth in Q1. "I think in the near future we are going to increase the floating band even further," PBoC vice governor Yi Gang said in Washington. (Wall Street Journal) Net selling of overseas assets by Japanese institutional investors continued for a fifth week, but the rate of sales was much slower than in the first week of April. The sales have confounded expectations that Japanese investors would rush to buy foreign assets in the wake of the BoJ's new easing measures; but some analysts say it may still be too soon to expect massive outflows. (Wall Street Journal) "Chinese banks must rate their clients' risk of criminal conduct on a scale of 1-5 as part of the central bank's moves to curb money laundering and fraudulent transactions estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars a year." (Reuters) BP accepted responsibility for a critical Deepwater Horizon negative pressure test, as the first phase of the liability trial for damages and penalties over the 2010 disaster ended. However the company said it had strong safety systems and had not put the crew under pressure to finish the Macondo well more too quickly. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Reinhart and Rogoff: Robert Pollin and Michael Ash on 'Growth in a Time of Debt'. (Financial Times) - The IMF must quit the Troika to survive. (Financial Times) - Central bankers debate risks of unconventional policies ahead of IMF's spring meeting. (Financial Times) - Jesse Eisenger looks at fears of a Fed-inspired bubble. (NYT/Propublica) - Japanese swaps are already anticipating Kuroda's endgame. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -36.67 (-0.27%) at 13,346 Topix down -2.50 (-0.22%) at 1,134 Hang Seng down -10.08 (-0.05%) at 21,560 US markets S&P 500 down -22.56 (-1.43%) at 1,552 DJIA down -138.19 (-0.94%) at 14,619 Nasdaq down -59.96 (-1.84%) at 3,205 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -18.10 (-1.55%) at 1,148 FTSE100 down -60.37 (-0.96%) at 6,244 CAC 40 down -86.56 (-2.35%) at 3,599 Dax down -179.55 (-2.34%) at 7,503 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.30) $/¥ 98.25 (98.09) £/$ 1.53 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.02 at 97.67 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.11 at 86.79 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -18.60 at 1,364 Copper (Comex) down -1.80 at 317.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.69% UK 1.67% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.18bps at 100.58bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.84bps at 113.18bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.72bps at 453.69bp Markit CDX IG +1.99bps at 84.11bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Fed's Beige Book

Location: United States

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The Beige Book reports on the current US economic situation. Through interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources are gathered by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The survey gives a picture of the overall US economic growth. An optimistic view of those authorities is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish for the Dollar.

#END

DE 10-y Bond Auction

Location: Germany

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 11:40 - 12:40

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.36%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the Federal Bonds auctioned by Deutsche Bundesbank. German Federal Bonds have maturities of above then ten years. The yield on the bonos represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

#END

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 7.8% / Consensus: 7.8%

Notes: The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the U.K. labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the U.K. economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is negative.

#END

UK Claimant Count Rate

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 4.7% / Consensus: 4.7%

Notes: The Claimant Count Rate released by the National Statistics is a monthly measure of unemployment in the UK It indicates the health of the UK labor market. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market, while it indicates economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures if the rate is down. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is seen as negative.

#END

UK Bank of England Minutes

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

#END

UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Average Earing Including Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the U.K. economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates "Bullish for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen

#END

UK Claimant Count Change

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -1.5K / Consensus: 0.5K

Notes: The Claimant Count Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-17 05:48:59 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days as new-home construction in the US beat forecasts and the yen weakened, helping the Nikkei rise 0.9%. The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained 0.5% cent after dropping 1.2% over the past two days. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Credit Suisse is facing a shareholder revolt over pay after ISS, the proxy adviser, asked investors to block the bank's plan to issue 27m shares – worth more than SFr700m ($760m) at current market prices - for employee bonuses. (Financial Times) "Intel's gross profit margin fell harder than expected in the opening months of this year as it geared up for a new generation of microprocessors that are seen as vital to the struggling PC industry's hopes for a rebound." (Financial Times) BHP Billiton reaffirmed its full-year production guidance in spite of a lacklustre performance from its iron ore and petroleum assts in the past quarter. (Financial Times) The Chinese government warned the number of H7N9 infections could rise after two more deaths were confirmed, bringing the toll to 16. The two victims were in Shanghai, the site of most of the 77 confirmed cases so far. (Reuters) 787 battery decision expected 'soon': Federal Aviation Administration chief Michael Huerta told a US congressional committee on Tuesday he expects to decide "very soon" whether to approve Boeing's redesigned 787 Dreamliner battery system, potentially ending a three-month ban on flights by the high-tech jet. (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOUS: - Martin Wolf: The deflation dog that did not bark. (Financial Times) - The IMF is also completely fed up with this austerity caper. (Wall Street Journal) - Wither Tokyo's bar scene as techies replace traders. (Bloomberg) - Central banks' gold holdings lost $560bn. (Bloomberg) - China's specific type of financial crisis. (Financial Times) - John Kay: Fair value is not the same as market price. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +120.11 (+0.91%) at 13,342 Topix up +13.42 (+1.20%) at 1,133 Hang Seng down -10.95 (-0.05%) at 21,661 US markets S&P 500 up +22.21 (+1.43%) at 1,575 DJIA up +157.58 (+1.08%) at 14,757 Nasdaq up +48.14 (+1.50%) at 3,265 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -8.74 (-0.74%) at 1,166 FTSE100 down -39.02 (-0.62%) at 6,305 CAC 40 down -24.69 (-0.67%) at 3,686 Dax down -30.05 (-0.39%) at 7,683 Currencies €/$ 1.32 (1.32) $/¥ 98.12 (97.52) £/$ 1.54 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.37 at 100.28 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.01 at 88.73 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -7.90 at 1,379 Copper (Comex) up +0.35 at 331.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.72% UK 1.75% Germany 1.28% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.98bps at 100.76bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.23bps at 111.34bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.99bps at 445.97bp Markit CDX IG -3.22bps at 82.12bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Building Permits (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.946M / Consensus: 0.943M

Notes: The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Normally, the more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD.

#END

US Housing Starts (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.917M / Consensus: 0.924M

Notes: The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Generally, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 48.5 / Consensus: 45.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 13.6 / Consensus: 15.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

#END

UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.8% / Consensus: 2.8%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.3%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

#END

UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.3% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-16 05:47:27 by Kate Mackenzie Most Asian stock markets fell and risk assets were generally lower, with poor sentiment attributed to unexpected falls in US housing starts and China's GDP growth, as well as the Boston marathon bombings. The Nikkei rose slightly and the yen weakened 0.3% but the MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.9% lower. Earlier, the S&P500 closed with its biggest lossin five months. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) "Two powerful bombs exploded near the finish line of the Boston Marathon on Monday afternoon, killing three people, including an 8-year-old child, and injuring more than 100..." (New York Times) Spot gold fell as much as 1.9% to $1,325/oz and gold futures for February 2014 deliver fell as much as 10% in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Dish bids $25.5bn for Sprint in challenge to Softbank: Charlie Ergen, chairman of Dish Network, launched a $25.5bn offer for Sprint Nextel that trumped an agreed deal for the US wireless carrier by Japan's SoftBank. The unsolicited cash and stock bid, which would marry the second-ranked US satellite television operator with the third-largest US mobile phone provider. Softbank shares fell the most in six months in Tokyo amid fears the Japanese company would raise its own bid. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) Charterhouse may pull sales amid low interest: UK buyout house Charterhouse may pull two of Europe's largest private equity disposals because of a lack of competitive bidding interest, highlighting the difficult dealmaking environment for buyouts in the region. Only one planned bid emerged for Ista, the German metering company, and it was expected the offer may fall short of its asking price of at least €3bn. This mirrors a similar shortage of bidders in Elior, a French caterer that Charterhouse took private in 2006, for which there only appears to be one interested party, according to people with knowledge of the situation. (Financial Times) ENRC hit by whistleblower claim: "ENRC has suspended one of its managers in Africa due to whistleblower allegations of impropriety in the latest blow to the FTSE 100 miner left reeling by investor concerns over corporate governance." The manager in Mozambique has been suspended pending the outcome of an internal investigation, the company said. (Financial Times) Greece on track to receive aid tranche: "Greece has identified some 15,000 public-sector workers to be let go over two years as part of a tentative agreement sealed Monday with its international lenders to unlock the next payments from its €173 billion ($226 billion) bailout." Finance minister Yannis Stournaras said Greece may ask for more debt relief. (Wall Street Journal)(Reuters) Business confidence among finance chiefs of the UK's biggest companies has risen sharply as worries about economic and financial uncertainty have dropped to their lowest level for two-and-a-half-years, a quarterly survey by Deloitte shows. (Financial Times) JPMorgan to be faulted over Madoff: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is expected to issue a cease-and-desist order against JPMorgan for failing to conduct adequate due diligence and report suspicious activity relating to Bernie Madoff's activities, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Reuters) Creditors reject Energy Future proposal: Energy Future Holdings, the Texas power producer that in 2007 was the subject of the largest-ever leveraged buyout, has reached out to creditors to propose a pre-packaged bankruptcy for one of its principal units and a consensual restructuring of its $32bn of debt. But lenders who control the senior debt turned down the complicated proposal and broke off talks. (Financial Times) Trafigura staff net $1.6bn in share deals: The commodities trading house handed about $1.6bn to its senior employees in the past three years by buying back their shares, according to a bond prospectus. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gideon Rachman: Europeans are losing faith in national and EU institutions. (Financial Times) - Charted: Paulson's $1bn losing gold bet. (Bloomberg) - Get used to slower China growth. (Bloomberg) - Apartments, jewellery and some distinctly modest cars described as French ministers reveal their wealth. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +20.79 (+0.16%) at 13,296 Topix down -14.58 (-1.27%) at 1,134 Hang Seng down -124.52 (-0.57%) at 21,648 US markets S&P 500 down -36.49 (-2.30%) at 1,552 DJIA down -265.86 (-1.79%) at 14,599 Nasdaq down -78.46 (-2.38%) at 3,216 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -7.50 (-0.63%) at 1,175 FTSE100 down -40.79 (-0.64%) at 6,344 CAC 40 down -18.82 (-0.50%) at 3,710 Dax down -32.14 (-0.41%) at 7,713 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.30) $/¥ 96.78 (98.40) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.10 at 99.53 Light Crude (Nymex) down -3.27 at 87.39 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -13.90 at 1,347 Copper (Comex) down -4.70 at 329.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.73% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.92bps at 101.74bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.61bps at 111.57bp Markit iTraxx Xover +5.28bps at 447.96bp Markit CDX IG +3.31bps at 85.34bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/04/2013

Time: 14:00 - 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $25.7B / Consensus: $41.3B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-15 05:48:51 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stock markets and most commodities fell after Chinese GDP and other economic data came in below economists' estimates. The Nikkei and Hang Seng both fell 1.5% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 1% lower. (Bloomberg) China's Q1 GDP growth was 7.7%, missing estimates. The country reported 7.7% year-on-year growth while median economist forecasts were for 8% according to a Reuters poll. Industrial production grew 9.5%, compared to 10% for the same period in 2012 and retail sales rose 12.4% in the quarter, 1.9 percentage points lower than last year. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Gold, silver prices tumble: Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 3.9% to $1,425.75 an ounce, the lowest level since April 2011, while silver fell 5% to its lowest level since November 2010. (Bloomberg) Global economy in a rut: "The global economy is stuck in a rut, unable to sustain a decent recovery and susceptible to a sudden stall, according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index of recovery." (Financial Times) Troika officials arrive in Lisbon today to assess a new round of austerity measures as the government struggles to keep the country's €78bn rescue programme on track and avoid a second bailout. The mission will determine payment of the next €2bn installment of Portugal's bailout loans and final approval of an agreement to give Lisbon seven more years to pay them back. (Financial Times) "BT will significantly undercut the pricing of Sky subscriptions for pubs as the telecoms group attempts to snatch some of the £300m market for its new sports channel launching this summer... Sky has already offered some large pub groups heavy discounts of up to 30%, people with knowledge of recent negotiations told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) Hopes of full payout for Lehman Europe creditors rise: Creditors of the European arm of the bank may receive payment with interest. "In a report sent out to creditors on Friday, administrators PwC said there was a "reasonable chance" of repayment in full of the £15bn in unsecured claims, following a string of legal victories against other defunct Lehman entities in recent months." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Wolfgang Münchau: One currency, many values. (Financial Times) - BoJ triggers emerging market fund inflows. (Wall Street Journal) - Ed Luce: Why the US envies Germany. (Financial Times) - Oil tanker woes. (Wall Street Journal) - Dividend recaps are back in Europe: fastest pace since the credit boom. (Financial Times) - Lucy Kellaway: Worst-performing employees are often the most engaged. (Financial Times) - World Bank cuts China 2013 forecast to 8.3% from 8.4%. Really. (Reuters) - Top hedge fund managers saw a big fall in returns last year. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -199.08 (-1.48%) at 13,286 Topix down -15.86 (-1.38%) at 1,133 Hang Seng down -336.00 (-1.52%) at 21,753 US markets S&P 500 down -4.52 (-0.28%) at 1,589 DJIA down -0.08 (0.00%) at 14,865 Nasdaq down -5.21 (-0.16%) at 3,295 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -10.77 (-0.90%) at 1,182 FTSE100 down -31.75 (-0.49%) at 6,384 CAC 40 unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 3,729 Dax down -126.86 (-1.61%) at 7,745 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.66 (97.70) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -2.15 at 100.96 Light Crude (Nymex) down -2.52 at 88.77 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -61.60 at 1,439 Copper (Comex) down -3.65 at 331.25 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.73% UK 1.73% Germany 1.26% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.69bps at 100.82bp Markit iTraxx Europe +2.99bps at 110.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +8.42bps at 442.68bp Markit CDX IG +0.47bps at 82.03bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END