US Fed's Beige Book

Location: United States

Date: 05/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The Beige Book reports on the current US economic situation. Through interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources are gathered by each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The survey gives a picture of the overall US economic growth. An optimistic view of those authorities is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish for the Dollar.

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US ADP Employment Change

Location: United States

Date: 05/06/2013

Time: 13:15 - 14:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 119K / Consensus: 170K

Notes: The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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UK Markit Services PMI

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 05/06/2013

Time: 9:28 - 10:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 52.9 / Consensus: 53.2

Notes: The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. Traders want the highest possible reading as that will be taken as positive for the GBP. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 05/06/2013

Time: 8:53 - 9:53

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.6 / Consensus: 49.8

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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US Trade Balance

Location: United States

Date: 04/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -$38.8B / Consensus: -$41.0B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for US exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading US Dollar with US Trade Balance

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EMU Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 04/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Eurostat is an index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). Generally, a high reading is seen positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK PMI Construction

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.4 / Consensus: 49.6

Notes: The PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics shows business conditions in the UK construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing sector does A result that values above 50 signals appreciates (or is bullish for ) the GBP, whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-06-04 05:26:55 by Joseph Cotterill Asian shares were muted. The Nikkei rose 1 per cent following Monday's weak ISM manufacturing number in the US. (Reuters) Topix fact du jour: analysts expect its earnings to rise 57 per cent this year, compared to a global average of 19 per cent. (Bloomberg) Japan's public pension funds are to be recruited to buy stocks and real assets in the Abe government's latest move to mobilise the country's savings for growth. A panel will be set up to review investment guidelines for the public funds, which have previously piled into Japanese sovereign bonds, including the mighty Government Pension Investment Fund. The guidelines would come into force by April 2015 under the draft plan. (Reuters) Japanese wages rose by the most in a year in April. The 0.3 per cent increase in monthly pay follows recent salary rises at Toyota, Honda and Hitachi. (Bloomberg) The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 2.75 per cent. (RBA statement) Concern is rising that volatility in Japanese and US government bond yields could swamp banks' Value at Risk models. While banks increasingly use "stressed" VaR as part of their regulatory capital calculations, preparing them for repeats of the worst volatility of recent years, traditional models can be used to set internal trading limits. One investment bank breached its limits after recent statements by Japan's new central bank governor. (Financial Times) The most popular brand of bond mutual funds have been caught out by recent jumps in yields. US funds investing in higher-rated debt of less than 10 years' maturity lost 1.8 per cent in May, their worst performance since October 2008. (Financial Times) No ECB "bazooka" planned for small-business credit crunch. The central bank is unlikely to commit large resources to improving SMEs' access to funding, after concluding that clean-up of banks' balance sheets would do more to encourage lending. Separate ECB plans to work with the European Investment Bank to reopen the ABS market for SME funding are not expected to have a large impact. (Financial Times) Small Italian companies are increasingly turning to "minibonds" to replace bank loans. (Wall Street Journal) Europe "losing the 4G race": some 19 per cent of US network connections are expected to be using LTE, a 4G technology, by the end of 2013 -- compared to fewer than 2 per cent in Europe, despite recent efforts by companies including Vodafone to boost investment there. (Wall Street Journal) North-west England could be sitting on a shale gas bonanza after a leading explorer vastly increased its estimate of the amount of gas lying in its licence area. IGas said that the region could contain between 15 and 172tn cubic feet, compared to a preliminary estimate of 9 tcf. (Financial Times) European Commission plans to centralise bank resolution powers could rankle with Germany. A draft "single resolution mechanism" identifies the Commission as the "best placed institution" to deal with failing lenders, including the ability to overrule national governments and to finance rescues from a fund backed by "assets of euro area banks". Germany has resisted Commission control over bank closures, arguing that it conflicts with EU treaties. (Financial Times) More on Japonica, the investor which announced a €2.9bn 'tender offer' for Greek bonds. The market shrugged off the proposal to buy the debt at a minimum 45 cents in the euro, a contrast with Japonica founder Paul Kazarian's past as an activist investor in US companies ranging from a maker of home appliances to an ice-cream giant. (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS - Janan Ganesh on UK austerity politics: "entire limbs of Leviathan are off-limits". (Financial Times) - Dani Rodrik analyses the Turkish protests -- and Erdogan's economic legacy. (Financial Times) - Reconstructing the London Whale trades. (Bloomberg) - The incredible endurance of the permanent contract, by Brian Groom. (Financial Times) - But Australia's resources boom starts shedding jobs... (Bloomberg) - How the world's No. 1 chess player is preparing for the most-anticipated match since the 1970s -- in Chennai, India. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +142.96 (+1.08%) at 13,404 Topix up +14.45 (+1.32%) at 1,111 Hang Seng down -65.19 (-0.29%) at 22,217 US markets S&P 500 up +9.68 (+0.59%) at 1,640 DJIA up +138.46 (+0.92%) at 15,254 Nasdaq up +9.46 (+0.27%) at 3,465 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -8.52 (-0.70%) at 1,207 FTSE100 down -57.97 (-0.88%) at 6,525 CAC 40 down -27.92 (-0.71%) at 3,920 Dax down -63.04 (-0.76%) at 8,285 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.61 (100.64) £/$ 1.53 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.26 at 101.80 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.43 at 93.02 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.70 at 1,411 Copper (Comex) unchanged at 3.33 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.12% UK 2.00% Germany 1.52% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe at 85.95bp Markit iTraxx Europe +4.8bps at 107.4bp Markit iTraxx Xover +17ps at 438.4bp Markit CDX IG -0.6bps at 78.5bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United States

Date: 03/06/2013

Time: 13:58 - 14:58

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the United States. Readings above 50 imply the economy is expanding, making investors understood it as a bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 points for an economic contraction, and weighs negatively on the currency.

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US FOMC Member Williams speech

Location: United States

Date: 03/06/2013

Time: 12:20 - 13:20

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: John C. Williams is the president of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 03/06/2013

Time: 9:28 - 10:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.8 / Consensus: 50.1

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 03/06/2013

Time: 8:53 - 9:53

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 48.1 / Consensus: 49.0

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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US Personal Spending

Location: United States

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.0%

Notes: Personal spending, released by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, measures purchases of goods and services by households and by nonprofit institutions that serve households from private business.

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US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.0%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

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US Personal Income (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

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EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

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EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �0.9B / Consensus: �0.9B

Notes: UK Net Lending to Individuals released by the Bank of England is a monthly measure of growth rates, amounts outstanding and changes in total lending to individuals, divided into lending secured on dwellings and consumer credit. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. A high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.

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UK Mortgage Approvals

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 53.504K / Consensus: 54.500K

Notes: The Mortgage Approvals released by the Bank of England presents the number of various Mortgage Approvals. It is considered as a leading indicator of the U.K. Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall U.K. economy. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive ( or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish )

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UK Consumer Credit

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 31/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �0.5B / Consensus: �0.4B

Notes: The Consumer Credit released by the Bank of England is an amount of money that individuals borrowed in the previous month. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

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