UK Bank of England Minutes

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

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UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-22 05:38:20 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks held gains, the Nikkei rose 1.1% and the MSCI rose 0.3%, headed for its highest close since June 2008. (Bloomberg) Bank of Japan maintains asset-buying programme: The May monetary policy statement made no mention of recent rises in JGB yields, and said its decision came amid signs of "positive movement" in the economy. (Financial Times)(Statement) Today: Bank of England MPC minutes; Bernanke's Congressional testimony; FOMC minutes published. FirstGroup, Cable&Wireless report full-year results. Hewlett-Packard Q2, first PC maker of season. Sony shares jumped as much as 12% on a report that its board may discuss spinning off its entertainment division. (Bloomberg) Japanese trade data disappoints. Exports rose in April by 3.8% compared to a year earlier, the second consecutive month of gains, but fell short of median forecasts of a 5.9% increase. Imports rose at a faster rate, 9.4%, and the trade deficit was Y879.9bn, the biggest since comparable records began in 1979. (Reuters) Dimon prevails on dual role: Just 32.2% of JP Morgan shareholders voted for a resolution to split the two positions of chairman and chief executive. Investors instead targeted their disapproval of the whale affair at the bank's independent directors in a vote against the re-election of Ellen Futter, David Cote and James Crown; they received 53.1%, 59.3% and 57.4% votes in favour of their positions, respectively. The bank's shares jumped 1.4% to a six-year high on news of the Dimon vote. (Wall Street Journal) Temasek raises stake in ICBC as Goldman exits. A purchase of ICBC shares yesterday raised Temasek's stake to 7.04% from 6.71%. The Singaporean state-owned investment company also bought a 10% stake in Markit yesterday. (Bloomberg) "Fiat Industrial aims to move its tax residency to the UK from Italy after a merger with US business CNH to take advantage of a lighter fiscal regime, according to a regulatory filing. The move is the latest blow to Italy wherethe new coalition government of Enrico Letta is seeking to staunch an outflow of investment." (Financial Times) Italy considers plan for older workers to 'handoff' to younger generations: Labor Minister Enrico Giovannini said that he planned to discuss the idea of allowing older workers to reduce their work hours while mentoring younger employees with union leaders, who so far have been strongly supportive. (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: The climate sceptics have already won. (Financial Times) - James Mackintosh: Dumb money is arriving, late, to Japanese party. (Financial Times) - Is Sony un-Japanese enough to change? (Reuters) - Steve Cohen fan doesn't care about any of this insider trading probe business. (Reuters) - SAP wants programmers with autism. (Financial Times) - Chris Giles: Scottish skirmishes use little-read economics reports as weapon of choice. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +178.96 (+1.16%) at 15,560 Topix up +8.25 (+0.65%) at 1,279 Hang Seng unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 23,366 US markets S&P 500 up +2.87 (+0.17%) at 1,669 DJIA up +52.30 (+0.34%) at 15,388 Nasdaq up +5.69 (+0.16%) at 3,502 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.13 (+0.09%) at 1,253 FTSE100 up +48.24 (+0.71%) at 6,804 CAC 40 up +13.33 (+0.33%) at 4,036 Dax up +16.37 (+0.19%) at 8,472 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.47 (102.46) £/$ 1.51 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.33 at 103.58 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.49 at 95.69 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,378 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 333.90 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.93% UK 1.91% Germany 1.39% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.08bps at 80.56bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.55bps at 91.84bp Markit iTraxx Xover +3.86bps at 384.09bp Markit CDX IG -0.88bps at 70.12bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK BOE Inflation Letter

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: BOE inflation letter is issued if the earlier-released CPI y/y is above 3.0% or below 1.0%. If CPI is not above 3.0% or below 1.0% this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the CPI release. Otherwise the Tentative mark will be discarded when the exact timing of the letter is known.

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UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 2.3%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

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UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 1.6%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.8% / Consensus: 2.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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DE Producer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.2% / Consensus: -0.1%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-21 05:45:06 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares retreated, the yen weakened and silver prices continued to slide as the BoJ begins its monthly two-day policy meeting today. The Nikkei rose 0.1% while the Hang Seng fell 0.5% and the Kospi was 0.1% higher. The yen weakened 0.3% to 102.54 per US dollar, and silver slipped 1.7% after a 2.5% rally yesterday. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) A major disaster has been declared in Oklahoma by US president Barack Obama who ordered federal aid be made available after a tornado devastated the town of Moore. At least 51 people were killed and damage is still being assessed. (Bloomberg) Congress accuses Apple of avoiding billions in tax: US congressional investigators on Monday accused Apple of avoiding paying billions in taxes around the world by exploiting loopholes and using Irish subsidiaries that are not tax residents of any country. The Senate permanent subcommittee on investigations released a 40-page report of a hearing on Tuesday, which said the company used technicalities in Irish and American tax law to pay virtually no corporate taxes on at least $74bn over the past four years. Apple denied entities were set up with the aim of avoiding taxes. Subcommittee staffers said Apple was not breaking any laws and had cooperated fully with the investigation.(Financial Times)(FT Alphaville)(Reuters) Qatar buying fresh stakes in key banks: "The Qatar Investment Authority, the principal fund responsible for allocating the gas-rich emirate's vast wealth, is poised this week to invest up to $1bn as part of a $3.2bn capital raising by VTB, Russia's second-biggest bank, according to people close to the transaction." Qatar was key among new investors in Deutsche Bank's €2.9bn capital raising three weeks ago, according to bankers, who said the state authority invested more than €100m. (Financial Times) Goldman Sachs is selling its remaining shares in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China for about $1.1bn. Goldman's sixth sale of the stock since 2009 completes its exit from ICBC, in which it bought a 4.9% stake for $2.58bn in 2006. The latest move brings the total raised from sales to about $10bn. The exit comes ahead of new capital regulations that raise the cost of holding stakes in other financial companies. (Wall Street Journal) Riverstone leads talks of $1bn commodities venture: "US private equity group Riverstone is leading talks on an investment of as much as $1bn in a new commodities investment venture to be run by a former Deutsche Bank executive who aims to plug a funding gap left by the banks." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Japan's brokerages look abroad, despite boom at home. (Wall Street Journal) - Analysis: European Tobin tax plans likely to be diluted. (Financial Times) - Patrick Jenkins: The time to fix European banking is now. (Financial Times) - Coal's 'new normal': $100/tonne, half 2008 peak. (Bloomberg) - The 'big data' risk to financial markets. (Financial Times) - ENRC: Minorities deserve more - Lex. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: QUIET Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -2.72 (-0.02%) at 15,358 Topix down -0.06 (0.00%) at 1,269 Hang Seng down -117.49 (-0.50%) at 23,376 US markets S&P 500 down -1.18 (-0.07%) at 1,666 DJIA down -19.12 (-0.12%) at 15,335 Nasdaq down -2.54 (-0.07%) at 3,496 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +3.91 (+0.31%) at 1,252 FTSE100 up +32.57 (+0.48%) at 6,756 CAC 40 up +21.58 (+0.54%) at 4,023 Dax up +57.83 (+0.69%) at 8,456 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.52 (102.26) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.11 at 104.91 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.04 at 96.75 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +3.20 at 1,388 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 335.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.96% UK 1.93% Germany 1.38% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -6.1bps at 82.64bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.03bps at 90.29bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.45bps at 380.23bp Markit CDX IG +0.67bps at 71bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Location: United States

Date: 20/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.23

Notes: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-20 05:47:39 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares rose, led by Japanese markets driven higher by US consumer sentiment data and a newspaper report that Tokyo Electric Power would restart its nuclear reactors. The MSCI Asia Pacific was up 1.3%. (Bloomberg) The yen gained as much as 1.1%, retreating from multi-year weakness after Japan's economy minister Akira Amari said further losses in the currency would threaten to negatively affect people and the government's job is to minimise that. Traders said Amari's comments raised the spectre that most of the yen weakening may have already occurred. (Bloomberg) Yahoo buys Tumblr for $1bn: Sources indicated the acquisition has been agreed, with reports putting the price at $1bn - $1.1bn in cash. The move represents the first big bet by Yahoo's new CEO Marissa Meyer. Tumblr has 100m users but very little revenue. But the price may be disappointing to early Tumblr investors; at its last round of fundraising, in September 2011, it was valued at $800m. (Wall Street Journal#END

UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/05/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 19/05/2013

Time: 16:00 - 17:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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US CB Leading Indicator (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 17/05/2013

Time: 16:00 - 17:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Leading Indicators released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It is considered as a measure for economic stability in United States. This event generates some volatility for the USD. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-17 05:46:09 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks were mixed with Japanese benchmarks slightly higher but many other regional stocks fell amid profit warnings and US jobless claims and housing data. The Nikkei and the Topix were both slightly higher but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.1% lower. Hong Kong and Korean markets were both closed for a holiday. (Bloomberg) "George Osborne's attempt to slash £11.5bn off public spending in election year has run into cabinet trouble, after ministers identified only £2.5bn in cuts to their budgets. Some ministers failed to provide Mr Osborne with the list of 10 per cent in proposed departmental cuts he ordered before last month's deadline. One said the chancellor was "asking too much"." (Financial Times) Singapore Airlines shares slump on loss: Shares fell as much as 4.4%, the most in more than 1 1/2 years, in Singapore trading after lower passenger and cargo fares pushed the company into a wider fourth-quarter operating loss. (Bloomberg) Dell earnings miss: The third-largest PC maker by shipments on Thursday reported $14.1bn in first-quarter revenues, ahead of analyst expectations of $13.5bn, but down from $14.4bn a year ago. Net income, excluding extraordinary items, was $372m, or 21 cents per share, well below Wall Street's estimates of 34 cents, and down 51 per cent on $761m, or 43 cents per share, recorded the same quarter a year ago. (Financial Times) Europe bank stress tests delayed, but will be tougher. The next round of stress tests will be delayed until next year, after the Single Supervisory Mechanism is set up. The EBA says the tests will include an "asset quality review" that will look more closely at risk-weighting and forebearance. (FT Alphaville)(Financial Times) Bolland's M&S bonus at risk again: The retailer is expected to announce a fall in underlying pre-tax profit from £706m to about £665m in the year to March 31, when it reports annual results next week. Consensus expectations have come down from about £710m at the start of the financial year. The performance could its toll on chief executive Marc Bolland's bonus for the third year running. (Financial Times) The BoJ is expected to stand pat on monetary policy at its monthly policy meeting next week, despite jitters over the recent jump in bond yields. (Reuters) Bank of England has queried IMF calculations used to estimate potential losses from easing. Relations between the IMF and the UK have soured since the fund suggested last month that chancellor George Osborne should show more flexibility in deficit reduction. Ahead of a final IMF recommendation on the UK economy due next week, the BoE yesterday objected to calculations showing monetary easing losses could reach 6% of British GDP. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: Gillian Tett: No-one should feel complacent in this phony QE peace. (Financial Times) - Bill Gates is the world's richest man now. (Bloomberg) - Gold's allure is fading as ETF sales outweigh physical purchases. (Wall Street Journal) - And gold bears are happy! (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +53.61 (+0.36%) at 15,091 Topix up +6.96 (+0.56%) at 1,252 US markets S&P 500 down -8.31 (-0.50%) at 1,650 DJIA down -42.47 (-0.28%) at 15,233 Nasdaq down -6.38 (-0.18%) at 3,465 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.21 (-0.02%) at 1,245 FTSE100 down -5.75 (-0.09%) at 6,688 CAC 40 down -3.16 (-0.08%) at 3,979 Dax up +7.45 (+0.09%) at 8,370 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.30 (102.21) £/$ 1.52 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.26 at 103.52 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.21 at 94.95 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -6.40 at 1,381 Copper (Comex) down -0.70 at 328.50 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.88% UK 1.87% Germany 1.33% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.27bps at 89.12bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.4bps at 93.79bp Markit iTraxx Xover +2.66bps at 388.39bp Markit CDX IG -0.09bps at 71.54bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US FOMC Member Williams speech

Location: United States

Date: 16/05/2013

Time: 20:05 - 21:05

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: John C. Williams is the president of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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