DE Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)

Location: Germany

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.6% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-15 05:44:14 by Kate Mackenzie Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed above 15,000 for the first time since January 2008. The benchmark index reached as high as 15,109 and was up more than 2%. The Hang Seng rose 0.5% and the Kospi was flat. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.8% and the yen weakened to 102.4 per dollar, the lowest since October 2008. (Bloomberg) Today: Euro area GDP is due at 10am BST. HSBC said it will target $2bn to $3bn of additional cost savings. The bank has sold or closed 52 businesses and announced 46,000 job cuts to eliminate $4bn of annual costs since CEO Stuart Gulliver took up the role in 2011. (Bloomberg) Sinopec issues jumbo $3.5bn bond, Asia's biggest in a decade: "The offering pushed the value of bonds issued this year in Asia, excluding Japan, in either U.S. dollars, euros or yen to US$59.91 billion, according to data provider Dealogic." (Wall Street Journal) China is forecast to surpass the US as the world's largest corporate debt market for non-financial companies in the next two years, according to a report from Standard & Poor's. (Financial Times) JC Flowers buys UK's biggest debt collector, Cabot. "The deal is expected to value Cabot Credit Management at about £800m including debt, according to people familiar with the asset." It will be Christopher Flowers' biggest ever deal in the UK. (Financial Times) "Some of JPMorgan Chase's largest shareholders are sparing Jamie Dimon but voting against other directors in a contentious ballot on the board of the largest US bank, according to people familiar with the matter." The vote next Tuesday could leave in doubt the position of directors such as Ellen Futter, a lightning rod for corporate governance activists. (Financial Times) Three Chinese airlines cancelled some domestic flights after receiving threats. Shenzhen Airlines cancelled and aborted a total of three flights after receiving threats about them, and Juneyao Airlines also turned back a flight after receiving a threat. China Eastern also received threats about flights, according to a state broadcaster. (Bloomberg) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Why the world faces climate chaos. (Financial Times) - Loeb ventures into Japan, where many activist investors have failed. (Financial Times) - Matthew Klein: How can we tell if Abenomics is working? (Bloomberg) - Hedge funds, including Paulson & Co, are betting on a Fannie and Freddie rise. (Wall Street Journal) - Insurers stray from conservative line on climate change. (New York Times) - Private equity focus shifts as buyout returns become more difficult. (Wall Street Journal) - Lloyd Blankfein is advising Jamie Dimon in a role reversal. (NYT Dealbook) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +272.90 (+1.85%) at 15,031 Topix up +21.18 (+1.72%) at 1,252 Hang Seng up +115.97 (+0.51%) at 23,046 US markets S&P 500 up +16.57 (+1.01%) at 1,650 DJIA up +123.57 (+0.82%) at 15,215 Nasdaq up +23.82 (+0.69%) at 3,463 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +5.57 (+0.45%) at 1,237 FTSE100 up +54.30 (+0.82%) at 6,686 CAC 40 up +20.86 (+0.53%) at 3,966 Dax up +59.82 (+0.72%) at 8,339 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.13 (102.38) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.08 at 102.68 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.08 at 94.29 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +0.50 at 1,425 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 329.05 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.98% UK 1.91% Germany 1.39% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.14bps at 89.45bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.82bps at 96bp Markit iTraxx Xover -8.2bps at 388bp Markit CDX IG -0.73bps at 72.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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EMU Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -3.1% / Consensus: -2.2%

Notes: The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).

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DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 36.3 / Consensus: 38.3

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 9.2 / Consensus: 10.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.4% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: -0.5%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 14/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: -0.5%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-14 05:46:45 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares rose for a second day and the yen strengthened slightly, after better than expected US retail sales. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was 0.2% higher as gains were limited by fears that positive data may lead the Fed to scale back its bond-buying. The Nikkei was 0.13% higher. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) Regulator queries 1m swaps transactions: The CFTC has issued a "special call" asking Wall Street banks, commodities traders and hedge funds to provide documents that would prove recent derivatives transactions known as "exchanges of futures for swaps" were legal. Lawyers at the CFTC enforcement division are also scrutinising the trades for possible violations. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Citi are among the banks that received requests, which cover EFS executed following the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law in 2010 until this year, people familiar with the inquiry said. EFS are two-step transactions used for commodity deals, often in illiquid markets. (Financial Times) Help to Buy scheme already appears to be boosting UK housing: The scheme, announced in the Budget in March, has helped raise inquiries by new buyers to their highest level since November 2009, according to a Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors poll. Twenty-five per cent more chartered surveyors recorded an increase in demand for property than a fall in April, up from 13 per cent in March, Rics said on Tuesday. (Financial Times) Big European clothing retailers signed garment factory safety agreement, US peers less keen: H&M, Inditex and Tesco signed the five-year legally bindin accord designed to improve safety conditions in Bangladesh's garment factories after a building collapse last month killed at least 1,127 workers. But major US retailers including Wal-Mart, Sears, and JC Penney have so far demured, while Gap said it wouldn't sign the agreement in its current form. (Wall Street Journal) France is preparing to tax smartphones, tablets and all other internet-linked devices to help fund the production of French art, films and music. (Financial Times) Glass Lewis recommends against Goldman compensation: The investor advisory cited a "disconnect between pay and performance" in its recommendation that shareholders vote against the executive compensation plan and the re-election of James Johnson, head of the board's compensation committee and former chief executive of US mortgage giant Fannie Mae. (Financial Times) Fitch questions Seagram Building bond ratings: Fitch Ratings, which was frozen out of the deal, has criticised a securitisation backed by the Seagram Building located at 375 Park Avenue, home to the Four Seasons restaurant, after digging into the details of the underlying mortgage on the property. The top tranche of the $440m of bonds, marketed by Citi, are rated triple A by Moody's and Kroll Bond Ratings, but Fitch says the tranche should be no higher than single A based on its assessment of future rental income. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - RBS and Lloyds are slowing Britain's economic recovery. (Wall Street Journal) - Andrew Ross Sorkin (ft. Hank Paulson) makes the case for Jamie Dimon retaining dual role. (NYT Dealbook) - Hedge funds that were once bearish on the euro have turned bullish. (Financial Times) - Saudis welcome US shale as locking in a future for oil. (Financial Times) - Japan, China and South Korea vie to take advantage of melting Arctic ice. (Bloomberg) - 'Zombie-like' Lehman seeks millions from retirement homes, hospitals and colleges. (Bloomberg) - James Mackintosh: Beware the biotechs stock boom. (Financial Times) - Selling the Australian dollar, buying the Mexican peso to trade China slowdown. (Wall Street Journal) - Emerging markets turn sour for global banks. (Financial Times) - Richard Bernstein: Smaller, domestically-focused US companies are outperforming. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP SLIGHTLY Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +19.04 (+0.13%) at 14,801 Topix up +0.79 (+0.06%) at 1,233 Hang Seng down -28.13 (-0.12%) at 22,962 US markets S&P 500 up +0.07 (0.00%) at 1,634 DJIA down -26.81 (-0.18%) at 15,092 Nasdaq up +2.21 (+0.06%) at 3,439 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -2.44 (-0.20%) at 1,231 FTSE100 up +6.78 (+0.10%) at 6,632 CAC 40 down -8.63 (-0.22%) at 3,945 Dax up +0.70 (+0.01%) at 8,279 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 101.60 (101.77) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.03 at 102.85 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.19 at 95.36 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +4.40 at 1,439 Copper (Comex) down -2.95 at 333.25 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.91% UK 1.90% Germany 1.36% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.3bps at 89.59bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.96bps at 96.82bp Markit iTraxx Xover +13.5bps at 396.2bp Markit CDX IG +1.46bps at 73.48bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK RICS Housing Price Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 13/05/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1% / Consensus: 2%

Notes: The RICS Housing Price Balance survey released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors presents housing costs in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole, as the housing market is sensitive to the business cycle. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 13/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.4% / Consensus: -0.1%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex Autos released by the US Census Bureau is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. This report is the "advance report, which can be revised fairly significantly after the final numbers are calculated. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the USD.

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US Retail Sales (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 13/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.4% / Consensus: -0.2%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Monthly Budget Statement

Location: United States

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -106.5B / Consensus: 106.5B

Notes: The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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UK Goods Trade Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -�9.416B / Consensus: -�9.000B

Notes: The trade balance released by the is a balance between exports and imports of goods A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP. If a steady demand in exchange for UK exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the GBP.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with UK Trade Balance

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DE Trade Balance s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �17.1B / Consensus: �16.5B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-10 05:47:26 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks were higher, particularly in Japan where the Nikkei soared nearly 3% and the Topix headed for a new multi-year high as the yen weakened beyond 100 per dollar. Most other Asian benchmarks were weaker with the Hang Seng falling 0.1% and the Kospi down 1.3%, while the ASX rose 0.4%. (Bloomberg) Yen weakens further beyond 100: The currency touched 101.2 against the dollar in Tokyo morning trade, its weakest level since April 6, 2009. Meanwhile current account data published today shows Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds in the past two weeks, after six straight weeks of sales. Such moves will be a key determinant of the yen's future direction. The current account surplus for March was Y1.25tn, the highest in a year, boosted by repatriated earnings. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) ENRC blasted in Kofi Annan report for costing Congo $725m: Deals cut by the FTSE 100 miner are lambasted for "opaque concession trading" in a report to be published today by the Africa Progress Panel, chaired by Kofi Annan. The report calculates that the Democratic Republic of Congo incurred losses of $1.36bn between 2010 and 2012 as a result of the alleged undervaluation of state assets in five mining deals, three of which involve ENRC. (Financial Times) Hester wants to lead RBS to reprivatisation: The bank's CEO signals determination to lead the sell-off, saying he does not regard his job as "time limited by me". Stephen Hester also said the government had been "Overwhelmingly... very good at treading the balance," in contrast to the fractiousness of a few months ago when RBS management was clearly furious at the government's level of interference in its operations. (Financial Times) UK accounting watchdog has launched two KPMG probes: "The Financial Reporting Council said on Thursday it was investigating whether KPMG was independent when it audited car dealer Pendragon's financial statements for 2010 and 2011 as well as looking into a "non-timely disposal of a shareholding" in a client by a KPMG member." It also faces a possible government inquiry over its HBOS audits. (Financial Times) Vietnam said it would cut interest rates to boost economic growth. The central bank will cutthe refinancing rate to 7% from 85 effective May 13, and the discount rate will be reduced to 5% from 6%. (Bloomberg) Schäuble warns of central bank stimulus risks: "German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on Thursday said the wave of stimulus provided by central banks around the world is causing "critical problems," as it may prompt investors to make bad decisions." (Wall Street Journal) Cameron seeks to reassure investors on EU membership: "David Cameron sought to reassure international investors that Britain's future lay within the European Union on Thursday, denouncing as "pessimists" those in his party demanding an immediate exit." (Financial Times) MPs back third Heathrow runway: "The Commons transport select committee rejected the case for a new hub airport in the Thames estuary – as promoted by Boris Johnson, London's mayor – and instead recommended that Heathrow should get a third and possibly a fourth runway." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gillian Tett: US household debt-to-income ratios are now below Europe's. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: The time for UK's decision on EU is now, not 2017. (Financial Times) - Greece and Portugal make bailout progress but unemployment rises. (Wall Street Journal) - Swiss watch sales suffering from China graft crackdown. (Bloomberg) - Lots of central bank cuts, but still not much growth. (Bloomberg) - Who could really watch over Jamie Dimon? (Financial Times) - The trouble with Jens Weidmann. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP (IN JAPAN) Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +419.74 (+2.96%) at 14,611 Topix up +27.73 (+2.35%) at 1,210 Hang Seng down -39.28 (-0.17%) at 23,172 US markets S&P 500 down -6.02 (-0.37%) at 1,627 DJIA down -22.50 (-0.15%) at 15,083 Nasdaq down -4.10 (-0.12%) at 3,409 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.28 (-0.02%) at 1,229 FTSE100 up +9.26 (+0.14%) at 6,593 CAC 40 down -27.70 (-0.70%) at 3,929 Dax up +12.84 (+0.16%) at 8,263 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 100.93 (100.59) £/$ 1.54 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.20 at 104.27 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.25 at 96.14 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -12.10 at 1,457 Copper (Comex) down -0.70 at 333.45 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.84% UK 1.80% Germany 1.27% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.53bps at 90.02bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.11bps at 92.86bp Markit iTraxx Xover +4.61bps at 379.09bp Markit CDX IG +2.11bps at 70.95bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 09/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 324K / Consensus: 335K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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