The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-26 05:47:01 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks were mostly higher, the yen was poised for its first weekly gain in four weeks and the NZ dollar was higher on trade surplus figures. Investors are looking to the Bank of Japan's forecasts of inflation and GDP today, from its first meeting since announcing a big stimulus programme, and US Q1 GDP data is also due later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% higher and the Nikkei rose 0.2%. (Bloomberg) Samsung Electronics' Q1 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, but its shares slipped as the world's biggest technology group by sales reiterated its cautious outlook for the global smartphone market. Despite heavy spending on marketing, it gave a restrained forecast for its performance in smartphones. It said it expects sales to stay flat in the second quarter but to pick up in the second half of the year, while alluding to a growing competitive threat from low-cost Chinese manufacturers. (Financial Times) Japanese consumer prices fell the most in two years in March. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.5% from a year earlier, compared to economists' consensus expectations of 0.4%. (Bloomberg) Merkel's interest rate comments highlight European divide: Germany in isolation probably needed higher interest rates, Angela Merkel said, in an unusual intervention just a week before many expect the ECB to cut its main interest rate. German officials normally avoid talking about interest-rate decisions to avoid the appearance of interfering with the ECB's independence. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Spain expected to turn away from austerity: Mariano Rajoy's government is expected to lay out an agenda that tilts away from austerity, with less-stringent deficit targets and more emphasis on spurring growth." (Wall Street Journal) ADM to buy GrainCorp for A$3bn: GrainCorp, the largest crop handler in eastern Australia, has agreed to a sweetened A$3bn (U$3.1bn) takeover offer from US-based Archer Daniels Midland after a six-month courtship. News of the deal sent GrainCorp shares to a record high in Sydney on Friday. The latest offer was the third since ADM's initial approach in October last year. (Financial Times) CBOE outage lasts several hours: "A software glitch knocked out trading on the largest US options exchange for more than three hours Thursday, raising fresh questions about the reliability of critical elements of the financial market." (Wall Street Journal) SFO launches criminal probe into ENRC: The announcement came days after founding shareholders said they were weighing up plans to take the Kazakh-based miner private. "People familiar with the investigation told the Financial Times that the agency had first begun an official probe into ENRC before its potential restructuring was announced last week." Two internal investigations were already under way after whistleblower allegations about assets in Kazakhstan and Africa. (Financial Times) Some US banks support Europeans against capital rules: European banks have won support from some US rivals, including JP Morgan, in fighting the Fed's proposal to force US subsidiaries of large foreign banks to hold more capital. However Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have told US officials that they support the moves, despite concerns about a breakdown in regulatory harmony. (Financial Times) US regulators want swift replacement of Libor: Regulators including the Fed and the Treasury said on Thursday that alternative rates "anchored in observable transactions" should be identified "promptly" by international officials and market participants. (Financial Times) Research suggests Google searches predict markets: People do more searches on terms such as "stocks", "portfolio" and "economics" when they are worried about the state of the markets. (Financial Times)(Paper) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Philip Stephens: This is a chance to rethink austerity orthodoxy. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: The pros and cons of a floating currency. (Financial Times) - Japan's investment banks are among the first and biggest Abenomics beneficiaries. (Bloomberg) - What Apple could learn from Warren Buffett. (Bloomberg) - Video: Draghi not such a rock star after all. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +27.40 (+0.20%) at 13,953 Topix down -4.89 (-0.42%) at 1,168 Hang Seng up +197.80 (+0.88%) at 22,599 US markets S&P 500 up +0.01 (0.00%) at 1,579 DJIA up +24.50 (+0.17%) at 14,701 Nasdaq unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 3,290 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.82 (+0.74%) at 1,201 FTSE100 up +10.83 (+0.17%) at 6,443 CAC 40 down -2.47 (-0.06%) at 3,840 Dax up +73.83 (+0.95%) at 7,833 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.12 (99.25) £/$ 1.55 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.46 at 102.95 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.46 at 93.18 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +9.60 at 1,471 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 323.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.71% UK 1.74% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.61bps at 96.43bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.77bps at 105.51bp Markit iTraxx Xover -3.88bps at 428.11bp Markit CDX IG -1.02bps at 79bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 352K / Consensus: 351K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.3% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-25 05:48:45 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares were broadly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 0.3%. The Nikkei rose 0.4% and the Hang Seng was 1% higher. (Bloomberg) Italy's new prime minister lost no time in calling for an easing of austerity policies. Enrico Letta, a veteran centre-left politician, outlined a programme of institutional reforms and measures to create employment, saying that "Europe's policy of austerity is no longer sufficient". (Financial Times) Buy-to-let landlords could be the biggest FLS beneficiaries, after the BoE gave the go-ahead yesterday for banks tapping its new funding mechanism for small- and medium-sized businesses to be allowed to lend the money on to property investors. Buy-to-let borrowing costs have already fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August. (Financial Times) Merkel faces austerity politics squeeze: "In the campaign for September's parliamentary poll, Ms Merkel risks being squeezed between the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), calling for more emphasis to be put on growth, and a new anti-euro party campaigning for the return of the Deutschemark." (Financial Times) Verizon considers $100bn bid for Verizon Wireless control: "Verizon Communications has hired advisers to prepare a possible $100 billion cash and stock bid to take full control of Verizon Wireless from joint venture partner Vodafone Group Plc, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday." (Reuters) Evonik will be biggest German public listing since 2007: Europe's biggest public listing of the year will take place on Thursday when a German chemicals company makes its trading debut in Frankfurt, valuing it at nearly €15bn. (Financial Times) South Korean Q1 GDP beats: South Korea's economy grew at 0.9% in Q1, the fastest quarterly pace for two years and a rate that beat economists' expectations of 0.7%. The growth was boosted by recovering exports and facilities investment. (Financial Times) Pressure is mounting on the ECB to cut interest rates next week, after Germany's poor Ifo business confidence survey yesterday. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) "Samsung Electronics said demand for its flagship Galaxy S4 device is stronger than expected after two top US wireless carriers pushed back their release dates, citing shipment delays. "Pre-order demand is much stronger than expected, so it's difficult to rapidly boost supply in the short term," Lee Don Joo, president of the strategic marketing office at Samsung's mobile business, said today during a company event in Seoul."" (Bloomberg) European businesses tackle US banks over OTC derivatives spat: The European Association of Corporate Treasurers, which convinced the EU to exempt OTC derivatives sold to corporates from an onerous Basel III capital charge, has accused JP Morgan and other US banks of not putting their own customers' interests first. The European treasurers' group wrote to JPM raising questions about its "concern for its corporate customers globally" because of its lobbying against the concession, but the bank responded that it was seeking a worldwide reduction in the charges. (Financial Times) US bill for 15% 'megabank' capital requirements unveiled: Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat from Ohio, and David Vitter, a conservative Republican from Louisiana, proposed new legislation that would require banks with more than $500bn in assets to meet a new capital requirement of 15%, while midsized and regional lenders would need to hold 8%. The bill is being closely watched on Wall Street, even though it is unclear whether or how far it will advance in Congress. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Janet Yellen's admirers and foes. (New York Times) - Opec seems okay with sub-$100 oil for now. (Financial Times) - How long can peripheral bonds defy gravity? (Wall Street Journal) - Young, unskilled and unemployed in Spain. (Financial Times) - The problem of extroverts in finance. (Financial Times) - Greece is reviving pursuit of WWII reparations from Germany. (Wall Street Journal) - Olam is surviving Muddy Waters' criticism. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MOSTLY UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +60.14 (+0.43%) at 13,904 Topix up +5.01 (+0.43%) at 1,169 Hang Seng up +246.54 (+1.11%) at 22,430 US markets S&P 500 up +0.01 (0.00%) at 1,579 DJIA down -43.16 (-0.29%) at 14,676 Nasdaq up +0.32 (+0.01%) at 3,270 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.79 (+0.74%) at 1,192 FTSE100 up +25.64 (+0.40%) at 6,432 CAC 40 up +59.89 (+1.58%) at 3,843 Dax up +100.82 (+1.32%) at 7,759 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.39 (99.47) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.42 at 102.15 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.41 at 91.84 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +17.70 at 1,441 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 315.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.71% UK 1.71% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.24bps at 95.82bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.19bps at 106.28bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.76bps at 431.99bp Markit CDX IG -0.74bps at 80.02bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Location: United States

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

#END

US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 5.7% / Consensus: -2.8%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

#END

UK BBA Mortgage Approvals

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 30.5K / Consensus: 31.2K

Notes: The Mortgage Approvals published by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) measure the number of home loans issued by the BBA during the previous quarter. It is considered as a leading indicator of the UK Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall UK economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish)

#END

DE IFO - Business Climate

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 106.7 / Consensus: 106.2

Notes: This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Current Assessment

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 109.9 / Consensus: 109.5

Notes: The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Expectations

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 103.6 / Consensus: 103.0

Notes: The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-24 05:42:24 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose as the yen weakened against the dollar, and after positive US earnings news. The Nikkei was up 1.7%, the Hang Seng 1.3% and the Kospi rose 1%. The yen fell to as low as 99.77 against the dollar, before rebounding to 99.30. (Bloomberg)(Reuters) Lloyds branch sale to Co-op collapses: The planned sale of more than 600 branches to the Co-operative Group has collapsed after the Co-op concluded yesterday it could not proceed with the deal. It means Lloyds will have to revive a "plan B" to float the branch network as a freestanding business, and bankers are sceptical that process could be initiated, let alone completed, by the end of the year -- which is its deadline imposed by Brussels. The Co-op board's decision yesterday to pull the plug on the deal are not yet clear. (Financial Times) Gold rose today after yesterday recording its biggest fall in a week, with the gains attributed to rising physical purchases. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.9% to $1,426.08 an ounce after falling 0.9% yesterday. (Bloomberg) Italian prime minister set to be announced: After a long day of talks yesterday, President Giorgio Napolitano was expected to nominate a prime minister today. Giuliano Amato, a former socialist prime minister, was widely tipped although the mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi and centre-left deputy leader Enrico Letta have also emerged as possible candidates. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Portugal announces ambitious stimulus measures: "Economy Minister Álvaro Santos Pereira said the government will aim to cut the corporate tax rate, provide incentives for foreign companies to move to Portugal, tackle a highly bureaucratic system that hurts investments and offer financing for small- and medium-size enterprises at attractive terms." There were no figures attached to the plan, some of which may require approval from international creditors. (Wall Street Journal) ENRC chairman resigns: "The chairman brought in to clean up the controversial FTSE 100 miner Eurasian Natural Resources Corp, resigned on Tuesday, in the latest stark illustration of the difficulty of grafting City governance standards on to mining groups with powerful Asian shareholders." (Financial Times) British food stamp recipient numbers double: New data released today by the Trussell Trust, the biggest food bank operator, says annual referrals jumped to 350,000, from 130,000 a year earlier. (Financial Times) US sues Novartis, alleging kickbacks: "The U.S. government filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Novartis AG on Tuesday, accusing a unit of the Swiss drug maker of causing the Medicare and Medicaid programs to pay tens of millions of dollars in reimbursements based on fraudulent, kickback-tainted claims." (Reuters) Accor chief ousted: Denis Hennequin, chairman and chief executive of Europe's largest hotel group by rooms, was ousted. The board said Hennequin's strategy "was the right one" but made clear the results were not coming through fast enough. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What Merkel did in eurozone's most desperate moments. (Wall Street Journal) - Martin Wolf agrees with Reinhart-Rogoff critics; not too late to reconsider austerity blunders. (Financial Times) - Einhorn likes Apple's big payout. (NYT Dealbook) - Shale gas develop 'much slower' outside of the US, says Shell. (Financial Times) - The Libor vaccuum. (Financial Times) - Blackberry diehards get their keyboard back. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +225.21 (+1.66%) at 13,755 Topix up +11.11 (+0.97%) at 1,155 Hang Seng up +282.34 (+1.29%) at 22,089 US markets S&P 500 up +16.28 (+1.04%) at 1,579 DJIA up +152.29 (+1.05%) at 14,719 Nasdaq up +35.78 (+1.11%) at 3,269 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +28.03 (+2.43%) at 1,183 FTSE100 up +125.50 (+2.00%) at 6,406 CAC 40 up +130.92 (+3.58%) at 3,783 Dax up +180.10 (+2.41%) at 7,658 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.40 (99.46) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.27 at 100.58 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.37 at 89.55 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +11.80 at 1,420 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 309.40 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.71% Germany 1.26% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.45bps at 95.58bp Markit iTraxx Europe -3.58bps at 107.47bp Markit iTraxx Xover -16.35bps at 433.75bp Markit CDX IG -2.99bps at 80.76bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United States

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 13:58 - 14:58

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 54.6

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the United States. Readings above 50 imply the economy is expanding, making investors understood it as a bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 points for an economic contraction, and weighs negatively on the currency.

#END

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �4.356B / Consensus: �14.100B

Notes: The Net Borrowing released by the National Statistics captures an amount of new debt held by the U.K. governments (the financial deficit in the UK national accounts). Generally speaking, if the Net Borrowing is negative, it means the UK Accounts are surplus, and that should be positive for the GBP. While a deficit is generally unfavorable for the economy, a growth in the Net Borrowing is considered as negative, or bearish for the GBP.

#END

DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 50.9 / Consensus: 51.0

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

#END

DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.0 / Consensus: 48.9

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-23 05:48:09 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell, erasing earlier gains, on fears about China's manufacturing sector growth after flash PMIs were published. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% lower and the yen rose slightly. The Nikkei was 0.2% lower and the Hang Seng fell 1.2%. (Bloomberg) China's flash PMIs fell in April: China's manufacturing sector expansion appears to be slowing this month, as preliminary HSBC/Markit PMI was 50.5 for April, compared to 51.6 in March and below the 51.5 consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This month's survey was being watched particularly closely for signs of Q2 economic momentum, after the Q1 GDP growth reported last week missed expectations. (Bloomberg) S&P says there's a more than 1-in-3 chance it will downgrade Japan because of risks and uncertainties about how 'Abenomics' policies will work. The country's long-term debt is rated AA- by S&P. (Reuters)(Statement) Europe may have hit the political limits of how far it can go with austerity policies because of the growing opposition in the eurozone's recession-hit periphery, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said on Monday. While such policies were "fundamentally right", they may have reached a limit of social and political acceptance. (Financial Times)(Reuters) EU warns on 'protectionist' US bank capital plans: Plans to force foreign banks operating in the US to hold more capital are a threat to harmonious global regulation and risk "a protectionist reaction", the EU commissioner in charge of financial services, Michael Barnier, warned in a letter to Ben Bernanke. The Fed responded by defending the "targeted adjustments" for foreign banks, saying they stemmed from those banks having had "significantly greater reliance on potentially unstable, short-term wholesale funding". (Financial Times) Libor 'unsustainble', says CFTC chair: "Gary Gensler, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told the Financial Times that Libor replacements were needed "to restore market integrity and promote financial stability"." (Financial Times) Walmart directors working on the retailer's investigation into bribery allegations in Mexico had their cash pay doubled to at least $120,000 last year because of the extra work. Four members of the retailer's audit committee received an extra $60,000 last year, on top of $60,000 in retainers and equity awards worth $175,000. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - How much will a weak yen really help today's Japanese economy? (Financial Times) - Asian banks offer perks to private banks whose clients buy their bonds. (Bloomberg) - Just 22 companies account for half of all cash held by non-financial S&P 500 firms. (Wall Street Journal) - Apple under pressure on products. (Financial Times) - Italian bonds strengthened on president news. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -26.90 (-0.20%) at 13,541 Topix up +0.32 (+0.03%) at 1,146 Hang Seng down -270.65 (-1.23%) at 21,774 US markets S&P 500 up +7.25 (+0.47%) at 1,563 DJIA up +19.66 (+0.14%) at 14,567 Nasdaq up +27.49 (+0.86%) at 3,234 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.81 (+0.16%) at 1,155 FTSE100 down -5.97 (-0.09%) at 6,281 CAC 40 up +0.17 (0.00%) at 3,652 Dax up +18.15 (+0.24%) at 7,478 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.31) $/¥ 98.57 (99.21) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.63 at 99.76 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.51 at 88.68 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +24.30 at 1,424 Copper (Comex) down -0.50 at 312.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.69% UK 1.67% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.96bps at 98.03bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.44bps at 111.05bp Markit iTraxx Xover -7.94bps at 450.1bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 83.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Location: United States

Date: 22/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.44

Notes: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-22 05:47:46 by Kate Mackenzie Asian markets rose, led by strong performance by Japanese exporters' shares as the yen weakened against the dollar. The Nikkei was 2.1% higher and the Hang Seng was little changed while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.4% after the earthquake in Sichuan province which killed at least 188 people. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.6%. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) The US economy will officially become 3% bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties, R&D spending, and other intangible assets. A BEA official said it would be the biggest change since computer software was included in GDP in 1999. The impact . (Financial Times) Italian president Giorgio Napolitano was re-elected on Saturday and is expected to propose a a bipartisan cabinet supported by the two main, centre-left and centre-right forces, as had been anticipated after the national elections two months ago which resulted in a deadlock. Meanwhile Giorgio Squinzi, head of the country's main business lobby Confindustria, urged politicians to form a coalition government or risk condemning the country to a prolonged recession. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Banks have put a damper on George Osborne's hopes that an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme will spark a rush of credit to small and medium-sized companies as the chancellor finalises plans to revamp the programme. An extension of the scheme will be announced within the next two weeks, which banks welcomed but warned would be insufficient, on its own, to clear the credit bottleneck. (Financial Times) BaFin puts Reits in turmoil: The German financial regulator has proposed that German Reits should be regulated as investment funds under the EU's Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive, due to come into effect in July. This would bar many equity funds from investing in Reits and deter investments from countries such as China. (Financial Times) China's slower Q1 growth is a 'normal' effect of structural reforms, PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. "China's undergoing economic restructuring, which sometimes is not in lockstep with growth," he told reporters on Saturday after the G20 meeting. "We need to sacrifice short-term growth for the purposes of reforms and structural adjustments." (Bloomberg) Three more executives leave ENRC: Three senior executives have resigned and a fourth has taken leave of absence from the Kazakh mining group that controlling shareholders are considering removing from the FTSE 100 via a buyout. The departures come ahead of a board meeting on Tuesday where sharp divisions are expected to emerge between members associated with controlling shareholders and directors independent of them. (Financial Times) G4S to quit key Israel contracts amid protests: "G4S, the world's biggest security company by revenues, has confirmed it is planning to quit key contracts in Israel amid protests against its involvement in settlements within occupied Palestinian territories." (Financial Times) Audit regulator calls for end to anonymity: James Doty, head of the US audit regulator PCAOB, has made a fresh call for senior auditors to be stripped of their anonymity as details continued to emerge from the KPMG insider trading scandal. "Investors really want this. They don't see why they shouldn't have it," he told the FT. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gavyn Davies: Little sign that policy-makers are listening to the IMF's warnings. (Financial Times) - The composition of this year's stock market rally is unusually defensive. (Wall Street Journal) - UK manufacturers become the luddites of Europe, with many too small to invest in robotics. (Financial Times) - Bernanke won't be attending Jackson Hole this year because of a scheduling conflict. (Reuters) - New research backs climate hockey stick graph. (Financial Times) - India's water scarcity presents massive costs for governments and corporations. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +275.38 (+2.07%) at 13,592 Topix up +21.28 (+1.89%) at 1,148 Hang Seng up +8.10 (+0.04%) at 22,022 US markets S&P 500 up +13.64 (+0.88%) at 1,555 DJIA up +10.37 (+0.07%) at 14,548 Nasdaq up +39.70 (+1.25%) at 3,206 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +5.81 (+0.51%) at 1,153 FTSE100 up +42.92 (+0.69%) at 6,287 CAC 40 up +52.60 (+1.46%) at 3,652 Dax down -13.77 (-0.18%) at 7,460 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.80 (99.77) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.37 at 100.02 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.41 at 88.42 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +26.30 at 1,422 Copper (Comex) down -1.55 at 313.60 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.72% UK 1.66% Germany 1.25% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.99bps at 98.99bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.57bps at 113.49bp Markit iTraxx Xover -3.61bps at 458.04bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 83.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE German Buba President Weidmann speech

Location: Germany

Date: 22/04/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Dr Jens Weidmann is the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank. He is member of the Governing Council of the ECB and has some responsabilities: Communication, Legal, Economics Research Centre...

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