UK RICS Housing Price Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 08/07/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5% / Consensus: 10%

Notes: The RICS Housing Price Balance survey released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors presents housing costs in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole, as the housing market is sensitive to the business cycle. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Consumer Credit Change

Location: United States

Date: 08/07/2013

Time: 20:00 - 21:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $11.1B / Consensus: $12.2B

Notes: The Consumer Credit released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is an amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

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EMU ECB President Draghi's Speech

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 08/07/2013

Time: 15:30 - 16:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The European Central Bank's president Mario Draghi was born in 1947 in Rome, Italy. Graduated of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Draghi became the president of the European Central Bank in 2011. As part of his job in the Governing Council he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 08/07/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Sentix Investor Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 08/07/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -11.6 / Consensus: -10.0

Notes: With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually a higher reading is seen as positive for the Euro zone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with ESI

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DE German Buba President Weidmann speech

Location: Germany

Date: 08/07/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Dr Jens Weidmann is the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank. He is member of the Governing Council of the ECB and has some responsabilities: Communication, Legal, Economics Research Centre...

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US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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US Unemployment Rate

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 7.6% / Consensus: 7.5%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Nonfarm Payrolls

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 175K / Consensus: 165K

Notes: The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-07-05 05:42:46 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose, following strong gains in Europe, although weaker-than-expected earnings from Samsung weighed on the Kospi which fell 0.2%. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng both rose 1.5% and the ASX was 0.9% higher. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) TODAY: US non-farm payrolls. Consensus forecast is for an increase of 165,000 jobs in June. (Financial Times) Samsung Q2 profits disappoint, despite record: In a preliminary estimate ahead of more detailed figures to be released later this month, Samsung said it expected to report operating profit for the period of Won9.3-9.7tn ($8.2-8.5bn), compared with Won8.8tn in the first quarter. Analysts polled by Bloomberg before the release produced a consensus forecast of Won10tn. Some analysts wondered whether the results meant the company's smartphone growth was peaking. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Morsi supporters plan rally today: "Islamist supporters of Egypt's ousted president, Mohamed Mursi, will rally on Friday to express their outrage at his overthrow by the army and to reject a planned interim government backed by their liberal opponents." (Reuters) Portugal's government avoids collapse: Prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho said he had received assurances yesterday of continued backing from the junior partner in his centre-right coalition, despite the resignation of its leader, Paulo Portas, as foreign minister. The two parties had "found a formula to maintain government stability", he said after hours of talks with Portas. Yields on the country's 10-year sovereign yields fell back to 7.19% from a high of 7.9% on Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Greece's finance minister expressed optimism that talks with troika auditors will be concluded in time for next week's meeting of eurozone finance ministers that will decide whether to unlock further aid to the country. "We are heading for a political agreement on Monday," Yannis Stournaras said after a three-hour meeting with troika officials and prime minister Antonis Samaras. (Wall Street Journal) China suspends industry-specific data from official manufacturing PMIs: "We now have 3,000 samples in the survey, and from a technical point of view, time is very limited -- there are many industries, you know," Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, which compiles the data with the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters yesterday in Beijing. (Bloomberg) Asia-Pacific fund flows reported their first inflows in six weeks, showing investors are feeling more confident in the region after being spooked in late May by tapering talk. (FastFT) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gavyn Davies: We are all forward guiders, now. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: Despite massive expectations, Carney's BoE mission can succeed. (Financial Times) - Bruce McCullough and making economics less dismal. (Wall Street Journal) - Bard Harstad: Pay countries to keep fossil fuels in the ground. (Financial Times) - Worries mount for German Mittelstand. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +224.99 (+1.60%) at 14,244 Topix up +16.41 (+1.40%) at 1,187 Hang Seng up +297.88 (+1.46%) at 20,767 US markets S&P 500 up +1.33 (+0.08%) at 1,615 DJIA up +56.14 (+0.38%) at 14,989 Nasdaq up +10.27 (+0.30%) at 3,444 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +28.09 (+2.44%) at 1,179 FTSE100 up +191.80 (+3.08%) at 6,422 CAC 40 up +107.30 (+2.90%) at 3,809 Dax up +164.99 (+2.11%) at 7,994 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 100.29 (100.03) £/$ 1.50 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.10 at 105.44 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.21 at 101.03 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -9.20 at 1,243 Copper (Comex) down -0.05 at 3.12 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.53% UK 2.38% Germany 1.65% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.03bps at 100.63bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.62bps at 111.93bp Markit iTraxx Xover -18.68bps at 445.98bp Markit CDX IG -0.51bps at 85.44bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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EMU ECB Interest Rate Decision

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 04/07/2013

Time: 12:45 - 13:45

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with the ECB Rate Decision

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UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/07/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the U.K. economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with BoE Rate Decision

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UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/07/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: �375B / Consensus: �375B

Notes: The Asset Purchase Facility is the value of money the BoE plans to create and inject into the economy through open market bond purchases as a way to influence long-term interest rates. This monetary policy tool is also called Quantitative Easing.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-07-04 05:46:33 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks outside Japan rose after better than expected private sector US jobs data. Japanese stocks were slightly lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.2% higher in subdued trading ahead of today's July 4 holiday in the US. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) US reacts cautiously to Morsi's ouster: A carefully-written statement issued by the White House on Wednesday evening about the ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi carefully avoided using the word "coup" or putting any label on the events. (Financial Times) Interviews for new RBS chief begin: "Sir Philip Hampton, chairman, has drawn up a list of four or five names and aims to finalise the process by the time of the bank's second-quarter results in a month's time, said people close to the exercise." (Financial Times) Peripheral bond yields jumped as investors grew nervous about the prospects of an early election in Portugal and another showdown between Greece and its creditors. In Portugal, Pedro Passos Coelho is struggling to hold his coalition together as political upheaval may undermine the country's efforts to exit its €78bn aid programme on schedule. A eurozone official said it was possible European finance ministers may decide on Monday to delay Greece's next aid instalment by three months, but added such a decision was unlikely. (Financial Times)(Reuters) China is considering a dramatic relaxation of its capital controls over the next few years as part of an accelerated push to make its currency freely tradable, despite international advisers warning against hasty implementation of reform. (Financial Times) Rupert Murdoch has dismissed investigations into phone hacking and other press abuses as "the biggest inquiry ever over next to nothing" in secretly recorded comments to Sun journalists that were broadcast on Channel 4. (Financial Times) NTT DoCoMo weighs overseas acquisitions: Kaoru Kato, DoCoMo's president and CEO, told the FT the group would consider buying assets outside Japan "if a good opportunity arose". (Financial Times) Sprint Nextel-Softbank deal said to meet FCC approval: "U.S. regulators on Wednesday collected the final vote to approve the merger of Sprint Nextel and SoftBank, sources familiar with the situation said, clearing the last hurdle in the Japanese company's drawn-out battle to take control of the No. 3 U.S. wireless provider." (Reuters) Russian oil shipments to Europe have slumped to a 10-year low, forcing refineries across the continent to pay more for scarce supplies. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Global fund managers are pulling money out of Chinese stocks in the largest outflow since 2008. (Wall Street Journal) - David Pilling: Japan is not ready for Abe's fourth arrow of consumption tax increase. (Financial Times) - Portugal's woes shine light on the rest of the eurozone periphery. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -21.60 (-0.15%) at 14,034 Topix down -4.05 (-0.35%) at 1,170 Hang Seng up +353.88 (+1.76%) at 20,501 US markets S&P 500 up +1.33 (+0.08%) at 1,615 DJIA up +56.14 (+0.38%) at 14,989 Nasdaq up +10.27 (+0.30%) at 3,444 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -7.87 (-0.68%) at 1,151 FTSE100 down -74.07 (-1.17%) at 6,230 CAC 40 down -40.56 (-1.08%) at 3,702 Dax down -81.45 (-1.03%) at 7,829 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.82 (99.87) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.25 at 105.51 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.01 at 101.25 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.00 at 1,254 Copper (Comex) down -0.01 at 3.16 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.50% UK 2.42% Germany 1.66% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +3.93bps at 98.6bp Markit iTraxx Europe +2.68bps at 116.55bp Markit iTraxx Xover +9.96bps at 464.66bp Markit CDX IG -0.51bps at 85.44bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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