US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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US Unemployment Rate

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 7.6% / Consensus: 7.5%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Nonfarm Payrolls

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 175K / Consensus: 165K

Notes: The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 05/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-07-05 05:42:46 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose, following strong gains in Europe, although weaker-than-expected earnings from Samsung weighed on the Kospi which fell 0.2%. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng both rose 1.5% and the ASX was 0.9% higher. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) TODAY: US non-farm payrolls. Consensus forecast is for an increase of 165,000 jobs in June. (Financial Times) Samsung Q2 profits disappoint, despite record: In a preliminary estimate ahead of more detailed figures to be released later this month, Samsung said it expected to report operating profit for the period of Won9.3-9.7tn ($8.2-8.5bn), compared with Won8.8tn in the first quarter. Analysts polled by Bloomberg before the release produced a consensus forecast of Won10tn. Some analysts wondered whether the results meant the company's smartphone growth was peaking. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Morsi supporters plan rally today: "Islamist supporters of Egypt's ousted president, Mohamed Mursi, will rally on Friday to express their outrage at his overthrow by the army and to reject a planned interim government backed by their liberal opponents." (Reuters) Portugal's government avoids collapse: Prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho said he had received assurances yesterday of continued backing from the junior partner in his centre-right coalition, despite the resignation of its leader, Paulo Portas, as foreign minister. The two parties had "found a formula to maintain government stability", he said after hours of talks with Portas. Yields on the country's 10-year sovereign yields fell back to 7.19% from a high of 7.9% on Wednesday. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Greece's finance minister expressed optimism that talks with troika auditors will be concluded in time for next week's meeting of eurozone finance ministers that will decide whether to unlock further aid to the country. "We are heading for a political agreement on Monday," Yannis Stournaras said after a three-hour meeting with troika officials and prime minister Antonis Samaras. (Wall Street Journal) China suspends industry-specific data from official manufacturing PMIs: "We now have 3,000 samples in the survey, and from a technical point of view, time is very limited -- there are many industries, you know," Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, which compiles the data with the National Bureau of Statistics, told reporters yesterday in Beijing. (Bloomberg) Asia-Pacific fund flows reported their first inflows in six weeks, showing investors are feeling more confident in the region after being spooked in late May by tapering talk. (FastFT) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gavyn Davies: We are all forward guiders, now. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: Despite massive expectations, Carney's BoE mission can succeed. (Financial Times) - Bruce McCullough and making economics less dismal. (Wall Street Journal) - Bard Harstad: Pay countries to keep fossil fuels in the ground. (Financial Times) - Worries mount for German Mittelstand. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +224.99 (+1.60%) at 14,244 Topix up +16.41 (+1.40%) at 1,187 Hang Seng up +297.88 (+1.46%) at 20,767 US markets S&P 500 up +1.33 (+0.08%) at 1,615 DJIA up +56.14 (+0.38%) at 14,989 Nasdaq up +10.27 (+0.30%) at 3,444 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +28.09 (+2.44%) at 1,179 FTSE100 up +191.80 (+3.08%) at 6,422 CAC 40 up +107.30 (+2.90%) at 3,809 Dax up +164.99 (+2.11%) at 7,994 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 100.29 (100.03) £/$ 1.50 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.10 at 105.44 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.21 at 101.03 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -9.20 at 1,243 Copper (Comex) down -0.05 at 3.12 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.53% UK 2.38% Germany 1.65% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.03bps at 100.63bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.62bps at 111.93bp Markit iTraxx Xover -18.68bps at 445.98bp Markit CDX IG -0.51bps at 85.44bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

EMU ECB Interest Rate Decision

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 04/07/2013

Time: 12:45 - 13:45

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with the ECB Rate Decision

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UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/07/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the U.K. economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with BoE Rate Decision

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UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/07/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: �375B / Consensus: �375B

Notes: The Asset Purchase Facility is the value of money the BoE plans to create and inject into the economy through open market bond purchases as a way to influence long-term interest rates. This monetary policy tool is also called Quantitative Easing.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-07-04 05:46:33 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks outside Japan rose after better than expected private sector US jobs data. Japanese stocks were slightly lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.2% higher in subdued trading ahead of today's July 4 holiday in the US. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) US reacts cautiously to Morsi's ouster: A carefully-written statement issued by the White House on Wednesday evening about the ouster of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi carefully avoided using the word "coup" or putting any label on the events. (Financial Times) Interviews for new RBS chief begin: "Sir Philip Hampton, chairman, has drawn up a list of four or five names and aims to finalise the process by the time of the bank's second-quarter results in a month's time, said people close to the exercise." (Financial Times) Peripheral bond yields jumped as investors grew nervous about the prospects of an early election in Portugal and another showdown between Greece and its creditors. In Portugal, Pedro Passos Coelho is struggling to hold his coalition together as political upheaval may undermine the country's efforts to exit its €78bn aid programme on schedule. A eurozone official said it was possible European finance ministers may decide on Monday to delay Greece's next aid instalment by three months, but added such a decision was unlikely. (Financial Times)(Reuters) China is considering a dramatic relaxation of its capital controls over the next few years as part of an accelerated push to make its currency freely tradable, despite international advisers warning against hasty implementation of reform. (Financial Times) Rupert Murdoch has dismissed investigations into phone hacking and other press abuses as "the biggest inquiry ever over next to nothing" in secretly recorded comments to Sun journalists that were broadcast on Channel 4. (Financial Times) NTT DoCoMo weighs overseas acquisitions: Kaoru Kato, DoCoMo's president and CEO, told the FT the group would consider buying assets outside Japan "if a good opportunity arose". (Financial Times) Sprint Nextel-Softbank deal said to meet FCC approval: "U.S. regulators on Wednesday collected the final vote to approve the merger of Sprint Nextel and SoftBank, sources familiar with the situation said, clearing the last hurdle in the Japanese company's drawn-out battle to take control of the No. 3 U.S. wireless provider." (Reuters) Russian oil shipments to Europe have slumped to a 10-year low, forcing refineries across the continent to pay more for scarce supplies. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Global fund managers are pulling money out of Chinese stocks in the largest outflow since 2008. (Wall Street Journal) - David Pilling: Japan is not ready for Abe's fourth arrow of consumption tax increase. (Financial Times) - Portugal's woes shine light on the rest of the eurozone periphery. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -21.60 (-0.15%) at 14,034 Topix down -4.05 (-0.35%) at 1,170 Hang Seng up +353.88 (+1.76%) at 20,501 US markets S&P 500 up +1.33 (+0.08%) at 1,615 DJIA up +56.14 (+0.38%) at 14,989 Nasdaq up +10.27 (+0.30%) at 3,444 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -7.87 (-0.68%) at 1,151 FTSE100 down -74.07 (-1.17%) at 6,230 CAC 40 down -40.56 (-1.08%) at 3,702 Dax down -81.45 (-1.03%) at 7,829 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.82 (99.87) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.25 at 105.51 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.01 at 101.25 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.00 at 1,254 Copper (Comex) down -0.01 at 3.16 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.50% UK 2.42% Germany 1.66% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +3.93bps at 98.6bp Markit iTraxx Europe +2.68bps at 116.55bp Markit iTraxx Xover +9.96bps at 464.66bp Markit CDX IG -0.51bps at 85.44bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Trade Balance

Location: United States

Date: 03/07/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -$40.29B / Consensus: -$40.10B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for US exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading US Dollar with US Trade Balance

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US ADP Employment Change

Location: United States

Date: 03/07/2013

Time: 13:15 - 14:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 135K / Consensus: 160K

Notes: The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending, stimulating economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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UK Markit Services PMI

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 03/07/2013

Time: 9:28 - 10:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 54.9 / Consensus: 54.5

Notes: The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. Traders want the highest possible reading as that will be taken as positive for the GBP. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 03/07/2013

Time: 8:53 - 9:53

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.7 / Consensus: 51.3

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-07-03 05:31:35 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell and WTI crude oil rallied above $100for the first time in nine months on political turmoil in Egypt and shrinking US stockpiles. The Nikkei was 0.1% lower after rallying earlier in the day and the Hang Seng fell 1.9%. The yen, South Korea's won and Australia's dollar all fell and the US dollar strengthened against major currencies. (Bloomberg)(Reuters) TODAY: US ADP private employment figures; US initial jobless claims; European services PMIs. Egypt's Morsi defies army: In a rambling speech the president warned of bloodshed if he were removed. "Military sources told Reuters the army had drafted a plan to sideline Mursi and suspend the constitution after a 5 pm (1500 GMT) deadline passes." (Reuters)(Financial Times) Portuguese PM pledges to stay on amid threat of election: Pedro Passos Coelho says he will seek to establish a stable government despite the resignation of two key ministers and the threatened break-up of his ruling coalition. However, opposition parties called for an early general election, saying there was no possible solution for the governing coalition. (Financial Times) The Fed plans to introduce capital requirements that go beyond Basel III. At a board meeting yesterday in which the central bank agreed to force US banks comply with Basel III rules, it also outlined proposals including forcing the biggest banks to hold a higher leverage ratio, and capital charges targeted at banks most exposed to short-term wholesale funding. Officials have previously mentioned the ideas in speeches but not as firm policy goals. (Financial Times) Investors pulled a record $9.9bn from Pimco in June: It was the largest outflow in the 26-year history of Pimco's flagship Total Return bond fund. (Financial Times)(NYT Dealbook) China's services sector PMIs improved slightly in June, with the HSBC/Markit measure rising to 51.3 from 51.2 in May, but new orders sub-index was 50.5, its lowest since November 2008. (Reuters) "Moody's has placed the credit ratings of the three biggest US custody banks on review for a downgrade in a move that illustrates the continued pressure of record low interest rates on the businesses of some of the largest financial institutions. Bank of New York Mellon, Northern Trust and State Street would most likely see their ratings trimmed by one notch, Moody's said in a statement on Tuesday." (Financial Times) Former FBI head to lead BP compensation probe: Louis Freeh, a former FBI director, was appointed to investigate allegations of misconduct at the office administering compensation claims against BP for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster after complaints from BP, which is paying higher levels of compensation than were expected. (Financial Times) National Australia Bank filed a $230m arbitration claim against Goldman Sachs: People familiar with the matter said the claim, filed with Finra in December, relates to Hudson 1, a $2bn CDO. A 2011 US Senate report on the causes of the financial crisis said Goldman began pitching Hudson 1 in October 2006 without disclosing in marketing materials that the firm also was betting against it. It would be among the biggest arbitration cases in recent years, according to Securities Arbitration Commentator. (Wall Street Journal) A US federal judge has approved HSBC's record $1.92bn settlement with federal and state investigators, over charges that it flouted rules on money laundering and transacting with countries under US sanctions. While noting "heavy public criticism" of the settlement, which enabled HSBC to escape criminal prosecution, US District Judge John Gleeson in Brooklyn, New York, called the decision to approve the accord "easy, for it accomplishes a great deal". (Reuters) China will probably miss its modest 2015 target for shale gas production, energy executives and analysts say. Meeting the target of 6.5bn cubic metres would require a 130-fold increase in 24 months. Complicated geology, lack of technical staff and regulations are thought to be the main barriers. (Financial Times) Oil companies won a US court case against new SEC rules that would force them to disclose payments to foreign governments. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Could China hit its stall speed? (Financial Times) - China's plans for financial reforms could lead to yet more instability. (Reuters) - What Ian Hannam is doing next. (Financial Times) - Some CFTC officials still fighting the agency's own new rules for trading abroad. (NYT Dealbook) - John Kay: Evolution, adaptation and economics. (Financial Times) - Is it the end of competitive politics in Japan? (Financial Times) - Why Brent is so high despite commodities fall. (Financial Times) - What will be the legacy of long-serving PBoC chairman Zhou? (Bloomberg) - Deutsche Borse plans to trade cloud computing capacity. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -15.27 (-0.11%) at 14,083 Topix up +1.24 (+0.11%) at 1,173 Hang Seng down -388.98 (-1.88%) at 20,270 US markets S&P 500 down -0.88 (-0.05%) at 1,614 DJIA down -42.55 (-0.28%) at 14,932 Nasdaq down -1.09 (-0.03%) at 3,433 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.81 (-0.41%) at 1,159 FTSE100 down -3.84 (-0.06%) at 6,304 CAC 40 down -24.91 (-0.66%) at 3,743 Dax down -73.15 (-0.92%) at 7,911 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 100.69 (100.62) £/$ 1.51 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.80 at 104.80 Light Crude (Nymex) up +2.01 at 101.61 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +3.70 at 1,247 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.14 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.47% UK 2.40% Germany 1.71% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.43bps at 94.67bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.95bps at 113.87bp Markit iTraxx Xover -5.28bps at 454.7bp Markit CDX IG +1.46bps at 85.95bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US FOMC Member Powell Speech

Location: United States

Date: 02/07/2013

Time: 22:45 - 23:45

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Jerome H. Powell took office as FOMC member on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2014. His comments may affect dollar, an therefore trigger a short term movement positive or negative trend.

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