US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Location: United States

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.53

Notes: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

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DE IFO - Business Climate

Location: Germany

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 105.7 / Consensus: 105.7

Notes: This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

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DE IFO - Expectations

Location: Germany

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 101.6 / Consensus: 102.0

Notes: The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

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DE IFO - Current Assessment

Location: Germany

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 110.0 / Consensus: 109.5

Notes: The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

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UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-21 05:34:33 by Joseph Cotterill Chinese interbank rates eased after reports of central bank support. The one-day repo rate receded 3.84 percentage points to 7.9 per cent, its biggest drop since 2007, while the seven-day rate fell 3.51 percentages points from the record high it set on Thursday (Bloomberg). Fed casualties watch: Pimco's Total Return Fund is now down 2.2 per cent for the year, the worst performing of large US total return funds (Bloomberg); Having fallen below $1,300, gold's 23 per cent slump this year is on course to be its worst since 1981 (Bloomberg); Thursday's bond sell-off saw ETFs' discounts to underlying asset values widen sharply, with cash redemptions halted for some (Financial Times). The ESM has been authorised to 'directly recapitalise' eurozone banks but only if governments make their own investments in stricken lenders first, and with retroactive application of the new powers to be decided on a 'case by case' basis. Eurozone financial ministers also confirmed the size of the direct recap funds to be €60bn, unless later expanded by the ESM board. The ESM expects the tool to become operational in the second half of 2014 (Financial Times). Oracle's revenue growth stagnated for another quarter. Revenues from new software licenses and cloud offerings increased by only 1 per cent in the second quarter. Oracle shares fell 8 per cent after the close, despite a doubling of its dividend and authorisation for a $12bn stock buyback (Wall Street Journal). The IMF has warned eurozone creditors of gaps in financing Greece's bailout, placing its distribution of aid in July in doubt. National eurozone central banks' refusal to roll over their maturing holdings of Greek bonds has compounded the €3bn-€4bn shortfall (Financial Times). Softbank's chief executive revealed the ambition behind its $21.6bn bid for Sprint Nextel. "We want to be the world's No.1 company in various terms including profit, cashflow and market value," Masayoshi Son told shareholders on Friday (Bloomberg). UK prosecutors alleged that former Libor trader Tom Hayes conspired with employees at eight banks and interdealer brokers. The companies named at a court appearance by Hayes, who has been charged with eight counts of "conspiring to defraud", included Tullett Prebon. The broker said on Thursday that it has been asked to provide information to investigators, but that it has not been told that it or its employees are being investigated (Wall Street Journal). COMMENT AND CURIOS - Did Bernanke just let down an asset bubble?, asks John Authers. (Financial Times) - Investors won't get fooled again by Russian growth, Sergei Guriev says. (Financial Times) - The real central bank exit to worry about might be the ECB's... (Financial Times) - Why triathlon-going 'middle aged men in Lycra' should take it easy. (Bloomberg) - Brazil's protests are pretty unlike elsewhere. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -63.97 (-0.49%) at 12,950 Topix down -13.30 (-1.22%) at 1,078 Hang Seng down -305.59 (-1.50%) at 20,077 US markets S&P 500 down -40.74 (-2.50%) at 1,588 DJIA down -353.87 (-2.34%) at 14,758 Nasdaq down -78.56 (-2.28%) at 3,364 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -36.22 (-3.07%) at 1,143 FTSE100 down -189.31 (-2.98%) at 6,159 CAC 40 down -140.41 (-3.66%) at 3,694 Dax down -268.60 (-3.28%) at 7,928 Currencies €/$ 1.323 (1.325) $/¥ 97.29 (96.92) £/$ 1.55 (1.555) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.42 at 102.57 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.17 at 95.31 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.2 at 1,287 Copper (Comex) up 0.01 at 3.07 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.42 UK 2.29 Germany 1.66 CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx Europe +12.3bps at 119bp Markit iTraxx Xover +45bps at 484.7bp Markit CDX IG +5.3bps at 92.6bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United States

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 13:58 - 14:58

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 52.3 / Consensus: 52.8

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the United States. Readings above 50 imply the economy is expanding, making investors understood it as a bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 points for an economic contraction, and weighs negatively on the currency.

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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 334K / Consensus: 340K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.7 / Consensus: 50.0

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.4 / Consensus: 49.8

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-20 05:33:22 by Joseph Cotterill Ben Bernanke said that QE could end completely by mid-2014, and that it would be "appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year" on current economic trends. Ten-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since March 2012 after the Fed chairman's press conference on Wednesday, rising to 2.36 per cent (Wall Street Journal, Reuters). Bernanke: "when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7 per cent, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains" (Financial Times). Chinese manufacturing activity slumped further in June. The HSBC-Markit flash PMI came in at 48.3, lower than forecasts of 49.1, and May's reading of 49.1 (Bloomberg). The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since September 2010, below $0.93, following the PMI release (Wall Street Journal). UK bank capital hole: RBS is £10bn-£12bn short, Lloyds £8bn-£9bn, and Barclays £3bn-£5bn according to Prudential Regulation Authority findings out early on Thursday (Financial Times). The UK government will launch an "urgent investigation" into creating a bad bank from RBS's toxic assets, Chancellor George Osborne said in his annual Mansion House speech. "We will see whether it's right for Britain to, in effect, see RBS broken up," the Chancellor said, indicating that the bank's Irish and UK commercial estate exposures, or £65bn-£130bn of its balance sheet, could be bad-banked (Financial Times). The bad-bank proposal has gathered momentum after a Treasury rethink of its effects on RBS's capital, but one key drawback is the time a split would take (Financial Times). The Treasury is also "actively considering options" for how to begin selling its Lloyds shares, the Chancellor said, but warned no fixed timescale was in place (Wall Street Journal). Chinese interbank rates spiked again, to their highest level since 2006. The seven-day repurchase rate rose 1.24 percentage points on Thursday, to hit 12 per cent. The central bank again declined to conduct liquidity operations (Bloomberg). Sony will study Third Point's proposal for the company to spin off its entertainment arm, its chief executive told shareholders. But Kazuo Hirai reiterated that the business was not for sale (Reuters, Dealbook). Microsoft recently came close to buying Nokia's handset business. The 'advanced' talks ran aground over price, which was not disclosed (Wall Street Journal). The UK's Financial Conduct Authority has begun to vet senior appointments to hedge funds, including US funds with operations in London. Several candidates for positions have been informally vetoed after interviews with the regulator. "The FCA is looking more closely at US hedge funds than the SEC is," according to one lawyer (Financial Times). COMMENT AND CURIOS - President Obama kept calling George Osborne "Jeffrey" at the G8. (Financial Times) - Big Steel has become too big too fail in China, says John Gapper. (Financial Times) Meanwhile, the Verrazano-Narrows bridge in New York is being repaired with... Chinese steel. (Wall Street Journal) - Are UK banks in recovery mode? Chris Giles: "The simple answer is No." (Financial Times) - "Count seven covers the grave offence of the defendant paying himself as much money as he legally could..." Fred Goodwin on 'trial'. (Financial Times) - Where next for Japan's big, $2,400bn pile of corporate cash? (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -129.67 (-0.98%) at 13,115 Topix down -11.51 (-1.04%) at 1,095 Hang Seng down -528.72 (-2.52%) at 20,458 US markets S&P 500 down -22.88 (-1.39%) at 1,628 DJIA down -206.04 (-1.35%) at 15,112 Nasdaq down -38.98 (-1.12%) at 3,482 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -3.23 (-0.27%) at 1,180 FTSE100 down -25.39 (-0.40%) at 6,348 CAC 40 down -21.21 (-0.55%) at 3,839 Dax down -32.43 (-0.39%) at 8,197 Currencies €/$ 1.325 (1.339) $/¥ 96.92 (95.21) £/$ 1.544 (1.56) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.33 at 104.79 Light Crude (Nymex) down -1.31 at 96.93 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -29.50 at 1,344 Copper (Comex) down 0.03 at 3.12 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.36 UK 2.13 Germany 1.56 CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx Europe -0.8bps at 107.3bp Markit iTraxx Xover +0.1bps at 442.5bp Markit CDX IG +5.7bps at 87.3bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK BoE's Governor King Speech

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 21:00 - 22:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The BoE Chairman Mervyn King was born in 1948. He graduated from Kings College, Cambridge, and Harvard. He gives a press conference as to how the BoE observes the current UK economy and the value of GBP. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

Location: United States

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 19:30 - 20:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Following the Fed's rate decision, Ben Bernanke gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

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