US FOMC Economic Projections

Location: United States

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: This report, released by Federal Reserve, includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts.

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US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Location: United States

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.25% / Consensus: 0.25%

Notes: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. Generally speaking, if the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article -Suggested Strategies to trade the US dollar with this economic release.

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DE 10-y Bond Auction

Location: Germany

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.41%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the Federal Bonds auctioned by Deutsche Bundesbank. German Federal Bonds have maturities of above then ten years. The yield on the bonos represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

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UK Bank of England Minutes

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

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The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-19 05:28:11 by Joseph Cotterill Senior bankers should face a criminal offence of 'reckless misconduct' under a toughened sanctions regime for failures at UK banks, according to the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards. The Commission's long-awaited 571-page report also criticises UK governments for "clearly not acceptable" interference in the running of part-nationalised lenders (Financial Times). Full report HERE, summary HERE -- other key recommendations: Study a split of RBS. "The Commission recommends that the Government immediately commit to undertaking such detailed analysis on splitting RBS and putting its bad assets in a separate legal entity" Get rid of UK Financial Investments. "It may be possible to bolster UKFI's independence, but this would be extremely unlikely to end political interference in the State–owned banks" Decade-long pay deferrals. "...much more remuneration to be deferred and, in many cases, for much longer periods of up to 10 years" Commission quote: "One of the most dismal features of the banking industry to emerge from our evidence was the striking limitation on the sense of personal responsibility and accountability of the leaders within the industry for the widespread failings and abuses over which they presided..." Andrew Tyrie MP: "This is not a bank bashing report" / George Osborne: "warm response" / Ed Balls: "radical blueprint" / CBI: 'said that prescriptive measures to defer bonuses would not be right' (Financial Times) ______________________ In Asia, the Nikkei 225 increased up to 1.3 per cent on good data for Japanese exporters, although the Shanghai composite was in danger of closing at its lowest level since December following signs of interbank funding getting tighter (Bloomberg). Dish abandoned its current pursuit of Sprint Nextel. Dish said before a Tuesday deadline for a final offer that it would instead focus on its offer for Clearwire, though it added that it "continues to see strategic value" in a merger. Sprint shareholders will vote on a $21.6bn offer from Softbank on June 25 (Reuters, Wall Street Journal). Abenomics watch: The value of Japanese exports rose 10 per cent in May from a year earlier, their largest increase since 2010. Exports to China rose 8.3 per cent (Bloomberg). Shinzo Abe claimed G8 backing for his stimulus policies. "This is a policy to achieve domestic objectives and this is not targeted at the foreign exchange rate of Japan," the Japanese prime minister said following the G8 summit at Lough Erne. Other leaders had a "clear understanding" of the need for stimulus, Abe added (Financial Times). EADS's chief executive said "never say never" to another attempt at a BAE Systems tie-up. But Tom Enders played down the prospects of a rapid return to dealmaking after last year's planned deal between the two companies foundered on German government opposition (Financial Times). How to game Platts oil benchmarks? "Offer to sell a small amount at a loss to drive down published oil prices, then snap up shiploads at the lower price... Several... traders interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said they have engaged in similar transactions... Platts says it isn't aware of any instances in which its indexes were gamed in such a way." (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS - Making 'reckless misconduct' in banking a crime is the right move, says Philip Augar. (Financial Times) - John Kay: don't blame the tax havens -- fix corporation tax in the G8 instead. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf's take on the IMF's Greek mea culpa. (Financial Times) - Daniel Loeb, Abenomist. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +140.75 (+1.08%) at 13,148 Topix up +14.61 (+1.34%) at 1,101 Hang Seng down -264.54 (-1.25%) at 20,961 US markets S&P 500 up +12.77 (+0.78%) at 1,651 DJIA up +138.38 (+0.91%) at 15,318 Nasdaq up +30.05 (+0.87%) at 3,482 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.92 (-0.08%) at 1,184 FTSE100 up +43.72 (+0.69%) at 6,374 CAC 40 up -3.11 (-0.08%) at 3,860 Dax up +13.78 (+0.17%) at 8,229 Currencies €/$ 1.339 (1.34) $/¥ 95.21 (94.88) £/$ 1.56 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.03 at 105.99 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.08 at 98.36 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -2.00 at 1,364 Copper (Comex) up 0.01 at 3.16 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.19 UK 2.14 Germany 1.57 CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx Europe +0.2bps at 108.1bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.2bps at 442.4bp Markit CDX IG -0.1bps at 81.7bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Housing Starts (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.853M / Consensus: 0.924M

Notes: The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Generally, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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US Building Permits (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.005M / Consensus: 0.980M

Notes: The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Normally, the more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD.

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US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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US Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.4% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK BOE Inflation Letter

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: BOE inflation letter is issued if the earlier-released CPI y/y is above 3.0% or below 1.0%. If CPI is not above 3.0% or below 1.0% this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the CPI release. Otherwise the Tentative mark will be discarded when the exact timing of the letter is known.

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DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 8.9 / Consensus: 9.5

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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UK Inflation Report Hearings

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies, including the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority.

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DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 36.4 / Consensus: 38.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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