UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

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UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 2.6%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 2.1%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-18 05:35:45 by Cardiff Garcia COMMENT AND CURIOS - The rise in US 10-year treasury yields is not just about the Fed. - Malcolm Gladwell on Albert O Hirschman and the power of failure. - Abenomics, Japan's debt, and privatisation. - A truce between monetarists and fiscalists? - Detroit takes aim at its pensioners. - 15 scenes from the Wolf of Wall Street. ROUND-UP EU-US trade talks launched amid French fury with Brussels: "Barack Obama and European leaders on Monday launched talks on "the biggest bilateral trade deal in history" , an initiative that the US president has put at the heart of his second-term economic agenda. Mr Obama announced that talks on a transatlantic trade and investment deal would begin in Washington next month. While EU leaders admit the negotiations will be "difficult", they believe they can be wrapped up within two years." (Financial Times) Co-operative Bank outlines restructuring plan to raise £1.5bn: "A sweeping debt restructuring by The Co-operative Group has marked the end of an era for Britain's biggest mutual, with a forced share listing of its banking subsidiary heralding the last days of pure-mutual status for the operation. Under the measures, needed to bridge a £1.5bn capital hole, about £300m of new Co-op Bank shares will be listed on the London Stock Exchange in a bitter blow to the government's advocacy of mutuals as a more sustainable alternative to discredited listed banks." (Financial Times) UK agrees EU deal on City regulation: "The UK has reached an agreement with European Union member states that will potentially limit Brussels' influence on the way the City of London regulates trading on its financial markets. A deal between the countries reviewing the EU's key markets legislation, known as the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (Mifid), represents a significant step forward after 30 months of fierce negotiations between the UK, France and Germany, as well as banks and exchanges." (Financial Times) Brazilian economic protests spread: "Brazil's student bus fare protests spread through the country's major cities late on Monday with hundreds of protesters invading areas of the national Congress complex in Brasília. Brazilian television showed protesters occupying the roof of the modernist Congress building, designed by the country's late architect Oscar Niemeyer, as the protests widened to become a general expression of discontent with the nation's political class. " (Financial Times) Private equity-run brands' tax bills spark ire: "Alliance Boots has accumulated a tax credit on £5bn of profit in the past six years, prompting calls by unions and MPs for an overhaul of the tax advantages enjoyed by private equity. The revelation came from an analysis by the Financial Times of the corporation taxes paid by some of Britain's best-known brands under private equity control." (Financial Times) Bolton retires after failing to crack China: "Anthony Bolton, one of the UK's best-known and most successful fund managers, is to retire from running the Fidelity China Special Situations investment trust, admitting it had proved more difficult to make money from China than he had anticipated. Mr Bolton came out of semi-retirement – at his request – in 2010 to set up and run the China-focused fund. He had made his name running the UK-focused Fidelity Special Situations fund, which enjoyed a compound annual rate of return of 19.5 per cent during his 28 years at the helm." (Financial Times) Peña Nieto pledges transformational reform of Pemex: "Enrique Peña Nieto, the Mexican president, vowed to press ahead with what he claimed would be a "transformational" reform of Pemex, the state-owned oil monopoly, a controversial move widely expected to unleash billions of dollars of foreign investment. Mr Peña Nieto said the need to liberalise Pemex was already agreed under the so-called Pact for Mexico, a coalition between the country's three main political parties, and that a more detailed proposal would be forthcoming within "two to three months."" (Financial Times) Samaras buckles in wake of ruling over ERT: "Greece's fractious political leaders have agreed to overhaul their coalition agreement, ending a six-day stand-off over the closure of the state broadcaster that had threatened to bring down the government and force a snap election. A deal was struck Monday night after an interim ruling by the council of state, the highest legal body, calling for Hellenic Radio and Television (ERT) to resume broadcasting immediately." (Financial Times) Czech PM Petr Necas quits over spying and bribery scandal: "Petr Necas resigned as Czech prime minister on Monday over a growing bribery and spying scandal, taking his government down with him and plunging the country into the latest in a succession of political crises. The scandal erupted on Thursday after about 400 police from the organised crime unit raided the prime minister's office, several ministries, and the residences of various lobbyists. They reportedly turned up €4m-€5m in cash and several kilos of gold." (Financial Times) UK prepares charges against Libor trader: "UK authorities are preparing to file criminal fraud charges against Tom Hayes, the former UBS and Citigroup trader, in connection with the global Libor rate-rigging scandal, two people familiar with the matter said." (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -22.98 (-0.18%) at 13,010 Topix up +2.99 (+0.28%) at 1,088 Hang Seng down -152.83 (-0.72%) at 21,073 US markets S&P 500 up +12.31 (+0.76%) at 1,639 DJIA up +109.67 (+0.73%) at 15,180 Nasdaq up +28.57 (+0.83%) at 3,452 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.44 (+0.72%) at 1,184 FTSE100 up +22.23 (+0.35%) at 6,330 CAC 40 up +58.50 (+1.54%) at 3,864 Dax up +87.77 (+1.08%) at 8,216 Currencies €/$ 1.34 (1.34) $/¥ 94.88 (94.49) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.05 at 105.52 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.01 at 97.78 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.90 at 1,382 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.20 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.17% UK 2.10% Germany 1.52% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.06bps at 90.51bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.26bps at 108.14bp Markit iTraxx Xover -10.29bps at 442.38bp Markit CDX IG -1.28bps at 82.08bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-17 05:43:02 by Cardiff Garcia COMMENT AND CURIOS - A college degree vs being born rich. - Saving Abenomics: no time for cold feet on QE. - Protectionism's quiet return. - Steve Randy Waldman on helicopter drops. - And why Noah Smith is a fiscalist. - Paul Krugman on the possibility of a Canadian deleveraging bust. - How to live to be 100. - Calculated Risk's mid-year review. ROUND-UP Market turmoil forces G8 leaders to focus on global economy: "Turmoil in financial markets is once again overshadowing a Group of Eight summit, turning world leaders' attention away from trade, tax and transparency and back to the bumps on the road to recovery. With global bond markets swooning on the hint that the US might slow its money-printing operations and currency market volatility leaping as investors try to gauge the right level of the dollar and the yen, G8 leaders know the world economy remains a dangerous place." (Financial Times) G8 dispute breaks out on Syria arms: "An international row has broken out on the eve of the G8 summit over arming of both sides in Syria's civil war. President Vladimir Putin bluntly warned the US and its allies not to arm opposition rebels in Syria, reasserting Russia's uncompromising support for Bashar al-Assad's regime and declaring that Moscow backs the country's "legitimate" government." (Financial Times) George Osborne to hint at sale of bailed-out bank: "George Osborne is to give his strongest signal yet that he wants to move Lloyds Banking Group back into private ownership by the 2015 general election, albeit not at a price that would leave taxpayers out of pocket. The chancellor will refuse to lay out a specific "timetable" on the sale of government stakes in either RBS or Lloyds in his annual Mansion House speech on Wednesday, according to aides." (Financial Times) Bid to relaunch synthetic CDO unravels: "An attempt by two big Wall Street banks to revive notorious credit boom-era securities blamed for exacerbating the global financial crisis has failed after investors balked at buying some of the derivatives on offer. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have scrapped a plan to sell "synthetic collateralised debt obligations" – sliced and diced pools of credit derivatives – after failing to find investors willing to take on all of the deal's different pieces." (Financial Times) JPMorgan set to launch asset tracking service: "JPMorgan Chase will on Monday unveil its attempt to capture a slice of the growing business of managing the billions of dollars worth of cash and securities that funds and companies will need to stump up to back their derivatives trades. The US investment bank says it has created a hub that will allow clients to track and optimise all of their available "collateral" – even those assets held at other banks and custodians." (Financial Times) Bank of England says foreign banks made UK's credit crunch worse: "Foreign-owned bank branches in Britain made the country's financial crisis worse, shrinking their loan books by almost half at the height of the credit crunch, according to Bank of England research. In the latest sign of the BoE's concern surrounding the impact of international banking on the UK economy, research by the central bank showed lending from foreign-owned branches boomed in the run-up to the crisis before collapsing by 45 per cent between the third quarter of 2007 and the same period in 2009." (Financial Times) Brazil hanging on for record IPO boom: "Capital raised this year from new listings on Brazil's stock market is set to top $10.6bn this week – the highest January to June total in the country's history. But it all depends whether bankers can bring the world's second-biggest initial public offering this year to market." (Financial Times) Aerospace trio campaigns for European drone programme: "Three of Europe's biggest defence contractors have called on governments to launch a European drone programme to compete with the US and Israeli companies that dominate the sector. Pan-European EADS, Italy's Finmeccanica and France's Dassault want governments to secure jobs, technical knowhow and European militaries' ability to maintain sovereign independence over the intelligence that medium-altitude long-endurance drones are designed to collect." (Financial Times) Trade deal would benefit US more than EU, Ifo study finds: "The US would gain more than the EU from a transatlantic trade deal, according to a study to be released on Monday. Its report concludes that a transatlantic agreement would reduce trade flows within Europe and damage many developing countries. Economists at the Munich-based Ifo institute, a German economic think-tank, found that a trade deal would lead to a 13.4 per cent increase in US income per head in real terms over the "long term" but only an average 5 per cent rise among the EU's 27 member states." (Financial Times) Italy's coalition issues package of measures to boost economy: "Italy's fragile coalition government has closed ranks around a budget-neutral decree intended to boost the recession-hit economy while putting off decisions on controversial tax cuts. Enrico Letta, the centre-left prime minister, announced a package of some 80 measures on Saturday night after a difficult cabinet meeting lasting nearly six hours. Earlier he assured José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, that Italy would keep to its target of a 2.9 per cent budget deficit this year." (Financial Times) French companies adopt 'say on pay' to avert legislation: "French companies, under pressure from the Socialist government, have agreed a new set of corporate governance rules including a "say on pay" for shareholders and the creation of a special body to oversee compliance. The government, which came to power a year ago promising to crack down on high executive pay, has said it will withdraw a threat to introduce legislation in return for tougher self-regulation." (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +290.56 (+2.29%) at 12,977 Topix up +24.14 (+2.29%) at 1,081 Hang Seng up +282.03 (+1.34%) at 21,251 US markets S&P 500 down -9.63 (-0.59%) at 1,627 DJIA down -105.90 (-0.70%) at 15,070 Nasdaq down -21.80 (-0.63%) at 3,424 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.94 (+0.17%) at 1,176 FTSE100 up +3.63 (+0.06%) at 6,308 CAC 40 up +7.18 (+0.19%) at 3,805 Dax up +32.57 (+0.40%) at 8,128 Currencies €/$ 1.33 (1.33) $/¥ 94.65 (94.07) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.21 at 105.72 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.22 at 97.63 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.70 at 1,390 Copper (Comex) up +0.03 at 3.23 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.14% UK 2.06% Germany 1.52% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.45bps at 90.45bp Markit iTraxx Europe -3.32bps at 109.4bp Markit iTraxx Xover -19.31bps at 452.67bp Markit CDX IG +1.14bps at 83.36bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/06/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.5%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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US Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.6%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.7%

Notes: The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

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EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-14 05:34:20 by FT Alphaville COMMENT AND CURIOS - America's economy: the stealth boom. - Jonthan Portes on UK immigration. - Breakthrough with Honduran charter cities. - What is neoclassical economics? - David Beckworth's proposal for fiscalist and monetarist cooperation. - Sympathy for the Luddites. ROUND-UP Bond sales dry up as interest rates rise: "The number of companies tapping the bond market has collapsed as a result of rising interest rates, threatening to halt a global refinancing wave that helped companies boost earnings and strengthen balance sheets. Bond investors have retrenched in the face of increasing market volatility since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke hinted on May 22 at a possible "tapering" of US quantitative easing. This has left companies unable to raise financing on previously beneficial terms." (Financial Times) Fear Hester exit will speed RBS defections: "The ousting of Stephen Hester as Royal Bank of Scotland's chief executive has sent staff confidence to "rock bottom" and is set to accelerate a recent wave of defections from the group's investment bank, senior insiders have warned. Shares in the bank, which is 82 per cent state-owned, initially fell 8 per cent on Thursday morning, with investors taking fright at the prospect of greater political interference in RBS's management as well as a likely delay of its reprivatisation timetable. The shares later recovered to close down 3 per cent at 315p." (Financial Times) House prices in England and Wales top pre-credit crunch high: "House prices in England and Wales rose to a record last month, beating their pre-recession peak, as government measures to boost home ownership started to stimulate the market. A month-on-month rise of 0.4 per cent in May, to £233,061, took the annual growth rate to 2.7 per cent, according to the LSL/Acadametrics house price index, which the Financial Times helped set up." (Financial Times) Rupert Murdoch filed for divorce. Mr Murdoch's marriage with Wendi Deng Murdoch, his third wife, had "broken down irretrievably for a period of more than six months". Ms Murdoch does not have equity in News Corp, and has no voting rights. (Financial Times) Ashley Bacon is JPMorgan's new head of risk. Bacon, a Jamie Dimon favourite, survived the heat of a recent Senate hearing into the London Whale trades, having been brought in to deal with the debacle. John Hogan will move from chief risk officer to "chairman of risk" on the bank's operating committee, but is ultimately likely to step down from the group of executives that run JPMorgan. (Financial Times) "Naturally occurring" human genes cannot be patented, the Supreme Court ruled. However, the decision also said that patents could be valid for synthetic DNA modified in a lab. The case involved patents by Myriad Genetics, a Utah biotech company, on two genes whose mutations have been linked to breast and ovarian cancer. "A naturally occurring DNA segment is a product of nature and not patent-eligible merely because it has been isolated," Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in the unanimous ruling. (Financial Times) Brazil acts after real hits four-year low: "Brazil has reduced a financial transactions tax on currency derivatives to zero after its currency, the real, hit four-year lows against the dollar on Wednesday. The measure was the second such move in a week to dismantle currency controls as the government sounds a rapid retreat from its earlier "currency war" against foreign capital inflows." (Financial Times) Hopes for G8 trade and tax deals dented: "Hopes of a deal to boost the world economy at next week's Group of Eight summit were in the balance on Thursday night, as France and Canada resisted a last-minute push for an ambitious trade and tax package. France's refusal to include its film industry in EU-US trade negotiations has thrown into doubt plans to launch talks on Monday, when European leaders meet Barack Obama, US president, at the summit in Northern Ireland." (Financial Times) Germany seeks to halt EU-Turkey talks over handling of protests: "Germany is seeking to delay EU membership talks with Turkey scheduled for this month, in response to Ankara's crackdown on mass demonstrations that have shaken the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The prospect that the negotiations – a potential turning point in the long and troubled relationship between Ankara and the bloc – could be put on hold came as the Turkish prime minister delivered a "final warning" to protesters that they were no longer safe to remain in Istanbul's Gezi Park, epicentre of the demonstrations." (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +298.97 (+2.40%) at 12,744 Topix up +25.02 (+2.40%) at 1,069 Hang Seng up +206.46 (+0.99%) at 21,094 US markets S&P 500 up +23.84 (+1.48%) at 1,636 DJIA up +180.85 (+1.21%) at 15,176 Nasdaq up +44.93 (+1.32%) at 3,445 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.81 (-0.07%) at 1,174 FTSE100 up +5.18 (+0.08%) at 6,305 CAC 40 up +4.28 (+0.11%) at 3,798 Dax down -47.88 (-0.59%) at 8,095 Currencies €/$ 1.33 (1.34) $/¥ 94.91 (95.36) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.15 at 104.80 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.06 at 96.75 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +6.30 at 1,384 Copper (Comex) up +0.03 at 3.21 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.15% UK 2.15% Germany 1.56% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.35bps at 90.9bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.51bps at 112.72bp Markit iTraxx Xover +0.95bps at 471.98bp Markit CDX IG -5.14bps at 82.22bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Retail Sales (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 13/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.1% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END