US Monthly Budget Statement

Location: United States

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 112.9B / Consensus: -110.0B

Notes: The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

#END

US 10-Year Note Auction

Location: United States

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.81%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the notes auctioned by US Department of Treasury. US notes have maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years and pay interest every six months. The yield on the bonds represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

#END

DE Germany Constitutional court ruling on OTM bond buying

Location: Germany

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Germany constitutional court is scheduled to rule about the legality latest ECBs bond buying program, the OTM.

#END

EMU Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.7% / Consensus: -1.4%

Notes: The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).

#END

UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4%

Notes: The Average Earing Including Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the U.K. economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates "Bullish for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen

#END

UK Claimant Count Change

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -7.3K / Consensus: -7.0

Notes: The Claimant Count Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 7.8% / Consensus: 7.8%

Notes: The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the U.K. labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the U.K. economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is negative.

#END

UK Claimant Count Rate

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 4.5%

Notes: The Claimant Count Rate released by the National Statistics is a monthly measure of unemployment in the UK It indicates the health of the UK labor market. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market, while it indicates economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures if the rate is down. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is seen as negative.

#END

DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

#END

DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

#END

DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am London Cut Posted 2013-06-12 05:35:50 by Cardiff Garcia Dimon pledges to fight Whale suits: "Jamie Dimon hit back against allegations that JPMorgan Chase executives misled investors over the bank's "London whale" trading losses, pledging to fight "to the end" against any lawsuits filed in the affair. "There was no hiding, there was no lying, there was no bullshitting. Period," the JPMorgan chief executive said at an industry conference on Tuesday. " (Financial Times) Apple bonds lose 9% in six weeks: "Investors are nursing losses of up to 9 per cent on Apple's record-breaking $17bn bond offering, less than six weeks after the securities landed in their portfolios. The technology giant tapped the white-hot bond market for the largest debt fundraising to date on April 30, but a sharp turn in interest rates has caused a sell-off in corporate bonds and wiped hundreds of millions of dollars off the value of the offering." (Financial Times) Investors vent fury at Facebook meeting: "Facebook faced a barrage of complaints from shareholders over the company's depressed stock price at its first annual general meeting on Tuesday, prompting chief executive Mark Zuckerberg to express his own disappointment. The social network's share price remains about 40 per cent below its issue price of $38 more than a year ago. Some investors who bought shares on the private secondary market before the flotation paid more than $40." (Financial Times) Tech groups urge US to ease security gag: "Google and Facebook have asked the US government to ease a gag order that prohibits the internet companies from revealing the number of national security requests they receive for users' data. The move follows a broader effort by technology companies and advocacy groups in demanding more transparency around US spying programmes." (Financial Times) US warns EU against exempting film industry from trade talks: "The US government has warned Brussels that EU efforts to placate French demands to exempt its film industry from high-profile transatlantic trade talks could unleash a torrent of demands in Washington for similar reciprocal carve-outs that would imperil a comprehensive deal." (Financial Times) Emerging market assets suffer in fierce sell-off: "Emerging market currencies, stocks and bonds suffered a fierce sell-off on Tuesday on rising investor concerns over the prospect of the US Federal Reserve reining in its programme of bond-buying to drive down long-term interest rates. Emerging economies have been among the prime beneficiaries of ultra-loose global monetary policy as central banks led by the Fed have flooded financial markets with more than $12tn of extra liquidity since the financial crisis." (Financial Times) UK banks urged to ease switch to rivals: "Britain's banks will be urged to make it easier for customers to switch to a rival institution, in a cross-party report on raising standards and making the industry more competitive. Andrew Tyrie's banking standards commission believes that more effective competition would be a major driver in tackling the consumer scandals that have dogged the sector." (Financial Times) Greece pulls the plug on 'extravagant' state broadcaster ERT: "Greece has announced the immediate closure of the state broadcaster ERT as it seeks to comply with a scheme agreed with the EU and International Monetary Fund to cut the public sector payroll by eliminating scores of overstaffed state-owned organisations." (Financial Times) CBOE pays $6m to SEC for policing failure: "The CBOE has agreed to pay US regulators $6m to settle charges that its inadequate market policing resulted in numerous failings including an instance where it actively interfered with a regulatory investigation. The settlement with the operator of the largest US options exchange marks the first time that the Securities and Exchange Commission has levied a fine for a regulatory failing by a US exchange. " (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS - The real underpinning for equities. - Technology's influence on the size of government and individual liberties. - Financialisation as a cause of economic malaise. - Flowchart of the News Corp split. - Fiscal fixes for the jobless recovery. OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -233.75 (-1.76%) at 13,084 Topix down -14.67 (-1.33%) at 1,086 Hang Seng down -260.43 (-1.20%) at 21,355 US markets S&P 500 down -16.68 (-1.02%) at 1,626 DJIA down -116.57 (-0.76%) at 15,122 Nasdaq down -36.82 (-1.06%) at 3,437 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -13.70 (-1.15%) at 1,180 FTSE100 down -60.37 (-0.94%) at 6,340 CAC 40 down -53.80 (-1.39%) at 3,811 Dax down -85.23 (-1.03%) at 8,222 Currencies €/$ 1.33 (1.33) $/¥ 96.29 (96.01) £/$ 1.56 (1.56) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.41 at 102.55 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.60 at 94.78 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +0.10 at 1,377 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.19 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.20% UK 2.19% Germany 1.60% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.88bps at 89.22bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.58bps at 110.9bp Markit iTraxx Xover +11.54bps at 463.08bp Markit CDX IG +1.52bps at 85.46bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK Industrial Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 11/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.4%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by The National Statistics measures outputs of the U.K. factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as po

#END

UK Manufacturing Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 11/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.4%

Notes: The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive ( or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or bearish ).

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-11 05:50:33 by Cardiff Garcia Report urging bank shares handout 'well researched' says Treasury: "A report urging George Osborne to hand out shares in Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds to the public was described by the Treasury as "quite robust and well researched". Mr Osborne is expected to set out his ambition to return the two banks to the private sector next week, with the Treasury eyeing a possible start of that process with a disposal of 10 per cent of Lloyds shares this year." (Financial Times) Better news on economy boosts house sales, says Rics survey: "The number of homes sold in the UK has soared to its highest level in three and a half years over the past quarter, according to a property survey. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said on Tuesday that home sales rose to their highest level since January 2010 in the three months to May on the back of better news on the British economy." (Financial Times) World has 10 years of shale oil, reports US: "Global shale resources are vast enough to cover more than a decade of oil consumption, according to the first-ever US assessment of reserves from Russia to Argentina. The US Department of Energy estimated "technically recoverable" shale oil resources of 345bn barrels in 42 countries it surveyed, or 10 per cent of global crude supplies. The department had previously only provided an estimate for US shale reserves, which it on Monday increased from 32bn barrels to 58bn." (Financial Times) US to crack down on virtual currency tax fraud: "US officials are targeting virtual currencies due to fears that Americans are using them to evade taxes, opening a new front in the crackdown on tax fraud. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and the exchanges where they trade have come under increased scrutiny since last month's arrest of five individuals associated with Liberty Reserve, a Costa Rican-based digital currency business, on charges of running a $6bn money laundering scheme." (Financial Times) SAC Capital case nears breakthrough on laptop access: "US prosecutors are finalising an agreement with the University of Michigan that would give them access to computer files tied to an insider trading case against a former SAC Capital employee. The battle over the files of Dr Sidney Gilman, a former professor of neurology at the medical school, has become pivotal in the government's investigation of a former SAC Capital employee, Mathew Martoma, who is accused of participating in the biggest insider trading scheme on record." (Financial Times) G8 leaders braced for battle on evasion: "It has been billed by the British government as "a turning point" in the battle against tax evasion and avoidance. When world leaders gather in Northern Ireland next week, they will set out to end tax havens and stem the illicit flow of funds out of some of the world's poorest countries. The agenda – focused on the 'three Ts" of trade, tax and transparency – is both technically and politically challenging. Progress on the latter two will depend on costly changes, not just in the small states that are widely regarded as tax havens, but also by the G8 countries themselves. " (Financial Times) Lululemon chief executive to step down: "Christine Day is stepping down as chief executive of the sportswear retailer Lululemon Athletica three months after it was plunged into crisis over yoga pants that were excessively see-through. The announcement came on Monday as the company warned that the fallout from the crisis would continue to squeeze its profitability in the current quarter. The twin blows sent its shares down by as much as 15 per cent in after-hours trading." (Financial Times) Apple takes fight to rivals with its redesign: "Apple unveiled what its chief executive Tim Cook called the most radical redesign of its iOS software since the introduction of the iPhone six years ago, as the company looks to prove it has not lost the advantage in innovation to rivals. The new iOS7 has a minimalist new look and improvements that will make it easier for users to share documents and organise their photos. Apple's design chief, Sir Jonathan Ive, said the changes would define "an important new direction" for the original smartphone." (Financial Times) David Cameron rejects claims GCHQ broke law over US Prism data: "David Cameron on Monday rejected claims that the government's intelligence agency, GCHQ, might have acted illegally by receiving information from a US spy programme. The prime minister said the UK's secret services had acted in a "proper" and "fitting" way when he was questioned about revelations that the US was secretly snooping on personal data via internet companies such as Google and Facebook." (Financial Times) RBS restructuring options set to be curbed by EU rules: "UK options to restructure Royal Bank of Scotland are set to be constrained by EU rules that would effectively stymie any attempt to hive off toxic assets in a "bad bank", unless private shareholders are wiped out." (Financial Times) COMMENTS AND CURIOS - A backlash is brewing against iOS 7's new look. - "Without leaks, Barack Obama might never have been elected to begin with." - The soaring number of $100 bills. - "Paradox" redux. - Brad DeLong on confusion. OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -124.28 (-0.92%) at 13,390 Topix down -5.81 (-0.52%) at 1,106 Hang Seng down -191.40 (-0.89%) at 21,424 US markets S&P 500 down -0.57 (-0.03%) at 1,643 DJIA down -9.53 (-0.06%) at 15,239 Nasdaq up +4.55 (+0.13%) at 3,474 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.99 (-0.08%) at 1,193 FTSE100 down -11.54 (-0.18%) at 6,400 CAC 40 down -8.23 (-0.21%) at 3,864 Dax up +53.01 (+0.64%) at 8,308 Currencies €/$ 1.33 (1.33) $/¥ 98.74 (98.76) £/$ 1.56 (1.56) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.21 at 103.74 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.06 at 95.83 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -2.30 at 1,384 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.24 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.22% UK 2.15% Germany 1.61% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.32bps at 87.34bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.04bps at 107.32bp Markit iTraxx Xover +14.88bps at 451.54bp Markit CDX IG +2.88bps at 83.94bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END