US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 30/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

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US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 30/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Personal Consumption Expenditures, released by US Department of Commerce, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures consist of the actual and imputed expenditures of households; the measure includes data pertaining to durables, non-durables and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted toward individuals and consumed by individuals.

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US Gross Domestic Product Price Index

Location: United States

Date: 30/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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EMU Consumer Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 30/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -22.3 / Consensus: -21.9

Notes: The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 30/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.9% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-30 05:42:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell, with the Nikkei declining more than 3% and the yen trading around 101.2, close to a three-week high. The MSCI Asia Pacific was down 1.4% and the Kospi moved between gains and losses. The Hong Kong IPO of Langham Hospitality Investments saw the shares slump 9.2%. (Bloomberg) European regulators have clashed with the US over the timing derivatives reforms, in a letter urging further delays to "cross border guidance", which would which would outline how the US would keep tabs on banks and hedge funds whose international swap trading could have a direct impact on the US economy. The European Commission in a letter sent on Tuesday urged the CFTC to extend an exemption for foreign market participants until leaders of the Group of 20 countries have agreed international principles on cross-border swap rules. (Financial Times) Google is preparing an attack on Apple's iPhone with a device that is more aware of its surroundings and smart enough to anticipate how it will be used next, according to the head of the internet company's Motorola subsidiary. (Financial Times) Panasonic said it would cut about 5,000 workers from its automotive and industrial division, which employs a total of 110,000, in a bid to bolster its operating profit margin to at least 5% over the next three years. (Reuters) "Berkshire Hathaway on Wednesday agreed to buy NV Energy, a power company serving customers in Nevada, for $5.6bn, saying the deal would help develop the state's renewable energy resources. The all-cash offer from MidAmerican Holdings, a Berkshire subsidiary that provides power in the midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, values NV at $10bn, including debt." (Financial Times) British SMEs' external borrowing declines: The quarterly SME Finance monitor found 39% of the 5,000 firms surveyed had used finance such as loans, overdrafts and credit cards. That was down from half in the same three months last year and was the lowest since the survey began in early 2011. (Reuters) Blackstone is weighing a bigger than expected withdrawal from SAC Capital. Ahead of a Monday deadline for SAC clients, Blackstone is planning to withdraw up to $400m, people familiar with the matter said, which would be double the amount expected early this month. (Wall Street Journal) "Switzerland has taken a decisive step to resolve its dispute with the US over tax evasion unveiling plans to relax its once untouchable bank secrecy laws to allow banks to make individual settlements with the US over their role in helping Americans evade taxes." (Financial Times) Brazil's central bank tightened interest rates 50bps to 8% despite growth slowing in Q1. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Europe's austerity u-turn isn't enough to create growth. (Financial Times) - Copper users still pay high prices as financing deals lock up supply in warehouses. (Bloomberg) - John Gapper: The disturbing revolving door from high level public service roles to the private sector. (Financial Times) - Oil trader known as 'God' says US shale will only temporarily boost world supplies. (Financial Times) - China big US pork acquisition follows Smithfield's decision to cut controversial additive. (Reuters) - How to make bank bail-ins work. (Reuters) - Japanese housewives cooling on AUD uridashi. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -473.97 (-3.31%) at 13,852 Topix down -28.43 (-2.41%) at 1,150 Hang Seng down -110.37 (-0.49%) at 22,445 US markets S&P 500 down -11.70 (-0.70%) at 1,648 DJIA down -106.59 (-0.69%) at 15,303 Nasdaq down -21.37 (-0.61%) at 3,468 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -22.94 (-1.84%) at 1,224 FTSE100 down -134.84 (-1.99%) at 6,627 CAC 40 down -76.44 (-1.89%) at 3,974 Dax down -144.29 (-1.70%) at 8,337 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.29) $/¥ 101.05 (101.13) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.32 at 102.75 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.10 at 93.23 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +3.40 at 1,395 Copper (Comex) down -0.03 at 3.26 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.13% UK 2.02% Germany 1.54% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.63bps at 82.05bp Markit iTraxx Europe +5.99bps at 100.18bp Markit iTraxx Xover +25.74bps at 410.62bp Markit CDX IG +1.3bps at 77.01bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/05/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/05/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/05/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/05/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.3%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Unemployment Rate s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 29/05/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 6.9% / Consensus: 6.9%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office shows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Normally, a decrease of the figure is bullish for the EUR, while an increase is bearish.

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DE Unemployment Change

Location: Germany

Date: 29/05/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 4K / Consensus: 5K

Notes: The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which encourages economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-29 05:43:45 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for a second day, bolstered by data on US home prices and consumer confidence. The Australian dollar weakened and the yen strengthened. (Bloomberg) EU to ease hard line on austerity for key countries: "In its annual verdict on national budgets of all 27 EU members France, Spain and the Netherlands will be given a waiver on the annual 3 per cent deficit limit. Brussels will also free Italy from intensive fiscal monitoring despite its new prime minister's decision to reverse a series of tax increases imposed by his predecessor." (Financial Times) Murdoch seeks to persuade Wall St on new News Corp: Rupert Murdoch yesterday pitched the collection of publishing, advertising and Australian television assets he will spin off next month as a "chance to do it all over again", and tried to convince investors there were still opportunities to make money in newspapers, saying he had often proved naysayers wrong over the past six decades. The new News Corp, seen by many analysts as the poor relation when compared with the television and film brands that will be renamed 21st Century Fox, would pursue "relentless" cost-cutting at its newspapers and "aggressive digital expansion", said CEO Robert Thomson. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Germany's biggest seven banks are still €14bn short of meeting Basel III capital requirements short of the capital needed to meet incoming Basel III banking rules at the end of last year, according to new estimates by German regulator BaFin. The banks, which include Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, cut their collective capital shortfall from €32bn in the second half of 2012, although none raised equity and BaFin calculates most capital improvements came from spinning off assets and recalculating risk weightings. (Financial Times) Japan to Korea: do your own easing. "Koichi Hamada, an economic adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, told South Korea to adjust its own monetary policies if officials are concerned at the effects of a yen weakened by unprecedented easing." (Bloomberg) Bank auditors urged to question assumptions more closely: Accountants provide "insufficient challenge" to key assumptions of banks calculating loan risks, says UK auditing regulator Financial Reporting Council in its annual report today. (Reuters) Former KPMG partner pleads guilty: "Scott London, a former senior partner with accounting firm KPMG, agreed to plead guilty to securities fraud for his involvement in insider trading, according to an announcement from the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles." (Reuters) Japanese deflation seen to have slowed in April: Japan's core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food but include energy, are forecast to have fallen 0.4% in April from a year earlier, compared to -0.5% in March, according to a Reuters poll. However many economists maintain the two-year time frame for reaching a 2% inflation target is overly ambitious. The surveyed economists also expect 0.6% industrial production growth in April. Both figures are due on Friday. (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Ashoka Mody: Germany must lead by example on fixing its banks. (Financial Times) - Fitch's Chu vs S&P on Chinese banks. (Bloomberg) - Apple hints at more open approach to technology. (Financial Times) - Vinod Khosla won't back down on clean tech. (Wall Street Journal) - Europe's youth need growth to work. (Bloomberg) - The AirBnb tax backlash. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +131.68 (+0.92%) at 14,444 Topix up +20.62 (+1.77%) at 1,189 Hang Seng down -156.90 (-0.68%) at 22,767 US markets S&P 500 up +10.46 (+0.63%) at 1,660 DJIA up +106.29 (+0.69%) at 15,409 Nasdaq up +29.75 (+0.86%) at 3,489 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +16.09 (+1.31%) at 1,246 FTSE100 up +107.67 (+1.62%) at 6,762 CAC 40 up +55.40 (+1.39%) at 4,051 Dax up +97.57 (+1.16%) at 8,481 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.22 (102.36) £/$ 1.50 (1.50) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.14 at 104.09 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.24 at 94.77 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,379 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.31 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.16% UK 1.95% Germany 1.50% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.57bps at 81.42bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.04bps at 94.19bp Markit iTraxx Xover -16.56bps at 384.88bp Markit CDX IG -0.02bps at 75.71bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-28 05:47:08 by Kate Mackenzie "Asian stocks were mixed, with Japanese shares struggling to find direction amid continued volatility due to concerns over rising bond yields. The MSCI Asia Pacific index shed 0.5 per cent, falling for the fifth consecutive session, amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon wind down its bond purchases on the back of the improving US economy." (Financial Times) China targeting 7% growth, says Li: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told German business leaders his country faces "huge challenges" as it pursues an average annual growth rate of 7% this decade. The country's leadership appears increasingly willing to tolerate lower growth. At a press conference in March, Li referred to a target of 7.5% average growth through 2020; however state-media transcripts that day said Li gave a 7% figure. (Bloomberg) European lenders draw down on central bank reserves: 'Cash hoards' stashed at central banks by the 12 biggest European lenders have fallen 19% from their peak. (Wall Street Journal) "Huge disparities in the fees paid by the UK's local authority pension funds to their fund managers have been revealed in Financial Times research, with some councils paying three times as much as funds the same size elsewhere in the country." (Financial Times) New Co-op Bank chief warns of 'no quick fixes' to capital black hole. The Co-operative Group has turned to Niall Booker, a former 30-year veteran of HSBC to lead efforts to resuscitate its banking arm. Booker is due to join within days and the Co-op's directors are set to meet formally this week for the first time since the bank's credit ratings were slashed to junk status. (Financial Times) Valeant in $8.7bn Bausch & Lomb deal: "Valeant, the Bermuda-domiciled speciality pharmaceuticals group, has launched its most ambitious takeover yet with the agreed $8.7bn purchase of Bausch & Lomb, the privately held ophthalmology business." (Financial Times) Club Méditerranée is to be taken over by its biggest shareholders, Axa Private Equity and Chinese conglomerate Fosun, in a friendly deal that values the French holiday resort group at €556m. News of the deal saw Club Med's shares rise 22%. The offer, which was made with the company's management, is a €17 a share – a 23% premium to the Friday closing price. (Financial Times) Cov-lite loans rise: More than half of new leveraged loans issues this year were without covenants, more than double the level of 2007. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - BoJ minutes reveal tensions over 'contradictions'. (Financial Times) - Could tech chiefs follow bankers into a populist backlash? (Financial Times) - China eyes cap on carbon emissions by 2016. (Financial Times) - Britain's four biggest banks will have eliminated about 189,000 jobs from their peak levels, by 2014. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +165.77 (+1.17%) at 14,308 Topix up +19.46 (+1.69%) at 1,174 Hang Seng up +31.81 (+0.14%) at 22,718 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +3.77 (+0.31%) at 1,230 FTSE100 down -42.45 (-0.63%) at 6,654 CAC 40 up +38.37 (+0.97%) at 3,995 Dax up +77.98 (+0.94%) at 8,383 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 101.77 (100.93) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.01 at 102.63 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.60 at 93.55 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,387 Copper (Comex) up +0.01 at 3.30 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.05% UK 1.92% Germany 1.46% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +3.8bps at 82.99bp Markit iTraxx Europe +6.29bps at 98.23bp Markit iTraxx Xover +15.2bps at 401.44bp Markit CDX IG +2.44bps at 75.73bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 24/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -5.7% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

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