DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/05/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 48.1 / Consensus: 48.5

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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US FOMC Minutes

Location: United States

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the US Dollar with the FOMC Minutes

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DE 10-y Bond Auction

Location: Germany

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.28%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the Federal Bonds auctioned by Deutsche Bundesbank. German Federal Bonds have maturities of above then ten years. The yield on the bonos represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

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UK Bank of England Minutes

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

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UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 22/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-22 05:38:20 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks held gains, the Nikkei rose 1.1% and the MSCI rose 0.3%, headed for its highest close since June 2008. (Bloomberg) Bank of Japan maintains asset-buying programme: The May monetary policy statement made no mention of recent rises in JGB yields, and said its decision came amid signs of "positive movement" in the economy. (Financial Times)(Statement) Today: Bank of England MPC minutes; Bernanke's Congressional testimony; FOMC minutes published. FirstGroup, Cable&Wireless report full-year results. Hewlett-Packard Q2, first PC maker of season. Sony shares jumped as much as 12% on a report that its board may discuss spinning off its entertainment division. (Bloomberg) Japanese trade data disappoints. Exports rose in April by 3.8% compared to a year earlier, the second consecutive month of gains, but fell short of median forecasts of a 5.9% increase. Imports rose at a faster rate, 9.4%, and the trade deficit was Y879.9bn, the biggest since comparable records began in 1979. (Reuters) Dimon prevails on dual role: Just 32.2% of JP Morgan shareholders voted for a resolution to split the two positions of chairman and chief executive. Investors instead targeted their disapproval of the whale affair at the bank's independent directors in a vote against the re-election of Ellen Futter, David Cote and James Crown; they received 53.1%, 59.3% and 57.4% votes in favour of their positions, respectively. The bank's shares jumped 1.4% to a six-year high on news of the Dimon vote. (Wall Street Journal) Temasek raises stake in ICBC as Goldman exits. A purchase of ICBC shares yesterday raised Temasek's stake to 7.04% from 6.71%. The Singaporean state-owned investment company also bought a 10% stake in Markit yesterday. (Bloomberg) "Fiat Industrial aims to move its tax residency to the UK from Italy after a merger with US business CNH to take advantage of a lighter fiscal regime, according to a regulatory filing. The move is the latest blow to Italy wherethe new coalition government of Enrico Letta is seeking to staunch an outflow of investment." (Financial Times) Italy considers plan for older workers to 'handoff' to younger generations: Labor Minister Enrico Giovannini said that he planned to discuss the idea of allowing older workers to reduce their work hours while mentoring younger employees with union leaders, who so far have been strongly supportive. (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: The climate sceptics have already won. (Financial Times) - James Mackintosh: Dumb money is arriving, late, to Japanese party. (Financial Times) - Is Sony un-Japanese enough to change? (Reuters) - Steve Cohen fan doesn't care about any of this insider trading probe business. (Reuters) - SAP wants programmers with autism. (Financial Times) - Chris Giles: Scottish skirmishes use little-read economics reports as weapon of choice. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +178.96 (+1.16%) at 15,560 Topix up +8.25 (+0.65%) at 1,279 Hang Seng unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 23,366 US markets S&P 500 up +2.87 (+0.17%) at 1,669 DJIA up +52.30 (+0.34%) at 15,388 Nasdaq up +5.69 (+0.16%) at 3,502 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.13 (+0.09%) at 1,253 FTSE100 up +48.24 (+0.71%) at 6,804 CAC 40 up +13.33 (+0.33%) at 4,036 Dax up +16.37 (+0.19%) at 8,472 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.47 (102.46) £/$ 1.51 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.33 at 103.58 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.49 at 95.69 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,378 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 333.90 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.93% UK 1.91% Germany 1.39% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.08bps at 80.56bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.55bps at 91.84bp Markit iTraxx Xover +3.86bps at 384.09bp Markit CDX IG -0.88bps at 70.12bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK BOE Inflation Letter

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: BOE inflation letter is issued if the earlier-released CPI y/y is above 3.0% or below 1.0%. If CPI is not above 3.0% or below 1.0% this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the CPI release. Otherwise the Tentative mark will be discarded when the exact timing of the letter is known.

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UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 2.3%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

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UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 1.6%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.8% / Consensus: 2.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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DE Producer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.2% / Consensus: -0.1%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 21/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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