EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: -0.1%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.5% / Consensus: 1.0%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-16 05:43:30 by Kate Mackenzie Most Asian stocks fell as a decline in Japanese banks after forecasting lower earnings offset a report that Japan's economy expanded faster than analysts estimated in the first quarter. The Nikkei fell 1.2% and the Topix index was 1.5% lower, but the Hang Seng rose 0.4% and the Kospi was 1% higher. Sumitomo Mitsui, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial and Mizuho have all forecast monetary easing will push earnings lower. (Bloomberg) Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in a year last quarter, with solid growth in consumer spending and exports suggesting Abenomics may already be having tangible effects. Real GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the three months to March, the second consecutive quarter of growth after the last quarter of 2012 was revised upwards to 1%. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 2.7% increase on average. Exports rose 3.8%, imports rose 1% and consumer spending was 0.9% higher. (Financial Times)(Reuters)(FT Alphaville) Lawyers for JPMorgan Chase have demanded that Bloomberg hand over data logs of staff who searched for activities of the bank's employees using Bloomberg terminals since 2008, as it decides whether to take legal action over the matter. The bank's lawyers also sought the role of each Bloomberg employee who had searched for information, and demanded verification that Bloomberg had revoked reporters' access to information about terminal users, as Bloomberg has said it did after a formal complaint from Goldman Sachs last month. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Chinese FDI misses forecasts: Foreign direct investment in China in April was 0.4% higher than a year earlier, short of March's 5.7% gain and Bloomberg consensus estimates of 6.2% growth. (Bloomberg) "RP Martin has removed its chief executive and an executive director from their posts amid a probe into the firm's role in the manipulation of Libor that saw two former employees arrested in December." (Financial Times) David Cameron is "open to all ideas" for returning RBS to private ownership but its finances must improve first, he told reporters on the last day of a three-day visit to the United States. (Reuters) Platts fought an attempt to impose new regulations on world oil benchmarks last year. International regulators' group IOSCO considered new controls after the bank Libor scandal, but Platts resisted the move, arguing it would affects its role, independence and impartiality. (Wall Street Journal) Spanish banks are bracing themselves for a fresh financial hit, amid rising pressure from the Bank of Spain on lenders to write down the value of their €200bn portfolio of restructured loans to the country's troubled companies and struggling households. The move could see NPL ratios rise further. (Financial Times) Banks sue Lisbon over 'toxic' asset allegations: JPMorgan Chase and Banco Santander have filed lawsuits in London Portuguese state-owned companies as a bitter legal tussle intensifies over derivative contracts the Lisbon government has described as "toxic". Portugal's treasury secretary, said in April that Lisbon would take legal action against the two banks after two months of attempts at renegotiating the contracts failed to produce an agreement. (Financial Times) Brazil raised a record R$2.8bn in its first auction of licences for oil exploration blocks in five years, with oil majors including ExxonMobil, Chevron and BP winning blocks, as well as BG Group of the UK. (Financial Times) Warning over SWF opacity: Sovereign wealth funds from resource-rich countries controlling more than $500bn of assets operate with no disclosure, limiting their accountability and increasing the risk of corruption, says the Revenue Watch Institute, a New York-based group backed by charitable foundations and rich-country governments. The group's report showed that eight large funds, including the investment authorities of Qatar, Kuwait and Libya, disclosed no details at all about their assets, transactions or investments. Only 11 of 58 resource-rich countries rated as 'satisfactory' overall. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - The powerful few making oil benchmark prices. (Financial Times) - Janet Yellen's ascension to Fed chair is not assured, despite being favourite. (Financial Times) - Sir Mervyn leaves Bank of England on an upbeat note. (Financial Times) - CEO salaries flat, take-home pay rising. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -174.88 (-1.16%) at 14,921 Topix down -17.68 (-1.41%) at 1,235 Hang Seng up +82.80 (+0.36%) at 23,127 US markets S&P 500 up +8.44 (+0.51%) at 1,659 DJIA up +60.44 (+0.40%) at 15,276 Nasdaq up +9.01 (+0.26%) at 3,472 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +9.04 (+0.73%) at 1,246 FTSE100 up +7.49 (+0.11%) at 6,694 CAC 40 up +16.17 (+0.41%) at 3,982 Dax up +23.31 (+0.28%) at 8,362 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 102.20 (102.21) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.39 at 103.29 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.31 at 93.99 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -1.80 at 1,395 Copper (Comex) down -0.10 at 326.60 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.93% UK 1.93% Germany 1.38% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.06bps at 89.39bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.81bps at 94.19bp Markit iTraxx Xover -2.27bps at 385.73bp Markit CDX IG -1.12bps at 71.63bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 14:00 - 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -$17.8B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

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US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 0.8%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The Bank of England quarterly publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

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UK BoE's Governor King Speech

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The BoE Chairman Mervyn King was born in 1948. He graduated from Kings College, Cambridge, and Harvard. He gives a press conference as to how the BoE observes the current UK economy and the value of GBP. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 7.9% / Consensus: 7.9%

Notes: The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the U.K. labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the U.K. economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is negative.

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UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 0.7%

Notes: The Average Earing Including Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the U.K. economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates "Bullish for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen

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UK Claimant Count Change

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -7K / Consensus: -3K

Notes: The Claimant Count Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

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UK Claimant Count Rate

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 4.6% / Consensus: 4.6%

Notes: The Claimant Count Rate released by the National Statistics is a monthly measure of unemployment in the UK It indicates the health of the UK labor market. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market, while it indicates economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures if the rate is down. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is seen as negative.

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DE Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)

Location: Germany

Date: 15/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.6% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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