US Monthly Budget Statement

Location: United States

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -106.5B / Consensus: 106.5B

Notes: The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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UK Goods Trade Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -�9.416B / Consensus: -�9.000B

Notes: The trade balance released by the is a balance between exports and imports of goods A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP. If a steady demand in exchange for UK exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the GBP.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with UK Trade Balance

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DE Trade Balance s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 10/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �17.1B / Consensus: �16.5B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-10 05:47:26 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks were higher, particularly in Japan where the Nikkei soared nearly 3% and the Topix headed for a new multi-year high as the yen weakened beyond 100 per dollar. Most other Asian benchmarks were weaker with the Hang Seng falling 0.1% and the Kospi down 1.3%, while the ASX rose 0.4%. (Bloomberg) Yen weakens further beyond 100: The currency touched 101.2 against the dollar in Tokyo morning trade, its weakest level since April 6, 2009. Meanwhile current account data published today shows Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds in the past two weeks, after six straight weeks of sales. Such moves will be a key determinant of the yen's future direction. The current account surplus for March was Y1.25tn, the highest in a year, boosted by repatriated earnings. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) ENRC blasted in Kofi Annan report for costing Congo $725m: Deals cut by the FTSE 100 miner are lambasted for "opaque concession trading" in a report to be published today by the Africa Progress Panel, chaired by Kofi Annan. The report calculates that the Democratic Republic of Congo incurred losses of $1.36bn between 2010 and 2012 as a result of the alleged undervaluation of state assets in five mining deals, three of which involve ENRC. (Financial Times) Hester wants to lead RBS to reprivatisation: The bank's CEO signals determination to lead the sell-off, saying he does not regard his job as "time limited by me". Stephen Hester also said the government had been "Overwhelmingly... very good at treading the balance," in contrast to the fractiousness of a few months ago when RBS management was clearly furious at the government's level of interference in its operations. (Financial Times) UK accounting watchdog has launched two KPMG probes: "The Financial Reporting Council said on Thursday it was investigating whether KPMG was independent when it audited car dealer Pendragon's financial statements for 2010 and 2011 as well as looking into a "non-timely disposal of a shareholding" in a client by a KPMG member." It also faces a possible government inquiry over its HBOS audits. (Financial Times) Vietnam said it would cut interest rates to boost economic growth. The central bank will cutthe refinancing rate to 7% from 85 effective May 13, and the discount rate will be reduced to 5% from 6%. (Bloomberg) Schäuble warns of central bank stimulus risks: "German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on Thursday said the wave of stimulus provided by central banks around the world is causing "critical problems," as it may prompt investors to make bad decisions." (Wall Street Journal) Cameron seeks to reassure investors on EU membership: "David Cameron sought to reassure international investors that Britain's future lay within the European Union on Thursday, denouncing as "pessimists" those in his party demanding an immediate exit." (Financial Times) MPs back third Heathrow runway: "The Commons transport select committee rejected the case for a new hub airport in the Thames estuary – as promoted by Boris Johnson, London's mayor – and instead recommended that Heathrow should get a third and possibly a fourth runway." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gillian Tett: US household debt-to-income ratios are now below Europe's. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: The time for UK's decision on EU is now, not 2017. (Financial Times) - Greece and Portugal make bailout progress but unemployment rises. (Wall Street Journal) - Swiss watch sales suffering from China graft crackdown. (Bloomberg) - Lots of central bank cuts, but still not much growth. (Bloomberg) - Who could really watch over Jamie Dimon? (Financial Times) - The trouble with Jens Weidmann. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP (IN JAPAN) Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +419.74 (+2.96%) at 14,611 Topix up +27.73 (+2.35%) at 1,210 Hang Seng down -39.28 (-0.17%) at 23,172 US markets S&P 500 down -6.02 (-0.37%) at 1,627 DJIA down -22.50 (-0.15%) at 15,083 Nasdaq down -4.10 (-0.12%) at 3,409 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.28 (-0.02%) at 1,229 FTSE100 up +9.26 (+0.14%) at 6,593 CAC 40 down -27.70 (-0.70%) at 3,929 Dax up +12.84 (+0.16%) at 8,263 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 100.93 (100.59) £/$ 1.54 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.20 at 104.27 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.25 at 96.14 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -12.10 at 1,457 Copper (Comex) down -0.70 at 333.45 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.84% UK 1.80% Germany 1.27% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.53bps at 90.02bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.11bps at 92.86bp Markit iTraxx Xover +4.61bps at 379.09bp Markit CDX IG +2.11bps at 70.95bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 09/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 324K / Consensus: 335K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/05/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: �375B / Consensus: �375B

Notes: The Asset Purchase Facility is the value of money the BoE plans to create and inject into the economy through open market bond purchases as a way to influence long-term interest rates. This monetary policy tool is also called Quantitative Easing.

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UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/05/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the U.K. economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with BoE Rate Decision

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UK Industrial Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -2.2% / Consensus: -1.6%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by The National Statistics measures outputs of the U.K. factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as po

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UK Manufacturing Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.4% / Consensus: -2.0%

Notes: The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive ( or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or bearish ).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-09 05:46:34 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks outside Japan climbed as the Bank of Korea cut interest rates and News Corp's earnings beat estimates. Japanese stocks were subdued as the yen strengthened. (Bloomberg) Today: The BoE's MPC meets and is expected to maintain its target for asset purchases. Jobless-claims data will be released in the US. Chinese inflation nudged higher in April on the back of soaring vegetable prices but the data also pointed to industrial overcapacity and a fragile economic recovery." The CPI for April was 2.4% higher, year-on-year, after slowing to 2.1% in March. However core inflation remained subdued with the non-food index rising just 1.6%, and producer prices fell deeper into inflationary territory, declining 2.6%, a six-month low. (Financial Times) South Korea's central bank cut rates. The Bank of Korea lowered its benchmark seven-day repo rate to 2.5% from 2.75% today, in the same month as official rates were cut in the eurozone, India and Australia. The strong Wonhas put increasing pressure on the country's exporters in recent months as Japan has successfully weakened its own currency, and the Bank has come under heavy pressure to ease monetary policy from the new administration of President Park Geun-hye. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) New City regulator swoops on banks and asset managers: Site visits to London offices of the world's biggest banks and asset managers are focusing on "transition management" services, such as custodian banks liquidate or move securities portfolios on behalf of pension and retail funds, or when funds are combined or change providers. "The site visits, people familiar with the situation said, are the most dramatic example yet of the Financial Conduct Authority's focus on ensuring that wholesale markets participants protect the interests of end users... the new sweep makes clear that the entire industry is facing scrutiny." (Financial Times) Jobs in both Australia and New Zealand surged according to data released today. "The number of people employed in Australia rose by 50,100 in April from a month earlier, more than four times economists' estimates, and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5 percent, government data showed today. New Zealand employers added a record 38,000 jobs last quarter and its unemployment plunged to a three-year low of 6.2 percent. Economists expected 6.8 percent." The news boosted currencies of both countries, which their respective central banks have been battling to contain. (Bloomberg) Cable channels lift News profits: "Net income at News Corporation climbed to $2.85 billion, or $1.22 a share, compared with $937 million, or 38 cents a share, in the same period last year, the company reported on Wednesday." (New York Times) "JPMorgan Chase has been warned of a probable enforcement action by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the bank acknowledged on Wednesday, the latest in a litany of legal woes for the Wall Street firm. The disclosure in a quarterly filing was made after Jamie Dimon, chief executive, met about 100 officials from the Office of Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Reserve, when he pledged to iron out a string of compliance problems and force his staff to co-operate with regulators." (Financial Times) Green bank directs £2.3bn into UK energy projects: The Green Investment Bank said today that it had committed £635m to almost a dozen wind, waste and energy-efficiency projectsaround the country in its first five months. The deals pulled in another £1.7bn of private funds, meaning that a total of £2.3bn will be invested in 11 UK green projects." (Financial Times) A fire at a garment factory in Dhaka killed at least seven people, highlighting the dangers plaguing the Bangladeshi clothing industry two weeks after another factory collapsed in the country's worst industrial disaster, which killed at least 892 people. (Bloomberg) Former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling's jail term could be shortened to 14 years from 24, under a deal reached with the Department of Justice. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Junk bonds below 5% for first time. (Wall Street Journal)(FT Alphaville) - David Pilling: Japan is revived by China and the post-tsunami spirit. (Financial Times) - Roger Altman: Bond markets are to blame for austerity, not politicians. (Financial Times) - Goldman said to earn $500m from arranging Malaysian bond sale. (Bloomberg) - European gas-fired plants mothballed amid cheap US coal influx. (Wall Street Journal) - Lex In-Depth on HP and Autonomy. (Financial Times) - Does splitting the CEO/chairman role actually help? (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +17.08 (+0.12%) at 14,303 Topix down -4.21 (-0.35%) at 1,190 Hang Seng down -64.83 (-0.28%) at 23,180 US markets S&P 500 up +6.73 (+0.41%) at 1,633 DJIA up +48.92 (+0.32%) at 15,105 Nasdaq up +16.64 (+0.49%) at 3,413 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.49 (+0.70%) at 1,229 FTSE100 up +26.18 (+0.40%) at 6,583 CAC 40 up +34.96 (+0.89%) at 3,956 Dax up +67.93 (+0.83%) at 8,250 Currencies €/$ 1.32 (1.32) $/¥ 98.77 (98.99) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.11 at 104.45 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.03 at 96.65 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -2.20 at 1,472 Copper (Comex) down -3.05 at 334.05 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.81% UK 1.78% Germany 1.27% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.06bps at 89.49bp Markit iTraxx Europe +2.23bps at 91.75bp Markit iTraxx Xover +3.56bps at 374.48bp Markit CDX IG -1.78bps at 68.84bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US 10-Year Note Auction

Location: United States

Date: 08/05/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.795%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the notes auctioned by US Department of Treasury. US notes have maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years and pay interest every six months. The yield on the bonds represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

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DE Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 08/05/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.8% / Consensus: -3.8%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-08 05:45:58 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for a third day, as optimism grew that central-bank stimulus will boost profits. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.9% and was headed for a five-year record close. The Nikkei was 0.8% higher, the Hang Seng rose 0.6% and the Kospi was flat. Earlier, the Dow closed above 15,000 points for the first time. (Bloomberg)(Wall Street Journal) "China's export growth unexpectedly accelerated in April even as shipments to the US and Europe fell, spurring renewed skepticism of data under investigation by the government. Shipments abroad rose 14.7 percent, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing, compared with the 9.2 percent median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Imports advanced 16.8 percent, while the trade surplus of $18.2 billion was higher than projected." (Bloomberg) A second shareholder advisory group recommended JP Morgan CEO and chairman Jamie Dimon be stripped of his dual role, just weeks ahead of a crucial shareholder vote on the matter. On Tuesday Glass Lewis followed ISS, both shareholder advisory firms, in calling for investors to vote for splitting the roles. The fate of the vote could rest with a third firm, Governance for Owners, which votes on behalf of the bank's biggest shareholder, BlackRock. (Financial Times)(NYT DealBook) Santander car finance unit IPO planned: "Santander and a trio of private equity firms are planning to list the US automotive finance unit of the Spanish banking group in the coming months in a deal that could value the company at between $7bn and $9bn, people familiar with the matter say... Santander owns about 65 per cent of the finance company and its founder, Tom Dundon, holds roughly 11 per cent. The remaining shares were bought by Centerbridge Partners, KKR and Warburg Pincus for a total of $1bn." (Financial Times) Qatar has sounded out International Airlines Group about buying a 12% stake held by Bankia, the troubled Spanish bank. Two people familiar with the situation said Qatar had made an informal approach to IAG to ask whether the airline group would welcome the Gulf country shareholder. One of the people, plus a third source, said enquiries were made a few months ago, and the CEO of state-controlled Qatar Airways said his company was not interested in buying Bankia's stake. (Financial Times) Coty's IPO investor roadshow is expected to kick off in the coming weeks, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley leading the share offering. (Financial Times) Revenues at Alibaba surged by 80% in the final three months of 2012, keeping the Chinese ecommerce company on track for what could turn out to be one of the biggest stock market debuts by a tech company either later this year or early next. The growthwas revealed in a quarterly regulatory filing by Yahoo, which owns 24% of the Chinese company. Expectations for a blockbuster IPO have been a major factor underpinning Yahoo's own stock market value, which has jumped by more than 70% since last August. (Financial Times) Portugal's first bond issue since its bailout two years ago saw strong demand, with the 10-year debt that raised €3bn over-subscribed by three times according to finance minister Vitor Gaspar. He said the country's financing needs for this year were already met and yesterday's issue was "pre-financing" for 2014. The yield was fixed at the midswaps market rate plus 400bps, offering a return of about 5.7%. (Financial Times) "Walt Disney Co reported a 32 percent increase in profit that beat Wall Street expectations, boosted by higher spending and attendance at U.S. theme parks, and the movie box office success of "Oz the Great and Powerful."" (Reuters) Institutional funds' ETF use grows: 18% of US institutional funds now use ETFs, up from 14% in 2012, according to 970 institutional investors surveyed by Greenwich. (Financial Times) "Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is prepared to offer more shares in his Kingdom Holding investment company to fund a big acquisition to expand his sprawling banking-to-hotels empire. The prince, who has owned 95 per cent of Kingdom since an initial public offering in 2007, said he would never sell his shares in the market, but would be comfortable allowing his stake to be diluted if he found the deals to justify doing so." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Forcing the rest of eurozone to mimic Germany's adjustment will make stagnation likely. (Financial Times) - Most celebrated hedge funds have mixed record on conference investment tips. (Financial Times) - Nat Rothschild rues his 'terrible mistake' with Bumi. (Bloomberg) - Samsung's Apple-like cash pile problem. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +100.39 (+0.71%) at 14,281 Topix up +5.20 (+0.44%) at 1,194 Hang Seng up +144.00 (+0.62%) at 23,191 US markets S&P 500 up +8.46 (+0.52%) at 1,626 DJIA up +87.31 (+0.58%) at 15,056 Nasdaq up +3.66 (+0.11%) at 3,397 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +3.31 (+0.27%) at 1,221 FTSE100 up +35.84 (+0.55%) at 6,557 CAC 40 up +14.28 (+0.37%) at 3,921 Dax up +69.70 (+0.86%) at 8,182 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 98.94 (98.96) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.04 at 104.36 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.21 at 95.83 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +5.50 at 1,455 Copper (Comex) up +1.65 at 331.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.78% UK 1.81% Germany 1.29% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.04bps at 89.43bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2bps at 89.52bp Markit iTraxx Xover -6.79bps at 370.92bp Markit CDX IG -1.78bps at 68.84bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Treasury Sec Lew Speech

Location: United States

Date: 07/05/2013

Time: 21:00 - 22:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Jacob Lew is the US Secretary of the Treasury, and among other matters, his faculties include communicating the US President's economic policies. Therefore, his words may affect the forex market, as investors attempt to gauge the Presidential stance on key economic issues. His speech impact is proportionally related to the subject under discussion, and only those particularly relevant for the FX markets are being shown in this calendar.

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