US 10-Year Note Auction

Location: United States

Date: 08/05/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.795%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the notes auctioned by US Department of Treasury. US notes have maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years and pay interest every six months. The yield on the bonds represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

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DE Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 08/05/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.8% / Consensus: -3.8%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-08 05:45:58 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for a third day, as optimism grew that central-bank stimulus will boost profits. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.9% and was headed for a five-year record close. The Nikkei was 0.8% higher, the Hang Seng rose 0.6% and the Kospi was flat. Earlier, the Dow closed above 15,000 points for the first time. (Bloomberg)(Wall Street Journal) "China's export growth unexpectedly accelerated in April even as shipments to the US and Europe fell, spurring renewed skepticism of data under investigation by the government. Shipments abroad rose 14.7 percent, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing, compared with the 9.2 percent median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Imports advanced 16.8 percent, while the trade surplus of $18.2 billion was higher than projected." (Bloomberg) A second shareholder advisory group recommended JP Morgan CEO and chairman Jamie Dimon be stripped of his dual role, just weeks ahead of a crucial shareholder vote on the matter. On Tuesday Glass Lewis followed ISS, both shareholder advisory firms, in calling for investors to vote for splitting the roles. The fate of the vote could rest with a third firm, Governance for Owners, which votes on behalf of the bank's biggest shareholder, BlackRock. (Financial Times)(NYT DealBook) Santander car finance unit IPO planned: "Santander and a trio of private equity firms are planning to list the US automotive finance unit of the Spanish banking group in the coming months in a deal that could value the company at between $7bn and $9bn, people familiar with the matter say... Santander owns about 65 per cent of the finance company and its founder, Tom Dundon, holds roughly 11 per cent. The remaining shares were bought by Centerbridge Partners, KKR and Warburg Pincus for a total of $1bn." (Financial Times) Qatar has sounded out International Airlines Group about buying a 12% stake held by Bankia, the troubled Spanish bank. Two people familiar with the situation said Qatar had made an informal approach to IAG to ask whether the airline group would welcome the Gulf country shareholder. One of the people, plus a third source, said enquiries were made a few months ago, and the CEO of state-controlled Qatar Airways said his company was not interested in buying Bankia's stake. (Financial Times) Coty's IPO investor roadshow is expected to kick off in the coming weeks, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley leading the share offering. (Financial Times) Revenues at Alibaba surged by 80% in the final three months of 2012, keeping the Chinese ecommerce company on track for what could turn out to be one of the biggest stock market debuts by a tech company either later this year or early next. The growthwas revealed in a quarterly regulatory filing by Yahoo, which owns 24% of the Chinese company. Expectations for a blockbuster IPO have been a major factor underpinning Yahoo's own stock market value, which has jumped by more than 70% since last August. (Financial Times) Portugal's first bond issue since its bailout two years ago saw strong demand, with the 10-year debt that raised €3bn over-subscribed by three times according to finance minister Vitor Gaspar. He said the country's financing needs for this year were already met and yesterday's issue was "pre-financing" for 2014. The yield was fixed at the midswaps market rate plus 400bps, offering a return of about 5.7%. (Financial Times) "Walt Disney Co reported a 32 percent increase in profit that beat Wall Street expectations, boosted by higher spending and attendance at U.S. theme parks, and the movie box office success of "Oz the Great and Powerful."" (Reuters) Institutional funds' ETF use grows: 18% of US institutional funds now use ETFs, up from 14% in 2012, according to 970 institutional investors surveyed by Greenwich. (Financial Times) "Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is prepared to offer more shares in his Kingdom Holding investment company to fund a big acquisition to expand his sprawling banking-to-hotels empire. The prince, who has owned 95 per cent of Kingdom since an initial public offering in 2007, said he would never sell his shares in the market, but would be comfortable allowing his stake to be diluted if he found the deals to justify doing so." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Forcing the rest of eurozone to mimic Germany's adjustment will make stagnation likely. (Financial Times) - Most celebrated hedge funds have mixed record on conference investment tips. (Financial Times) - Nat Rothschild rues his 'terrible mistake' with Bumi. (Bloomberg) - Samsung's Apple-like cash pile problem. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +100.39 (+0.71%) at 14,281 Topix up +5.20 (+0.44%) at 1,194 Hang Seng up +144.00 (+0.62%) at 23,191 US markets S&P 500 up +8.46 (+0.52%) at 1,626 DJIA up +87.31 (+0.58%) at 15,056 Nasdaq up +3.66 (+0.11%) at 3,397 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +3.31 (+0.27%) at 1,221 FTSE100 up +35.84 (+0.55%) at 6,557 CAC 40 up +14.28 (+0.37%) at 3,921 Dax up +69.70 (+0.86%) at 8,182 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 98.94 (98.96) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.04 at 104.36 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.21 at 95.83 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +5.50 at 1,455 Copper (Comex) up +1.65 at 331.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.78% UK 1.81% Germany 1.29% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.04bps at 89.43bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2bps at 89.52bp Markit iTraxx Xover -6.79bps at 370.92bp Markit CDX IG -1.78bps at 68.84bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Treasury Sec Lew Speech

Location: United States

Date: 07/05/2013

Time: 21:00 - 22:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Jacob Lew is the US Secretary of the Treasury, and among other matters, his faculties include communicating the US President's economic policies. Therefore, his words may affect the forex market, as investors attempt to gauge the Presidential stance on key economic issues. His speech impact is proportionally related to the subject under discussion, and only those particularly relevant for the FX markets are being shown in this calendar.

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US Consumer Credit Change

Location: United States

Date: 07/05/2013

Time: 20:00 - 21:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $18.14B / Consensus: $15.00B

Notes: The Consumer Credit released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is an amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

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DE Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 07/05/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: -2.9%

Notes: The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-07 05:47:51 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for a second day after ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated the bank's readiness to cut interest rates further. The MSCI Asia Pacific was about 1% higher and the Nikkei, which was closed yesterday for a holiday, rose more than 3%, breaching 14,000 for the first time since June 2008. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) China wants to water down key World Bank report: "According to people close to the matter, China wants to eliminate the ranking of countries in the Doing Business report, which compares business regulations – such as the difficulty of starting a company – in 185 different nations." China and other critics, including trade unions, international aid charities and some other developing countries, last year successfully pushed for an independent review of the report. "But a number of people involved in the process complain" that two longstanding critics of the report are advisers to the panel, which is due to report by the end of May. This year the report ranked China 91st out of 185 economies. (Financial Times) The IMF warned that Greece's debt remains "much too high" and European commitments to lighten it are welcome. The report highlights the need for future "official sector involvement" in Greece's bailout. (Wall Street Journal) Draghi talked up ECB's readiness to act in a speech yesterday: ""We will watch all the incoming data on the euro-area economy in the next weeks and if necessary we'll be ready to take further action," Draghi said, departing from a prepared speech at LUISS university in Rome to emphasize a point made last week at the ECB's monthly news conference." (Wall Street Journal) Australia's central bank cut rates to a record low. The RBA cut by 25bps to 2.75%. (Statement) "Microsoft is preparing to reverse course over key elements of its Windows 8 operating system, marking one of the most prominent admissions of failure for a new mass-market consumer product since Coca-Cola's New Coke fiasco nearly 30 years ago." (Financial Times) Rio Tinto plans to press ahead with a multibillion-dollar expansion of its iron ore mines in Western Australia barring a significant change to the supply-demand balance for the steelmaking commodity or a further increase in production costs. Sam Walsh, Rio chief executive, told institutional investors at meetings in Sydney this week that a $5bn plan to increase annual output from its Pilbara mines to 360m tonnes by 2015 would be put before the board of the Anglo-Australian resources group for approval later this year, according to two people present at the briefing. (Financial Times) Former KPMG auditor friend agrees to plead guilty: "The California jeweler who gave a former KPMG auditor cash, an expensive watch and concert tickets in exchange for inside information about public companies agreed on Monday to plead guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to court papers. Bryan Shaw, the jeweler who took tips on Herbalife, Skechers and other companies from his one-time golfing buddy Scott London, agreed to pay around $1.3 million in restitution and will continue to cooperate with the government as part of a plea deal with federal prosecutors, according to the documents." (Reuters) Protests mount on use of BP Gulf compensation money: Out of $1bn promised in 2011 for early restoration of the Gulf of Mexico coast after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, $85.5m was allocated to building a convention centre in Alabama to replace a lodge that was wrecked by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Several other projects are not directly related to damage caused by the spill. (Financial Times) Three JP Morgan investors are yet to be persuaded on backing the company in a vote on whether Jamie Dimon should retain his dual role of chairman and chief exectuive. BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity Investments, who together hold more than 12% of the company's shares, all remain undecided, said people close to the firms. The votes will be tallied on May 21. (Wall Street Journal) New York attorney general Eric Schneiderman plans to sue Bank of America and Wells Fargo over claims they violated terms of the National Mortgage Settlement, a sweeping $26bn pact brokered last year between five of the nation's biggest banks and 49 state attorneys general. He said the two banks didn't follow guidelines on how banks field and process requests from homeowners trying to modify their mortgages, which formed part of the settlement's terms. (NYT DealBook) US regulators eyeing Bitcoin supervision: The currency "is for sure something we need to explore", Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners at the CFTC told the Financial Times. A person familiar with the CFTC's thinking said that the regulator is "seriously" examining the issue. (Financial Times) Biggest EU economies back moves to support carbon prices: "Ministers from Germany, France and the UK, along with those from four other countries, have issued a joint statement, seen by the Financial Times, declaring that it is time to end "myths over the potential costs and risks" of bolstering the EU's battered emissions trading system." However confusion remains over Germany's position. (Financial Times) US pension fund sues big banks over CDS 'dominance': The class action antitrust suit filed by the Sheet Metal Workers Local No. 33 Cleveland District Pension Plan pension fund accuses banks including Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan of engaging in "anti-competitive conduct" when it comes to CDS contracts. The fund said it had entered into CDS deals with Citigroup. It claims buy-side CDS market participants must "participate in an inefficient market" due to the dominance of large financial institutions. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - European banks' losses must be recognised. (Financial Times) - Gideon Rachman: China's dream smothered in toxic smog. (Financial Times) - Andrew Hill: Graduates are still lining up to become bankers. (Financial Times) - Shortage of able-bodied men in quake zone illustrates China's demographic threat. (Bloomberg) - US mortgage lenders have eased standards - slightly - for prime borrowers. (Wall Street Journal) - How an Indian ponzi scheme won a political bailout. (Bloomberg) - Creepy but useful Google Now. (BusinessWeek) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +440.41 (+3.22%) at 14,134 Topix up +31.86 (+2.76%) at 1,185 Hang Seng up +31.13 (+0.14%) at 22,946 US markets S&P 500 up +3.08 (+0.19%) at 1,618 DJIA down -5.07 (-0.03%) at 14,969 Nasdaq up +14.34 (+0.42%) at 3,393 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.97 (-0.08%) at 1,218 FTSE100 up +60.75 (+0.94%) at 6,521 CAC 40 down -5.91 (-0.15%) at 3,907 Dax down -10.21 (-0.13%) at 8,112 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.03 (99.33) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.39 at 105.07 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.68 at 95.48 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -3.80 at 1,464 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 331.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.75% UK 1.73% Germany 1.25% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.16bps at 90.47bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.03bps at 91.52bp Markit iTraxx Xover -9.67bps at 377.71bp Markit CDX IG -0.86bps at 70.62bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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EMU ECB President Draghi's Speech

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 06/05/2013

Time: 14:00 - 15:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The European Central Bank's president Mario Draghi was born in 1947 in Rome, Italy. Graduated of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Draghi became the president of the European Central Bank in 2011. As part of his job in the Governing Council he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Sentix Investor Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 06/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -17.3 / Consensus: -15.2

Notes: With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually a higher reading is seen as positive for the Euro zone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with ESI

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DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 06/05/2013

Time: 8:53 - 9:53

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 50.9 / Consensus: 49.2

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-06 05:45:14 by Kate Mackenzie Asian markets rose on Monday, bouyed by the better than expected US jobs data on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific index excluding Japan advanced 0.9%, with Australia's S&P 200 index 0.6% higher and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rising 1%. Markets in Japan and Thailand were closed for a public holiday. Malaysia's currency rallied after the ruling coalition won re-election. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) China's services sector growth slowed sharply in April, according to the HSBC/Markit services PMI survey. The April PMI was 51.1, a big fall from 54.3 in March and the lowest figure since August 2011. Staffing levels in the sector were below 50 for the first time since January 2009. (Reuters) "Brussels is increasing efforts to clamp down on tax avoidance by wealthy investors, including private equity partners and hedge funds, by forcing all 27 EU members to share confidential information on individuals' investment income and capital gains for the first time." (Financial Times) Think-tank calls for 'Tell Syd' style RBS and Lloyds sell-off: George Osborne's favourite think-tank, the Policy Exchange, will this month urge him to reprivatise RBS and Lloyds Banking Group through a mass share distribution to the public. Senior Conservatives, who believe it will help prepare public opinion for a big share handout before the 2015 general election. (Financial Times) Malaysia's ruling Barisan Nasional coalition won re-election on Sunday, fending off a strong challenge from a resurgent opposition. Investors on Monday cheered the election victory by sending the country's stock market up by over 7% at the open amid the prospect of political continuity and the extension of the government's gradual economic reforms. (Financial Times) The Obama administration has signalled support for more plants to export liquefied natural gas, as the US embraces its surging energy production as a key new element of its national security policy. Only one plant has been approved to export LNG to non-FTA countries, but another 19 applications for approval have been made and are being opposed by some US manufacturers and chemicals sectors who fear it will raise gas prices. Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important consideration in domestic energy policy. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Forex trades give investment banks an information edge. A study by the Cass Business School in London has shown that investment banks can make windfall profits by copying customers' foreign exchange trades, raising fresh concerns about the lack of transparency in the $4tn, mostly-over the counter forex market. "Using historical data on customers' trades at UBS, the authors of the study, which was published by the Bank for International Settlements, found that if a bank developed a portfolio to mimic clients' trades it would make an average of 10 per cent a year." (Financial Times) No big news at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting: Warren Buffett was probed on succession by a bearish invitee, short seller Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners, but remained insistent that his son would become non-executive chairman, and that a decision had been made on who would replace Buffett senior himself, although it wouldn't be revealed. Buffett said he remained uninterested in gold despite its recent falls. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal)(Bloomberg) Greek finance minister Yannis Stournaras said "the worst is over" and that the country had turned a corner, ahead of the release of an IMF report today which local media reports say will praise improvements in tax collection. Stournaras told Greek newspapers on the weekend the country could be in a position to return to international debt markets by May 2014. (The Telegraph) "Ten of thousands of far-left French protesters marched to denounce economic austerity on Sunday to mark the end of President Francois Hollande's first year in office." (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - British skyline gap: More cranes in London than rest of the country put together. (Financial Times) - John Authers: The energy efficiency 'mega trend'. (Financial Times) - Treasuries bears have been wrong-footed this year, again. (Wall Street Journal) - Non-QE growth is needed to curb asset distortion. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Münchau: Don't expect a substantial departure from austerity in Europe. (Financial Times) - Ruchir Sharma: The oil and gold booms are both over. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -105.31 (-0.76%) at 13,694 Topix down -5.09 (-0.44%) at 1,153 Hang Seng up +219.60 (+0.97%) at 22,910 US markets S&P 500 up +16.83 (+1.05%) at 1,614 DJIA up +142.38 (+0.96%) at 14,974 Nasdaq up +38.01 (+1.14%) at 3,379 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +12.07 (+1.00%) at 1,219 FTSE100 up +60.75 (+0.94%) at 6,521 CAC 40 up +54.19 (+1.40%) at 3,913 Dax up +160.58 (+2.02%) at 8,122 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.06 (99.04) £/$ 1.56 (1.56) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.55 at 104.74 Light Crude (Nymex) up +1.02 at 96.63 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +11.20 at 1,476 Copper (Comex) down -2.25 at 329.10 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.74% UK 1.73% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -3.16bps at 90.47bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.03bps at 91.52bp Markit iTraxx Xover -9.67bps at 377.71bp Markit CDX IG -2.79bps at 71.48bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.9%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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US Nonfarm Payrolls

Location: United States

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 88K / Consensus: 150K

Notes: The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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US Unemployment Rate

Location: United States

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 7.6% / Consensus: 7.6%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

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