EMU Producer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: -0.2%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Eurostat is an index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). Generally, a high reading is seen positive ( or bullish ) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or bearish ).

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EMU Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3% / Consensus: 0.6%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Eurostat is an index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). Generally, a high reading is seen positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Markit Services PMI

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 03/05/2013

Time: 9:28 - 10:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 52.4 / Consensus: 52.4

Notes: The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. Traders want the highest possible reading as that will be taken as positive for the GBP. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-03 05:43:00 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days as investors awaited the release of US jobs data and reacted to the ECB's rate cut. Metals gained, while the dollar weakened. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan was 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng rose 0.7%. Japan's markets are closed. Bloomberg's analyst survey median forecast is for a 140,000 gain in April in official US payrolls later today. (Bloomberg) RBS to send clearest signal on reprivatisation: Sir Philip Hampton, chairman, will announce today that the bank will be ready to start preparing information on a share sale as soon as next year. RBS had previously indicated that next year would be a suitable time to consider the future of the government's 82% stake. Although this announcement will be the strongest signal yet that RBS is on the final stretch of its massive restructuring, Sir Philip will not be calling on the government to begin a reprivatisation. (Financial Times) Three frontrunners have emerged to take the reins at Shell when Peter Voser steps down as CEO next year. "The three are Marvin Odum, who heads Shell's exploration and production – or upstream – division in the Americas; Andy Brown, who runs all other upstream operations; and Simon Henry, the group's chief financial officer, who plays a key role in crafting Shell's corporate strategy." (Financial Times) Bharti Airtel to receive $1.26bn Qatari investment after missing profit estimates: "Bharti will sell 199.9 million new shares to the Qatar endowment, representing a 5 percent stake, according to an e- mailed statement today. Shares rose as much as 4.7 percent in Mumbai trading." (Bloomberg) JP Morgan devised 'manipulative schemes': "Government investigators have found that JPMorgan Chase devised "manipulative schemes" that transformed "money-losing power plants into powerful profit centers," and that one of its most senior executives gave "false and misleading statements" under oath." The bank is under by at least eight US regulators. (New York Times) Macquarie Group has recorded an increase in annual profits for the first time in three years and announced a big dividend increase, sending shares in the Australian investment bank to their highest level since 2010. (Financial Times) Intel has promoted 30-year veteran Brian Krzanich to CEO, as the world's largest chipmaker by sales navigates a post-PC world dominated by smartphones and other mobile devices. In contrast to his predecessor Paul Otellini, who was the first non-engineer to lead Intel, Krzanich has been heavily focused on the manufacturing operations. (Financial Times) Italy wants to join 'virtuous' deficit club: Fabrizio Saccomanni, finance minister in the country's new coalition government, talked of joining a "small group of virtuous countries" that have met Europe's budget targets said Italy is committed to remaining within that limit. Saccomanni and Enrico Letta, the new prime minister, have stressed their commitment to keeping Italy within the 3% budget deficit limit this year, even while promising to cancel tax increases imposed by Mario Monti's previous technocrat government. (Financial Times) Slovenia issued $3.5bn of bonds on Thursday, ameliorating concerns that it will have to be bailed out by the eurozone to pay for its banking sector clean-up. The bond sale had been scheduled for Tuesday but was delayed after Moody's that day cut the country's credit rating to "junk". However demand for the five and 1o year bonds was even stronger than when the book had first been closed. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Samuel Brittan: Reinhart & Rogoff and the spell of magic numbers. (Financial Times) - Steve Jobs would've bought Tesla. (Bloomberg) - William Pesek: Abenomics and the second 100 days curse. (Bloomberg) - The Pentagon approved Blackberry 10s and Samsung phones for use on its network. (Bloomberg) - How China's flexing of its anti-trust muscle is causing headaches for global mergers. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -105.31 (-0.76%) at 13,694 Topix down -5.09 (-0.44%) at 1,153 Hang Seng up +155.40 (+0.69%) at 22,824 US markets S&P 500 up +14.89 (+0.94%) at 1,598 DJIA up +130.63 (+0.89%) at 14,832 Nasdaq up +41.49 (+1.26%) at 3,341 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +5.00 (+0.42%) at 1,207 FTSE100 up +9.42 (+0.15%) at 6,461 CAC 40 up +2.01 (+0.05%) at 3,859 Dax up +48.00 (+0.61%) at 7,962 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.95 (97.95) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.22 at 102.63 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.19 at 93.80 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +4.50 at 1,472 Copper (Comex) up +4.55 at 315.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.62% UK 1.63% Germany 1.17% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.3bps at 93.63bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.75bps at 95.55bp Markit iTraxx Xover -15.55bps at 387.38bp Markit CDX IG -3.5bps at 74.27bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 339K / Consensus: 346K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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US Trade Balance

Location: United States

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -$43.0B / Consensus: -$42.2B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for US exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading US Dollar with US Trade Balance

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EMU ECB Interest Rate Decision

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 12:45 - 13:45

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.75% / Consensus: 0.50%

Notes: ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with the ECB Rate Decision

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UK PMI Construction

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 47.2 / Consensus: 48.0

Notes: The PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics shows business conditions in the UK construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing sector does A result that values above 50 signals appreciates (or is bullish for ) the GBP, whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 8:53 - 9:53

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.0 / Consensus: 47.9

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Location: United States

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.25% / Consensus: 0.25%

Notes: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. Generally speaking, if the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article -Suggested Strategies to trade the US dollar with this economic release.

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US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

Location: United States

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Following the Fed's rate decision, Ben Bernanke gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

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US ADP Employment Change

Location: United States

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 13:15 - 14:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 158K / Consensus: 150K

Notes: The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 9:28 - 10:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 48.3 / Consensus: 48.5

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-01 05:48:57 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell, led by Japan, and the yen strengthened slightly. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.3% lower and the yen climbed 0.2% to 97.29 per dollar. (Bloomberg) Osborne warns BoE not to curb growth in pursuing stability: "George Osborne urged the Bank of England not to undermine recovery through an overzealous focus on banking stability, in an attempt to put growth at the heart of the new governor's mandate. The chancellor told the bank's Financial Policy Committee to give "due weight to the impact of its actions on the near-term economic recovery" when carrying out its primary job of maintaining financial stability." (Financial Times) The Fed is considering a stricter cap on bank leverage, targeting largest lenders. People familiar with the matter say Fed officials have discussed increasing the amount of required equity capital above the 3% of assets level agreed internationally. The move comes amid growing concern that risk-weighting of assets will undermine Basel III goals. (Financial Times) China's manufacturing growth slows further: China's official PMI fell to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The slowdown in manufacturing growth appeared to be driven mostly by a slump in new export orders, which fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.6 in April, compared to 50.9 in March. (Financial Times) Bain and Golden Gate leadin BMC bid: "A private equity group made up of Bain Capital LLC and Golden Gate Capital Corp has emerged as the lead contender to buy BMC Software Inc for more than $6.5 billion, three people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday." (Reuters) ENRC listing faced 11th-hour hitch: "The controversial London flotation of Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation in 2007 faced an 11th hour hurdle after lawyers and auditors found evidence that financial records at the Kazakhstan-based miner had been falsified or destroyed, according to people familiar with the matter." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: The Baltic states are no model for larger European economies. (Financial Times) - The incredibly large remuneration of Spain's top bankers. (Financial Times) - Where are the smartphone productivity gains? (Wall Street Journal) - Gazprom's European customers gain leverage via shale-displaced US coal. (Wall Street Journal) - May Day in Europe, with 26m unemployed. (Financial Times) - Jacob Weisberg: How Amazon relented on US state sales tax. (Financial Times) - Elysée Palace reconfigures wine cellar, plans to give proceeds to state coffers. (Financial Times) - US Mint gold coin sales are really high. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -54.03 (-0.39%) at 13,807 Topix down -5.90 (-0.51%) at 1,159 Hang Seng up +156.24 (+0.69%) at 22,737 US markets S&P 500 up +3.96 (+0.25%) at 1,598 DJIA up +21.05 (+0.14%) at 14,840 Nasdaq up +21.77 (+0.66%) at 3,329 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -2.23 (-0.19%) at 1,201 FTSE100 down -27.90 (-0.43%) at 6,430 CAC 40 down -11.93 (-0.31%) at 3,857 Dax up +40.21 (+0.51%) at 7,914 Currencies €/$ 1.32 (1.32) $/¥ 97.31 (97.41) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.93 at 101.44 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.43 at 93.03 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.40 at 1,475 Copper (Comex) down -0.85 at 317.90 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.67% UK 1.69% Germany 1.21% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.69bps at 94.6bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.65bps at 98.79bp Markit iTraxx Xover -10.49bps at 397.35bp Markit CDX IG -1.28bps at 75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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