US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 339K / Consensus: 346K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

US Trade Balance

Location: United States

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -$43.0B / Consensus: -$42.2B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for US exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading US Dollar with US Trade Balance

#END

EMU ECB Interest Rate Decision

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 12:45 - 13:45

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.75% / Consensus: 0.50%

Notes: ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with the ECB Rate Decision

#END

UK PMI Construction

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 47.2 / Consensus: 48.0

Notes: The PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics shows business conditions in the UK construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing sector does A result that values above 50 signals appreciates (or is bullish for ) the GBP, whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 02/05/2013

Time: 8:53 - 9:53

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.0 / Consensus: 47.9

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

#END

US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Location: United States

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.25% / Consensus: 0.25%

Notes: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. Generally speaking, if the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article -Suggested Strategies to trade the US dollar with this economic release.

#END

US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

Location: United States

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Following the Fed's rate decision, Ben Bernanke gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

#END

US ADP Employment Change

Location: United States

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 13:15 - 14:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 158K / Consensus: 150K

Notes: The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

UK Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 9:28 - 10:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 48.3 / Consensus: 48.5

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-05-01 05:48:57 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell, led by Japan, and the yen strengthened slightly. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.3% lower and the yen climbed 0.2% to 97.29 per dollar. (Bloomberg) Osborne warns BoE not to curb growth in pursuing stability: "George Osborne urged the Bank of England not to undermine recovery through an overzealous focus on banking stability, in an attempt to put growth at the heart of the new governor's mandate. The chancellor told the bank's Financial Policy Committee to give "due weight to the impact of its actions on the near-term economic recovery" when carrying out its primary job of maintaining financial stability." (Financial Times) The Fed is considering a stricter cap on bank leverage, targeting largest lenders. People familiar with the matter say Fed officials have discussed increasing the amount of required equity capital above the 3% of assets level agreed internationally. The move comes amid growing concern that risk-weighting of assets will undermine Basel III goals. (Financial Times) China's manufacturing growth slows further: China's official PMI fell to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The slowdown in manufacturing growth appeared to be driven mostly by a slump in new export orders, which fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.6 in April, compared to 50.9 in March. (Financial Times) Bain and Golden Gate leadin BMC bid: "A private equity group made up of Bain Capital LLC and Golden Gate Capital Corp has emerged as the lead contender to buy BMC Software Inc for more than $6.5 billion, three people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday." (Reuters) ENRC listing faced 11th-hour hitch: "The controversial London flotation of Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation in 2007 faced an 11th hour hurdle after lawyers and auditors found evidence that financial records at the Kazakhstan-based miner had been falsified or destroyed, according to people familiar with the matter." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: The Baltic states are no model for larger European economies. (Financial Times) - The incredibly large remuneration of Spain's top bankers. (Financial Times) - Where are the smartphone productivity gains? (Wall Street Journal) - Gazprom's European customers gain leverage via shale-displaced US coal. (Wall Street Journal) - May Day in Europe, with 26m unemployed. (Financial Times) - Jacob Weisberg: How Amazon relented on US state sales tax. (Financial Times) - Elysée Palace reconfigures wine cellar, plans to give proceeds to state coffers. (Financial Times) - US Mint gold coin sales are really high. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -54.03 (-0.39%) at 13,807 Topix down -5.90 (-0.51%) at 1,159 Hang Seng up +156.24 (+0.69%) at 22,737 US markets S&P 500 up +3.96 (+0.25%) at 1,598 DJIA up +21.05 (+0.14%) at 14,840 Nasdaq up +21.77 (+0.66%) at 3,329 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -2.23 (-0.19%) at 1,201 FTSE100 down -27.90 (-0.43%) at 6,430 CAC 40 down -11.93 (-0.31%) at 3,857 Dax up +40.21 (+0.51%) at 7,914 Currencies €/$ 1.32 (1.32) $/¥ 97.31 (97.41) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.93 at 101.44 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.43 at 93.03 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.40 at 1,475 Copper (Comex) down -0.85 at 317.90 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.67% UK 1.69% Germany 1.21% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.69bps at 94.6bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.65bps at 98.79bp Markit iTraxx Xover -10.49bps at 397.35bp Markit CDX IG -1.28bps at 75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 01/05/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �1.5B

Notes: UK Net Lending to Individuals released by the Bank of England is a monthly measure of growth rates, amounts outstanding and changes in total lending to individuals, divided into lending secured on dwellings and consumer credit. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. A high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.

#END

DE Unemployment Rate s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 6.9% / Consensus: 6.9%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office shows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Normally, a decrease of the figure is bullish for the EUR, while an increase is bearish.

#END

DE Unemployment Change

Location: Germany

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 13K / Consensus: 3K

Notes: The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which encourages economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END