The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-30 04:44:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks set for highest close since 2008: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 0.7% higher at 3am UK time, with almost three shares rising for each that fell. The measure has advanced 4.4% this month, poised for the biggest monthly gain since June. Japanese shares were mixed after Honda shares fell 3.4% when a profit forecast missed analysts' estimates. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Luxembourg to share company bank details: Luc Frieden, finance minister, said Luxembourg was willing to expand the number of accounts covered by new information-sharing agreements with the US and the EU to include global companies. The accords, agreed this month, currently only cover individual taxpayers. (Financial Times) Japan manufacturing PMIs grow faster: The Markit/JMMA Japan PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.1 in April from 50.4 in March -- the fastest rise since March 2012. (Reuters) US expects first debt cut since 2007: "The US Treasury expects to pay down debt in the second quarter of 2013 as the budget deficit that has dominated national politics starts to shrink." (Financial Times) Cyprus announces plans to cut down on graft and reform its political system, ahead of today's vote on the €10bn international bailout. (Financial Times) Greece approved the firing of permanent civil servants in a fast-tracked 'omnibus' bill on Monday, opening the way for eurozone officials meeting in Brussels to release a €2.8bn aid tranche the same day. (Financial Times) France plans to cut its armed forces headcount. (Financial Times) Abu Dhabi-UK clean energy investment talks: Abu Dhabi is in talks with the UK government to invest up to £1bn in alternative energy schemes alongside the state-owned Green Investment Bank. Kodak's UK pension fund gets old film assets: Eastman Kodak is to offload its outdated camera film business and other assets to British pensioners in return for erasing an estimated $2.8bn of claims. The groundbreaking plan has been agreed by UK pension fund trustees, and would help the company begin extricating itself from Chapter 11. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Will Italy lead the eurozone anti-austerity revolt? (Financial Times) - Brokerage accountants: the CFTC is looking closely at you. (Wall Street Journal) - The Nikkei 225, not what it used to be - thanks to Fast Retailing. (Bloomberg) - Not all European countries can be like Germany. (Financial Times) - KKR's €320m loan to a Spanish building materials company illustrates a new kind of private equity financing. (Financial Times) - European royal families feel a (small) pinch of austerity.. except the Dutch and Belgian ones. (Wall Street Journal) - FAA furloughs end. Cuts to meals for seniors, nutrition programmes for mothers/small children go ahead. (Bloomberg) - Abenomics detractors brace for "told you so" moment. (Reuters) - Italy's debt auction yesterday was at the lowest rates since late 2010. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -59.47 (-0.43%) at 13,825 Topix up +6.13 (+0.53%) at 1,167 Hang Seng up +150.61 (+0.67%) at 22,731 US markets S&P 500 up +11.37 (+0.72%) at 1,594 DJIA up +106.20 (+0.72%) at 14,819 Nasdaq up +27.76 (+0.85%) at 3,307 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +6.48 (+0.54%) at 1,203 FTSE100 up +31.60 (+0.49%) at 6,458 CAC 40 up +58.63 (+1.54%) at 3,869 Dax up +58.74 (+0.75%) at 7,874 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.89 (97.71) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.15 at 103.66 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.12 at 94.38 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +3.70 at 1,471 Copper (Comex) up +0.90 at 323.45 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.67% Germany 1.21% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.4bps at 95.29bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.88bps at 100.44bp Markit iTraxx Xover -19.2bps at 407.84bp Markit CDX IG -1.97bps at 76.28bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

Location: Germany

Date: 30/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.9 / Consensus: 5.9

Notes: The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -26 / Consensus: -26

Notes: The GfK Group Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Normally, a high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is bearish.

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US Personal Spending

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: Personal spending, released by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, measures purchases of goods and services by households and by nonprofit institutions that serve households from private business.

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US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.1%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

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US Personal Income (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

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US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

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DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: -0.2%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.0%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.4% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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EMU Business Climate

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.86 / Consensus: -0.89

Notes: Business climate indicator, released by European Comission, is based on monthly surveys and is designed to deliver a clear and timely assessment of the cyclical situation within the euro area. It may be interpreted as a survey result: a high level indicates that, overall, the surveys point to a healthy cyclical situation. Conversely, a low level points to an adverse business climate. A rise (a fall) in the indicator will point to an upswing in activity and an improvement (deterioration) in the business climate. Its movement is clearly linked to the industrial production of the euro area.

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EMU Consumer Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 29/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -23.5 / Consensus: -22.3

Notes: The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-29 05:49:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks inched up amid optimism for further global economic stimulus measures from the Fed and the ECB this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific index excluding Japan gained 0.2% per cent after rising 2 per cent last week, the most since January 4. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. The Fed's FOMC meets on Wednesday and the ECB's interest rate decision is due on Thursday. (Financial Times) The Fed is widely expected to maintain its easing policies on Wednesday, in part because of inflation measures falling below the 2% target. (Wall Street Journal)(Bloomberg) IGC and Lloyds discuss biggest post-crisis European CLO: "Intermediate Capital Group and Lloyds Bank are in talks on the largest collateralised loan obligation in Europe since the financial crisis, adding to hopes that a once important source of funding for business in the region is making a comeback. ICG, the London-based provider of sub-investment-grade financing, has started fundraising for a €400m structured loan vehicle, according to sources with knowledge of the deal. The deal is expected to close over the summer." (Financial Times) UK ministers consider fracking 'sweeteners': "The government is proposing to bribe communities with cheaper energy bills in exchange for dropping opposition to local fracking projects as part of plans to push ahead with shale-gas extraction." (Financial Times) Portugal plans court action against banks over 'toxic' derivatives: The country's government is tackling Banco Santander and JP Morgan after the Treasury said two months of negotiations failed to produce an agreement. The government is attempting to stem losses of up to effort to stem potential losses of up to €3bn on complex hedging products. (Financial Times) ANA, the biggest Boeing 787 operator, plans to resume scheduled flights of the aircraft on June 1, its CEO Shinichiro Ito said. (Bloomberg) Dimon promotes Zames in latest shake-up: The JPMorgan Chase CEO reshuffled his executive team on Sunday in the latest in a series of turbulent management changes, promoting Matt Zames to chief operating officer. This came after Frank Bisignano, co-chief operating officer at JPMorgan, opted to take over as chief executive of First Data Corp, the payments processor. Zames, Mike Cavanagh, co-head of the corporate and investment bank, and Mary Erdoes, head of asset management, are seen as plausible successors to Dimon. (Financial Times) Netherlands, Luxembourg take big corporate tax hauls: The FT has a big investigation of competition among national corporate tax policies, finding that the two small countries attracted more foreign direct investment than the US, Germany and the UK combined -- although little entered the real economies of each country. (Financial Times) Forex platform proposes 'speed limit': EBS, one of the two dominant trading platforms in the foreign exchange market, is suggesting scrapping the principle of "first in, first out" trading, and instead batching incoming orders together and dealing with them in random order. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Bullion wait times suggest physical silver demand, like gold, is rising in Asia on lower prices. (Bloomberg) - Fears that 3% capital requirement will 'kill off' European money funds. (FTfm) - Stevenson and Wolfers on the non-Excel aspects of the Reinhart-Rogoff furore. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -41.95 (-0.30%) at 13,884 (Friday) Topix down -11.59 (-0.99%) at 1,161 (Friday) Hang Seng up +20.44 (+0.09%) at 22,568 US markets S&P 500 up +3.09 (+0.20%) at 1,582 DJIA up +11.75 (+0.08%) at 14,713 Nasdaq down -10.73 (-0.33%) at 3,279 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.23 (-0.35%) at 1,196 FTSE100 down -16.17 (-0.25%) at 6,426 CAC 40 down -30.42 (-0.79%) at 3,810 Dax down -18.10 (-0.23%) at 7,815 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 97.51 (98.06) £/$ 1.55 (1.55) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.48 at 102.68 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.39 at 92.61 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +15.70 at 1,469 Copper (Comex) down -0.85 at 317.60 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.67% UK 1.69% Germany 1.21% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.26bps at 96.69bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.19bps at 105.32bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.07bps at 427.04bp Markit CDX IG -0.75bps at 78.25bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Gross Domestic Product Annualized

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 3.0%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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