US Gross Domestic Product Annualized

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 3.0%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

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US Gross Domestic Product Price Index

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 26/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.6% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: Personal Consumption Expenditures, released by US Department of Commerce, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures consist of the actual and imputed expenditures of households; the measure includes data pertaining to durables, non-durables and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted toward individuals and consumed by individuals.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-26 05:47:01 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks were mostly higher, the yen was poised for its first weekly gain in four weeks and the NZ dollar was higher on trade surplus figures. Investors are looking to the Bank of Japan's forecasts of inflation and GDP today, from its first meeting since announcing a big stimulus programme, and US Q1 GDP data is also due later today. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% higher and the Nikkei rose 0.2%. (Bloomberg) Samsung Electronics' Q1 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, but its shares slipped as the world's biggest technology group by sales reiterated its cautious outlook for the global smartphone market. Despite heavy spending on marketing, it gave a restrained forecast for its performance in smartphones. It said it expects sales to stay flat in the second quarter but to pick up in the second half of the year, while alluding to a growing competitive threat from low-cost Chinese manufacturers. (Financial Times) Japanese consumer prices fell the most in two years in March. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.5% from a year earlier, compared to economists' consensus expectations of 0.4%. (Bloomberg) Merkel's interest rate comments highlight European divide: Germany in isolation probably needed higher interest rates, Angela Merkel said, in an unusual intervention just a week before many expect the ECB to cut its main interest rate. German officials normally avoid talking about interest-rate decisions to avoid the appearance of interfering with the ECB's independence. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Spain expected to turn away from austerity: Mariano Rajoy's government is expected to lay out an agenda that tilts away from austerity, with less-stringent deficit targets and more emphasis on spurring growth." (Wall Street Journal) ADM to buy GrainCorp for A$3bn: GrainCorp, the largest crop handler in eastern Australia, has agreed to a sweetened A$3bn (U$3.1bn) takeover offer from US-based Archer Daniels Midland after a six-month courtship. News of the deal sent GrainCorp shares to a record high in Sydney on Friday. The latest offer was the third since ADM's initial approach in October last year. (Financial Times) CBOE outage lasts several hours: "A software glitch knocked out trading on the largest US options exchange for more than three hours Thursday, raising fresh questions about the reliability of critical elements of the financial market." (Wall Street Journal) SFO launches criminal probe into ENRC: The announcement came days after founding shareholders said they were weighing up plans to take the Kazakh-based miner private. "People familiar with the investigation told the Financial Times that the agency had first begun an official probe into ENRC before its potential restructuring was announced last week." Two internal investigations were already under way after whistleblower allegations about assets in Kazakhstan and Africa. (Financial Times) Some US banks support Europeans against capital rules: European banks have won support from some US rivals, including JP Morgan, in fighting the Fed's proposal to force US subsidiaries of large foreign banks to hold more capital. However Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have told US officials that they support the moves, despite concerns about a breakdown in regulatory harmony. (Financial Times) US regulators want swift replacement of Libor: Regulators including the Fed and the Treasury said on Thursday that alternative rates "anchored in observable transactions" should be identified "promptly" by international officials and market participants. (Financial Times) Research suggests Google searches predict markets: People do more searches on terms such as "stocks", "portfolio" and "economics" when they are worried about the state of the markets. (Financial Times)(Paper) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Philip Stephens: This is a chance to rethink austerity orthodoxy. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf: The pros and cons of a floating currency. (Financial Times) - Japan's investment banks are among the first and biggest Abenomics beneficiaries. (Bloomberg) - What Apple could learn from Warren Buffett. (Bloomberg) - Video: Draghi not such a rock star after all. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +27.40 (+0.20%) at 13,953 Topix down -4.89 (-0.42%) at 1,168 Hang Seng up +197.80 (+0.88%) at 22,599 US markets S&P 500 up +0.01 (0.00%) at 1,579 DJIA up +24.50 (+0.17%) at 14,701 Nasdaq unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 3,290 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.82 (+0.74%) at 1,201 FTSE100 up +10.83 (+0.17%) at 6,443 CAC 40 down -2.47 (-0.06%) at 3,840 Dax up +73.83 (+0.95%) at 7,833 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.12 (99.25) £/$ 1.55 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.46 at 102.95 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.46 at 93.18 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +9.60 at 1,471 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 323.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.71% UK 1.74% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.61bps at 96.43bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.77bps at 105.51bp Markit iTraxx Xover -3.88bps at 428.11bp Markit CDX IG -1.02bps at 79bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 352K / Consensus: 351K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.3% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-25 05:48:45 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares were broadly higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index adding 0.3%. The Nikkei rose 0.4% and the Hang Seng was 1% higher. (Bloomberg) Italy's new prime minister lost no time in calling for an easing of austerity policies. Enrico Letta, a veteran centre-left politician, outlined a programme of institutional reforms and measures to create employment, saying that "Europe's policy of austerity is no longer sufficient". (Financial Times) Buy-to-let landlords could be the biggest FLS beneficiaries, after the BoE gave the go-ahead yesterday for banks tapping its new funding mechanism for small- and medium-sized businesses to be allowed to lend the money on to property investors. Buy-to-let borrowing costs have already fallen to 4.28% from 5.09% in August. (Financial Times) Merkel faces austerity politics squeeze: "In the campaign for September's parliamentary poll, Ms Merkel risks being squeezed between the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), calling for more emphasis to be put on growth, and a new anti-euro party campaigning for the return of the Deutschemark." (Financial Times) Verizon considers $100bn bid for Verizon Wireless control: "Verizon Communications has hired advisers to prepare a possible $100 billion cash and stock bid to take full control of Verizon Wireless from joint venture partner Vodafone Group Plc, two people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday." (Reuters) Evonik will be biggest German public listing since 2007: Europe's biggest public listing of the year will take place on Thursday when a German chemicals company makes its trading debut in Frankfurt, valuing it at nearly €15bn. (Financial Times) South Korean Q1 GDP beats: South Korea's economy grew at 0.9% in Q1, the fastest quarterly pace for two years and a rate that beat economists' expectations of 0.7%. The growth was boosted by recovering exports and facilities investment. (Financial Times) Pressure is mounting on the ECB to cut interest rates next week, after Germany's poor Ifo business confidence survey yesterday. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) "Samsung Electronics said demand for its flagship Galaxy S4 device is stronger than expected after two top US wireless carriers pushed back their release dates, citing shipment delays. "Pre-order demand is much stronger than expected, so it's difficult to rapidly boost supply in the short term," Lee Don Joo, president of the strategic marketing office at Samsung's mobile business, said today during a company event in Seoul."" (Bloomberg) European businesses tackle US banks over OTC derivatives spat: The European Association of Corporate Treasurers, which convinced the EU to exempt OTC derivatives sold to corporates from an onerous Basel III capital charge, has accused JP Morgan and other US banks of not putting their own customers' interests first. The European treasurers' group wrote to JPM raising questions about its "concern for its corporate customers globally" because of its lobbying against the concession, but the bank responded that it was seeking a worldwide reduction in the charges. (Financial Times) US bill for 15% 'megabank' capital requirements unveiled: Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat from Ohio, and David Vitter, a conservative Republican from Louisiana, proposed new legislation that would require banks with more than $500bn in assets to meet a new capital requirement of 15%, while midsized and regional lenders would need to hold 8%. The bill is being closely watched on Wall Street, even though it is unclear whether or how far it will advance in Congress. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Janet Yellen's admirers and foes. (New York Times) - Opec seems okay with sub-$100 oil for now. (Financial Times) - How long can peripheral bonds defy gravity? (Wall Street Journal) - Young, unskilled and unemployed in Spain. (Financial Times) - The problem of extroverts in finance. (Financial Times) - Greece is reviving pursuit of WWII reparations from Germany. (Wall Street Journal) - Olam is surviving Muddy Waters' criticism. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MOSTLY UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +60.14 (+0.43%) at 13,904 Topix up +5.01 (+0.43%) at 1,169 Hang Seng up +246.54 (+1.11%) at 22,430 US markets S&P 500 up +0.01 (0.00%) at 1,579 DJIA down -43.16 (-0.29%) at 14,676 Nasdaq up +0.32 (+0.01%) at 3,270 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.79 (+0.74%) at 1,192 FTSE100 up +25.64 (+0.40%) at 6,432 CAC 40 up +59.89 (+1.58%) at 3,843 Dax up +100.82 (+1.32%) at 7,759 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.39 (99.47) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.42 at 102.15 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.41 at 91.84 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +17.70 at 1,441 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 315.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.71% UK 1.71% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.24bps at 95.82bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.19bps at 106.28bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.76bps at 431.99bp Markit CDX IG -0.74bps at 80.02bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Location: United States

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

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US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 5.7% / Consensus: -2.8%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

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UK BBA Mortgage Approvals

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 30.5K / Consensus: 31.2K

Notes: The Mortgage Approvals published by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) measure the number of home loans issued by the BBA during the previous quarter. It is considered as a leading indicator of the UK Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall UK economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish)

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DE IFO - Business Climate

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 106.7 / Consensus: 106.2

Notes: This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

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DE IFO - Current Assessment

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 109.9 / Consensus: 109.5

Notes: The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

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DE IFO - Expectations

Location: Germany

Date: 24/04/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 103.6 / Consensus: 103.0

Notes: The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

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