The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-24 05:42:24 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose as the yen weakened against the dollar, and after positive US earnings news. The Nikkei was up 1.7%, the Hang Seng 1.3% and the Kospi rose 1%. The yen fell to as low as 99.77 against the dollar, before rebounding to 99.30. (Bloomberg)(Reuters) Lloyds branch sale to Co-op collapses: The planned sale of more than 600 branches to the Co-operative Group has collapsed after the Co-op concluded yesterday it could not proceed with the deal. It means Lloyds will have to revive a "plan B" to float the branch network as a freestanding business, and bankers are sceptical that process could be initiated, let alone completed, by the end of the year -- which is its deadline imposed by Brussels. The Co-op board's decision yesterday to pull the plug on the deal are not yet clear. (Financial Times) Gold rose today after yesterday recording its biggest fall in a week, with the gains attributed to rising physical purchases. Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.9% to $1,426.08 an ounce after falling 0.9% yesterday. (Bloomberg) Italian prime minister set to be announced: After a long day of talks yesterday, President Giorgio Napolitano was expected to nominate a prime minister today. Giuliano Amato, a former socialist prime minister, was widely tipped although the mayor of Florence, Matteo Renzi and centre-left deputy leader Enrico Letta have also emerged as possible candidates. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Portugal announces ambitious stimulus measures: "Economy Minister Álvaro Santos Pereira said the government will aim to cut the corporate tax rate, provide incentives for foreign companies to move to Portugal, tackle a highly bureaucratic system that hurts investments and offer financing for small- and medium-size enterprises at attractive terms." There were no figures attached to the plan, some of which may require approval from international creditors. (Wall Street Journal) ENRC chairman resigns: "The chairman brought in to clean up the controversial FTSE 100 miner Eurasian Natural Resources Corp, resigned on Tuesday, in the latest stark illustration of the difficulty of grafting City governance standards on to mining groups with powerful Asian shareholders." (Financial Times) British food stamp recipient numbers double: New data released today by the Trussell Trust, the biggest food bank operator, says annual referrals jumped to 350,000, from 130,000 a year earlier. (Financial Times) US sues Novartis, alleging kickbacks: "The U.S. government filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Novartis AG on Tuesday, accusing a unit of the Swiss drug maker of causing the Medicare and Medicaid programs to pay tens of millions of dollars in reimbursements based on fraudulent, kickback-tainted claims." (Reuters) Accor chief ousted: Denis Hennequin, chairman and chief executive of Europe's largest hotel group by rooms, was ousted. The board said Hennequin's strategy "was the right one" but made clear the results were not coming through fast enough. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What Merkel did in eurozone's most desperate moments. (Wall Street Journal) - Martin Wolf agrees with Reinhart-Rogoff critics; not too late to reconsider austerity blunders. (Financial Times) - Einhorn likes Apple's big payout. (NYT Dealbook) - Shale gas develop 'much slower' outside of the US, says Shell. (Financial Times) - The Libor vaccuum. (Financial Times) - Blackberry diehards get their keyboard back. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +225.21 (+1.66%) at 13,755 Topix up +11.11 (+0.97%) at 1,155 Hang Seng up +282.34 (+1.29%) at 22,089 US markets S&P 500 up +16.28 (+1.04%) at 1,579 DJIA up +152.29 (+1.05%) at 14,719 Nasdaq up +35.78 (+1.11%) at 3,269 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +28.03 (+2.43%) at 1,183 FTSE100 up +125.50 (+2.00%) at 6,406 CAC 40 up +130.92 (+3.58%) at 3,783 Dax up +180.10 (+2.41%) at 7,658 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.40 (99.46) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.27 at 100.58 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.37 at 89.55 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +11.80 at 1,420 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 309.40 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.71% Germany 1.26% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -2.45bps at 95.58bp Markit iTraxx Europe -3.58bps at 107.47bp Markit iTraxx Xover -16.35bps at 433.75bp Markit CDX IG -2.99bps at 80.76bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United States

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 13:58 - 14:58

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 54.6

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the United States. Readings above 50 imply the economy is expanding, making investors understood it as a bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 points for an economic contraction, and weighs negatively on the currency.

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UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �4.356B / Consensus: �14.100B

Notes: The Net Borrowing released by the National Statistics captures an amount of new debt held by the U.K. governments (the financial deficit in the UK national accounts). Generally speaking, if the Net Borrowing is negative, it means the UK Accounts are surplus, and that should be positive for the GBP. While a deficit is generally unfavorable for the economy, a growth in the Net Borrowing is considered as negative, or bearish for the GBP.

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DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 50.9 / Consensus: 51.0

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

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DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 23/04/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.0 / Consensus: 48.9

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-23 05:48:09 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell, erasing earlier gains, on fears about China's manufacturing sector growth after flash PMIs were published. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.3% lower and the yen rose slightly. The Nikkei was 0.2% lower and the Hang Seng fell 1.2%. (Bloomberg) China's flash PMIs fell in April: China's manufacturing sector expansion appears to be slowing this month, as preliminary HSBC/Markit PMI was 50.5 for April, compared to 51.6 in March and below the 51.5 consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This month's survey was being watched particularly closely for signs of Q2 economic momentum, after the Q1 GDP growth reported last week missed expectations. (Bloomberg) S&P says there's a more than 1-in-3 chance it will downgrade Japan because of risks and uncertainties about how 'Abenomics' policies will work. The country's long-term debt is rated AA- by S&P. (Reuters)(Statement) Europe may have hit the political limits of how far it can go with austerity policies because of the growing opposition in the eurozone's recession-hit periphery, European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said on Monday. While such policies were "fundamentally right", they may have reached a limit of social and political acceptance. (Financial Times)(Reuters) EU warns on 'protectionist' US bank capital plans: Plans to force foreign banks operating in the US to hold more capital are a threat to harmonious global regulation and risk "a protectionist reaction", the EU commissioner in charge of financial services, Michael Barnier, warned in a letter to Ben Bernanke. The Fed responded by defending the "targeted adjustments" for foreign banks, saying they stemmed from those banks having had "significantly greater reliance on potentially unstable, short-term wholesale funding". (Financial Times) Libor 'unsustainble', says CFTC chair: "Gary Gensler, head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, told the Financial Times that Libor replacements were needed "to restore market integrity and promote financial stability"." (Financial Times) Walmart directors working on the retailer's investigation into bribery allegations in Mexico had their cash pay doubled to at least $120,000 last year because of the extra work. Four members of the retailer's audit committee received an extra $60,000 last year, on top of $60,000 in retainers and equity awards worth $175,000. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - How much will a weak yen really help today's Japanese economy? (Financial Times) - Asian banks offer perks to private banks whose clients buy their bonds. (Bloomberg) - Just 22 companies account for half of all cash held by non-financial S&P 500 firms. (Wall Street Journal) - Apple under pressure on products. (Financial Times) - Italian bonds strengthened on president news. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -26.90 (-0.20%) at 13,541 Topix up +0.32 (+0.03%) at 1,146 Hang Seng down -270.65 (-1.23%) at 21,774 US markets S&P 500 up +7.25 (+0.47%) at 1,563 DJIA up +19.66 (+0.14%) at 14,567 Nasdaq up +27.49 (+0.86%) at 3,234 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.81 (+0.16%) at 1,155 FTSE100 down -5.97 (-0.09%) at 6,281 CAC 40 up +0.17 (0.00%) at 3,652 Dax up +18.15 (+0.24%) at 7,478 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.31) $/¥ 98.57 (99.21) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.63 at 99.76 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.51 at 88.68 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +24.30 at 1,424 Copper (Comex) down -0.50 at 312.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.69% UK 1.67% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.96bps at 98.03bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.44bps at 111.05bp Markit iTraxx Xover -7.94bps at 450.1bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 83.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Location: United States

Date: 22/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.44

Notes: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-22 05:47:46 by Kate Mackenzie Asian markets rose, led by strong performance by Japanese exporters' shares as the yen weakened against the dollar. The Nikkei was 2.1% higher and the Hang Seng was little changed while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.4% after the earthquake in Sichuan province which killed at least 188 people. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.6%. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) The US economy will officially become 3% bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties, R&D spending, and other intangible assets. A BEA official said it would be the biggest change since computer software was included in GDP in 1999. The impact . (Financial Times) Italian president Giorgio Napolitano was re-elected on Saturday and is expected to propose a a bipartisan cabinet supported by the two main, centre-left and centre-right forces, as had been anticipated after the national elections two months ago which resulted in a deadlock. Meanwhile Giorgio Squinzi, head of the country's main business lobby Confindustria, urged politicians to form a coalition government or risk condemning the country to a prolonged recession. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Banks have put a damper on George Osborne's hopes that an expansion of the Funding for Lending Scheme will spark a rush of credit to small and medium-sized companies as the chancellor finalises plans to revamp the programme. An extension of the scheme will be announced within the next two weeks, which banks welcomed but warned would be insufficient, on its own, to clear the credit bottleneck. (Financial Times) BaFin puts Reits in turmoil: The German financial regulator has proposed that German Reits should be regulated as investment funds under the EU's Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive, due to come into effect in July. This would bar many equity funds from investing in Reits and deter investments from countries such as China. (Financial Times) China's slower Q1 growth is a 'normal' effect of structural reforms, PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan said. "China's undergoing economic restructuring, which sometimes is not in lockstep with growth," he told reporters on Saturday after the G20 meeting. "We need to sacrifice short-term growth for the purposes of reforms and structural adjustments." (Bloomberg) Three more executives leave ENRC: Three senior executives have resigned and a fourth has taken leave of absence from the Kazakh mining group that controlling shareholders are considering removing from the FTSE 100 via a buyout. The departures come ahead of a board meeting on Tuesday where sharp divisions are expected to emerge between members associated with controlling shareholders and directors independent of them. (Financial Times) G4S to quit key Israel contracts amid protests: "G4S, the world's biggest security company by revenues, has confirmed it is planning to quit key contracts in Israel amid protests against its involvement in settlements within occupied Palestinian territories." (Financial Times) Audit regulator calls for end to anonymity: James Doty, head of the US audit regulator PCAOB, has made a fresh call for senior auditors to be stripped of their anonymity as details continued to emerge from the KPMG insider trading scandal. "Investors really want this. They don't see why they shouldn't have it," he told the FT. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gavyn Davies: Little sign that policy-makers are listening to the IMF's warnings. (Financial Times) - The composition of this year's stock market rally is unusually defensive. (Wall Street Journal) - UK manufacturers become the luddites of Europe, with many too small to invest in robotics. (Financial Times) - Bernanke won't be attending Jackson Hole this year because of a scheduling conflict. (Reuters) - New research backs climate hockey stick graph. (Financial Times) - India's water scarcity presents massive costs for governments and corporations. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +275.38 (+2.07%) at 13,592 Topix up +21.28 (+1.89%) at 1,148 Hang Seng up +8.10 (+0.04%) at 22,022 US markets S&P 500 up +13.64 (+0.88%) at 1,555 DJIA up +10.37 (+0.07%) at 14,548 Nasdaq up +39.70 (+1.25%) at 3,206 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +5.81 (+0.51%) at 1,153 FTSE100 up +42.92 (+0.69%) at 6,287 CAC 40 up +52.60 (+1.46%) at 3,652 Dax down -13.77 (-0.18%) at 7,460 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.80 (99.77) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.37 at 100.02 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.41 at 88.42 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +26.30 at 1,422 Copper (Comex) down -1.55 at 313.60 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.72% UK 1.66% Germany 1.25% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.99bps at 98.99bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.57bps at 113.49bp Markit iTraxx Xover -3.61bps at 458.04bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 83.75bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE German Buba President Weidmann speech

Location: Germany

Date: 22/04/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Dr Jens Weidmann is the president of the Deutsche Bundesbank. He is member of the Governing Council of the ECB and has some responsabilities: Communication, Legal, Economics Research Centre...

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-19 05:46:53 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose, paring earlier losses and leading some analysts to say this week's sell-off was overdone. The MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.2% after earlier falling 0.3%. The yen weakened against the dollar by 0.4% to 98.6 after finance minister Taro Aso told reporters that Japan's policies were unopposed at the G20 meeting. (Bloomberg) UK and IMF set for austerity dust-up: George Osborne is "prepared to 'aggressively' defend his policies" when an IMF team arrives in London next month to make an annual assessment of the British economy, according to aides. He fears that an anti-austerity faction is gaining ground within the Fund, which could formally urge for a relaxing of Osborne's fiscal plans, providing a boost to the Labour party. (Financial Times) "Blackstone pulled out of bidding for Dell amid concerns about the computer maker's finances and the worsening outlook for global PC sales, said people with knowledge of the situation." (Bloomberg) Italy's centre left splinters after failure to agree on president: "Questions were immediately raised over Pier Luigi Bersani's continued leadership of the Democratic party after many of his parliamentarians rebelled and voted against his preferred presidential candidate, Franco Marini, an 80-year-old former Catholic trade unionist widely seen as emblematic of a discredited establishment." The election of a new president was seen as a crucial step towards either forming a new government or dissolving parliament for fresh elections. (Financial Times) Ireland picks through debtors' lifestyles: "Irish homeowners applying for debt writedowns will have to give up satellite television, foreign holidays and private school educations for their children under a strict new insolvency law introduced to tackle the country's debt crisis." (Financial Times) Energy companies pose stability risk: British economist Lord Stern says the size of energy companies means there is a risk of fossil fuel assets being devalued by climate policy. "These carbon-based companies form a tremendous part of international financial assets and if those were at risk, as they surely would be if we took the [climate change] issue as seriously as we should, then that is potentially a major source of instability." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - UK dairy group plugs pensions hole with actual cheese. (Financial Times) - Analogue businesses in many sectors are unprepared for the digital revolution. (Financial Times) - Clues to how Rich Ricci's fate was sealed. (Financial Times) - Gillian Tett: Wake up to the twitter effect on markets. (Financial Times) - Spain's tide of foreclosure squatters. (Bloomberg) - Japan will make good on Abenomics promise, says finance minister. (Financial Times) - Private equity groups regain enthusiasm for listings. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +46.15 (+0.35%) at 13,266 Topix up +0.24 (+0.02%) at 1,123 Hang Seng up +223.58 (+1.04%) at 21,736 US markets S&P 500 down -10.40 (-0.67%) at 1,542 DJIA down -81.45 (-0.56%) at 14,537 Nasdaq down -38.31 (-1.20%) at 3,166 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.38 (-0.03%) at 1,147 FTSE100 down -0.54 (-0.01%) at 6,244 CAC 40 up +0.13 (0.00%) at 3,599 Dax down -29.30 (-0.39%) at 7,474 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 98.53 (98.13) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.37 at 99.50 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.27 at 88.00 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,392 Copper (Comex) down -3.75 at 316.70 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.69% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.4bps at 100.98bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.88bps at 114.06bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.96bps at 461.65bp Markit CDX IG +0.87bps at 84.98bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 19/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: 0.7%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 18/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 346K / Consensus: 347K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 3.3% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.6% / Consensus: -0.5%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-18 05:49:55 by Kate Mackenzie Most Asian stocks fell, led by mining companies amid fears of a weaker outlook for global growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was 0.5% lower, the Nikkei and the Kospi fell 0.3% and the ASX was down 0.7%. The Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite swung between gains and losses. Gold fell as much as 2.8% on outflows from ETFs. (Bloomberg) Japan has posted its narrowest trade deficit for nine months, helped by a big rise in the value of shipments to the US, which has toppled China as Japan's number one export destination. Provisional figures from Japan's finance ministry today showed that overall exports rose 1.1 per cent in March from a year earlier to Y6.3tn ($64bn), while imports – boosted by fuel to replace idled nuclear capacity – were up 5.5 per cent to Y6.6tn. (Financial Times) Apple shares dropped below $400 for the first time since December 2011 after one of its audio-chip suppliers, Cirrus Logic, reported an inventory glut that suggests iPhone sales may fall short of analysts' expectations. The company's shares are down 43% from their record high in September. On Tuesday the company is expected to report its first year-on-year decline in quarterly earnings for almost a decade, and sentiment was also weighed down by news that Apple was ordered by Chinese authorities to remove some content it hosted. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Italy's centrist parties said to reach deal on President: "Senior parliamentarians in both parties told the Financial Times that an agreement had been made on the candidacy of Franco Marini, an 80-year-old former Speaker of the senate." President Giorgio Napolitano's term ends in mid-May, and a new head of state will have to try to break the deadlock from the inconclusive February elections. (Financial Times) G20 talks in Washington begin today and central bank easing is expected to be in focus. The merits and risks of low interest rates and unconventional monetary policy were also debated at the IMF spring meetings yesterday. Currency valuations and debt reductions goals are also likely to be topics of debate. (Reuters) Global policymakers will discuss the impact of unprecedented monetary policy easing at meetings in Washington this week along with the softly-softly approach central banks will need to eventually wean the world off super-cheap funds. New BHP chief makes mark: Andrew Mackenzie, the new CEO of BHP Billiton, has moved to stamp his authority on the company with an overhaul of its senior management team that will see the head of petroleum, chief executive of the aluminium and nickel division, and head of ferrous and coal division all depart their roles. A new structure will mean five divisional chiefs all report directly to the CEO. (Financial Times) Euro falls on Bundesbank comments: The German central bank's president Jens Weidmann "signaled that the ECB could reduce interest rates if incoming data suggest it is warranted. But he warned such a move wouldn't turn around the euro bloc's economic fortunes." Weidmann warned Europe's debt crisis could take another decade to overcome. (Wall Street Journal) PBoC says China will press on with widening the Rmb trading band, despite slower than expected growth in Q1. "I think in the near future we are going to increase the floating band even further," PBoC vice governor Yi Gang said in Washington. (Wall Street Journal) Net selling of overseas assets by Japanese institutional investors continued for a fifth week, but the rate of sales was much slower than in the first week of April. The sales have confounded expectations that Japanese investors would rush to buy foreign assets in the wake of the BoJ's new easing measures; but some analysts say it may still be too soon to expect massive outflows. (Wall Street Journal) "Chinese banks must rate their clients' risk of criminal conduct on a scale of 1-5 as part of the central bank's moves to curb money laundering and fraudulent transactions estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars a year." (Reuters) BP accepted responsibility for a critical Deepwater Horizon negative pressure test, as the first phase of the liability trial for damages and penalties over the 2010 disaster ended. However the company said it had strong safety systems and had not put the crew under pressure to finish the Macondo well more too quickly. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Reinhart and Rogoff: Robert Pollin and Michael Ash on 'Growth in a Time of Debt'. (Financial Times) - The IMF must quit the Troika to survive. (Financial Times) - Central bankers debate risks of unconventional policies ahead of IMF's spring meeting. (Financial Times) - Jesse Eisenger looks at fears of a Fed-inspired bubble. (NYT/Propublica) - Japanese swaps are already anticipating Kuroda's endgame. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -36.67 (-0.27%) at 13,346 Topix down -2.50 (-0.22%) at 1,134 Hang Seng down -10.08 (-0.05%) at 21,560 US markets S&P 500 down -22.56 (-1.43%) at 1,552 DJIA down -138.19 (-0.94%) at 14,619 Nasdaq down -59.96 (-1.84%) at 3,205 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -18.10 (-1.55%) at 1,148 FTSE100 down -60.37 (-0.96%) at 6,244 CAC 40 down -86.56 (-2.35%) at 3,599 Dax down -179.55 (-2.34%) at 7,503 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.30) $/¥ 98.25 (98.09) £/$ 1.53 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.02 at 97.67 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.11 at 86.79 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -18.60 at 1,364 Copper (Comex) down -1.80 at 317.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.69% UK 1.67% Germany 1.23% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.18bps at 100.58bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.84bps at 113.18bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.72bps at 453.69bp Markit CDX IG +1.99bps at 84.11bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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