The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-16 05:47:27 by Kate Mackenzie Most Asian stock markets fell and risk assets were generally lower, with poor sentiment attributed to unexpected falls in US housing starts and China's GDP growth, as well as the Boston marathon bombings. The Nikkei rose slightly and the yen weakened 0.3% but the MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.9% lower. Earlier, the S&P500 closed with its biggest lossin five months. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) "Two powerful bombs exploded near the finish line of the Boston Marathon on Monday afternoon, killing three people, including an 8-year-old child, and injuring more than 100..." (New York Times) Spot gold fell as much as 1.9% to $1,325/oz and gold futures for February 2014 deliver fell as much as 10% in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Dish bids $25.5bn for Sprint in challenge to Softbank: Charlie Ergen, chairman of Dish Network, launched a $25.5bn offer for Sprint Nextel that trumped an agreed deal for the US wireless carrier by Japan's SoftBank. The unsolicited cash and stock bid, which would marry the second-ranked US satellite television operator with the third-largest US mobile phone provider. Softbank shares fell the most in six months in Tokyo amid fears the Japanese company would raise its own bid. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) Charterhouse may pull sales amid low interest: UK buyout house Charterhouse may pull two of Europe's largest private equity disposals because of a lack of competitive bidding interest, highlighting the difficult dealmaking environment for buyouts in the region. Only one planned bid emerged for Ista, the German metering company, and it was expected the offer may fall short of its asking price of at least €3bn. This mirrors a similar shortage of bidders in Elior, a French caterer that Charterhouse took private in 2006, for which there only appears to be one interested party, according to people with knowledge of the situation. (Financial Times) ENRC hit by whistleblower claim: "ENRC has suspended one of its managers in Africa due to whistleblower allegations of impropriety in the latest blow to the FTSE 100 miner left reeling by investor concerns over corporate governance." The manager in Mozambique has been suspended pending the outcome of an internal investigation, the company said. (Financial Times) Greece on track to receive aid tranche: "Greece has identified some 15,000 public-sector workers to be let go over two years as part of a tentative agreement sealed Monday with its international lenders to unlock the next payments from its €173 billion ($226 billion) bailout." Finance minister Yannis Stournaras said Greece may ask for more debt relief. (Wall Street Journal)(Reuters) Business confidence among finance chiefs of the UK's biggest companies has risen sharply as worries about economic and financial uncertainty have dropped to their lowest level for two-and-a-half-years, a quarterly survey by Deloitte shows. (Financial Times) JPMorgan to be faulted over Madoff: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is expected to issue a cease-and-desist order against JPMorgan for failing to conduct adequate due diligence and report suspicious activity relating to Bernie Madoff's activities, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Reuters) Creditors reject Energy Future proposal: Energy Future Holdings, the Texas power producer that in 2007 was the subject of the largest-ever leveraged buyout, has reached out to creditors to propose a pre-packaged bankruptcy for one of its principal units and a consensual restructuring of its $32bn of debt. But lenders who control the senior debt turned down the complicated proposal and broke off talks. (Financial Times) Trafigura staff net $1.6bn in share deals: The commodities trading house handed about $1.6bn to its senior employees in the past three years by buying back their shares, according to a bond prospectus. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gideon Rachman: Europeans are losing faith in national and EU institutions. (Financial Times) - Charted: Paulson's $1bn losing gold bet. (Bloomberg) - Get used to slower China growth. (Bloomberg) - Apartments, jewellery and some distinctly modest cars described as French ministers reveal their wealth. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +20.79 (+0.16%) at 13,296 Topix down -14.58 (-1.27%) at 1,134 Hang Seng down -124.52 (-0.57%) at 21,648 US markets S&P 500 down -36.49 (-2.30%) at 1,552 DJIA down -265.86 (-1.79%) at 14,599 Nasdaq down -78.46 (-2.38%) at 3,216 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -7.50 (-0.63%) at 1,175 FTSE100 down -40.79 (-0.64%) at 6,344 CAC 40 down -18.82 (-0.50%) at 3,710 Dax down -32.14 (-0.41%) at 7,713 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.30) $/¥ 96.78 (98.40) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.10 at 99.53 Light Crude (Nymex) down -3.27 at 87.39 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -13.90 at 1,347 Copper (Comex) down -4.70 at 329.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.73% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.92bps at 101.74bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.61bps at 111.57bp Markit iTraxx Xover +5.28bps at 447.96bp Markit CDX IG +3.31bps at 85.34bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/04/2013

Time: 14:00 - 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $25.7B / Consensus: $41.3B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-15 05:48:51 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stock markets and most commodities fell after Chinese GDP and other economic data came in below economists' estimates. The Nikkei and Hang Seng both fell 1.5% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 1% lower. (Bloomberg) China's Q1 GDP growth was 7.7%, missing estimates. The country reported 7.7% year-on-year growth while median economist forecasts were for 8% according to a Reuters poll. Industrial production grew 9.5%, compared to 10% for the same period in 2012 and retail sales rose 12.4% in the quarter, 1.9 percentage points lower than last year. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Gold, silver prices tumble: Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 3.9% to $1,425.75 an ounce, the lowest level since April 2011, while silver fell 5% to its lowest level since November 2010. (Bloomberg) Global economy in a rut: "The global economy is stuck in a rut, unable to sustain a decent recovery and susceptible to a sudden stall, according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index of recovery." (Financial Times) Troika officials arrive in Lisbon today to assess a new round of austerity measures as the government struggles to keep the country's €78bn rescue programme on track and avoid a second bailout. The mission will determine payment of the next €2bn installment of Portugal's bailout loans and final approval of an agreement to give Lisbon seven more years to pay them back. (Financial Times) "BT will significantly undercut the pricing of Sky subscriptions for pubs as the telecoms group attempts to snatch some of the £300m market for its new sports channel launching this summer... Sky has already offered some large pub groups heavy discounts of up to 30%, people with knowledge of recent negotiations told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) Hopes of full payout for Lehman Europe creditors rise: Creditors of the European arm of the bank may receive payment with interest. "In a report sent out to creditors on Friday, administrators PwC said there was a "reasonable chance" of repayment in full of the £15bn in unsecured claims, following a string of legal victories against other defunct Lehman entities in recent months." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Wolfgang Münchau: One currency, many values. (Financial Times) - BoJ triggers emerging market fund inflows. (Wall Street Journal) - Ed Luce: Why the US envies Germany. (Financial Times) - Oil tanker woes. (Wall Street Journal) - Dividend recaps are back in Europe: fastest pace since the credit boom. (Financial Times) - Lucy Kellaway: Worst-performing employees are often the most engaged. (Financial Times) - World Bank cuts China 2013 forecast to 8.3% from 8.4%. Really. (Reuters) - Top hedge fund managers saw a big fall in returns last year. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -199.08 (-1.48%) at 13,286 Topix down -15.86 (-1.38%) at 1,133 Hang Seng down -336.00 (-1.52%) at 21,753 US markets S&P 500 down -4.52 (-0.28%) at 1,589 DJIA down -0.08 (0.00%) at 14,865 Nasdaq down -5.21 (-0.16%) at 3,295 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -10.77 (-0.90%) at 1,182 FTSE100 down -31.75 (-0.49%) at 6,384 CAC 40 unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 3,729 Dax down -126.86 (-1.61%) at 7,745 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.66 (97.70) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -2.15 at 100.96 Light Crude (Nymex) down -2.52 at 88.77 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -61.60 at 1,439 Copper (Comex) down -3.65 at 331.25 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.73% UK 1.73% Germany 1.26% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.69bps at 100.82bp Markit iTraxx Europe +2.99bps at 110.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +8.42bps at 442.68bp Markit CDX IG +0.47bps at 82.03bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/04/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 17:30 - 18:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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US Producer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: -0.2%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1% / Consensus: 0%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex Autos released by the US Census Bureau is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. This report is the "advance report, which can be revised fairly significantly after the final numbers are calculated. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the USD.

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US Retail Sales (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.3% / Consensus: -2.5%

Notes: The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-12 05:44:58 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell with the Nikkei down 0.9% as the yen strengthened against the dollar by 0.2% to 99.52. The Hang Seng rose 0.3% and China's Shanghai Composite swung between gains and losses before the release of China's economic growth data next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific index was 0.2% lower. (Bloomberg) Eurogroup to consider Portugal's repayment schedule today: Portugal could struggle to avoid a second international rescue even if it, alongside Ireland, is granted more time to repay its existing bailout loans by eurozone finance ministers meeting in Dublin today. (Financial Times) A delay to Portugal's payment schedule of up to seven years is being discussed, but Germany has reservations. A leaked 'troika' paper prepared ahead of the meeting makes clear that Portugal will have a very hard time avoiding a second bailout, since its financing needs in 2014 and 2015 – its first years after bailout funding runs out in July 2014 – will be substantially higher than they were during the pre-crisis period. (FT Brussels Blog) Tougher European bank stress tests to be floated at today's eurogroup meeting: "The push is being led by several key officials in Brussels and Frankfurt, who want to see a new round of much-tougher stress tests before the European Central Bank becomes the euro zone's main banking policeman next year, according to four European officials familiar the talks." Germany, the Netherlands and Finland reportedly back the changes. (Wall Street Journal) Myanmar has opened a long-awaited auction for 30 offshore oil and gas exploration blocks, which is expected to attract fierce bidding competition despite even though it comes amid signs that Myanmar is likely to review, and possibly renegotiate, existing natural resources deals as it prepares to sign up to the Norway-based Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. (Financial Times) "Singapore's GDP shrank an annualised 1.4 % in the three months through March 31 from the previous quarter. The Monetary Authority of Singapore said it won't change the slope and width of the currency trading band that it uses as the main policy tool." (Bloomberg) Man Group is preparing a sweeping reorganisation of its core quant fund business, AHL, in an effort to diversify its revenue base and regain ground lost to competitors. The division is to launch new funds and is poised to embark on a hiring spree, say people at the company. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Chinese official apologises for 'groundless' investment data sourced from internet. (Bloomberg) - The Winklevii, bitcoin moguls. (NYT Dealbook) - JP Morgan analysts say banks such as JPM are un-investable. (NYT Dealbook) - The time Thatcher grabbed my lapels and railed against the single currency. (Financial Times)
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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 385K / Consensus: 365K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-11 05:49:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for a fourth day and the yen neared 100 to the dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1 percent, the Nikkei rose 1.2% and the Kospi was just 0.1% higher after the Bank of Korea kept borrowing costs steady. (Bloomberg) China's forex reserves and credit grow sharply: China is once again facing heavy capital inflows after its forex reserves rose $130bn to $3.44tn in the first quarter, helping to fuel a surge in credit growth amid concerns about the level of debt in the economy. It's the biggest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2011 and marks a sharp reversal from last year when money exited China. Total new financing in the economy grew 58% to Rmb6.2tn ($1tn) compared to the same period in 2012. (Financial Times) Kuroda says BoJ has done all it can for now: The Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda said the stimulus measures announced at his first meeting as governor last week is enough to achieve a 2% inflation goal. "The central bank has taken all "necessary" and "possible" measures, Kuroda told reporters in Tokyo yesterday. While officials will change policy as needed, he doesn't expect adjustments each month, he said. The BOJ chief reiterated a pledge to do what's needed to meet the target in two years." (Bloomberg) Cyprus has agreed to sell gold worth €400m from its reserves as part of its contribution to the bailout, roiling the precious metal markets as investors feared it could set a precedent for other troubled eurozone countries. Gold prices fell 1.65% on the news, which would see 10 tonnes sold from the Cypriot central bank's total holdings of 13.9 tonnes. It would be the first such sale by a country seeking international assistance since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, when South Korea asked the public to donate jewellery to the central bank for the good of the nation. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Cyprus debt sustainability analysis document leaked: The gold sale was contained in the leaked bailout document, which also showed Nicosia's own contribution has almost doubled to €13bn, and the total price tag of the bailout has risen to €23bn from €17bn in the initial proposal. (FT Brussels Blog) A second eurozone sovereign restructuring? The DSA's assertion that 1bn in domestic-law sovereign debt would be rolled over via a "voluntary sovereign bond exchange" has echoes of the Greek PSI. (FT Alphaville) BP investors plan to protest chiefs' pay: Three of the company's biggest investors said they would abstain from key votes on the company's remuneration report and the re-election of chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg and remunerations committee chairman Antony Burgmans. "These investors said they had concerns about Mr Svanberg's decision to take up the chairmanship ofVolvo, and, more broadly, about his stewardship of BP since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster." (Financial Times) M&S investors target Bolland over sales: The retailer's final-quarter update today is expected to contain a fresh fall in clothing sales, and several of the company's biggest investors are seeking greater clarity on CEO Marc Bolland's strategy to address concerns over current trading in the division. (Financial Times) Dimon apologies again over Whale: "Five pages of Mr. Dimon's 30-page annual letter to shareholders, released Wednesday, outlined "lessons learned" from the incident, which damaged Mr. Dimon's standing as the best risk manager on Wall Street." (Wall Street Journal) FOMC minutes released early went to bank staff: The accidental release of the rate-setting meeting minutes 19 hours early on Tuesday went to Congressional staffers and also to staff at Fifth Third, Barclays, Regions Financial, Wells Fargo, Citi, UBS, US Bancorp, Goldman, JPMorgan and PNC Financial. "The potential damage may have been limited by the fact that the minutes contained no explosive revelations. It showed participants were ready to slow the QE3 programme of asset purchases in the summer or early autumn. Weak payrolls data, however, may already have changed plans." (Financial Times) Luxembourg said it would exchange information with the rest of the EU about EU holders of bank accounts in the country. (Wall Street Journal) Trader who received KPMG tips issues apology: Bryan Shaw, a trader who said he received insider tips from fired KPMG LLP partner Scott London, apologised and said he's been cooperating with the Justice Department and US Securities and Exchange Commission. Shaw said he "profited substantially" from trades based on non-public information and, "I cannot begin to apologize for my incredibly stupid actions." (Bloomberg) Trafigura raises $500m with perpetual bond: The trading house initially targeted $300m with the bond, which was five times subscribed, will yield a 7.65% coupon. "The bond issue is the latest sign that the traditionally employee-owned commodity trading industry is opening up to new sources of capital, as European banks scale back their lending activities in the sector just as traders need more credit." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Merkel a shoo-in; austerity set to remain popular in Germany. (Financial Times) - Sanofi's attempts to shut down a French factory. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +162.45 (+1.22%) at 13,451 Topix up +17.79 (+1.59%) at 1,139 Hang Seng up +185.98 (+0.84%) at 22,221 US markets S&P 500 up +19.12 (+1.22%) at 1,588 DJIA up +128.78 (+0.88%) at 14,802 Nasdaq up +59.39 (+1.83%) at 3,297 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +20.82 (+1.79%) at 1,186 FTSE100 up +74.16 (+1.17%) at 6,387 CAC 40 up +72.99 (+1.99%) at 3,744 Dax up +173.12 (+2.27%) at 7,811 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.56 (99.77) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.18 at 105.61 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.33 at 94.31 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.00 at 1,559 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 341.40 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.81% UK 1.80% Germany 1.31% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.2bps at 101.95bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.98bps at 110.02bp Markit iTraxx Xover -20.44bps at 449.8bp Markit CDX IG -2.79bps at 82bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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