EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 48.5 / Consensus: 45.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 13.6 / Consensus: 15.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

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UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.8% / Consensus: 2.8%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.3%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

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UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.7% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 16/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.3% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-16 05:47:27 by Kate Mackenzie Most Asian stock markets fell and risk assets were generally lower, with poor sentiment attributed to unexpected falls in US housing starts and China's GDP growth, as well as the Boston marathon bombings. The Nikkei rose slightly and the yen weakened 0.3% but the MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.9% lower. Earlier, the S&P500 closed with its biggest lossin five months. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) "Two powerful bombs exploded near the finish line of the Boston Marathon on Monday afternoon, killing three people, including an 8-year-old child, and injuring more than 100..." (New York Times) Spot gold fell as much as 1.9% to $1,325/oz and gold futures for February 2014 deliver fell as much as 10% in Tokyo. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Dish bids $25.5bn for Sprint in challenge to Softbank: Charlie Ergen, chairman of Dish Network, launched a $25.5bn offer for Sprint Nextel that trumped an agreed deal for the US wireless carrier by Japan's SoftBank. The unsolicited cash and stock bid, which would marry the second-ranked US satellite television operator with the third-largest US mobile phone provider. Softbank shares fell the most in six months in Tokyo amid fears the Japanese company would raise its own bid. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) Charterhouse may pull sales amid low interest: UK buyout house Charterhouse may pull two of Europe's largest private equity disposals because of a lack of competitive bidding interest, highlighting the difficult dealmaking environment for buyouts in the region. Only one planned bid emerged for Ista, the German metering company, and it was expected the offer may fall short of its asking price of at least €3bn. This mirrors a similar shortage of bidders in Elior, a French caterer that Charterhouse took private in 2006, for which there only appears to be one interested party, according to people with knowledge of the situation. (Financial Times) ENRC hit by whistleblower claim: "ENRC has suspended one of its managers in Africa due to whistleblower allegations of impropriety in the latest blow to the FTSE 100 miner left reeling by investor concerns over corporate governance." The manager in Mozambique has been suspended pending the outcome of an internal investigation, the company said. (Financial Times) Greece on track to receive aid tranche: "Greece has identified some 15,000 public-sector workers to be let go over two years as part of a tentative agreement sealed Monday with its international lenders to unlock the next payments from its €173 billion ($226 billion) bailout." Finance minister Yannis Stournaras said Greece may ask for more debt relief. (Wall Street Journal)(Reuters) Business confidence among finance chiefs of the UK's biggest companies has risen sharply as worries about economic and financial uncertainty have dropped to their lowest level for two-and-a-half-years, a quarterly survey by Deloitte shows. (Financial Times) JPMorgan to be faulted over Madoff: The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is expected to issue a cease-and-desist order against JPMorgan for failing to conduct adequate due diligence and report suspicious activity relating to Bernie Madoff's activities, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Reuters) Creditors reject Energy Future proposal: Energy Future Holdings, the Texas power producer that in 2007 was the subject of the largest-ever leveraged buyout, has reached out to creditors to propose a pre-packaged bankruptcy for one of its principal units and a consensual restructuring of its $32bn of debt. But lenders who control the senior debt turned down the complicated proposal and broke off talks. (Financial Times) Trafigura staff net $1.6bn in share deals: The commodities trading house handed about $1.6bn to its senior employees in the past three years by buying back their shares, according to a bond prospectus. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gideon Rachman: Europeans are losing faith in national and EU institutions. (Financial Times) - Charted: Paulson's $1bn losing gold bet. (Bloomberg) - Get used to slower China growth. (Bloomberg) - Apartments, jewellery and some distinctly modest cars described as French ministers reveal their wealth. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +20.79 (+0.16%) at 13,296 Topix down -14.58 (-1.27%) at 1,134 Hang Seng down -124.52 (-0.57%) at 21,648 US markets S&P 500 down -36.49 (-2.30%) at 1,552 DJIA down -265.86 (-1.79%) at 14,599 Nasdaq down -78.46 (-2.38%) at 3,216 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -7.50 (-0.63%) at 1,175 FTSE100 down -40.79 (-0.64%) at 6,344 CAC 40 down -18.82 (-0.50%) at 3,710 Dax down -32.14 (-0.41%) at 7,713 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.30) $/¥ 96.78 (98.40) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.10 at 99.53 Light Crude (Nymex) down -3.27 at 87.39 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -13.90 at 1,347 Copper (Comex) down -4.70 at 329.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.73% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.92bps at 101.74bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.61bps at 111.57bp Markit iTraxx Xover +5.28bps at 447.96bp Markit CDX IG +3.31bps at 85.34bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/04/2013

Time: 14:00 - 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $25.7B / Consensus: $41.3B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-15 05:48:51 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stock markets and most commodities fell after Chinese GDP and other economic data came in below economists' estimates. The Nikkei and Hang Seng both fell 1.5% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was 1% lower. (Bloomberg) China's Q1 GDP growth was 7.7%, missing estimates. The country reported 7.7% year-on-year growth while median economist forecasts were for 8% according to a Reuters poll. Industrial production grew 9.5%, compared to 10% for the same period in 2012 and retail sales rose 12.4% in the quarter, 1.9 percentage points lower than last year. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Gold, silver prices tumble: Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 3.9% to $1,425.75 an ounce, the lowest level since April 2011, while silver fell 5% to its lowest level since November 2010. (Bloomberg) Global economy in a rut: "The global economy is stuck in a rut, unable to sustain a decent recovery and susceptible to a sudden stall, according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index of recovery." (Financial Times) Troika officials arrive in Lisbon today to assess a new round of austerity measures as the government struggles to keep the country's €78bn rescue programme on track and avoid a second bailout. The mission will determine payment of the next €2bn installment of Portugal's bailout loans and final approval of an agreement to give Lisbon seven more years to pay them back. (Financial Times) "BT will significantly undercut the pricing of Sky subscriptions for pubs as the telecoms group attempts to snatch some of the £300m market for its new sports channel launching this summer... Sky has already offered some large pub groups heavy discounts of up to 30%, people with knowledge of recent negotiations told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) Hopes of full payout for Lehman Europe creditors rise: Creditors of the European arm of the bank may receive payment with interest. "In a report sent out to creditors on Friday, administrators PwC said there was a "reasonable chance" of repayment in full of the £15bn in unsecured claims, following a string of legal victories against other defunct Lehman entities in recent months." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Wolfgang Münchau: One currency, many values. (Financial Times) - BoJ triggers emerging market fund inflows. (Wall Street Journal) - Ed Luce: Why the US envies Germany. (Financial Times) - Oil tanker woes. (Wall Street Journal) - Dividend recaps are back in Europe: fastest pace since the credit boom. (Financial Times) - Lucy Kellaway: Worst-performing employees are often the most engaged. (Financial Times) - World Bank cuts China 2013 forecast to 8.3% from 8.4%. Really. (Reuters) - Top hedge fund managers saw a big fall in returns last year. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -199.08 (-1.48%) at 13,286 Topix down -15.86 (-1.38%) at 1,133 Hang Seng down -336.00 (-1.52%) at 21,753 US markets S&P 500 down -4.52 (-0.28%) at 1,589 DJIA down -0.08 (0.00%) at 14,865 Nasdaq down -5.21 (-0.16%) at 3,295 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -10.77 (-0.90%) at 1,182 FTSE100 down -31.75 (-0.49%) at 6,384 CAC 40 unchanged 0.00 (0.00%) at 3,729 Dax down -126.86 (-1.61%) at 7,745 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.66 (97.70) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -2.15 at 100.96 Light Crude (Nymex) down -2.52 at 88.77 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -61.60 at 1,439 Copper (Comex) down -3.65 at 331.25 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.73% UK 1.73% Germany 1.26% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.69bps at 100.82bp Markit iTraxx Europe +2.99bps at 110.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +8.42bps at 442.68bp Markit CDX IG +0.47bps at 82.03bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 15/04/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.2%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 12/04/2013

Time: 17:30 - 18:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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