US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 385K / Consensus: 365K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-11 05:49:47 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose for a fourth day and the yen neared 100 to the dollar. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1 percent, the Nikkei rose 1.2% and the Kospi was just 0.1% higher after the Bank of Korea kept borrowing costs steady. (Bloomberg) China's forex reserves and credit grow sharply: China is once again facing heavy capital inflows after its forex reserves rose $130bn to $3.44tn in the first quarter, helping to fuel a surge in credit growth amid concerns about the level of debt in the economy. It's the biggest quarterly increase since the second quarter of 2011 and marks a sharp reversal from last year when money exited China. Total new financing in the economy grew 58% to Rmb6.2tn ($1tn) compared to the same period in 2012. (Financial Times) Kuroda says BoJ has done all it can for now: The Bank of Japan's Haruhiko Kuroda said the stimulus measures announced at his first meeting as governor last week is enough to achieve a 2% inflation goal. "The central bank has taken all "necessary" and "possible" measures, Kuroda told reporters in Tokyo yesterday. While officials will change policy as needed, he doesn't expect adjustments each month, he said. The BOJ chief reiterated a pledge to do what's needed to meet the target in two years." (Bloomberg) Cyprus has agreed to sell gold worth €400m from its reserves as part of its contribution to the bailout, roiling the precious metal markets as investors feared it could set a precedent for other troubled eurozone countries. Gold prices fell 1.65% on the news, which would see 10 tonnes sold from the Cypriot central bank's total holdings of 13.9 tonnes. It would be the first such sale by a country seeking international assistance since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98, when South Korea asked the public to donate jewellery to the central bank for the good of the nation. (Financial Times)(Reuters) Cyprus debt sustainability analysis document leaked: The gold sale was contained in the leaked bailout document, which also showed Nicosia's own contribution has almost doubled to €13bn, and the total price tag of the bailout has risen to €23bn from €17bn in the initial proposal. (FT Brussels Blog) A second eurozone sovereign restructuring? The DSA's assertion that 1bn in domestic-law sovereign debt would be rolled over via a "voluntary sovereign bond exchange" has echoes of the Greek PSI. (FT Alphaville) BP investors plan to protest chiefs' pay: Three of the company's biggest investors said they would abstain from key votes on the company's remuneration report and the re-election of chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg and remunerations committee chairman Antony Burgmans. "These investors said they had concerns about Mr Svanberg's decision to take up the chairmanship ofVolvo, and, more broadly, about his stewardship of BP since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster." (Financial Times) M&S investors target Bolland over sales: The retailer's final-quarter update today is expected to contain a fresh fall in clothing sales, and several of the company's biggest investors are seeking greater clarity on CEO Marc Bolland's strategy to address concerns over current trading in the division. (Financial Times) Dimon apologies again over Whale: "Five pages of Mr. Dimon's 30-page annual letter to shareholders, released Wednesday, outlined "lessons learned" from the incident, which damaged Mr. Dimon's standing as the best risk manager on Wall Street." (Wall Street Journal) FOMC minutes released early went to bank staff: The accidental release of the rate-setting meeting minutes 19 hours early on Tuesday went to Congressional staffers and also to staff at Fifth Third, Barclays, Regions Financial, Wells Fargo, Citi, UBS, US Bancorp, Goldman, JPMorgan and PNC Financial. "The potential damage may have been limited by the fact that the minutes contained no explosive revelations. It showed participants were ready to slow the QE3 programme of asset purchases in the summer or early autumn. Weak payrolls data, however, may already have changed plans." (Financial Times) Luxembourg said it would exchange information with the rest of the EU about EU holders of bank accounts in the country. (Wall Street Journal) Trader who received KPMG tips issues apology: Bryan Shaw, a trader who said he received insider tips from fired KPMG LLP partner Scott London, apologised and said he's been cooperating with the Justice Department and US Securities and Exchange Commission. Shaw said he "profited substantially" from trades based on non-public information and, "I cannot begin to apologize for my incredibly stupid actions." (Bloomberg) Trafigura raises $500m with perpetual bond: The trading house initially targeted $300m with the bond, which was five times subscribed, will yield a 7.65% coupon. "The bond issue is the latest sign that the traditionally employee-owned commodity trading industry is opening up to new sources of capital, as European banks scale back their lending activities in the sector just as traders need more credit." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Merkel a shoo-in; austerity set to remain popular in Germany. (Financial Times) - Sanofi's attempts to shut down a French factory. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +162.45 (+1.22%) at 13,451 Topix up +17.79 (+1.59%) at 1,139 Hang Seng up +185.98 (+0.84%) at 22,221 US markets S&P 500 up +19.12 (+1.22%) at 1,588 DJIA up +128.78 (+0.88%) at 14,802 Nasdaq up +59.39 (+1.83%) at 3,297 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +20.82 (+1.79%) at 1,186 FTSE100 up +74.16 (+1.17%) at 6,387 CAC 40 up +72.99 (+1.99%) at 3,744 Dax up +173.12 (+2.27%) at 7,811 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 99.56 (99.77) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.18 at 105.61 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.33 at 94.31 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.00 at 1,559 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 341.40 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.81% UK 1.80% Germany 1.31% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.2bps at 101.95bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.98bps at 110.02bp Markit iTraxx Xover -20.44bps at 449.8bp Markit CDX IG -2.79bps at 82bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.5% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.6% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

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DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 11/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

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US FOMC Minutes

Location: United States

Date: 10/04/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the US Dollar with the FOMC Minutes

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US Monthly Budget Statement

Location: United States

Date: 10/04/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -203.5B / Consensus: -112.5B

Notes: The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

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US 10-Year Note Auction

Location: United States

Date: 10/04/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.029%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the notes auctioned by US Department of Treasury. US notes have maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years and pay interest every six months. The yield on the bonds represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-10 05:42:36 by Joseph Cotterill Overnight record high for the Dow, Asian stocks rose. In Tokyo the Nikkei edged up as high as 0.9 per cent and shares in Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest bank, headed for their June 2009 high (Bloomberg). Chinese exports grew less than expected for the first time in four months. First-quarter trade with the US rose by 10.8 per cent from a year earlier, but China's trading with the EU fell 1.9 per cent to $124.4bn. Overall shipments abroad rose 10 per cent, below the 11.7 per cent median estimate of forecasters (Bloomberg, Financial Times). EU policymakers discussed including short-term interbank debts on the list of liabilities that can be bailed-in during a bank rescue. The move is among potential amendments to the EU's bail-in directive following haircuts for uninsured depositors in the Cyprus crisis. Northern eurozone governments also proposed accelerating the bail-in tools' entry into force from 2018 to 2015 (Wall Street Journal). European Parliament lawmakers also plan to enshrine a preference for depositors over senior bondholders in the pecking order of creditors under the new rules, including haircuts for uninsured depositors "as a last resort" (Bloomberg). The FBI is investigating insider trading allegations tied to leaks from KPMG's Los Angeles office. KPMG resigned as the auditor of Herbalife and Skechers following its disclosure of the leaks (Reuters). Scott London, the 30-year KPMG veteran at the heart of the case, admitted tipping "someone I'd known from the golf club" (Wall Street Journal). "I regret my actions in leaking nonpublic data to a third party," London said. Vince Cable warned that he is closer to setting quotas for getting more women on FTSE boards. There is a "real possibility" of quotas following data for March showing that 17.3 per cent of FTSE 100 directors were women, the UK Business Secretary said. The figures were down slightly from 17.4 per cent in September but far off a 25 per cent target for 2015 (Financial Times). Southeastern Asset Management said Dell's board had failed to make the case for going private at $13.65 per share. Southeastern, the largest outside shareholder in Dell, attacked Michael Dell's buyout proposal as "unfair". It looked more favourably on competing offers from Blackstone and Carl Icahn in a letter to the board. "We view these proposals as superior primarily because each offers shareholders the opportunity to remain owners of Dell, while also offering a higher cash price to owners who choose to exit their investment," it said (Financial Times). Austria and Luxembourg signalled they are willing to ease their tough bank secrecy rules. The two countries are the only ones in the EU not to automatically exchange information about depositors. The Austrian chancellor said he was "prepared to negotiate about automatic data-exchange concerning the accounts of foreigners in Austria that has been requested by the EU." Luxembourg's finance minister has also said that his country "no longer strictly rejects" changes to bank secrecy (Financial Times). UK companies could face a £450bn bill from EU reforms of pensions. Tough capital requirements for final salary-linked pension schemes could produce a funding gap of this size according to estimates published by the European pensions regulator (Reuters). COMMENT AND CURIOS - Boom times - and "black money" - on the Karachi Stock Exchange. (Reuters) - Meanwhile the Mongolian Stock Exchange wobbles, amid a political face-off with miners (Bloomberg). - Martin Wolf's advice to Japan: "Tax corporate savings, instead." (Financial Times) - Hollande compared to Louis XVI. Ouch. (Financial Times) - How to choreograph a Cyprus eurozone exit. (Bloomberg) - The "world's most-volatile sovereign debt after Greece's" is... Japan. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +80.54 (+0.61%) at 13,272.89 Topix up +17.03 (+1.55%) at 1,119.07 Hang Seng up +21.66 (+0.10%) at 21,892 US markets S&P 500 up 5.54 (+0.35%) at 1,568 DJIA up +59.98 (+0.41%) at 14,673 Nasdaq down +15.61 (+0.48%) at 3,237 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +0.56 (+0.05%) at 1,165 FTSE100 up +36.27 (+0.58%) at 6,313 CAC 40 up +3.94 (+0.11%) at 3,670 Dax down -25.13 (-0.33%) at 7,637 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 98.96 (99.26) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.14 at 106.37 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.30 at 93.90 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.20 at 1,586 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 343.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.75% UK 1.74% Germany 1.26% Sources: FT, Bloomberg
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UK Manufacturing Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -3.0% / Consensus: -1.4%

Notes: The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive ( or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or bearish ).

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UK Goods Trade Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -�8.195B / Consensus: -�8.500B

Notes: The trade balance released by the is a balance between exports and imports of goods A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP. If a steady demand in exchange for UK exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the GBP.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with UK Trade Balance

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UK Industrial Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -2.9% / Consensus: -2.7%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by The National Statistics measures outputs of the U.K. factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as po

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-09 05:49:28 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose as inflation in China eased more than forecast, buoying commodity producers. The Nikkei was 0.1% higher, the ASX rose 1.1% and the MSCI Asia Pacific was up 0.3%. (Bloomberg) Chinese inflation slows in March: "Consumer prices rose 2.1% in March from a year earlier, below expectations and down from a ten-month high of 3.2% in February when China celebrated its Lunar New Year. Food price inflation, which had surged to 6% year on year in February, fell back to a pace of 2.7%. Looking past the seasonal rise and fall in prices caused by the holiday, Chinese inflation has remained mild this year. The average increase in consumer prices in the first quarter was 2.4 per cent, up only a little from the final quarter of 2012. Analysts said the subdued inflation was a reflection of how the Chinese economic recovery has been steady but unspectacular." (Financial Times) Bernanke says stress tests are great: ""The resilience of the U.S. banking system has greatly improved since [2009], and the more intensive use and greater sophistication of supervisory stress testing, as well as supervisors' increased emphasis on the effectiveness of banks' own capital planning processes, deserve some credit for that improvement." (Reuters)(Speech text) North Koreans didn't show up for work today at Kaesong industrial park near the border, effectively shutting down the factory complex operated with South Korea for the first time since shipments began in 2004. Pyongyang's decision to halt work there coincides with speculation it plans to carry out a missile launch, or even another nuclear test. (Reuters) GE agreed to buy Lufkin Industries, an oil and gas pumpmaker, for $3.3bn. The cash deal values Lufkin at 38% above its closing price on Friday. (Financial Times) Ron Johnson is out at JCPenney. Mike Ullman will rejoin the company as chief executive two years after Johnson, a veteran of Target and Apple, ousted him and came in to overhaul the retailer's strategy. Bill Ackman, previously one of Johnson's strongest supporters, last week described the overhaul's execution as "something very close to a disaster" (CNBC). COMMENT AND CURIOUS: Margaret Thatcher obits (mostly from The Closer, our US end of day email) WSJ obit Telegraph obit NYT obit The pragmatic politician who defended free markets – Martin Wolf Did Thatcher turn Britain around? Paul Krugman Thatcher's relentless focus to improve UK economy – Chris Giles Thatcher, Liberator – Andrew Sullivan How Thatcher saved Britain - Clive Crook - On UK banks' leverage ratios. (Financial Times) - Climate change likely to raise risk of turbulence on transatlantic flights by 40% - 170% by 2050. (Financial Times) - The rotation into stocks is about sectors, not asset classes. (Financial Times) - Nick Leeson is back... renegotiating debt in Ireland. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +6.44 (+0.05%) at 13,199 Topix down -5.64 (-0.51%) at 1,096 Hang Seng up +200.04 (+0.92%) at 21,918 US markets S&P 500 up +9.79 (+0.63%) at 1,563 DJIA up +48.23 (+0.33%) at 14,613 Nasdaq up +18.39 (+0.57%) at 3,222 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +2.58 (+0.22%) at 1,165 FTSE100 up +27.16 (+0.43%) at 6,277 CAC 40 up +3.30 (+0.09%) at 3,667 Dax up +3.89 (+0.05%) at 7,663 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.26 (99.35) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.52 at 105.18 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.25 at 93.61 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.90 at 1,574 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 336.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.74% UK 1.71% Germany 1.25% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.6bps at 101.37bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.1bps at 116.57bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.42bps at 476.95bp Markit CDX IG -1.49bps at 85.45bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Trade Balance s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �15.7B / Consensus: �15.1B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance

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