US FOMC Minutes

Location: United States

Date: 10/04/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the US Dollar with the FOMC Minutes

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US Monthly Budget Statement

Location: United States

Date: 10/04/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -203.5B / Consensus: -112.5B

Notes: The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

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US 10-Year Note Auction

Location: United States

Date: 10/04/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.029%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the notes auctioned by US Department of Treasury. US notes have maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years and pay interest every six months. The yield on the bonds represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-10 05:42:36 by Joseph Cotterill Overnight record high for the Dow, Asian stocks rose. In Tokyo the Nikkei edged up as high as 0.9 per cent and shares in Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest bank, headed for their June 2009 high (Bloomberg). Chinese exports grew less than expected for the first time in four months. First-quarter trade with the US rose by 10.8 per cent from a year earlier, but China's trading with the EU fell 1.9 per cent to $124.4bn. Overall shipments abroad rose 10 per cent, below the 11.7 per cent median estimate of forecasters (Bloomberg, Financial Times). EU policymakers discussed including short-term interbank debts on the list of liabilities that can be bailed-in during a bank rescue. The move is among potential amendments to the EU's bail-in directive following haircuts for uninsured depositors in the Cyprus crisis. Northern eurozone governments also proposed accelerating the bail-in tools' entry into force from 2018 to 2015 (Wall Street Journal). European Parliament lawmakers also plan to enshrine a preference for depositors over senior bondholders in the pecking order of creditors under the new rules, including haircuts for uninsured depositors "as a last resort" (Bloomberg). The FBI is investigating insider trading allegations tied to leaks from KPMG's Los Angeles office. KPMG resigned as the auditor of Herbalife and Skechers following its disclosure of the leaks (Reuters). Scott London, the 30-year KPMG veteran at the heart of the case, admitted tipping "someone I'd known from the golf club" (Wall Street Journal). "I regret my actions in leaking nonpublic data to a third party," London said. Vince Cable warned that he is closer to setting quotas for getting more women on FTSE boards. There is a "real possibility" of quotas following data for March showing that 17.3 per cent of FTSE 100 directors were women, the UK Business Secretary said. The figures were down slightly from 17.4 per cent in September but far off a 25 per cent target for 2015 (Financial Times). Southeastern Asset Management said Dell's board had failed to make the case for going private at $13.65 per share. Southeastern, the largest outside shareholder in Dell, attacked Michael Dell's buyout proposal as "unfair". It looked more favourably on competing offers from Blackstone and Carl Icahn in a letter to the board. "We view these proposals as superior primarily because each offers shareholders the opportunity to remain owners of Dell, while also offering a higher cash price to owners who choose to exit their investment," it said (Financial Times). Austria and Luxembourg signalled they are willing to ease their tough bank secrecy rules. The two countries are the only ones in the EU not to automatically exchange information about depositors. The Austrian chancellor said he was "prepared to negotiate about automatic data-exchange concerning the accounts of foreigners in Austria that has been requested by the EU." Luxembourg's finance minister has also said that his country "no longer strictly rejects" changes to bank secrecy (Financial Times). UK companies could face a £450bn bill from EU reforms of pensions. Tough capital requirements for final salary-linked pension schemes could produce a funding gap of this size according to estimates published by the European pensions regulator (Reuters). COMMENT AND CURIOS - Boom times - and "black money" - on the Karachi Stock Exchange. (Reuters) - Meanwhile the Mongolian Stock Exchange wobbles, amid a political face-off with miners (Bloomberg). - Martin Wolf's advice to Japan: "Tax corporate savings, instead." (Financial Times) - Hollande compared to Louis XVI. Ouch. (Financial Times) - How to choreograph a Cyprus eurozone exit. (Bloomberg) - The "world's most-volatile sovereign debt after Greece's" is... Japan. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +80.54 (+0.61%) at 13,272.89 Topix up +17.03 (+1.55%) at 1,119.07 Hang Seng up +21.66 (+0.10%) at 21,892 US markets S&P 500 up 5.54 (+0.35%) at 1,568 DJIA up +59.98 (+0.41%) at 14,673 Nasdaq down +15.61 (+0.48%) at 3,237 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +0.56 (+0.05%) at 1,165 FTSE100 up +36.27 (+0.58%) at 6,313 CAC 40 up +3.94 (+0.11%) at 3,670 Dax down -25.13 (-0.33%) at 7,637 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 98.96 (99.26) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.14 at 106.37 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.30 at 93.90 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.20 at 1,586 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 343.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.75% UK 1.74% Germany 1.26% Sources: FT, Bloomberg
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UK Manufacturing Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -3.0% / Consensus: -1.4%

Notes: The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive ( or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or bearish ).

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UK Goods Trade Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -�8.195B / Consensus: -�8.500B

Notes: The trade balance released by the is a balance between exports and imports of goods A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP. If a steady demand in exchange for UK exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the GBP.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with UK Trade Balance

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UK Industrial Production (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -2.9% / Consensus: -2.7%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by The National Statistics measures outputs of the U.K. factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as po

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-09 05:49:28 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose as inflation in China eased more than forecast, buoying commodity producers. The Nikkei was 0.1% higher, the ASX rose 1.1% and the MSCI Asia Pacific was up 0.3%. (Bloomberg) Chinese inflation slows in March: "Consumer prices rose 2.1% in March from a year earlier, below expectations and down from a ten-month high of 3.2% in February when China celebrated its Lunar New Year. Food price inflation, which had surged to 6% year on year in February, fell back to a pace of 2.7%. Looking past the seasonal rise and fall in prices caused by the holiday, Chinese inflation has remained mild this year. The average increase in consumer prices in the first quarter was 2.4 per cent, up only a little from the final quarter of 2012. Analysts said the subdued inflation was a reflection of how the Chinese economic recovery has been steady but unspectacular." (Financial Times) Bernanke says stress tests are great: ""The resilience of the U.S. banking system has greatly improved since [2009], and the more intensive use and greater sophistication of supervisory stress testing, as well as supervisors' increased emphasis on the effectiveness of banks' own capital planning processes, deserve some credit for that improvement." (Reuters)(Speech text) North Koreans didn't show up for work today at Kaesong industrial park near the border, effectively shutting down the factory complex operated with South Korea for the first time since shipments began in 2004. Pyongyang's decision to halt work there coincides with speculation it plans to carry out a missile launch, or even another nuclear test. (Reuters) GE agreed to buy Lufkin Industries, an oil and gas pumpmaker, for $3.3bn. The cash deal values Lufkin at 38% above its closing price on Friday. (Financial Times) Ron Johnson is out at JCPenney. Mike Ullman will rejoin the company as chief executive two years after Johnson, a veteran of Target and Apple, ousted him and came in to overhaul the retailer's strategy. Bill Ackman, previously one of Johnson's strongest supporters, last week described the overhaul's execution as "something very close to a disaster" (CNBC). COMMENT AND CURIOUS: Margaret Thatcher obits (mostly from The Closer, our US end of day email) WSJ obit Telegraph obit NYT obit The pragmatic politician who defended free markets – Martin Wolf Did Thatcher turn Britain around? Paul Krugman Thatcher's relentless focus to improve UK economy – Chris Giles Thatcher, Liberator – Andrew Sullivan How Thatcher saved Britain - Clive Crook - On UK banks' leverage ratios. (Financial Times) - Climate change likely to raise risk of turbulence on transatlantic flights by 40% - 170% by 2050. (Financial Times) - The rotation into stocks is about sectors, not asset classes. (Financial Times) - Nick Leeson is back... renegotiating debt in Ireland. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +6.44 (+0.05%) at 13,199 Topix down -5.64 (-0.51%) at 1,096 Hang Seng up +200.04 (+0.92%) at 21,918 US markets S&P 500 up +9.79 (+0.63%) at 1,563 DJIA up +48.23 (+0.33%) at 14,613 Nasdaq up +18.39 (+0.57%) at 3,222 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +2.58 (+0.22%) at 1,165 FTSE100 up +27.16 (+0.43%) at 6,277 CAC 40 up +3.30 (+0.09%) at 3,667 Dax up +3.89 (+0.05%) at 7,663 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 99.26 (99.35) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.52 at 105.18 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.25 at 93.61 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.90 at 1,574 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 336.80 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.74% UK 1.71% Germany 1.25% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.6bps at 101.37bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.1bps at 116.57bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.42bps at 476.95bp Markit CDX IG -1.49bps at 85.45bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Trade Balance s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 09/04/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �15.7B / Consensus: �15.1B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus, while a negative value shows a trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. If a steady demand in exchange for German exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany Trade Balance

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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 08/04/2013

Time: 0:15 - 1:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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UK RICS Housing Price Balance

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 08/04/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -6% / Consensus: -4%

Notes: The RICS Housing Price Balance survey released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors presents housing costs in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole, as the housing market is sensitive to the business cycle. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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DE Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 08/04/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.3%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Sentix Investor Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 08/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -10.6 / Consensus: -13.1

Notes: With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually a higher reading is seen as positive for the Euro zone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with ESI

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-08 05:48:24 by Kate Mackenzie Japanese stocks rose sharply while other Asian markets were flat or down on bird flu fears. The Nikkei was 2.4% higher and the yen fell as low as 98.85 per dollar, its lowest level since June 2009, after last week's Bank of Japan announcements and news of purchases today. The BoJ today said it would buy Y1tn ($10.3bn) of JGBs with maturities of between five years and 10 years, and Y200bn of bonds with maturities exceeding 10 years. However the MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.5% lower. (Reuters)(Bloomberg) Portugal announces fresh austerity cuts to offset court ruling: Portugal's prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho said the government would have to cut spending on health, education and social security to meet requirements of the country's bailout programme, after the country's constitutional court on Friday night ruled that cuts to state pensions and public sector wages were unconstitutional. The proposed pension and wages cuts were estimated to account for about a fifth of the €5bn savings targeted from austerity measures this year, in order to comply with an adjustment programme and efforts to regain international bond market access by September. However the new cuts are likely intensify opposition pressure on the government to resign, potentially opening the way to an early general election.(Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Alcoa kicks off US earnings season today; its Q1 underlying earnings per share are expected to fall to $0.08 from $0.10 last year. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Luxembourg hints at relenting on bank secrecy: "There is an international trend towards an automatic exchange of information," Luc Frieden, the Luxembourg finance minister, said in an interview with the weekly Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. "In contrast to the past, we no longer strictly reject doing this."" (Wall Street Journal) MUFG in talks to buy Deutsche US loans: Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is "in advanced talks to buy US commercial property loans from Deutsche Bank worth about $3.7 billion (2.4), a source familiar with the matter said on Monday". (Reuters) Greece's NBG-Eurobank merger suspended: "National Bank's plan to absorb Eurobank to form Greece's biggest banking group will be suspended until both are recapitalised, and a state bank support fund will decide if the they should merge, a Finance Ministry official said on Sunday." (Reuters) China's local government debt could be twice as big: "China's local governments may have more than 20 trillion yuan ($3.2 trillion) of debt, former Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said, almost double the figure given in a 2011 report by the National Audit Office." (Bloomberg) IMF welcomes Bank of Japan policies: Christine Lagarde said on Sunday that loose monetary policies and "unconventional measures" had helped boost global growth and "the reforms just announced by the BoJ are another welcome step in this direction". (Financial Times) Lew to press Europe leaders over growth, austerity: Jacob Lew began his first trip to Europe as US Treasury secretary on Sunday, " a four-city tour in which he is expected to try to persuade finance ministers to pursue a little more growth and a little less austerity" (New York Times) UK welfare spending cuts difficult without targeting pensioners: Research by the Social Market Foundation shows that the big driver of welfare spending in the next five years will be growing numbers of elderly people and the consequent rise in pensions and universal benefits, rather than working age benefits. (Financial Times) Manchester Utd signs $240m, 8-year sponsorship deal with Aon: The US insurance broker will sponsor the club's training ground and training kit as it seeks a place in the hearts of the football club's huge Asian fan base. Man Utd's training ground at Carrington will be renamed the Aon Training Complex and Aon replaces DHL as the club's training kit sponsor. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Abenomics: Now for the hard part. (Financial Times) - Central banks move into riskier assets. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Münchau: The ECB has to get unconventional to help southern Europe. (Financial Times) - Google's Grand Implant Agenda. (Financial Times) - The amount of US dollars in circulation has risen 42% in five years. (Financial Times) - After growing rich on the misfortunes of its neighbours, Cyprus reaches end of the road. (Financial Times) - Samsung Electronics is spending more on marketing than development for the first time in three years. (Reuters) - Arvind Subramanian says we're in a golden age of global growth. (Financial Times) - Peter Orszag: The move to a chained CPI may have less effect than expected. (Bloomberg) - On outsourcing fragile banking. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +309.48 (+2.41%) at 13,143 Topix up +25.32 (+2.37%) at 1,092 Hang Seng up +23.76 (+0.11%) at 21,751 US markets S&P 500 down -6.70 (-0.43%) at 1,553 DJIA down -40.86 (-0.28%) at 14,565 Nasdaq down -21.12 (-0.65%) at 3,204 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -18.44 (-1.56%) at 1,162 FTSE100 down -94.34 (-1.49%) at 6,250 CAC 40 down -62.68 (-1.68%) at 3,663 Dax down -158.64 (-2.03%) at 7,659 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 98.54 (97.84) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.58 at 104.70 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.25 at 92.95 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +0.20 at 1,576 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 334.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.63% Germany 1.22% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.75bps at 102.97bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.65bps at 118.67bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.01bps at 478.37bp Markit CDX IG -1.08bps at 86.94bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Consumer Credit Change

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 20:00 - 21:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $16.15B / Consensus: $15.00B

Notes: The Consumer Credit released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is an amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

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