EMU Sentix Investor Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 08/04/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -10.6 / Consensus: -13.1

Notes: With among 1600 financial analysts and institutional investors, the Sentix Investor Confidence is a monthly survey which shows the market opinion about the current economic situation and the expectations for the next semester. The index, released by the Sentix GmbH, is composed by 36 different indicators. Usually a higher reading is seen as positive for the Euro zone, that means positive, or bullish, for the Euro, While a lower number is seen negative or bearish for the unique currency.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with ESI

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-08 05:48:24 by Kate Mackenzie Japanese stocks rose sharply while other Asian markets were flat or down on bird flu fears. The Nikkei was 2.4% higher and the yen fell as low as 98.85 per dollar, its lowest level since June 2009, after last week's Bank of Japan announcements and news of purchases today. The BoJ today said it would buy Y1tn ($10.3bn) of JGBs with maturities of between five years and 10 years, and Y200bn of bonds with maturities exceeding 10 years. However the MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.5% lower. (Reuters)(Bloomberg) Portugal announces fresh austerity cuts to offset court ruling: Portugal's prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho said the government would have to cut spending on health, education and social security to meet requirements of the country's bailout programme, after the country's constitutional court on Friday night ruled that cuts to state pensions and public sector wages were unconstitutional. The proposed pension and wages cuts were estimated to account for about a fifth of the €5bn savings targeted from austerity measures this year, in order to comply with an adjustment programme and efforts to regain international bond market access by September. However the new cuts are likely intensify opposition pressure on the government to resign, potentially opening the way to an early general election.(Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Alcoa kicks off US earnings season today; its Q1 underlying earnings per share are expected to fall to $0.08 from $0.10 last year. (Wall Street Journal)(Financial Times) Luxembourg hints at relenting on bank secrecy: "There is an international trend towards an automatic exchange of information," Luc Frieden, the Luxembourg finance minister, said in an interview with the weekly Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. "In contrast to the past, we no longer strictly reject doing this."" (Wall Street Journal) MUFG in talks to buy Deutsche US loans: Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is "in advanced talks to buy US commercial property loans from Deutsche Bank worth about $3.7 billion (2.4), a source familiar with the matter said on Monday". (Reuters) Greece's NBG-Eurobank merger suspended: "National Bank's plan to absorb Eurobank to form Greece's biggest banking group will be suspended until both are recapitalised, and a state bank support fund will decide if the they should merge, a Finance Ministry official said on Sunday." (Reuters) China's local government debt could be twice as big: "China's local governments may have more than 20 trillion yuan ($3.2 trillion) of debt, former Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said, almost double the figure given in a 2011 report by the National Audit Office." (Bloomberg) IMF welcomes Bank of Japan policies: Christine Lagarde said on Sunday that loose monetary policies and "unconventional measures" had helped boost global growth and "the reforms just announced by the BoJ are another welcome step in this direction". (Financial Times) Lew to press Europe leaders over growth, austerity: Jacob Lew began his first trip to Europe as US Treasury secretary on Sunday, " a four-city tour in which he is expected to try to persuade finance ministers to pursue a little more growth and a little less austerity" (New York Times) UK welfare spending cuts difficult without targeting pensioners: Research by the Social Market Foundation shows that the big driver of welfare spending in the next five years will be growing numbers of elderly people and the consequent rise in pensions and universal benefits, rather than working age benefits. (Financial Times) Manchester Utd signs $240m, 8-year sponsorship deal with Aon: The US insurance broker will sponsor the club's training ground and training kit as it seeks a place in the hearts of the football club's huge Asian fan base. Man Utd's training ground at Carrington will be renamed the Aon Training Complex and Aon replaces DHL as the club's training kit sponsor. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Abenomics: Now for the hard part. (Financial Times) - Central banks move into riskier assets. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Münchau: The ECB has to get unconventional to help southern Europe. (Financial Times) - Google's Grand Implant Agenda. (Financial Times) - The amount of US dollars in circulation has risen 42% in five years. (Financial Times) - After growing rich on the misfortunes of its neighbours, Cyprus reaches end of the road. (Financial Times) - Samsung Electronics is spending more on marketing than development for the first time in three years. (Reuters) - Arvind Subramanian says we're in a golden age of global growth. (Financial Times) - Peter Orszag: The move to a chained CPI may have less effect than expected. (Bloomberg) - On outsourcing fragile banking. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +309.48 (+2.41%) at 13,143 Topix up +25.32 (+2.37%) at 1,092 Hang Seng up +23.76 (+0.11%) at 21,751 US markets S&P 500 down -6.70 (-0.43%) at 1,553 DJIA down -40.86 (-0.28%) at 14,565 Nasdaq down -21.12 (-0.65%) at 3,204 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -18.44 (-1.56%) at 1,162 FTSE100 down -94.34 (-1.49%) at 6,250 CAC 40 down -62.68 (-1.68%) at 3,663 Dax down -158.64 (-2.03%) at 7,659 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 98.54 (97.84) £/$ 1.53 (1.53) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.58 at 104.70 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.25 at 92.95 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +0.20 at 1,576 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 334.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.70% UK 1.63% Germany 1.22% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.75bps at 102.97bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.65bps at 118.67bp Markit iTraxx Xover -1.01bps at 478.37bp Markit CDX IG -1.08bps at 86.94bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Consumer Credit Change

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 20:00 - 21:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $16.15B / Consensus: $15.00B

Notes: The Consumer Credit released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is an amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

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US Trade Balance

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -$44.45B / Consensus: -$44.60B

Notes: The Trade Balance released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for US exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading US Dollar with US Trade Balance

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US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.1%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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US Unemployment Rate

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 7.7% / Consensus: 7.7%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Nonfarm Payrolls

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 236K / Consensus: 200K

Notes: The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

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DE Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 05/04/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -2.5% / Consensus: -1.5%

Notes: The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-04-05 05:49:37 by Kate Mackenzie Asian markets were mixed with Japanese stocks rising almost 3% after the BoJ's new measures announced yesterday. However the Hang Seng fell 2.4% on growing fears around the bird flu outbreak that has killed five people in China, and Korea's Kospi fell 2%, leading the MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.4%. (Bloomberg) The scathing HBOS report is out and in it, the Parliamentary Committee on Banking Standards accuses HBOS's former chairman, Lord Stevenson, and former chief executives Sir James Crosby and Andy Hornby, of presiding over a "colossal failure". The commission said the HBOS "catastrophe" should be seen as a case study of how not to run a bank and called on regulators to consider barring the three directors from any future role in the sector. However the comission's chairman, Andrew Tyrie, stopped short of saying Sir James or Lord Stevenson should be stripped of their titles. (Financial Times) US non-farm payrolls due out today are expected to show a March gain of 200,000 jobs according to Dow Jones' survey of economists, or 190,000, according to Bloomberg's. February posted a 236,000 gain. (Wall Street Journal)(Bloomberg) Former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine helped to bring down the brokerage, according to a report by the company's court-appointed trustee. "Unusually for a chief executive, Mr Corzine executed some of the trades personally, "even placing trades in the middle of meetings"." The document said Corzine and his management team engaged in "negligent conduct". (Financial Times) "Samsung Electronics on Friday said that first-quarter operating profit would be stronger than expected, as the world's largest electronics company by sales stepped up sales of lower-end smartphones in emerging markets despite growing price competition and slowing demand in developed markets." (Financial Times) Enron's Skilling may get to leave jail early: About 6.25 years into a 24-year sentence, Jeffrey Skilling may be able to leave jail early if prosecutors reach and agreement with the former Enron CEO that would result in a resentencing. Victims of Enron's fraud and bankruptcy were notified by the Department of Justice of the possibility, but it's not clear whether an agreement will be reached or by how much his sentence could be reduced. (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gavyn Davies on the risk the BoJ's strategy will work too well. (FT blog) - Soros says new BoJ strategy may trigger a yen "avalanche". (Bloomberg) - Will your Twitter feed make it onto Bloomberg terminals? (Financial Times) - Foreign companies that might start regretting China-focused strategies. (Wall Street Journal) - Big Pharma fears the implications of big data and more transparency. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +375.66 (+2.97%) at 13,010 Topix up +36.60 (+3.53%) at 1,074 Hang Seng down -528.90 (-2.37%) at 21,809 US markets S&P 500 up +6.29 (+0.40%) at 1,560 DJIA up +55.76 (+0.38%) at 14,606 Nasdaq up +6.38 (+0.20%) at 3,225 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -12.65 (-1.06%) at 1,181 FTSE100 down -76.16 (-1.19%) at 6,344 CAC 40 down -28.80 (-0.77%) at 3,726 Dax down -57.36 (-0.73%) at 7,817 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 96.88 (96.33) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.13 at 106.47 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.03 at 93.29 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.60 at 1,551 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 334.55 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.76% UK 1.74% Germany 1.24% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.34bps at 103.72bp Markit iTraxx Europe -0.41bps at 120.32bp Markit iTraxx Xover +4.23bps at 479.38bp Markit CDX IG -1.23bps at 88.02bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 04/04/2013

Time: 15:30 - 16:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 04/04/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 357K / Consensus: 350K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

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EMU ECB Interest Rate Decision

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 04/04/2013

Time: 12:45 - 13:45

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.75% / Consensus: 0.75%

Notes: ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European central Bank. Usually, if the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with the ECB Rate Decision

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UK BoE Asset Purchase Facility

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/04/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: �375B / Consensus: �375B

Notes: The Asset Purchase Facility is the value of money the BoE plans to create and inject into the economy through open market bond purchases as a way to influence long-term interest rates. This monetary policy tool is also called Quantitative Easing.

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UK BoE Interest Rate Decision

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 04/04/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the U.K. economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with BoE Rate Decision

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