DE Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

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UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -26 / Consensus: -27

Notes: The GfK Group Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Normally, a high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is bearish.

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EMU Consumer Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -23.6 / Consensus: -23.5

Notes: The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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EMU Business Climate

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.73 / Consensus: -0.75

Notes: Business climate indicator, released by European Comission, is based on monthly surveys and is designed to deliver a clear and timely assessment of the cyclical situation within the euro area. It may be interpreted as a survey result: a high level indicates that, overall, the surveys point to a healthy cyclical situation. Conversely, a low level points to an adverse business climate. A rise (a fall) in the indicator will point to an upswing in activity and an improvement (deterioration) in the business climate. Its movement is clearly linked to the industrial production of the euro area.

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EMU Industrial Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -11.2 / Consensus: -12.0

Notes: The Industrial Confidence released by the European Commission is an index that measures the level of industrial executives confidence in economic activity. The survey asks about orders and buildup of inventories. A high level of industrial confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.3% / Consensus: -0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Total Business Investment (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.1%

Notes: The Total Business Investment released by the National Statistics presents the total amount of capital expenditures made by private firms. A large business investment is indicative of overall growth and demand in the UK economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Current Account

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �12.8B / Consensus: -�12.7B

Notes: The Current Account released by the National Statistics is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of the UK. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the UK exceeds the capital reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am London Cut Posted 2013-03-27 04:22:53 by FT Alphaville Secret HQ set up in London to fight cyber crime: "Britain's security services are to open a new unit in London to work with business to protect UK companies from the growing threat of cyber attacks by China, Russia and Iran. The new initiative – formally called the Cyber Security Information Sharing partnership – will be established at an undisclosed location in London, where around a dozen officers from the Government Communications Headquarters and MI5 will work with business representatives to monitor potential threats." (Financial Times) The world's pool of Aaa-rated government debt has fallen 60 per cent since the start of the financial crisis. The loss of top ratings by the US, UK, and France have helped shrink the stock of debt deemed Aaa by Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's from almost $11tn at the start of 2007 to $4tn in 2013 (Financial Times). European regulators to charge banks over derivatives: "European antitrust authorities are moving soon to bring a case against some of the world's largest banks alleging collusion in the $27 trillion dollar market for credit derivatives, people familiar with the investigation said. The probe by the European Commission involves 16 financial groups. It focuses on whether they sought to stifle competition from exchanges in the market for credit-default swaps, which pay out when a country or a company defaults on its debts." (Wall Street Journal) Warren Buffett will become one of Goldman's largest shareholders, after a deal to convert billions of dollars of warrants into common stock. Berkshire Hathaway was originally issued the warrants as part of investing $5bn in the bank during the crisis, giving it the right to purchase about 9 per cent of the bank for $115 per share before October 1 this year. Tuesday's revised deal will see Goldman issue Berkshire stock equivalent to the company's paper profit on the position (Financial Times,Goldman statement). Buffett's gain of a 2 per cent stake from the deal will making him a top 10 Goldman shareholder (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg). Bank of Spain sees deeper gloom in 2013: "The Spanish economy will shrink by 1.5 per cent this year and unemployment is set to rise above 27 per cent, the Bank of Spain has predicted. The central bank's latest annual forecast leaves little doubt that 2013 will be an even tougher year for Spaniards than last year, with housing prices also heading for yet another sharp fall. The economy will again be marked by weak domestic demand, a fragile labour market and tight financial conditions, the bank said." (Financial Times) Poland opens way to euro referendum: "Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, took a big political gamble on Tuesday when he opened the door to a referendum on joining the euro, in the face of strong public opposition to the common currency. The move is part of a campaign to prepared Poland to begin the final stages of accession to the single currency by 2015. Mr Tusk had previously opposed a public vote, arguing that Poles had already bound themselves to the euro when they voted in 2003 to join the EU." (Financial Times) US crackdown on Citi laundering laws: "The US Federal Reserve has ordered Citigroup to improve its compliance with anti-money laundering rules, citing deficiencies at an affiliate of Banamex, its prized Mexican banking arm. Citi is required to develop plans to strengthen its anti-money laundering procedures and adequately fund its risk-management programmes. There were no fines as part of the Fed order." (Financial Times) Commodities trading rule call rejected: "Switzerland has sought to ­protect its central role in the commodities trading industry, rejecting calls for stringent regulation in the sector and opting instead to launch a consultation over a set of voluntary principles for the industry. The Swiss government will publish on Wednesday a long-awaited report on the commodities industry, which includes groups such as Glencore, Vitol and Cargill with big offices in cities such as Geneva, Zug and Lugano. The report will stop short of calling for strict mandatory regulation, as campaigners have demanded, instead proposing a wide-ranging consultation about transparency and human rights, according to three people familiar with the discussions." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS - Tax havens are the biggest source of foreign investment in the Brics. - Walt Mossberg reviews the new Flipboard. (Wall Street Journal) - On Calpers and the efficient allocation of capital. (Dealbreaker) - Exchange controls, barter, and Cunning plans. (Nick Rowe) - Foreign investment in US dwarfs money going abroad. (Real Time Economics) - Twitter as the ultimate dopamine dispensary. (Abnormal Returns) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -5.52 (-0.04%) at 12,466 Topix up +1.12 (+0.11%) at 1,046 Hang Seng up +143.92 (+0.65%) at 22,455 US markets S&P 500 up +12.08 (+0.78%) at 1,564 DJIA up +111.90 (+0.77%) at 14,560 Nasdaq up +17.18 (+0.53%) at 3,252 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +2.12 (+0.18%) at 1,189 FTSE100 up +20.99 (+0.33%) at 6,399 CAC 40 up +20.66 (+0.55%) at 3,749 Dax up +8.77 (+0.11%) at 7,880 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 94.73 (94.41) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.09 at 109.27 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.21 at 96.13 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.20 at 1,598 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 343.35 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.91% UK 1.80% Germany 1.34% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.21bps at 102.71bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.81bps at 123.12bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.24bps at 482.07bp Markit CDX IG -0.72bps at 90.41bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

Location: Germany

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.9 / Consensus: 5.9

Notes: The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 26/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -5.2% / Consensus: 2.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

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US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Location: United States

Date: 26/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.9% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-26 03:32:40 by FT Alphaville Cyprus banks to stay closed for days: "Cypriot banks will remain closed until Thursday, the government announced on Monday night, as President Nicos Anastasiades acknowledged that the country had come 'a breath away from economic collapse' before its last-minute bailout. Speaking after he agreed a €10bn international rescue that includes the restructuring of the island's two biggest lenders with losses for bigger depositors, Mr Anastasiades also said capital controls would be imposed but as a 'very temporary measure that will be gradually relaxed'." (Financial Times) Dell founder set to explore deal options: "Michael Dell has said he is willing to "explore in good faith" the possibility of working with Blackstone or Carl Icahn, after they each moved to top the $24.4bn buyout bid he made with Silver Lake Partners for the company he founded. Dell's special committee said it had not yet determined if either Blackstone's offer of at least $14.25 a share for the whole company or Mr Icahn's offer of $15 for 58 per cent of the company constituted a superior proposal to the one on the table." (Financial Times) IPO fundraising jumps 50 per cent: "A bumper start to the year in the global market for new equity issues has seen funds raised through initial public offerings jump by 50 per cent so far, marking a shift in investor sentiment after years of declining deal volumes and high profile failures. Some $23bn worth of fresh equity has been raised in IPOs this year, up from $15bn in the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic." (Financial Times) Boeing flight-tests Dreamliner batteries: "Boeing took a key step to returning its 787 to commercial service when it undertook on Monday the first flight of an aircraft fitted with new batteries adapted to minimise the risk of overheating. A Dreamliner took off at 12:11pm Pacific time from the airfield at Boeing's main production plant in Everett, Washington, for the 'functional test flight' and returned two hours later." (Financial Times) Berezovsky death 'consistent with hanging': "Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky, whose body was found in the locked bathroom of his luxury mansion near London over the weekend, died by hanging, British police said on Monday." (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOUS - Liberals find themselves in spending trap. (Gerald Seib) - For the first time since 1998, emerging market stocks are underperforming in a global rally. (Bloomberg) - Robots aren't the problem: it's us. (Richard Florida) - Private RMBS take first steps to US comeback. (Reuters) - A new online course on the Mexican economy. (Marginal Revolution) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -29.54 (-0.24%) at 12,517 Topix down -1.39 (-0.13%) at 1,046 Hang Seng down -130.77 (-0.59%) at 22,120 US markets S&P 500 down -5.20 (-0.33%) at 1,552 DJIA down -64.28 (-0.44%) at 14,448 Nasdaq down -9.70 (-0.30%) at 3,235 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -2.99 (-0.25%) at 1,186 FTSE100 down -14.38 (-0.22%) at 6,378 CAC 40 down -42.31 (-1.12%) at 3,728 Dax down -40.45 (-0.51%) at 7,871 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 94.32 (94.15) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.10 at 108.07 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.06 at 94.75 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,605 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 343.50 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.83% Germany 1.34% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.33bps at 101.5bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.33bps at 122.31bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.35bps at 480.83bp Markit CDX IG +0.55bps at 91.13bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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