DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 48.2 / Consensus: 47.5

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.2 / Consensus: 7.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

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UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.7% / Consensus: 2.8%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.3%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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UK Retail Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 3.3% / Consensus: 3.4%

Notes: Retail Price Index released by the National Statistics is a statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.4% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

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UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-19 05:47:37 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rebounded on Monday as fears abated that Cyprus could plunge Europe back into crisis, but investors remained wary. The Nikkei rose 1.9% after falling 2.7% yesterday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite index added 0.3%. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Cypriot authorities rushed to renegotiate the terms of a €10bn bailout by moving to scrap its controversial levy on small account holders and instead seizing more from larger depositors and businesses. The parliamentary vote on the rescue deal was postponed a second day running and is now scheduled to take place today. In an attempt to win over the handful of votes needed, President Nicos Anastasiades suggested lowering the rate on smaller depositors to 3%, while those with over €500,000 would lose 15% and those in between would get a 10% cut. A eurogroup statement said there would be "more progressivity" introduced to the original scheme. (Financial Times)(FT Alphaville)(Wall Street Journal) Japan's crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station suffered a power failure on Monday night, and some systems, including cooling mechanisms for several pools storing radioactive fuel rods, remained offline on Tuesday morning. The pools are cooled to well below safe temperature thresholds but if power is not restored, temperatures inside one pool could rise to levels deemed unsafe in a little over four days. (Financial Times) Citi to pay $730m in subprime class action deal: Settles claims the bank misled investors in its bonds and preferred stock between 2006 and 2008 over its exposure to subprime mortgages, in the second-biggest class action payout related to the financial crisis. (Financial Times) Blackstone considering Dell bid: "Blackstone Group is weighing a bid for Dell, the computer maker seeking offers to rival the proposed $24.4 billion buyout by its founder and Silver Lake Management, said people with knowledge of the matter." (Bloomberg) Brussels green light for Italy debt sale: "Italy is considering a substantial increase in sales of government debt to boost its recession-hit private sector after striking a deal with the European Commission that allows a relaxation of Rome's fiscal targets." (Financial Times) Argentina charges HSBC with money laundering: Argentina's government said it filed criminal charges against the local subsidiary of HSBC for allegedly helping businesses evade taxes and launder a total of 616m pesos ($121m). (Wall Street Journal) China's foreign direct investment rose for the first time in nine months in February, a sign confidence in the world's second-biggest economy is improving amid optimism growth will keep rebounding. Inbound FDI was 6.3% higher than in February 2012, the Ministry of Commerce said. (Bloomberg) COMMETN AND CURIOS: - Cyprus shows how Germany's position is hardening. (Financial Times) ECB role in bailout comes under scrutiny. (Financial Times) - Shale gas hasn't dramatically changed the game for US manufacturers. (Wall Street Journal) - Activist investors are back. (Wall Street Journal) - Richard Koo: Monetary easing alone won't fix Japan. (Financial Times) Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +230.11 (+1.88%) at 12,451 Topix up +16.95 (+1.65%) at 1,045 Hang Seng up +91.55 (+0.41%) at 22,175 US markets S&P 500 down -8.60 (-0.55%) at 1,552 DJIA down -62.05 (-0.43%) at 14,452 Nasdaq down -11.48 (-0.35%) at 3,238 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -3.27 (-0.27%) at 1,200 FTSE100 down -31.73 (-0.49%) at 6,458 CAC 40 down -18.56 (-0.48%) at 3,825 Dax down -32.15 (-0.40%) at 8,011 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 95.57 (95.17) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.11 at 109.40 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.05 at 93.79 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,605 Copper (Comex) up +0.50 at 342.20 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.97% UK 1.91% Germany 1.40% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.5bps at 100.92bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.45bps at 108.41bp Markit iTraxx Xover +9.22bps at 413.37bp Markit CDX IG +1.51bps at 80.25bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-18 05:19:18 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell and the euro weakened as investors fretted about an unprecedented levy was announced on all Cyprus bank deposits. The single currency fell fell 1.3% against the dollar and reached a three-week low against the yen. All major Asian benchmarks were lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific falling 1.6%, with the Hang Seng recording a 2.1% decline and the Nikkei falling 1.9%. The Kospi was 0.5% lower. The dollar lost 0.7% against the yen. Treasury yields fell as did JGBs, Australian and Singaporean government bond yields. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Cypriot authorities attempt to revise deposit levy deal: Cyprus' embattled president was on Sunday in talks with Brussels and political rivals to ease the terms of a planned levy on smaller deposit holders as he tried to scrape together a parliamentary majority for a €10bn bailout for the debt-laden island. President Nicos Anastasiades is still intending to raise €5.8bn from Cypriot bank accounts to help fund the bailout, but alternatives are being discussed to the deal struck on Friday, which would levy a 6.75% tax on all accounts under €100,000, and 6.75% on smaller deposits. Officials involved in Sunday night's talks said the levy on larger accounts could rise to as much as 12.5% and the smaller levy could fall to 3.5%. The country's 56-member parliament is scheduled to vote on the measure this afternoon, and success is far from assured. The government controls 28 of 56 seats. Anastasiades made a dramatic address to the nation calling for political backing of the €5.8bn levy and warning that the country faces a painful default without the €10bn tied to the levy. (Financial Times)(Reuters)(Wall Street Journal) Osborne to concede another debt target delay in Budget: "Having originally committed to bring the burden of public debt down by 2015-16 at the latest, the chancellor extended that target by a year in Decemberand is now preparing to concede another delay to 2017-18." (Financial Times) HSBC is gearing up to cut thousands more jobs. The bank is set to outline the next stage in its strategic overhaul at an investor day in two months' time. "There is no fantastical new strategy out there," said one person familiar with the bank's planning. "But there's still huge potential to be more efficient." (Financial Times) Insurers dodge bank-style capital surcharges: "The International Association of Insurance Supervisors will make its decision public when it unveils plans to deal with "systemically important insurers" on Wednesday, three people familiar with the plans told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) European parliament wants to restrict bonuses that exceed salaries for Ucits fund managers. "The parliament's draft negotiating position, seen by the Financial Times, would enforce a maximum 1:1 ratio of bonus to salary and requires up to 60 per cent of the variable element to be deferred and largely paid in units of the fund the manager runs." (Financial Times) Former PBoC chairman to be Chinese securities regulator: "Mr Xiao, who also worked at the central bank for 15 years, has had a lower profile than Mr Guo, raising questions about whether he will be as forceful in trying to bring change to China's markets." Meanwhile PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan will remain in his role despite reaching the retirement age of 65. (Financial Times) WSJ China bribery allegations: "The Justice Department last year opened an investigation into allegations that employees at The Wall Street Journal's China news bureau bribed Chinese officials for information for news articles. A search by the Journal's parent company found no evidence to support the claim, according to government and corporate officials familiar with the case." (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What happened in Brussels on Friday night... (Financial Times) - Analysts' reactions to the Cyprus deal: All over the place. (Wall Street Journal) - Editorial: Europe botches another rescue. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Munchau: Europe is risking a bank run. (Financial Times) - John Gapper: SAC case could discredit entire hedge fund industry. (Financial Times) - Chinese local government debt default figures spark worries. (Bloomberg) - UK banks rush to thicken capital cushions. (Wall Street Journal) - Analysts expecting Apple to raise dividend 50%. (Bloomberg) - JP Morgan, among others, is tinkering with its risk models. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -241.08 (-1.92%) at 12,320 Topix down -18.94 (-1.80%) at 1,033 Hang Seng down -478.11 (-2.12%) at 22,055 US markets S&P 500 down -2.53 (-0.16%) at 1,561 DJIA down -25.03 (-0.17%) at 14,514 Nasdaq down -9.86 (-0.30%) at 3,249 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.82 (-0.40%) at 1,203 FTSE100 down -39.76 (-0.61%) at 6,490 CAC 40 down -27.55 (-0.71%) at 3,844 Dax down -15.52 (-0.19%) at 8,043 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.30) $/¥ 94.73 (94.16) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.20 at 108.62 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.89 at 92.56 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +13.60 at 1,606 Copper (Comex) down -8.80 at 342.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.94% Germany 1.45% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.17bps at 98.42bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.96bps at 104.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.3bps at 404.15bp Markit CDX IG +0.49bps at 78.74bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-18 05:19:18 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell and the euro weakened as investors fretted about an unprecedented levy was announced on all Cyprus bank deposits. The single currency fell fell 1.3% against the dollar and reached a three-week low against the yen. All major Asian benchmarks were lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific falling 1.6%, with the Hang Seng recording a 2.1% decline and the Nikkei falling 1.9%. The Kospi was 0.5% lower. The dollar lost 0.7% against the yen. Treasury yields fell as did JGBs, Australian and Singaporean government bond yields. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Cypriot authorities attempt to revise deposit levy deal: Cyprus' embattled president was on Sunday in talks with Brussels and political rivals to ease the terms of a planned levy on smaller deposit holders as he tried to scrape together a parliamentary majority for a €10bn bailout for the debt-laden island. President Nicos Anastasiades is still intending to raise €5.8bn from Cypriot bank accounts to help fund the bailout, but alternatives are being discussed to the deal struck on Friday, which would levy a 6.75% tax on all accounts under €100,000, and 6.75% on smaller deposits. Officials involved in Sunday night's talks said the levy on larger accounts could rise to as much as 12.5% and the smaller levy could fall to 3.5%. The country's 56-member parliament is scheduled to vote on the measure this afternoon, and success is far from assured. The government controls 28 of 56 seats. Anastasiades made a dramatic address to the nation calling for political backing of the €5.8bn levy and warning that the country faces a painful default without the €10bn tied to the levy. (Financial Times)(Reuters)(Wall Street Journal) Osborne to concede another debt target delay in Budget: "Having originally committed to bring the burden of public debt down by 2015-16 at the latest, the chancellor extended that target by a year in Decemberand is now preparing to concede another delay to 2017-18." (Financial Times) HSBC is gearing up to cut thousands more jobs. The bank is set to outline the next stage in its strategic overhaul at an investor day in two months' time. "There is no fantastical new strategy out there," said one person familiar with the bank's planning. "But there's still huge potential to be more efficient." (Financial Times) Insurers dodge bank-style capital surcharges: "The International Association of Insurance Supervisors will make its decision public when it unveils plans to deal with "systemically important insurers" on Wednesday, three people familiar with the plans told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) European parliament wants to restrict bonuses that exceed salaries for Ucits fund managers. "The parliament's draft negotiating position, seen by the Financial Times, would enforce a maximum 1:1 ratio of bonus to salary and requires up to 60 per cent of the variable element to be deferred and largely paid in units of the fund the manager runs." (Financial Times) Former PBoC chairman to be Chinese securities regulator: "Mr Xiao, who also worked at the central bank for 15 years, has had a lower profile than Mr Guo, raising questions about whether he will be as forceful in trying to bring change to China's markets." Meanwhile PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan will remain in his role despite reaching the retirement age of 65. (Financial Times) WSJ China bribery allegations: "The Justice Department last year opened an investigation into allegations that employees at The Wall Street Journal's China news bureau bribed Chinese officials for information for news articles. A search by the Journal's parent company found no evidence to support the claim, according to government and corporate officials familiar with the case." (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What happened in Brussels on Friday night... (Financial Times) - Analysts' reactions to the Cyprus deal: All over the place. (Wall Street Journal) - Editorial: Europe botches another rescue. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Munchau: Europe is risking a bank run. (Financial Times) - John Gapper: SAC case could discredit entire hedge fund industry. (Financial Times) - Chinese local government debt default figures spark worries. (Bloomberg) - UK banks rush to thicken capital cushions. (Wall Street Journal) - Analysts expecting Apple to raise dividend 50%. (Bloomberg) - JP Morgan, among others, is tinkering with its risk models. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -241.08 (-1.92%) at 12,320 Topix down -18.94 (-1.80%) at 1,033 Hang Seng down -478.11 (-2.12%) at 22,055 US markets S&P 500 down -2.53 (-0.16%) at 1,561 DJIA down -25.03 (-0.17%) at 14,514 Nasdaq down -9.86 (-0.30%) at 3,249 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.82 (-0.40%) at 1,203 FTSE100 down -39.76 (-0.61%) at 6,490 CAC 40 down -27.55 (-0.71%) at 3,844 Dax down -15.52 (-0.19%) at 8,043 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.30) $/¥ 94.73 (94.16) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.20 at 108.62 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.89 at 92.56 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +13.60 at 1,606 Copper (Comex) down -8.80 at 342.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.94% Germany 1.45% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.17bps at 98.42bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.96bps at 104.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.3bps at 404.15bp Markit CDX IG +0.49bps at 78.74bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
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UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/03/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

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US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:55 - 14:55

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 77.6 / Consensus: 78.2

Notes: The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the Reuters/University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Industrial Production (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:15 - 14:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. If High industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the USD.

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US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $64.2B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

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