US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $64.2B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Core s.a

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 232.11

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.6% / Consensus: 1.9%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.9% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

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The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-15 05:14:24 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares rose after the approval of the new BoJ governors in Japan's upper house, and better than expected US jobless claim numbers. The yen weakened slightly to ¥96.01 to the dollar and the Nikkei rose 1.3%. The Hang Seng rose 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite jumped 1.7%. (Bloomberg)(Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan nominees approved: Japan's upper house of parliament waved through the appointments of Haruhiko Kuroda as governor, and Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso as his deputies, following approval by the lower house on Thursday. (Financial Times) King speaks out to halt sterling's fall: "In an abrupt change of tone, Sir Mervyn said sterling was now "properly valued", reflecting fears that the rapid fall in the pound this year will raise inflation and squeeze household budgets further." (Financial Times) Big day for JP Morgan: Senator John McCain, senior Republican on the bipartisan panel investigating the 'London whale' episode, said the bank "misled investors" before "lying to investigators" about its $6bn trading losses. At a hearing today, the panel will attempt to force JPMorgan into admitting the trades that soured were designed to increase profits, rather than to hedge various exposures. (Financial Times)(300+page Senate panel report)(Highlights at FT Alphaville) UK prop trading ban unnecessary, says commission: "The Banking Commission does not feel it appropriate to recommend the immediate prohibition of proprietary trading," said Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the PCBS. (Reuters) JP Morgan and Goldman got the go-ahead for payouts, but were ordered to improve their capital planning in the Fed's CCAR results. (Financial Times)(FT Alphaville) EU leaders to fight unemployment, kind of: European leaders pledged in Brussels to make the fight against unemployment a top priority, but did not clarify whether they would agree to soften the push for budget austerity, or what practical steps they intended to take to reduce joblessness. However the summit's statement made a reference to "balancing productive public investment needs with fiscal discipline objectives", which France and Italy viewed as a win for more leeway for public investment. (Wall Street Journal) EU strikes down harsh Spanish foreclosure law: "Campaigners in Spain hailed a rare legal victory over the country's banks and government when Europe's highest court struck down a draconian foreclosure law that had come to symbolise the brutal fallout from the eurozone's debt crisis." The decision will give courts new powers to delay or freeze evictions. (Financial Times) Shell has to provide more information before resuming Arctic drilling: Company "will need to provide more detailed plans before it can make another attempt to drill off the coast of Alaska, the US Department of the Interior said following a review of the company's troubled 2012 effort." (Wall Street Journal) The Troika delayed the disbursement of a Greek bailout tranche after a dispute over the sacking of senior civil servants. The troika mission will return to Greece in April. (Financial Times) Le Keqiang was today appointed China's premier, the first with a doctorate in economics. (Bloomberg) Carbon prices spike briefly on EU vote: Carbon prices shot up as much as 20% after a European Parliament vote that narrowly supported measures to help prop up the market. Prices for EU carbon allowances reached €4.23 before sinking back below €3.80 as as it became evident Thursday's vote did not guarantee the success of a more important vote due in April to 'backload' or delay the release of credits to tighten supply. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gillian Tett: Watch the maturity transformation in latest rush for junk. (Financial Times) - Retail investors pouring money into junk bond funds. (Financial Times) - Esoteric ABS getting ever more exotic in the search for yield. (Financial Times) - Germany's infrastructure deficit: spending less than US. (Wall Street Journal) - Germany's foreign minister on why the EU needs austerity. (Financial Times) - Toyota's Prius could be winner in China, not Buffett-backed local BYD. (Bloomberg) - UK Budget analysis: No plan B. (Financial Times) - BRICs locals get out of stocks and into government bonds. (Bloomberg) - Large US employers very upset about extra $63 per employee in new healthcare regime. (Wall Street Journal) - Financial advisers don't like Fidelity's new ETF fee structure. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +166.55 (+1.35%) at 12,548 Topix up +12.31 (+1.19%) at 1,050 Hang Seng up +170.96 (+0.76%) at 22,790 US markets S&P 500 up +8.71 (+0.56%) at 1,563 DJIA up +83.86 (+0.58%) at 14,539 Nasdaq up +13.81 (+0.43%) at 3,259 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +13.72 (+1.15%) at 1,208 FTSE100 up +47.91 (+0.74%) at 6,529 CAC 40 up +35.54 (+0.93%) at 3,872 Dax up +87.46 (+1.10%) at 8,058 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 96.17 (96.06) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.52 at 109.48 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.26 at 93.29 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,591 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 352.35 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.03% UK 1.99% Germany 1.48% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.64bps at 98.59bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.28bps at 104bp Markit iTraxx Xover -7.29bps at 402.85bp Markit CDX IG -0.76bps at 78.25bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-15 05:14:24 by Kate Mackenzie Asian shares rose after the approval of the new BoJ governors in Japan's upper house, and better than expected US jobless claim numbers. The yen weakened slightly to ¥96.01 to the dollar and the Nikkei rose 1.3%. The Hang Seng rose 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite jumped 1.7%. (Bloomberg)(Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan nominees approved: Japan's upper house of parliament waved through the appointments of Haruhiko Kuroda as governor, and Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso as his deputies, following approval by the lower house on Thursday. (Financial Times) King speaks out to halt sterling's fall: "In an abrupt change of tone, Sir Mervyn said sterling was now "properly valued", reflecting fears that the rapid fall in the pound this year will raise inflation and squeeze household budgets further." (Financial Times) Big day for JP Morgan: Senator John McCain, senior Republican on the bipartisan panel investigating the 'London whale' episode, said the bank "misled investors" before "lying to investigators" about its $6bn trading losses. At a hearing today, the panel will attempt to force JPMorgan into admitting the trades that soured were designed to increase profits, rather than to hedge various exposures. (Financial Times)(300+page Senate panel report)(Highlights at FT Alphaville) UK prop trading ban unnecessary, says commission: "The Banking Commission does not feel it appropriate to recommend the immediate prohibition of proprietary trading," said Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the PCBS. (Reuters) JP Morgan and Goldman got the go-ahead for payouts, but were ordered to improve their capital planning in the Fed's CCAR results. (Financial Times)(FT Alphaville) EU leaders to fight unemployment, kind of: European leaders pledged in Brussels to make the fight against unemployment a top priority, but did not clarify whether they would agree to soften the push for budget austerity, or what practical steps they intended to take to reduce joblessness. However the summit's statement made a reference to "balancing productive public investment needs with fiscal discipline objectives", which France and Italy viewed as a win for more leeway for public investment. (Wall Street Journal) EU strikes down harsh Spanish foreclosure law: "Campaigners in Spain hailed a rare legal victory over the country's banks and government when Europe's highest court struck down a draconian foreclosure law that had come to symbolise the brutal fallout from the eurozone's debt crisis." The decision will give courts new powers to delay or freeze evictions. (Financial Times) Shell has to provide more information before resuming Arctic drilling: Company "will need to provide more detailed plans before it can make another attempt to drill off the coast of Alaska, the US Department of the Interior said following a review of the company's troubled 2012 effort." (Wall Street Journal) The Troika delayed the disbursement of a Greek bailout tranche after a dispute over the sacking of senior civil servants. The troika mission will return to Greece in April. (Financial Times) Le Keqiang was today appointed China's premier, the first with a doctorate in economics. (Bloomberg) Carbon prices spike briefly on EU vote: Carbon prices shot up as much as 20% after a European Parliament vote that narrowly supported measures to help prop up the market. Prices for EU carbon allowances reached €4.23 before sinking back below €3.80 as as it became evident Thursday's vote did not guarantee the success of a more important vote due in April to 'backload' or delay the release of credits to tighten supply. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Gillian Tett: Watch the maturity transformation in latest rush for junk. (Financial Times) - Retail investors pouring money into junk bond funds. (Financial Times) - Esoteric ABS getting ever more exotic in the search for yield. (Financial Times) - Germany's infrastructure deficit: spending less than US. (Wall Street Journal) - Germany's foreign minister on why the EU needs austerity. (Financial Times) - Toyota's Prius could be winner in China, not Buffett-backed local BYD. (Bloomberg) - UK Budget analysis: No plan B. (Financial Times) - BRICs locals get out of stocks and into government bonds. (Bloomberg) - Large US employers very upset about extra $63 per employee in new healthcare regime. (Wall Street Journal) - Financial advisers don't like Fidelity's new ETF fee structure. (Wall Street Journal) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +166.55 (+1.35%) at 12,548 Topix up +12.31 (+1.19%) at 1,050 Hang Seng up +170.96 (+0.76%) at 22,790 US markets S&P 500 up +8.71 (+0.56%) at 1,563 DJIA up +83.86 (+0.58%) at 14,539 Nasdaq up +13.81 (+0.43%) at 3,259 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +13.72 (+1.15%) at 1,208 FTSE100 up +47.91 (+0.74%) at 6,529 CAC 40 up +35.54 (+0.93%) at 3,872 Dax up +87.46 (+1.10%) at 8,058 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 96.17 (96.06) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.52 at 109.48 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.26 at 93.29 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,591 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 352.35 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.03% UK 1.99% Germany 1.48% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.64bps at 98.59bp Markit iTraxx Europe -2.28bps at 104bp Markit iTraxx Xover -7.29bps at 402.85bp Markit CDX IG -0.76bps at 78.25bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

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EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.0% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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US Bank Stress Test Info

Location: United States

Date: 14/03/2013

Time: 21:30 - 22:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Bank Stress Test result released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System presents a result of a bank stress test for the largest U.S. banking organizations. The test is conducted to determine their reactions to different financial situations. The result would affect the stance of monetary policy, and assess the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. A high reading is seen as bullish (or postive) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish (or negative).

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Market News - Thursday 15th November 2012

The sell off continues with both the UK and US benchmark indices closing below their 200 day moving average as investors move away from riskier assets and place their investments in money market funds and bonds. The macro economic situation continues to be improving though, with good employment numbers from the UK yesterday and this morning both French and German GDP, which combined account for half of the EU economy, beat expectations at +0.2%. However, it is the political factors of the US ‘Fiscal Cliff’ and the Eurozone debt crisis that are dominant and will continue to be for the foreseeable future, and when markets and politics mix, uncertainty and volatility usually prevail.

Corporate News

• BP has confirmed it is "advanced discussions" with the DoJ and the SEC, and is expected to pay a record U.S. criminal penalty and plead guilty to criminal misconduct in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster -0.8%

• Centrica said it expects to deliver year on year earnings growth in 2012, in line with market expectations as its residential division saw an average 9%  rise in consumption per household but business demand was weaker as firms looked to cut costs -0.4%

• National Grid reported a 21% rise in H1 profit to £1.15B and estimated that the costs associated with hurricane Sandy would be £100M -1.4%

• Antofagasta reported earnings up 13% for the first 9 months of the year -0.3%

• Amlin reported its sales rose 11% in the first 10 months of 2012 and was "well placed" to absorb claims from Hurricane Sandy, but did not provide an estimate of how much it will have to pay out. +0.4%

• Rexam said that the group's overall performance is broadly in line with expectations and beverage cans volumes are up 6% in Q3 -1.6%

• Britvic raised to Buy at Societe Generale UNCH

• Balfour Beatty raised To Buy From Add At Numis +1.1%

• AG Barr Raised To Overweight From Equalweight At Barclays -0.6%

Economic Data Releases

• 0930 United Kingdom-Retail sales (Oct)

• 1000 Euro zone Q3 GDP

• 1330 United States-CPI and real earnings

• 1500 United States-Philly Fed New - Philly Fed business indx

Market News - Wednesday 14th November 2012

Yesterday was a rollercoaster ride for the FTSE 100, bouncing back in the afternoon from a 2 month low in the morning on hopes that Spain may finally request a bailout and some strong buying on Wall Street. However, after Europe had closed the bears returned in the States and the Dow closed down 59 points as concerns over Washington’s ability to form a  political consensus before the enforced tax rises and spending cuts of the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ simmered back to the surface. This morning sees the release of the UK unemployment rate which is expected to remain at 7.9%, which although is high and the same as the USA, when compared to Spain 25%, Portugal 16% and Italy at 11% puts the problems in Southern Europe into perspective.

Corporate News

• Sainsbury’s beat forecasts with a 5.4% rise in H1 profits, helped by the development of its online and convenience stores business. It also raised its H1 dividend 6.7% to 4.8p -1.2%

• Amec said that it was on track to deliver double-digit underlying revenue growth for the full year with an order book of £3.6B up 0.3B from 2011 +1.8%

• Tullow Oil reported that it was on track to meet its annual production targets and that its Jubilee field production capacity has been enhanced and is expected to exceed 90,000 bopd -0.7%

• Carphone Warehouse posted a 1.6% rise in underlying sales at its core European unit and Group pre tax profit is up 30% to 8.6m +4.7%

• ICAP reported a 25% drop in H1 profits as trading volumes fell significantly across nearly all asset classes as Investment banks cut back their trading activity -7.7%

• Fidessa Raised To Buy From Hold at Jefferies +2.8%

• Tui Travel Raised To Overweight From Neutral at JP Morgan UNCH

• Weir Group Raised To Neutral From Reduce at Nomura +1.3%

Economic Data Releases

• 0930 United Kingdom-Unemployment (Sep)

• 1330 United States-Retail Sales

• 1500 United States-Business inventories

Market News - Tuesday 13th November 2012

 

After a flat day on the markets yesterday the declines have continued this morning as miners and Vodafone drag the FTSE 100 lower with falling commodity prices and poor corporate earnings respectively. The meeting between the IMF and EU to discuss Greece's next tranche of bailout money ended without a decision apart from to delay for another week, further adding to uncertainty in the market.

 

Corporate News

• Vodafone has written down the value of its Spanish and Italian businesses by £5.9B and announced it has reduced its full year outlook as it reported a fall in its organic service revenue -3.1%
 
• ITV reported a 4% rise in total revenue to £1.57B and flat net advertising revenues which has outperformed the wider market. Its cost saving plans of £30M in 2012 is also ahead of target. +5.4%
 
• Capita said it was on track for 3% organic growth in 2012 and had acquired 14 companies so far this year. It is also confident the outsourcing market in the UK will remain buoyant and anticipates further strong progress in 2013 +0.2%
 
• Afren reported a Q3 profit of £411M and was on track for its 2012 production guidance -1.65%
 
• Synergy Health reported a 10.5% rises in H1 revenue which is slightly ahead of the boards expectations -0.9%
 
• De La Rue issued a profits warning after a few key orders were pushed back beyond the reporting period -6.6%
 
• Aveva cut to Sell From Neutral at UBS -0.4%

Economic Data Releases

• 0930 UK CPI and RPI
 
• 1000 GER ZEW Survey