The big news of the day has to be the -0.5% contraction in GDP the UK suffered during Q4, according to preliminary estimates. Undoubtedly a lot of this is due to the bad weather conditions experienced but it does raise the question of just how well the UK economy can withstand the austerity measures being put in place as well as the recent hike in VAT. Whichever way you look at it a contraction of -0.5% is very bad indeed and certainly demonstrates just how fragile the UK economy is and how susceptible it is to any negative shock. The ONS estimated impact of the bad weather is -0.5% which suggests that in more normal conditions the UK would have registered no growth during Q4 anyway. Whilst a degree of catch up can be expected during Q1, which should result in a positive number, the data today will provide policy makers with a lot to worry about.


In the US today the main economic announcement was the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for January which rose to 60.6 from the previous reported level of 52.5. A lot of this will be due to the rise in the stock market and the perceived improvement in the jobs market. The increase is certainly welcome news although it must be borne in mind that confidence even now remains at very depressed levels.

Also in the US, the FOMC start their two day policy meeting today although we expect little change in their statement due out tomorrow evening.

The Purchasing Managers Index data for the Euro zone today has confirmed a solid start to the year with the PMI for services up to 55.2 from the December level of 54.2 whilst manufacturing did register a modest decline to 56.9 from the December level of 57.1, but remains well into growth territory. The composite index rose to 56.3 from 55.5. The equivalent numbers for Germany were strong suggesting that we are seeing the continuation of a strong trend within the core and a weak showing among the peripheral countries which will report next week.


There is no other major data that has been published today in Europe or the US. The main event of the week will be on Friday with the first estimate for US Q4 GDP which the consensus is expecting to provide a reading of around +3.5% annualised. Growth looks almost certain to be above 3% with an outside chance of 4%+.

In the UK tomorrow the first estimate for Q4 GDP will be published and it is expected to show a +0.5% quarter on quarter growth rate compared to the last reported reading of +0.7% for Q3. The economic headwinds continue to build and expectations are that growth over the coming quarters is likely to remain at around the current run rate with the risks skewed to the downside. Tomorrow also bring news of the UK public borrowing for December.

In the US tomorrow the two day FOMC meeting starts and the announcement on Wednesday is not expected to be materially different to the previous meeting result. The US interest rate is unlikely to change this year although expectations have started to shift with raised concerns over the inflation outlook. The main event in the US tomorrow will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for January. After the dip in December to 52.5 the consensus is expecting a modest increase to 54.3. With unemployment showing some signs of improvement and a US stock market closing in on levels not seen since mid 2008 we should see some improvement in consumer sentiment.

Wednesday in the US brings new home sales data for December with the consensus expecting an improvement to 300K annualised from the previous reported level of 290k. After the better than expected existing home sales data last week we may well see an improved performance from new home sales although activity remains at very depressed levels.

In the UK on Wednesday the minutes from the latest Bank of England MPC meeting are due for publication. The market will be looking for comments concerning inflation and any indication that perhaps the currently divided opinion is starting to move closer to a rate rise. We have seen one broker projection this morning expecting the first +0.25% hike in the UK base rate in November of this year. In an interview on Friday, Adam Posen who is a member of the MPC stated that he expected UK inflation will fall well below the 2% target after a temporary surge, suggesting that it could be some time yet before a rate rise is on the agenda.

On Thursday the January CPI for Germany is due for publication as well as European Consumer Confidence. After a better than expected weekly initial jobless claims in the US last week of 404,000 the consensus is expecting a similar number when it is published on Thursday of this week. Also on Thursday US Durable Goods Orders for December are due out and are expected to show a +1.5% month on month improvement, although the headline number could well come out higher than this due to large non defence aircraft orders.

On Friday there is no major UK or European data due for publication and in the US we get Q4 GDP and the latest reading for University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index which is expected to show a modest improvement on the last reported level of 72.7.

A brief note today given that there is no economic data scheduled for publication in the US and the only data worthy of note here is UK retail sales for December which declined by -0.8% against consensus expectations of a +0.1% gain. The recent retail trading reports had already flagged up the extent of the disruption caused by the bad weather and we may well see a degree of catch up during January.


In the US yesterday existing home sales were above expectations at 5.28m on an annualised basis for December against expectations of 4.9m. The jump from the previous reported level of 4.68m is encouraging but it must be borne in mid that activity is still bumping along close to levels not seen for over 10 years. It will be a long time yet before sales activity increases to a more meaningful level that could signal a real recovery.

Also in the US, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for January was broadly as expected at 19.3 compared to the consensus of +20.0. The constituent parts of this index did show some encouraging signs with a healthy jump in new orders and employment. Overall the regional reports continue to show the US manufacturing sector achieving respectable growth. It will be interesting to see the first estimate for Q4 US GDP which is due for publication on Friday of next week.

Worries over an overheating Chinese economy have once again brought fears that their central bank will have to implement further hikes in the Chinese interest rate. Chinese 2010 Q4 GDP came in at an annualised rate of +9.8% compared to Q3 of +9.6%. Consensus expectations were for a drop in the growth rate to +9.4%. Another increase in their interest rate looks to be almost a certainty given the high rate of growth and more importantly their inflation rate. The Chinese CPI for December was +4.6% year on year although this was a drop from the previous reported level of +5.1%. Most analysts expect the next rate rise of 0.25% in February.


US economic news yesterday was confined to December housing starts which fell to 529k from the November level of 555k. The US housing market faces many months of depressed activity and without a meaningful upturn it is difficult to see consumer confidence returning to pre crisis levels. The US economic calendar today provides further news of what is happening with the property market in the form of existing home sales for December which are expected to increase to 4.9m on an annualised basis from the previous reported level of 4.68m.

The US weekly jobless claims continues to provide a volatile picture making any assessment of current trends in unemployment very difficult to quantify. The reading last week was 445,000 and this week the consensus is looking for a drop to 420,000. The manufacturing data announced for New York State earlier in the week was still comfortably into growth territory and this afternoon we get the equivalent January data for Philadelphia. Expectations are for a slight drop to 20 from the previous reported level of 24.3, but again still well into growth territory.

There is no real news due out of Europe today but we did get UK unemployment data yesterday with the broader ILO measure showing an increase of 49,000 unemployed in the 3 months to November, bringing the total unemployment rate up to 7.9% from 7.7%. A combination of high unemployment and declining house prices is likely to weigh on UK consumer confidence over the coming months.

The market sell off which started yesterday afternoon is more a function of the strong rally during recent weeks rather than any significant shift in sentiment and a bout of profit taking was to be expected at some point. The news about China this morning has certainly provided a further reason for profit taking but a catalyst for a more significant correction remains absent at least for the time being. The European debt crisis seems to have lost some of the impact it did have last year, which is probably given the level of perceived political will to correct any problem, but it remains to be seen how the market will react to another bail out. The real worries are unlikely to come until mid year when the US quantitative easing program comes to an end and fears over whether the US economy is able to survive without government intervention will then be very high on the agenda.

The UK Consumer Price Index has again surprised on the upside today with the annualised rate moving up to +3.7% in December compared to the previous reported number of +3.3% and consensus expectations of +3.4%. The main driver is higher fuel, energy and food prices and with a vat hike this month the pressure will continue in the short term. A 4% inflation rate looks highly likely at present. The debate over when the first hike in the interest rate will come will rumble on with at least one+0.25% increase looking likely before the end of the year.


In Europe today the ZEW Economic Sentiment indices for Germany and Europe have been published, both of which exceeded expectations suggesting that conditions within the core remain in positive growth territory.

In the US the Empire State Manufacturing index increased to +11.92 for January from the previous reported level of +10.6, although it was a little lower than consensus expectations of +14.0.

With the earnings reporting season now getting underway in the US and with optimism still riding on a high the US market has reached levels not seen since mid 2008. Inflation expectations have jumped sharply but with the interest rate in the US unlikely to move this year equities look set to attract liquidity seeking yield. Fears of a double dip recession have all but disappeared and the market at least for the time being looks set to creep higher. There remain significant hurdles this year including the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe plus the end of quantitative easing in the US in June. The debate over raising the US debt ceiling has already begun and with the current ceiling of $14trn expected to be reached during the coming weeks there is still no sign of how and when the US will actually start to reduce its budget deficit.

Inflation expectations are currently shifting with higher commodity, food and energy prices starting to spook the market over what to now expect from monetary policy in the UK and Europe. Both Central Banks met last week to decide on interest rate policy and in Europe the ECB made more hawkish comments about inflation which has started to shift expectations that the first rate rise may come sooner rather than later in Europe and certainly before the end of 2011. The European headline CPI reported last week increased to +2.2% year on year in January from the last reported level of +1.9%. The same situation in the UK is occurring and with a vat hike to contend with as well as the other major inflationary forces at present the CPI looks set to rise further over the short term. The December UK CPI is due for publication tomorrow with the consensus expecting no change in the last reported year on year rate of +3.3%. The debate now is about how much the MPC will raise rates in the UK this year with expectations now closer to a 0.5% hike compared to 0.25% only a few weeks ago. The question is whether the Bank of England can hold its nerve especially if the headline CPI starts to edge closer to 4% which would be double the targeted rate.


In Europe today all eyes will be on the gathering of European finance ministers to discuss the ongoing issues in Europe and undoubtedly this will include debate on whether to extend the size of the European rescue fund. Any firm decisions are unlikely for several weeks and possibly months but some expansion of the facility seems likely to help alleviate fears over a country such as Spain requiring a rescue.

Last week in the US the Beige book was published and this is a valuable aid in giving an up to date picture of what is happening with the US economy. This report which covered the period of November to the 3rd January stated a “moderate or modest” improvement in economic activity for 10 of the 12 regional Fed districts. The report was not dissimilar to the previous one although the overall tone suggests a modestly improving outlook.

The US unemployment outlook is far from clear. After making a decisive move below 400,000 during the holiday period the weekly initial jobless claims in the US once again spiked up, this time to 445,000, which was against consensus expectations of 420,000. The data is subject to the impact of seasonal variation and therefore the latest spike should not necessarily be taken as a sign of further deterioration but if we see a continuation of the trend this week it will be disappointing. Expectations for the number this week are for a drop to 420,000 (due out Thursday).

Also in the US last week we had retail sales data for December which fell a little short of expectations at +0.6% month on month compared to expectations of +0.8%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index also came in light of expectations and fell to 72.7 from the last reported number of 74.5. Inflation in the US remained almost non existent with the core rate for December at just +0.1% month on month. Finally, Industrial Production for December surprised on the upside at +0.8% month on month compared to consensus expectations of +0.5%.

Today the US market is closed for Martin Luther King Day. The economic data starts tomorrow with the Empire State Manufacturing Index for January. This data set which provides a snapshot of manufacturing activity in New York State has been prone to volatility more recently but expectations for this month are for a modest increase to +14.0 from the previous reported level of +10.6. For the UK and Europe the calendar is quiet today with just the Rightmove house price index for January. This has already been published showing a +0.3% increase although this is after a -3.0% decline during December.

A relatively quiet day in terms of economic announcements today. In the UK we have had the Halifax house price index for December which fell -1.3% month on month after a -0.2% drop in November. Against an economic backdrop of spending cuts and fiscal tightening there is a good possibility that house prices will fall during 2011. Low interest rates and reduced supply are likely to prevent a significant decline, but the real risk is if the Bank of England’s MPC change their inflation outlook and start to raise interest rates. Whilst a remote possibility in 2011, the risks of this will increase next year if an economic recovery is starting to take hold and inflation is remaining stubbornly high.


The press are continuing to come up with articles over the disappointing US Non Farm Payroll data published last Friday. The reality is that the numbers were broadly in line with recent data and the disappointment is more down to the fact that the market raised its forecasts after the strong ADP private payroll numbers earlier last week. The fact that the recent US economic data has continued to show a respectable growth rate during Q4 2010 has also raised expectations over employment growth. Either the ADP number is very inaccurate or more likely we will start to see an improvement in the Non Farm Payroll data over the coming months. It remains to be seen whether growth in employment will be sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate but it may well stabilise. The reported decline in the unemployment rate on Friday can be ignored due to the large number of people who gave up looking for work and who are more than likely to return to the labour force, which will simply reverse the decline. Ideally Non Farm Payrolls need a consistent run rate of around +250,000 to make any real difference.

The Euro zone debt crisis is starting to wake up again with various reports about Portugal doing the rounds. We are likely to see a similar story with Greece and Ireland when their respective governments denied they needed help until the market eventually forced their hand. The debt crisis is here to stay at least until the second half of 2011 when we may by then have more clarity on what is to be done with the remaining problem countries such as Portugal and Spain.

The main economic data event in the US this week will be the publication of December retail sales with the consensus expecting a +0.8% month on month gain with an increase in gasoline prices likely to play a big part in the rise. The core retail sales number which strips out the impact of gasoline sales and auto sales is likely to show a more modest rise of closer to +0.3%. The snow storms in the North East are also likely to have held back sales in the tail end of December.

Other US data this week of importance is related to inflation with the December Producer Price Index due out on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index on Friday. The next instalment of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is also due for publication on Friday, and the first January reading is expected to show a modest improvement to 75.0 from the last December reading of 74.5. The Fed’s Beige book is due out on Wednesday and that provides anecdotal evidence of economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts.

In Europe we get euro zone November industrial production on Wednesday. Also on Wednesday the UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence index is due for publication. With consumer confidence already taking a hit with concerns over cuts during the coming months it will be interesting to see if sentiment is still deteriorating. On Thursday UK industrial and manufacturing production is due for publication and the MPC meets to decide on interest rate policy. There is no chance at present of any hike in the interest rate, but the meeting minutes when they are published will be scrutinised for any signs that the committee is starting to become more concerned about the inflation outlook. The ECB meets on the same day and again we can expect no change in policy at this stage. Friday in the UK brings more inflation data in the form of the Producer Price Index for December and in Europe we get the consumer price index for December.

After the exceptional Santa rally world markets have continued to run ahead during the first days of the New Year. The primary reason at present for the optimism is the US economy which continues to show good signs of recovery. The question of how much of this is down to the huge amount of stimulus being pumped into the economy will only be answered when we get closer to the end of QE2 in mid 2011 when the economy will have to stand alone. That is not to say we might still have QE3 but that looks less likely at present.


In the US within the last few days we have had both sets of December ISM data for manufacturing and non manufacturing which came in a little ahead of expectations and well within growth territory. The surprise of the week so far was the December ADP Private Payroll number which was announced yesterday and came in at a very significant +297,000, far higher than the expected number of around +100,000. The ADP number has been a poor predictor of what to expect from the Non Farm Payroll number during recent months but nevertheless with a number of this size the market will be looking for a healthy Non Farm Payroll number tomorrow when it is published. The consensus is looking for a headline number of around +140,000 and is expecting +150,000 from the private payroll element. The headline number is likely to be held back by declines in the public sector workforce.

Other surprises in the US this week were factory orders for November which rose by +0.7% month on month compared to expectations of no change. On the employment front the weekly initial jobless claims that were published last week fell to 388,000, the lowest level seen since early 2008. The number for this week has just been published and that came in at 409,000. The overall trend is most certainly down and if we do start to see claims consistently at the sub 400,000 level we may well start to see the US unemployment rate start to decline.

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting published earlier this week suggest that the Fed is still unconvinced about the recovery but clearly views the recent new fiscal stimulus packages and QE2 as a good support to growth during 2011. It does beg the question of whether the recovery is simply government led and lacks the foundation for sustainable growth, but that will not become clear for many months to come.

Europe and the UK have been relatively quiet on the economic front and the sovereign debt crisis has been sleeping over the holiday period but no doubt will awaken at some point during the coming weeks. It was interesting to see that the UK December Purchasing Managers Index for Services published today fell below 50 at 49.7 from the last reported reading of 53.0. The consensus was looking for a number of around 53 this time and a number that indicates contraction is certainly a cause for concern, but we would have to see the number remain below 50 over the coming months before taking it as a real indication of slowdown. The equivalent numbers published for Germany and Europe yesterday remain well into growth territory.

The oil price is starting to become a concern and whether we are going to see $100 plus this year remains to be seen but even at current levels it will sap spending power from consumers. In particular the US will be vulnerable as the drag on spending could well negate the additional stimulus measures announced towards the end of last year.

The economic news emanating from the US towards the tail end of last week was enough to keep market sentiment firmly in positive territory. The latest regional manufacturing index was published on Thursday for Philadelphia and that came in ahead of expectations at 24.3 after the previous monthly reading of 22.5 and consensus expectations of a dip to 16.0. The equivalent index for New York State was also firmly in positive territory when it was published earlier last week and all of the regional reports so far indicate that the US manufacturing sector has recovered from the soft spot earlier in the year and the momentum is still being maintained.


The US initial weekly jobless claims data is also indicating that the trend in unemployment is still showing signs of improvement. The latest number of 420,000 was bang in line with consensus expectations and follows on from the 421,000 last week. Not so long ago this number was drifting around the 500,000 mark, but realistically for the unemployment rate to fall in the US this number has to be south of 400,000.

With the holiday period almost upon us the market has already moved into its usual end of year subdued mode and we are unlikely to see much volatility over the next couple of weeks, and there is every possibility it will tick higher on low volumes if history is anything to go by. We do have a few data announcements this week. The main event in the US will be on Wednesday with the final estimate for Q3 GDP due for publication. The last estimate was +2.5% annualised and the market is looking for this number to be revised up to around +3%. The run rate for Q4 according to most forecasters is closer to +3.5% at present giving the US a better end to the year. Estimates for 2011 currently sit around the +3% mark.

Existing home sales data for November is due for publication in the US and is expected to show some improvement on the October level. Estimates are for 4.7m annualised compared to the last reported level of 4.4m. One key element of the US economic recovery will be an improvement in the US housing market which is some way off but we are least seeing some improvement on the very depressed levels of activity.

Thursday in the US brings durable goods orders for November with the consensus expecting a modest drop of -1.0% which is likely to be due to weak transportation orders. The initial weekly jobless claims are expected to remain static at 420,000 when they are published on Thursday. To round the week off the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for December is due for announcement and is expected to show a modest improvement to 75 from the previous reported level in December of 74.0. The rise in the equity market is likely to play a big part in the improved sentiment.

In Europe today we have had the German Producer Price Index for November which rose +0.2% month on month which was a little lower than expectations. UK mortgage approvals announced today for November declined to 45k from the October level of 47k. There is no doubt that we are seeing weakness in the UK housing market and a decline in UK house prices during 2011 looks likely.

The CBI has published their forecast for 2011 UK growth this morning which they now estimate will be 2% followed by 2.4% in 2012. The main headline grabber from this announcement was their forecast for UK interest rates which they expect to start rising from the spring of next year and to reach 2.75% by Q4 2012. This is based on their estimate for UK inflation being significantly above the Bank of England’s 2% target during 2011. In our view it would be surprising to see the Bank of England raise rates so early next year given the fiscal tightening that 2011 will bring combined with the government job cuts. The MPC forecasts already allow for inflation to stay well above their target rate next year and it would take a significant spike in inflation to change interest rate policy so soon.

The only notable announcements due out tomorrow in Europe and the UK are the GfK Consumer Confidence surveys but neither will be market moving events. Wednesday brings the minutes of the latest Bank of England MPC meeting with a three way split expected again. The final estimate for Q3 UK GDP is also due out on Wednesday and is expected to be unrevised at +0.8% quarter on quarter.

With little in the way of market moving announcements due out over the next two weeks the Daily Comments will be issued if there is a notable event. Otherwise normal service will resume on the 4th January.

The market rally continues despite the rumbling in the background of the European debt crisis and in particular concerns over Spain. This story will gain more ground in the New Year with Spain facing the prospect of raising up to 170bn Euros next year from the markets according to Moody’s. In addition Spanish banks have around 90bn Euros of debt to refinance next year. With Moody’s threatening the prospect of a Spanish debt downgrade after placing their debt rating under review this story has some way to go. An EU summit today to discuss how future problems will be addressed from 2013 onwards is likely to keep the sovereign debt crisis firmly in the headlines for the rest of this week.


In the UK yesterday the unemployment data provided signs that the recent improvement in the unemployment trend may well be reversing and this is before the significant cuts come in the public sector workforce next year. According to the ONS unemployment in the 3 months to October increased by 35,000 to 2.5 million. The majority of the increase was due to cuts in the public sector work force which appears to have already begun. On a more positive note the claimant count measure of unemployment did fall during November but only by 1,200 following on from a 5,200 fall during October.

This morning in Europe we have had the December Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing and services. The former increased to 56.8 from the previous reported level of 55.3 but the service index declined to 53.7 from 55.4. This was in part due to a slowdown in Germany where the PMI Service index fell to 58.3 from the previous reported level of 59.2. Overall most of the recent data points to a slowdown in GDP momentum within Europe which is not unexpected given the weakness among the peripheral countries, especially as the austerity measures start to bite. The coming 12 months will be another of sub trend growth.

UK retail sales for November published this morning were weaker than expected at +0.3% month on month compared to expectations of +0.5% and the upwardly revised October figure of +0.7%. December may well enjoy better than expected sales as consumers bring forward purchases in advance of the VAT hike in January.

In the US yesterday most of the data was either in line or a little better than expectations. The Empire State Manufacturing index which gives a gauge of manufacturing activity within New York State rose back into positive territory at +10.6 for December after the -11.1 reported for November. If anything this does demonstrate that the regional reports can be quite variable and you cannot read too much into one bad month. Industrial Production for November increased by +0.4% month on month during November which was bang in line with estimates. Inflation for November was a little less than expected with a +0.1% month on month increase in the Consumer Price Index leaving the year on year rate at +1.1%. If you strip out the impact of food and energy the year on year rate stands at just +0.7% leaving little in the way of inflationary pressures within the US economy at present.

Today in the US housing starts for November are due for publication. The consensus is looking for an increase to 550,000 on an annualised basis from the last reported level of 519,000. Given the poor state of the US housing market expectations are set firmly in negative territory and so a poor number is unlikely to upset the market at this time.

The weekly initial jobless claims provide the most up to date evidence of what is happening with the US labour market. The last reading came in at 421,000 and the consensus is looking for a similar number this week. Finally today we have the next regional manufacturing report, this time for Philadelphia. The November reading jumped to +22.5 from the October number of +1.0 and for December the consensus is looking for a number of around +16.0.

World equity markets have started the week firmly in positive mode. This is partially due to relief that the People’s Bank of China chose not to raise their interest rate over the weekend to follow on from the announced increased in the banks reserve requirement. With inflation getting ever stronger in China a tighter monetary policy seems inevitable with some commentators suggesting that a failure to act now will require significantly higher interest rates in the future.


In the US analysts are pleased that Congress is likely to pass a more favourable tax package before the yearend giving the US economy yet another injection of additional stimulus measures. The extension of the Bush tax cuts combined with a 2% payroll tax holiday in 2011 and a 3 month extension of the Federal unemployment benefits should provide a useful boost to household income during 2011. However, It must be borne in mind that the fact that the economy needs these measures in the first place when we are the best part of two years into the recovery phase suggests that the underlying picture remains very difficult indeed. However, for the time being anyway the market will accept any new measures that at least help to maintain the momentum even if growth is likely to remain at sub trend levels for the foreseeable future. The size of the US budget deficit rarely gets mentioned with the focus still very much on stimulus measures to keep growth going and these latest announcement could add a further $200bn to the deficit according to some estimates. At some point the US budget deficit will need to be addressed as we have seen across Europe and this may well be something that the market becomes concerned with as we move through 2011.

On Friday in the US the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 74.2 from the previous reported level of 71.6. The consensus was expecting a modest improvement to 72.0. The fact that sentiment has improved is welcome news although this probably a good deal to do with the rally in equity markets during recent weeks. This index during more normalised economic recovery conditions would be registering around the 90 level and at present it is still at a level more consistent with recession.

In the UK today the latest Rightmove House Price Index has been published and this fell -3.0% month on month following on from the previous monthly decline of -3.2%. These are significant falls and it remains to be seen whether this is a broadly based picture of what is happening in the UK housing market. The latest Halifax house price index fell by a more modest -0.1% month on month. The overall picture varies according to each data series but they do have one thing in common and that is that UK house prices at present are falling.

In the US today there is no major economic news and we look to tomorrow for the first major announcement of the week. The Producer Price Index for November is due for announcement tomorrow. Expectations are for a 0.7% month on month increase with input prices boosted by an increase in gasoline and food prices. Retail sales for November are also due out tomorrow and expectations are for a +0.7% month on month increase.

Another quiet day of trading ahead with little in the way of economic news to drive the market either way. The only economic news that could move the market this afternoon is the next reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for December. The final November index reading came in at 71.6 and the consensus is looking for a modest improvement to 72.0. Given the latest poor unemployment data which can have a big bearing on the sentiment indices, this number could go either way this afternoon.


In the UK today the main economic news is the Producer Price Index for November which rose by +0.3% month on month. This is basically a measure of inflation for UK manufactured goods and the annual inflation rate fell modestly to +3.9% from +4.0% with the decline due to a slight fall in the rate of petroleum price inflation. This particular measure of inflation is expected to remain at this elevated level for some time to come due to higher input costs. Given that this will feed through to final inflation we can expect the CPI to remain at elevated levels for many months to come.

In Europe, German wholesale price data for November has been published today and this rose by a strong +0.7% month on month leaving the annual rate a shade higher at +7.8%. This to a large extent reflects the recent increase in food and metal prices.

The People’s Bank of China has increased its reserve requirement once again to keep inflationary pressure under control after the most recent data for lending was above estimates. More measures will almost certainly be needed over the coming months to fight inflation and another hike in their interest rate is likely to come early next year.

The economic calendar is very quiet this week and there is not much for markets to chew on. After the dismal employment report in the US on Friday we would have expected a negative market reaction but in fact the response was quite muted. Whether it is a case of a poor report reinforces views of more stimulus measures in the future is hard to say. What is clear at present is that the market is focusing more on policy measures that are happening or might happen than the actual data. Ben Bernanke mentioned over the weekend that QE3 was not out of the question if it is needed. Today we have news that Obama has agreed to an extension of the tax cuts from the Bush era and it now seems likely that the emergency jobless benefits paid to 2 million people in the US will also be extended. There is certainly good reason to be very cautious with this market at present. As we move into the final weeks of the year there is every chance that it will rally a little further as volumes drop off but the start of 2011 could well test investor nerves with a very rocky path ahead.


In the UK today we get the NIESR estimate for November GDP whilst the Halifax publishes their November house price index.UK Industrial and manufacturing data for October is also due for publication and both are expected to show a +0.3% month on month increase. In Europe the only data of note that is due for publication is German factory orders for October.

In the US the only data due for publication is consumer credit for October.

The market at present is living off rescue announcements in one shape or form. The decision by the ECB to prolong their liquidity programme to support the region’s banks helped the rally in world markets yesterday. In addition the ECB has been aggressively buying peripheral euro zone debt for most of the week which has for the time being calmed investor nerves. Today we have just had the Non Farm Payroll data in the US for November and just when sentiment had turned firmly to the positive side for this data, the result has been disappointment with the headline number showing a gain of just 39,000. Within this the private payroll number was up just +50,000 compared to expectations of something closer to 150,000. The only positive was that the prior month headline number has been revised upwards to +172,000 from the previously reported level of 151,000. The rate of unemployment also unexpectedly increased to 9.8% from 9.6%. It was interesting to see that the retail sector actually shed 28,000 jobs in November at a time when they would be expected to be recruiting ahead of the holiday season. The public sector lost 11,000 jobs during November. The jobs market in the US is still far from out of the woods and we did see deterioration in the weekly initial jobless claims numbers yesterday which crept back up to 436,000 from the previous week’s reported number of 407,000 and consensus expectations of 425,000.


This afternoon the other major data set due for publication in the US is the ISM Non Manufacturing index for November. The consensus is looking for 55.0 which would be a slight improvement on the October number of 54.3. At the same time as the ISM number we get factory orders for October which is expected to show a decline month on month of -0.8% after a 2.1% increase last month.

In Europe today we have had the November Purchasing Managers Index for services for the Euro zone, Germany and the UK. The UK was the only one to show a decline over the month albeit a modest one to 53.0 from the previous reported level of 53.2. The UK service sector continues to grow but at a very modest rate. Retail sales for the Euro zone increased by +0.5% month on month during October which was slightly higher than expectations of a +0.4% increase and this follows on from a -0.1% decline during the previous month.

If the ISM data this afternoon meets expectations it may help to negate the impact of the poor unemployment data we have just had. If it doesn’t meet expectations it may well set us up for a few days of difficult trading as next week is relatively light in terms of economic announcements.

The data in the US yesterday was again a little better than expectations and provided grounds for some enthusiasm in world equity markets after the falls of recent days. The situation in Europe rumbles on but comments from Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday were taken as a sign that further action may be taken to prevent further contagion within the Euro zone. The ECB meets today to discuss interest rate policy and all eyes will be on the accompanying statement for details of any further measures that may be used in the coming weeks such as the delayed withdrawal of unlimited liquidity support for the region’s banks and increased bond purchases. However, there is room for disappointment this afternoon if no new measures are announced especially given that market expectations of the need for further action are starting to build.


The US ADP Private Payroll report yesterday was encouraging with a rise of 93,000 in private payroll employment after an upwardly revised 82,000 increase in October. This does suggest that we can look forward to a good Non Farm Payroll report tomorrow with expectations of the headline number showing an increase of around 170,000 with private payrolls expected to show a gain of around +150,000.

The important US ISM Manufacturing Index for November declined modestly to 56.6 from the previous reported level of 56.9. Within this the constituent indices did show weakness in some areas such as new orders which fell to 56.6 from the previous reported level of 58.9 whilst the employment index fell to 57.5 from 57.7. Overall though the data suggests that the US manufacturing sector is maintaining the momentum. Other data published in the US yesterday included construction spending for October which rose +0.7% month on month.

The US Beige book which was published yesterday and this gives anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. The data which was compiled on or before the 19th November resulted in 10 districts reporting some form of growth whilst the other 2 reported mixed conditions. Within the 10 reporting growth 5 are experiencing a stronger pace of economic activity. Manufacturing activity continued to expand in all Districts and expectations for consumer spending during the holiday season are reasonably optimistic after several Districts reported that current sales are higher when compared to the same period last year. Overall a report that suggests that whilst there has been no deterioration the recovery is not gaining any real momentum.

In the US today the main data due for announcement are the weekly initial jobless claims data. After the better than expected reading last week of 407,000 the consensus is expecting an increase to 425,000. A reading below 400,000 would be taken very positively.

In the UK yesterday the Nationwide house price index for November declined by -0.3% month on month. If UK house prices continue to slip back this will have an inevitable impact on consumer sentiment and will be another factor that weights on consumer spending next year. The UK November Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing was also published yesterday and that showed a useful increase to 58.0 from the previous reported level of 55.4. The overall new orders index increased to 59.1 from 54.0 which certainly indicates that domestic demand has increased which bodes well for a good quarterly gain in manufacturing output.

October retail sales for Germany were better than expected at +2.3% month on month compared to expectations of a +1.25 increase although the previous month’s figure did decline by -1.8%. The German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for November was also published yesterday and this showed a healthy increase to 58.1 from the previous reported level of 56.6. Overall Germany remains one of the few bright spots in Europe.