With the market showing no clear direction at the moment we are sitting on the sidelines having closed our BAT and Vodafone positions earlier in the week. BAT has been a good trading stock over the last couple of weeks, but we noticed a slight change in the strength of the share price when we came to sell the last holding at a lower price than the previous trade exit price and for that reason combined with a market that looked as if it was unlikely to race ahead we have stayed away from what would have been a fourth trade in the same stock in two weeks. So far it has been the right decision as the shares are trading below £16.50. What we are looking for at the moment is another -1% daily decline in the market to bring a couple of stocks within range. The stock that at the moment looks interesting is Unilever, it has good relative strength and with a strong fundamental case we believe there should be a good trading opportunity or two if the markets weakens from current levels.

We have traded BAT again successfully today. After buying in at £16.69 yesterday we took a quick profit this morning when the shares hit £16.90. The timing was good as the shares have sold off this afternoon. It is difficult to tell where this market is going at the moment so we may well sit back and see how things develop over the next couple of days.

The Week Ahead

The last week certainly provided more fuel for the bulls especially with better than expected data in the US. As always world markets take their lead from the US and at the moment at least the momentum seems to be being maintained with what appears to be at a stabilisation in economic conditions.

In the US we had a heavy week of economic data with pending home sales starting the week off with a much better than expected 6.7% month on month increase during April compared to consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase. Home buyers are being attracted by substantially improved affordability and tax credits which should help to keep the momentum going. It does seem that we are moving closer to a point of recovery in the US housing market which will be a prerequisite of any consumer led US economic recovery.

Both sets of Institute for Supply Management data announced last week in the US showed an improvement on the previous month. The Manufacturing index improved to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in April. Looking at the breakdown of this index, the new orders element provided the best news with a move to 51.2 from 47.2 which is the first time this figure has been above 50 since late 2007 and does therefore suggest that the sector is at least starting to pick up. At the very least this provides further evidence that the worst stage of the recession is over, but the main index remains some way off the key 50 level which would indicate expansion. The Non Manufacturing ISM Index increased to 44 in May from the April level of 43.7. It was interesting to see that the new orders element of this index actually declined to 44 from 47.
Growth when it does come will be very slow and very modest and this was confirmed by the congressional testimony given by Ben Bernanke last week when he acknowledged that the recession is easing with growth expected to resume later this year and stated “it will only gradually gain momentum”. He also said that growth will remain below its longer run potential for a while. What he means by “a while” is difficult to say, but it is not inconceivable that we are talking about a period that could easily exceed one year and potentially a lot longer. It is this fact that could eventually cause a serious market correction if it does become clear that growth is going to be at modest at best for a prolonged period of time and not the strong V shaped recovery that a lot of commentators still expect.

Unemployment was also a high light of the week in the US. The ADP Private payroll figure showed further significant job losses during May of -532000 jobs lost across the manufacturing and service sector which was a little worse than the consensus expectation. This led commentators to expect another bad non-farm payroll figure on Friday, but instead the market was surprised with a better than expected decline of -345,000 jobs lost during May (April -504,000) compared to the consensus expectation of -520,000. The unemployment rate reached a very significant 9.4% and looks set to comfortably exceed 10% by the end of the year. The encouraging part of the non-farm payroll data was that the improvement was down to private payrolls which declined by -338,000 compared to a fall of -596,000 in April whilst government payrolls declined by just 7,000 and this time there was no positive contribution which we saw last month due to the hiring of temporary government workers for the 2010 census. This actually reduced the overall decline in the unemployment number by 92,000 during April. It remains to be seem if the Non Farm Payrolls will continue to improve, but now that we have at least seen a significant drop in the rate of decline next month will be a very important figure as the market is unlikely to react well to any significant deterioration from the May number.
Last week also brought interest rate decisions in Europe and the UK. As expected in both cases interest rates were kept on hold with the UK at 0.5% and Europe at 1%. The ECB made it clear that 1% is likely to be the low and we can expect no more cuts unless there is a further marked deterioration in the economic outlook.

The coming week contains less in the way of market moving data. Monday is relatively quiet with just German factory orders for April due. Tuesday brings the UK RICS house price survey which we expect to still show that house prices in the UK are falling. Also on Tuesday we get Industrial Production figures for Germany which is expected to show a decline of 0.5% during April and it now seems likely that we are close to a bottom after such a dire first quarter. On Wednesday we get the publication of the Beige book in the US which does normally get some interest. The Beige book gives an overview of recent economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts and we would expect to see an improvement in conditions among at least some of the districts. Wednesday is a very busy day for economic data in Europe and the UK with Industrial and Manufacturing Production data for April in France, UK, and Italy together with May CPI data for Germany and Spain. The main data to be published on Thursday are US retail sales for May with a month on month improvement of +0.6% anticipated by the market. We also get US business inventory data for April which will be in focus. With inventory draw down being a key feature of the first quarter the market is anticipating a reversal of this trend as manufacturers begin to replace stock, which should provide a boost to GDP during the second half. To finish the week on Friday we get the June US University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index and April Industrial Production data for the EuroZone.

BAT provided us with another trade today which makes it three in a row with this one. Sometimes stocks can become very range bound and if the market is behaving in a way that seems to help keep it there it does provide good trading opportunities. We are only taking 1.5-2% out of each trade, but it does all add up.

The US ADP employment figures yesterday were not particularly good and this does suggest that the non farm payrolls tomorrow have the potential to cause an upset. Most are anticipating a decline of around 520,000 and anything close to -600,000 is likely to have a negative impact on the market.

Another good trade in BAT today having opened positions at £16.77 yesterday we have benefited from the defensive stocks being in favour this morning and closed out positions at £17.07.

A difficult day for the FTSE100 despite a strong end to trading in the US yesterday. A number of factors have impacted on trading today with Barclays share price depressed by the sale of the Abu Dhabi investors stake. The unemployment data for the EU made grim reading reaching a 10 year high of 9.2% However, overall the economic data this week has so far been reasonably positive. The ISM Manufacturing Index improved last month to 42.8 from 40.1 in the previous month, a level that is still some way off the critical 50 level which would indicate expansion, but an improvement nevertheless. The pending home sales data in the US today was also above expectations and it seems that we are moving closer to a point at which the US housing market will start to stabilise.

It will be interesting to see now if the market does surge higher with investors now becoming concerned that a pull-back is looking unlikely and therefore start to put more cash into stocks. It is usually at this point that a pull-back does happen and certainly if nothing else we would expect a period in which markets range trade with 4200-4500 still looking like a sensible range. However, markets generally overshoot and a further move up during the summer could well be on the cards.

I have been reading an interesting article today about the state of the UK consumer which unlike their US counterparts are still borrowing to fund consumption rather than use funds to rebuild their own balance sheets and reduce debt as has been happening in the US. This does suggest that eventually the consumer will have to wake up to their debt especially when taxes start to rise and other factors start to reduce disposable income such as a reversal of the interest rate cuts. The end result could well mean that consumer expenditure during 2010/11 could well fall sharply.

Week Ahead

The last week provided further evidence that the rate of decline in the US economy seems to have reduced. Tuesday provided the big boost to the market with the publication of US consumer confidence numbers which were way ahead of expectations although we suspect a good deal of the strength in this index was due to the strong bounce in stock markets. We are always cautious of the confidence numbers which are notoriously volatile although the latest figures do suggest that the worst may well be over. The Durable Goods orders in the US showed an improvement of 1.9% during April although yet again the previous month was subject to a big revision with a -0.8% decline in March being revised down to -2.1%. More concerning is the fact that when you look at the individual constituents of this data, capital spending from companies continues to decline with orders for non defence goods down 2% in April. Data for home sales in the US was broadly in line with expectations although the levels of unsold inventory are still too high to make a housing market recovery a prospect in the short term. Finally, the second estimate for US Q1 GDP was revised upwards a little to -5.7% from the initial estimate of -6.1%.
In the UK the Nationwide House Price Index showed an improvement during the month of May although it remains to be seen whether this is simply a short term blip.

This week provides the heaviest week of the month for economic data and as always all eyes are on the US. On Monday we get the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index for May. During April it recovered to 40.1 from 36.3. What the market will not be happy with is a reversal of the recent trend and if it does slip much from the level seen last month we can expect a negative impact on Monday afternoon trading. The consensus is expecting a continuation of the recent trend with expectations of a figure of around 42.0.

On Wednesday in the US we get the Non Manufacturing ISM data. In April this index rose 3 points to 43.7 and the consensus is expecting a further improvement for May to 45.0. Again we are at a critical stage where a significant move backwards will not be taken well by the market. Also look out on Wednesday for the ADP employment report in the US. This is often viewed as a forward indicator of where the Non Farm Payrolls are heading (due to be published Friday). The ADP report is likely to show between -400,000 and -500,000 job losses in the private sector over the last month. A figure closer to -300,000 would probably be taken well by the market as a further sign of at least an improvement in the rate of deterioration in the job market. The figure for factory orders during April will also be in focus on Wednesday with the consensus expecting a modest improvement of 1.1%. Given the improvement in durable goods orders announced for the last month it seems likely that the consensus has this number about right.
On Thursday the usual weekly jobless claims number will get some attention and that leads us into Friday when we have the big number of the week, the Non Farm Payroll figures. Given the improving trend in the jobless numbers (-699,000 March and -539,000 for April) the market will be looking and hoping for a better number again. At this stage a decline of 450,000 to 500,000 looks possible, but a bigger number is likely to have a negative impact on the market. With the ongoing disaster in the US Auto industry it seems quite plausible that the unemployment numbers will start to deteriorate again over the coming months. Finally, Ben Bernanke is speaking on Thursday at a Fed Conference in Washington and it is always worth looking out for what is said as his comments can move the market.

In the UK we have the Halifax house price index to be published this week for May. This index has not proven itself to be a particularly good indicator and does not hold much strength with analysts. On Tuesday in Europe we get Euro-Zone unemployment data. The second estimate for Euro-Zone GDP data for the first quarter is due to be announced on Wednesday and is not expected to be revised from the initial estimate of -2.5%. Also on Wednesday we get Euro-Zone Producer Price Index figures for April which is always of interest in seeing whether inflationary pressures are building in the system. Consensus is expecting a month on month decline of -0.7%. On Thursday we get Euro-Zone retail sales figures for April with the consensus expecting a modest improvement of 0.2%.

We get the Bank of England MPC interest rate decision on Thursday along with European Central Bank Interest rate decision. Both are expected to leave interest rates on hold with the UK at 0.5% and Europe currently standing at 1%.

Finally, on Friday keep a look out for the UK Producer Price Index data for May. Analysts will focus on this data which does give a useful insight into inflationary trends within the manufacturing sector. The consensus is expecting a modest month on month improvement of 0.4%.

The Durables Goods orders data in the US today was better than expectations with a modest 1.9% improvement on the previous month, but again the data for the previous month was revised down.

Today we were presented with two trading opportunities, one in Unilever and one in British American Tobacco. With the sell off this morning it took both down to attractive levels, and the latter won the day as our chosen trade because of its more defensive characteristics. The market is starting to feel as if a sustained sell off could occur and we are going to continue to focus on trading some of the more defensive areas where the downside looks to be more limited in the event of a major correction. Our BATS were purchased at £16.77 and we sold out at £17.07 although there was a little more to be had with the shares peaking at £17.16.

The existing home sales data in the US today was broadly in line with expectations so little around today to move the market. The consumer confidence data yesterday was above expectations, but as always I think the market gets somewhat over excited at this type of data. A lot of the boost in confidence is attributable to the very significant improvement in equity markets. Everywhere else it is hard to find a reason for the recovery in this index with unemployent still increasing at a hefty rate and consumers still wilting under extreme levels of debt. Whether the recovery in confidence is sustainable is another matter. Tomorrow we have the Durable Goods orders data for April which always has the capacity to move the market. With the consensus expecting little or no change over the month what we don't want to see is a another negative figure of -1% or worse and as always there is a good chance that significant revisions will be made to the previous two months.

We managed to miss a trade in Unilever yesterday although it would have been difficult to predict the impact the consumer confidence data had on the market during the afternoon. With the stock having fallen back to £14.60 before the afternoon recovery it was well within our target range and the conditions were right for a swing trade, but a little bit too much caution prevented action and we missed it. It is still very much on our target list and we will be watching the market closely tomorrow afternoon for weakness from the US if the Durable Goods orders disappoint and this may again present another opportunity. The stock does look like it will resemble the trading pattern we saw towards the end of last year between £14.50 and £15.50 which should yield some good trades over the coming weeks.

The Week Ahead

The last week was the first time in several weeks when it felt as if we were close to the start of a market correction. The announcement from Standard and Poor that it has lowered its medium term outlook on the triple A rating on the UK’s debt to “negative” from “stable” took the market by surprise although on paper it is easy to see why. The risk of government debt becoming 100% of national income looks very real indeed and a downgrade in the future certainly looks to be a realistic prospect given the poor state of our public finances. The minutes of the FOMC meeting this week did little to help sentiment when they admitted that there is a strong possibility that any recovery when it comes may not be sustainable. This certainly put markets on the back foot on Thursday wilth falls of around 3% in all major markets. We are clearly far from a position of a sustainable recovery in world stock markets and with many high profile commentators last week suggesting that things could get worse before they get better there is a real risk that sentiment may turn very negative during the summer months and as we have been saying for some time now a pull-back still looks highly probable.

The key events of last week were the publication of the MPC meeting minutes which suggested that the Bank of England is more than willing to utilise additional quantitative easing if necessary. The suggestion was made that an additional £75bn should be used rather than the £50bn that was finally agreed and it seems likely that further QE is in the pipeline. The Committee stated that risks of stimulating demand too little far outweigh those of stimulating it too much. There is still huge uncertainty as to when a sustainable recovery will begin.
In the US the Conference Board’s Index of economic indicators rose by 1% month on month in April which was the first gain in 10 months. Undoubtedly this was in part due to an improvement in consumer expectations especially with stock prices moving ahead strongly over the month. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose to -22.9 in May from -24.4 in April still far below the point of expansion in this sector. With the fallout from the auto industry continuing to feed through over the coming months this index could easily deteriorate again.
In the UK, the CPI fell to 2.3% year on year in April versus 2.9% in March whilst the RPI rate fell deeper into negative territory at -1.2%. German consumer confidence rose to a 3 year high which suggests that we can expect some form of improvement in economic conditions as the year progresses.

With a short trading week we have only a few major economic announcements. Tuesday starts with further news of where UK house prices are headed with the publication of the Nationwide House Price Index for May which is very likely to show a further month on month decline. The debate rages as to where house prices are heading. With the average price still close to 6x the average wage there is still some way to go before they move back towards a longer trend of between 3 and 4 times average income. On Tuesday we also get the latest German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey which is likely to be in focus given the significant decline in German GDP during the first quarter. On the same day we get a second estimate for German Q1 GDP which is expected to remain unchanged from the first estimate of -3.8%. Also on Tuesday we get Euro-Zone Industrial Orders data for March which is expected to show another decline although most commentators believe that we are close to the bottom . In the US on Tuesday we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence data for May which is likely to show a further improvement on the April estimate of 39.2 to around 43 according to the consensus. We also get the equivalent ABC data on the same day.

On Wednesday the major data of the days comes with the US Existing Home sales for April. The markets is fixated with the state of the US housing market which is viewed as the key to any sustainable consumer driven recovery. However, the poor data for Housing Starts last week suggests that we are some way from a sustainable recovery in the US housing market. The April data for existing home sales is expected to show an improvement to an annualised rate of 4.67m from the March level of 4.57m. A decline from the March level will almost certainly unsettle the market.

On Thursday the focus is again on the US with the publication of the Durable Goods orders for April. The consensus is anticipating no change, but given more recent manufacturing data it seems likely that we will again face a negative figure. Also look out for revisions to previous monthly figures which can be quite significant. The weekly initial jobless claims which are announced every Thursday are getting more attention than usual as commentators look for signs that the Non Farm Payroll figures will show signs of improvement. More recent data suggests that the big increases in unemployment are likely to continue but should be closer to the 450-500k mark rather than 600,000+ which we saw earlier in the year. There is a risk however that with so many jobs now being lost in the auto sector that the monthly payroll losses could again be back above 600,000.

Also on Thursday in the US we get new home sales data which is expected to show a modest improvement on the March annualised rate of 356,000. Again a decline on the previous month would be viewed negatively by the market. Finally on Thursday we get Euro-Zone consumer confidence and German unemployment data.

The focus on Friday will be the second estimate of US Q1 GDP data. The first estimate was a worse than expected -6.1% quarter on quarter. Most commentators are expecting a revision to around -5.5%. Any downward revision would be taken badly by the market. Finally in the US to round off the week we get the University of Michigan Consumer confidence data for May. In Europe on Friday look out for the Euro-Zone CPI data for May which is expected to bring the year on year rate down to just 0.2%. We also get Euro-Zone unemployment for April with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 9.1% from 8.9%.

A difficult week for the market with a lot of negative comment making traders uneasy and unwilling to push the market higher. It feels as if we are at a point where it is right for the market to consolidate and that may well mean a move back towards the 4000 level.

For us trading has been light this week having closed out or long position of Unilever and we took a long position in Vodafone after the results. Our timing was not fantastic with the big market sell-off yesterday and the shares are around 4% down on our purchase price. Vodafone is an interesting story with certain brokers seeming to take the view that the company should still be viewed as a growth stock and their recommendations are very much focused from this viewpoint and ultimately they take a more negative stance. For us and a lot of other brokers it is clear that Vodafone is almost ex growth, but with such strong free cash flow they are in the perfect position to pay down debt over time and increase the dividend which is already above average. With a commanding global foot print they are also well placed to tack on smaller acquisitions. The market at the moment is focused on the group's mature European markets which have suffered during the global slowdown. Once the dust has settled we believe the shares will start to recover and at some stage will pop back over the £1.20 level.

The market has been spooked by the FOMC meeting minutes yesterday and negative comments made by some high profile commentators. Sentiment can change very rapidly and it is not impossible that the market may slide further over the coming days. There are certainly good reasons why this should happen and very few as to why the market should make further progress from here. From a trading perspective it is at these times when a good deal of caution is necessary and it usually pays to wait for the market to settle down before entering into new trades.

In the US today the leading indicators were a little better than forecast whilst the initial jobless claims were a little worse. It still seems likely that the Non Farm Payrolls are on course to lose another 500,000+ jobs this month, a figure hardly consistent with an economy that is showing signs of recovery, although unemployment is historically considered a laggard and will keep rising for sometime even after recovery has begun. Nevertheless with so many job losses from the auto industry coming it seems likely that this number will if anything deteriorate further over the coming months.

This morning we closed out our long positions in Unilever which were opened on Friday at £14.98 and closed at £15.27. Not a big profit, but a profit nevertheless.

I have copied below our normal Monday briefing:-

This week the market has been showing signs of finding a top and it will be interesting to see whether a sustained move can be made through the 4400 level or whether as is more likely we start to creep back to 4200 or lower. It is hard to see how the market can really make much more headway.

Last week we had confirmation of the bad state Europe is in with GDP falling 2.5% during the first quarter. At the same time we had data for Germany which fell by a significant 3.8% whilst France declined by 1.2% which was a little better than what most economists were expecting . The outlook remains difficult, but these readings are likely to be the worst during this recession.
In the UK the BRC retail sales figures on the face of it were strong with like for like sales up 4.6% during April. However, most of this was due to the timing of Easter which in 2008 fell in March. We believe that consumer spending will come under increasing pressure as the year wears on. The equivalent data for the US last week was quite poor with retail sales down during April by 0.4% with the figure for the previous month revised down to a drop of 1.3%.

Data for UK Industrial Production for March showed a decline of 0.6% which was a little better than what economists were expecting whilst data for Manufacturing for the same period showed a decline of -0.1% again better than the 1% decline which the consensus had pencilled in. The major news of the week in the UK was the publication of the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation report which demonstrated just how bad things have got with even Mervyn King now suggesting he cannot predict when a sustainable recovery may start. In addition their forecast for UK GDP growth during 2009 moved towards the bottom end of the consensus range with a very significant decline of -4.5% expected this year. This compares to the Chancellor’s rather optimistic forecast of a -3.5% fall in GDP.

The inflation data in the US was broadly as expected with the CPI showing no month on month change which brought the 12 month running rate down to 0.7%. Finally in the US, the Empire State Manufacturing index which measures the rate of expansion/contraction in manufacturing in New York state recovered from a figure of -14.7 to -4.6 which brings the index very close to a point at which the sector is expanding.

Next week is very quiet with little in the way of significant data to look forward to. Firstly looking at the US we get Housing Start data for April on Tuesday which is expected to show a modest improvement on the previous month bringing the annual rate up 2% to 520,000. The key element of any housing market recovery will be a reduction in the level of unsold inventory which still sits at a level consistent with falling prices. On Wednesday we get the minutes of the FOMC meeting which is unlikely to produce anything surprising. On Thursday the Leading Indicators for the US economy (a guide to future economic trends) are expected to show a modest improvement to +1% during April from -0.3% over the previous month. The Leading Indicators rarely have much market impact although a strong figure would certainly receive some attention. Also on Thursday we get the Philadelphia Fed Survey which provides an overview of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district and this may well show an improvement over the previous month’s figure of -24.0. The equivalent figure for New York published last week showed good improvement, but still fell short of a positive figure that would indicate expansion.

In Europe on Monday we get the Euro-Zone trade balance. On Tuesday in the UK we get CPI data for April which is anticipated to show a month on month rate of 0.2% which would bring the annual rate down to 2.4% a figure that would still be above the Bank of England targeted rate of 2.0%. The rate is however expected to continue falling over the coming months. The RPI is expected to fall further into negative territory from the year on year rate of-0.4% reported last month to a figure of around -1.0%. The German ZEW economic sentiment survey due to be published on Tuesday for May will receive a good deal of focus given the awful Q1 GDP data published for Germany last week. This survey is expected to show some improvement on the previous month with most commentators now taking the view that Q1 will be the low point of this recession. On Wednesday we get preliminary data for Q1 Japan GDP data which could show a decline of more than 4%. Also on Wednesday the minutes of the latest MPC meeting are published and these will inevitably show a 9-0 vote in favour of keeping rates at the current targeted level of 0.5%. On Thursday in the UK we get more retail sales data for April with a month on month improvement of 0.5% expected. On Friday we get a second reading for UK Q1 GDP which is expected to remain unchanged at -1.9% quarter on quarter although there is a possibility in our view that this figure may well be revised upwards.

This week we will be focusing on the full year figures from Vodafone and interim figures from Marks and Spencer which are both due on Tuesday. We will be updating our National Grid and BT notes this week.

Very little going on today. The US retail sales figures yesterday have clearly set the market thinking about the possibility of a longer wait for recovery. Tomorrow should bring more volatility with some big economic data including the first estimates for Euro Q1 GDP and the US CPI and consumer sentiment. I can't help but think the market is going to find it hard to move back above 4400 and I think we could easily see a move back towards 4000 over the coming weeks. We are in no rush to put on new trades and there are several stocks close to our target entry prices.

The drop in retail sales last month in the US with a downward revison to the month before just goes to show that we are far from out of the woods yet and without a healthy consumer the US economy will struggle to go anywhere. Much the same can be said of the UK and Mervyn King in the Bank of England quarterly inflation report has been very clear that they do not know just what impact the ongoing stimulus packages are going to have and when recovery will come and in what form. Their downward revison to forecast GDP growth this year of -4.5% is significant. I think that maybe the market may now be about to have a reality check and we could see more selling after the drop in world markets today.