DE Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4% / Consensus: 0.0%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

#END

DE Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.5% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistiches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes i

#END

DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.0%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

#END

DE Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.6% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: HICP is an index of consumer prices calculated and published by Destatis, the Statistical Office of the European Union, on the basis of a statistical methodology that has been harmonised across all EU member states. HICP is a measure of prices used by Governing Council of EU to define and assess price stability in the euro area as a whole in quantitative terms.

#END

DE Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.8% / Consensus: 0.6%

Notes: The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

#END

DE Retail Sales (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.4% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth usually anticipates "Bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

#END

UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 28/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -22 / Consensus: -21

Notes: The GfK Group Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Normally, a high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US FOMC Member Powell Speech

Location: United States

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 15:30 - 16:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Jerome H. Powell took office as FOMC member on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2014. His comments may affect dollar, an therefore trigger a short term movement positive or negative trend.

#END

US Personal Income (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

#END

US Personal Spending

Location: United States

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.2%

Notes: Personal spending, released by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, measures purchases of goods and services by households and by nonprofit institutions that serve households from private business.

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

UK Current Account

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -�14.037B / Consensus: -�11.800B

Notes: The Current Account released by the National Statistics is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of the UK. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the UK exceeds the capital reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.6% / Consensus: 0.6%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Total Business Investment (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The Total Business Investment released by the National Statistics presents the total amount of capital expenditures made by private firms. A large business investment is indicative of overall growth and demand in the UK economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

DE Unemployment Rate s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 6.9% / Consensus: 6.9%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office shows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Normally, a decrease of the figure is bullish for the EUR, while an increase is bearish.

#END

DE Unemployment Change

Location: Germany

Date: 27/06/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 21K / Consensus: 8K

Notes: The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which encourages economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3% / Consensus: 1.3%

Notes: The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US Gross Domestic Product Annualized

Location: United States

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 2.4%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

#END

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1% / Consensus: 1%

Notes: Personal Consumption Expenditures, released by US Department of Commerce, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures consist of the actual and imputed expenditures of households; the measure includes data pertaining to durables, non-durables and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted toward individuals and consumed by individuals.

#END

US Gross Domestic Product Price Index

Location: United States

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.0% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

UK Financial Stability Report

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The Financial Stability Report, published twice a year by the Bank of England under the guidance of the interim Financial Policy Committee, shows the Committee's assessment of the outlook for the stability and resilience of the financial sector at the time of preparation of the Report, and the policy actions it advises to reduce and mitigate risks to stability. Usually, if the BoE is hawkish about the financial outlook, it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the UK economy and is concern about the financial stability it is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

UK Inflation Report Hearings

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies, including the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority.

#END

DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

Location: Germany

Date: 26/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 6.5 / Consensus: 6.5

Notes: The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-06-26 05:41:10 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose, gold slumped and the dollar strengthened after better-than-expected US durable goods data. The Nikkei was flat but the Hang Seng rose 1% and the MSCI Asia Pacific was up 0.4%. However the Shanghai Composite continued to fall, sliding 1.2%. (Bloomberg) Chinese interbank lending rates dropped after the PBoC made clear it would provide liquidity support where needed, and said it had already provided such support. The one-year interest-rate swap, the fixed cost needed to receive the floating seven-day repo rate, slid 16bps to 3.91% by late morning in Shanghai, according to Bloomberg calculations. The overnight and seven-day repo rates fell 40bps and 78bps respectively. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) "Italy risks potential losses of billions of euros on derivatives contracts it restructured at the height of the eurozone crisis, according to a confidential report by the Rome Treasury that sheds more light on the financial tactics that enabled the debt-laden country to enter the euro in 1999." (Financial Times) Bond yields could undermine recovery in global banks' balance sheets: Under new capital rules, unrealised losses in these "available for sale" portfolios hit banks' equity capital. "I would think most institutions are going to have a fairly sizeable hit to their equity," said a senior executive of a top US bank. (Financial Times) King criticises 'meddling' banks in final public BoE appearance: "Sir Mervyn complained that bankers left meetings with the new Prudential Regulation Authority about increasing their capital stocks and immediately called the prime minister and chancellor to put "tremendous pressure" on politicians to water down the rules." He said that in at least one case, calls were then made to the PRA about the banks' concerns." (Financial Times) Dublin worries that Anglo Irish tapes will harm its attempts to win debt relief from the EU. "It makes it more difficult, of course it does, but we're going to continue to work to get the best possible outcome for the Irish taxpayer," said Eamon Gilmore, Ireland's deputy prime minister on Tuesday. (Financial Times) US oil and natural gas operations are increasingly vulnerable to cyber attacks that can harm competitiveness and lead to costly outages at pipelines, refineries or drilling platforms, a new Council on Foreign Relations report says. (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Careless talk may cost the economy. (Financial Times) - Ralph Atkins: Draghi must act so the eurozone is not a major casualty of US tapering. (Financial Times) - Analysis: Young and educated with a dead-beat job in Europe. (Reuters) - Peter Orszag: Young and educated with a dead-beat job in the US. (Bloomberg) - Analysis: Young and educated with a dead-beat job in Japan. (Bloomberg) - Shadow banking is carrying on unscathed in Wenzhou. (Bloomberg) - Peer-to-peer lending delivers higher returns than equity investing in the same companies. (Financial Times) - US is number one foreign investment destination for the first time in 12 years. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -0.21 (0.00%) at 12,969 Topix down -2.26 (-0.21%) at 1,076 Hang Seng up +202.08 (+1.02%) at 20,058 US markets S&P 500 up +14.94 (+0.95%) at 1,588 DJIA up +100.75 (+0.69%) at 14,760 Nasdaq up +27.13 (+0.82%) at 3,348 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +16.18 (+1.45%) at 1,130 FTSE100 up +72.81 (+1.21%) at 6,102 CAC 40 up +54.19 (+1.51%) at 3,650 Dax up +118.85 (+1.55%) at 7,811 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.78 (97.80) £/$ 1.54 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.47 at 100.79 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.73 at 94.59 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -23.30 at 1,252 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.07 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.60% UK 2.55% Germany 1.80% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.03bps at 97.83bp Markit iTraxx Europe -4.06bps at 128.16bp Markit iTraxx Xover -16.74bps at 511.79bp Markit CDX IG -5.49bps at 92.1bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Housing Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 25/06/2013

Time: 14:00 - 15:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The Housing Price Index released by the Office of Federal Reserve Housing Enterprise Oversightprovides an estimated value of housing market conditions. It is an important indicator as the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 25/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 3.3% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

#END

US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Location: United States

Date: 25/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.3% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

#END

UK BBA Mortgage Approvals

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 32.2K / Consensus: 33.1K

Notes: The Mortgage Approvals published by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) measure the number of home loans issued by the BBA during the previous quarter. It is considered as a leading indicator of the UK Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall UK economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish)

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-06-25 05:45:28 by Kate Mackenzie Chinese stocks sank to a four-year low, pulling most other Asian markets lower as worries grew about the country's tight liquidity. The Nikkei was off 1.7% and the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 1.2% and copper reached a three-year low. (Reuters)(Bloomberg) China's seven-day repo rate rose 68 basis points today to 8%, and the overnight rate fell 47bps to 6%, according to a fixing by the National Interbank Funding Center. (Bloomberg) Fed's Fisher fights 'feral hogs': Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher told the FT the Fed had anticipated a lively market reaction to last week's comments on QE tapering. But Fisher, an FOMC voting member, warned that markets should not think the Fed would end up propping up the economy indefinitely. " I do believe that big money does organise itself somewhat like feral hogs. If they detect a weakness or a bad scent, they'll go after it." (Financial Times) Parts of UK and US risk becoming 'uninsurable' as oceans warm: Global insurance industry trade body the Geneva Association issued a rare warning that the speed at which the oceans are warming is threatening their ability to sell affordable policies in a growing number of places around the world, including parts of the UK and Florida. (Financial Times) Sumitomo Life weighing Negara stake: "Sumitomo Life Insurance Co. is among companies preparing to bid for a stake in the life insurance unit of PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI), according to two people with knowledge of the matter." (Bloomberg) Copper hit a three-year low and other industrial metals tumbled as traders feared that China's liquidity squeeze could dent demand, as the country accounts for 40% or more of the global market for each metal. (Financial Times) The financial crisis has fuelled a huge expansion of organised crime in Europe with 3,600 criminal syndicates now active across the continent, profiting even from such prosaic products as household detergents, the head of Europol has warned. (Financial Times) The CFTC plans to approve the a civil lawsuit against Jon Corzine over the collapse of MF Global as soon as this week, according to law enforcement officials with knowledge of the case. (NYT Dealbook) Convertible bonds are back in fashion. This month will be the most active for issuance in two years, triggered by speculation about a Fed easing exit. (Financial Times) Sinopec pays $1.52bn for Angolan oilfield stake: The Chinese energy group and Asia's largest refiner, has agreed to pay $1.52bn for a share in an Angolan oilfield owned by Marathon Oil. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Bond market exit becoming stampede? (NYT Dealbook) - Where the bankers are: Singapore. (Bloomberg) - A woman, not Churchill, for £5 note. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -225.38 (-1.73%) at 12,837 Topix down -20.47 (-1.88%) at 1,069 Hang Seng down -280.93 (-1.42%) at 19,533 US markets S&P 500 down -19.34 (-1.21%) at 1,573 DJIA down -139.84 (-0.94%) at 14,660 Nasdaq down -36.49 (-1.09%) at 3,321 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -18.49 (-1.63%) at 1,114 FTSE100 down -87.07 (-1.42%) at 6,029 CAC 40 down -62.41 (-1.71%) at 3,596 Dax down -96.79 (-1.24%) at 7,692 Currencies €/$ 1.31 (1.31) $/¥ 97.37 (97.72) £/$ 1.54 (1.54) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.40 at 100.76 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.52 at 94.66 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.70 at 1,279 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.03 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.54% UK 2.55% Germany 1.82% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +5.38bps at 97.86bp Markit iTraxx Europe +8.41bps at 132.22bp Markit iTraxx Xover +28.22bps at 528.53bp Markit CDX IG +3.8bps at 97.59bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Location: United States

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.53

Notes: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), released by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

#END

DE IFO - Business Climate

Location: Germany

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 105.7 / Consensus: 105.7

Notes: This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Expectations

Location: Germany

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 101.6 / Consensus: 102.0

Notes: The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Current Assessment

Location: Germany

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 110.0 / Consensus: 109.5

Notes: The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 24/06/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 2.0%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-21 05:34:33 by Joseph Cotterill Chinese interbank rates eased after reports of central bank support. The one-day repo rate receded 3.84 percentage points to 7.9 per cent, its biggest drop since 2007, while the seven-day rate fell 3.51 percentages points from the record high it set on Thursday (Bloomberg). Fed casualties watch: Pimco's Total Return Fund is now down 2.2 per cent for the year, the worst performing of large US total return funds (Bloomberg); Having fallen below $1,300, gold's 23 per cent slump this year is on course to be its worst since 1981 (Bloomberg); Thursday's bond sell-off saw ETFs' discounts to underlying asset values widen sharply, with cash redemptions halted for some (Financial Times). The ESM has been authorised to 'directly recapitalise' eurozone banks but only if governments make their own investments in stricken lenders first, and with retroactive application of the new powers to be decided on a 'case by case' basis. Eurozone financial ministers also confirmed the size of the direct recap funds to be €60bn, unless later expanded by the ESM board. The ESM expects the tool to become operational in the second half of 2014 (Financial Times). Oracle's revenue growth stagnated for another quarter. Revenues from new software licenses and cloud offerings increased by only 1 per cent in the second quarter. Oracle shares fell 8 per cent after the close, despite a doubling of its dividend and authorisation for a $12bn stock buyback (Wall Street Journal). The IMF has warned eurozone creditors of gaps in financing Greece's bailout, placing its distribution of aid in July in doubt. National eurozone central banks' refusal to roll over their maturing holdings of Greek bonds has compounded the €3bn-€4bn shortfall (Financial Times). Softbank's chief executive revealed the ambition behind its $21.6bn bid for Sprint Nextel. "We want to be the world's No.1 company in various terms including profit, cashflow and market value," Masayoshi Son told shareholders on Friday (Bloomberg). UK prosecutors alleged that former Libor trader Tom Hayes conspired with employees at eight banks and interdealer brokers. The companies named at a court appearance by Hayes, who has been charged with eight counts of "conspiring to defraud", included Tullett Prebon. The broker said on Thursday that it has been asked to provide information to investigators, but that it has not been told that it or its employees are being investigated (Wall Street Journal). COMMENT AND CURIOS - Did Bernanke just let down an asset bubble?, asks John Authers. (Financial Times) - Investors won't get fooled again by Russian growth, Sergei Guriev says. (Financial Times) - The real central bank exit to worry about might be the ECB's... (Financial Times) - Why triathlon-going 'middle aged men in Lycra' should take it easy. (Bloomberg) - Brazil's protests are pretty unlike elsewhere. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -63.97 (-0.49%) at 12,950 Topix down -13.30 (-1.22%) at 1,078 Hang Seng down -305.59 (-1.50%) at 20,077 US markets S&P 500 down -40.74 (-2.50%) at 1,588 DJIA down -353.87 (-2.34%) at 14,758 Nasdaq down -78.56 (-2.28%) at 3,364 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -36.22 (-3.07%) at 1,143 FTSE100 down -189.31 (-2.98%) at 6,159 CAC 40 down -140.41 (-3.66%) at 3,694 Dax down -268.60 (-3.28%) at 7,928 Currencies €/$ 1.323 (1.325) $/¥ 97.29 (96.92) £/$ 1.55 (1.555) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.42 at 102.57 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.17 at 95.31 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.2 at 1,287 Copper (Comex) up 0.01 at 3.07 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.42 UK 2.29 Germany 1.66 CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx Europe +12.3bps at 119bp Markit iTraxx Xover +45bps at 484.7bp Markit CDX IG +5.3bps at 92.6bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: United States

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 13:58 - 14:58

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 52.3 / Consensus: 52.8

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the United States. Readings above 50 imply the economy is expanding, making investors understood it as a bullish for the USD, whereas a result below 50 points for an economic contraction, and weighs negatively on the currency.

#END

US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 334K / Consensus: 340K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.5% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

#END

UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.7 / Consensus: 50.0

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

#END

DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 20/06/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 49.4 / Consensus: 49.8

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-20 05:33:22 by Joseph Cotterill Ben Bernanke said that QE could end completely by mid-2014, and that it would be "appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year" on current economic trends. Ten-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since March 2012 after the Fed chairman's press conference on Wednesday, rising to 2.36 per cent (Wall Street Journal, Reuters). Bernanke: "when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7 per cent, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains" (Financial Times). Chinese manufacturing activity slumped further in June. The HSBC-Markit flash PMI came in at 48.3, lower than forecasts of 49.1, and May's reading of 49.1 (Bloomberg). The Australian dollar fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since September 2010, below $0.93, following the PMI release (Wall Street Journal). UK bank capital hole: RBS is £10bn-£12bn short, Lloyds £8bn-£9bn, and Barclays £3bn-£5bn according to Prudential Regulation Authority findings out early on Thursday (Financial Times). The UK government will launch an "urgent investigation" into creating a bad bank from RBS's toxic assets, Chancellor George Osborne said in his annual Mansion House speech. "We will see whether it's right for Britain to, in effect, see RBS broken up," the Chancellor said, indicating that the bank's Irish and UK commercial estate exposures, or £65bn-£130bn of its balance sheet, could be bad-banked (Financial Times). The bad-bank proposal has gathered momentum after a Treasury rethink of its effects on RBS's capital, but one key drawback is the time a split would take (Financial Times). The Treasury is also "actively considering options" for how to begin selling its Lloyds shares, the Chancellor said, but warned no fixed timescale was in place (Wall Street Journal). Chinese interbank rates spiked again, to their highest level since 2006. The seven-day repurchase rate rose 1.24 percentage points on Thursday, to hit 12 per cent. The central bank again declined to conduct liquidity operations (Bloomberg). Sony will study Third Point's proposal for the company to spin off its entertainment arm, its chief executive told shareholders. But Kazuo Hirai reiterated that the business was not for sale (Reuters, Dealbook). Microsoft recently came close to buying Nokia's handset business. The 'advanced' talks ran aground over price, which was not disclosed (Wall Street Journal). The UK's Financial Conduct Authority has begun to vet senior appointments to hedge funds, including US funds with operations in London. Several candidates for positions have been informally vetoed after interviews with the regulator. "The FCA is looking more closely at US hedge funds than the SEC is," according to one lawyer (Financial Times). COMMENT AND CURIOS - President Obama kept calling George Osborne "Jeffrey" at the G8. (Financial Times) - Big Steel has become too big too fail in China, says John Gapper. (Financial Times) Meanwhile, the Verrazano-Narrows bridge in New York is being repaired with... Chinese steel. (Wall Street Journal) - Are UK banks in recovery mode? Chris Giles: "The simple answer is No." (Financial Times) - "Count seven covers the grave offence of the defendant paying himself as much money as he legally could..." Fred Goodwin on 'trial'. (Financial Times) - Where next for Japan's big, $2,400bn pile of corporate cash? (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -129.67 (-0.98%) at 13,115 Topix down -11.51 (-1.04%) at 1,095 Hang Seng down -528.72 (-2.52%) at 20,458 US markets S&P 500 down -22.88 (-1.39%) at 1,628 DJIA down -206.04 (-1.35%) at 15,112 Nasdaq down -38.98 (-1.12%) at 3,482 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -3.23 (-0.27%) at 1,180 FTSE100 down -25.39 (-0.40%) at 6,348 CAC 40 down -21.21 (-0.55%) at 3,839 Dax down -32.43 (-0.39%) at 8,197 Currencies €/$ 1.325 (1.339) $/¥ 96.92 (95.21) £/$ 1.544 (1.56) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.33 at 104.79 Light Crude (Nymex) down -1.31 at 96.93 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -29.50 at 1,344 Copper (Comex) down 0.03 at 3.12 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.36 UK 2.13 Germany 1.56 CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx Europe -0.8bps at 107.3bp Markit iTraxx Xover +0.1bps at 442.5bp Markit CDX IG +5.7bps at 87.3bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK BoE's Governor King Speech

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 21:00 - 22:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: The BoE Chairman Mervyn King was born in 1948. He graduated from Kings College, Cambridge, and Harvard. He gives a press conference as to how the BoE observes the current UK economy and the value of GBP. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

Location: United States

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 19:30 - 20:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Following the Fed's rate decision, Ben Bernanke gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

#END

US FOMC Economic Projections

Location: United States

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: This report, released by Federal Reserve, includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts.

#END

US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Location: United States

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.25% / Consensus: 0.25%

Notes: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. Generally speaking, if the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article -Suggested Strategies to trade the US dollar with this economic release.

#END

DE 10-y Bond Auction

Location: Germany

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.41%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the Federal Bonds auctioned by Deutsche Bundesbank. German Federal Bonds have maturities of above then ten years. The yield on the bonos represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

#END

UK Bank of England Minutes

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-19 05:28:11 by Joseph Cotterill Senior bankers should face a criminal offence of 'reckless misconduct' under a toughened sanctions regime for failures at UK banks, according to the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards. The Commission's long-awaited 571-page report also criticises UK governments for "clearly not acceptable" interference in the running of part-nationalised lenders (Financial Times). Full report HERE, summary HERE -- other key recommendations: Study a split of RBS. "The Commission recommends that the Government immediately commit to undertaking such detailed analysis on splitting RBS and putting its bad assets in a separate legal entity" Get rid of UK Financial Investments. "It may be possible to bolster UKFI's independence, but this would be extremely unlikely to end political interference in the State–owned banks" Decade-long pay deferrals. "...much more remuneration to be deferred and, in many cases, for much longer periods of up to 10 years" Commission quote: "One of the most dismal features of the banking industry to emerge from our evidence was the striking limitation on the sense of personal responsibility and accountability of the leaders within the industry for the widespread failings and abuses over which they presided..." Andrew Tyrie MP: "This is not a bank bashing report" / George Osborne: "warm response" / Ed Balls: "radical blueprint" / CBI: 'said that prescriptive measures to defer bonuses would not be right' (Financial Times) ______________________ In Asia, the Nikkei 225 increased up to 1.3 per cent on good data for Japanese exporters, although the Shanghai composite was in danger of closing at its lowest level since December following signs of interbank funding getting tighter (Bloomberg). Dish abandoned its current pursuit of Sprint Nextel. Dish said before a Tuesday deadline for a final offer that it would instead focus on its offer for Clearwire, though it added that it "continues to see strategic value" in a merger. Sprint shareholders will vote on a $21.6bn offer from Softbank on June 25 (Reuters, Wall Street Journal). Abenomics watch: The value of Japanese exports rose 10 per cent in May from a year earlier, their largest increase since 2010. Exports to China rose 8.3 per cent (Bloomberg). Shinzo Abe claimed G8 backing for his stimulus policies. "This is a policy to achieve domestic objectives and this is not targeted at the foreign exchange rate of Japan," the Japanese prime minister said following the G8 summit at Lough Erne. Other leaders had a "clear understanding" of the need for stimulus, Abe added (Financial Times). EADS's chief executive said "never say never" to another attempt at a BAE Systems tie-up. But Tom Enders played down the prospects of a rapid return to dealmaking after last year's planned deal between the two companies foundered on German government opposition (Financial Times). How to game Platts oil benchmarks? "Offer to sell a small amount at a loss to drive down published oil prices, then snap up shiploads at the lower price... Several... traders interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said they have engaged in similar transactions... Platts says it isn't aware of any instances in which its indexes were gamed in such a way." (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS - Making 'reckless misconduct' in banking a crime is the right move, says Philip Augar. (Financial Times) - John Kay: don't blame the tax havens -- fix corporation tax in the G8 instead. (Financial Times) - Martin Wolf's take on the IMF's Greek mea culpa. (Financial Times) - Daniel Loeb, Abenomist. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +140.75 (+1.08%) at 13,148 Topix up +14.61 (+1.34%) at 1,101 Hang Seng down -264.54 (-1.25%) at 20,961 US markets S&P 500 up +12.77 (+0.78%) at 1,651 DJIA up +138.38 (+0.91%) at 15,318 Nasdaq up +30.05 (+0.87%) at 3,482 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.92 (-0.08%) at 1,184 FTSE100 up +43.72 (+0.69%) at 6,374 CAC 40 up -3.11 (-0.08%) at 3,860 Dax up +13.78 (+0.17%) at 8,229 Currencies €/$ 1.339 (1.34) $/¥ 95.21 (94.88) £/$ 1.56 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.03 at 105.99 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.08 at 98.36 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -2.00 at 1,364 Copper (Comex) up 0.01 at 3.16 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.19 UK 2.14 Germany 1.57 CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx Europe +0.2bps at 108.1bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.2bps at 442.4bp Markit CDX IG -0.1bps at 81.7bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Housing Starts (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.853M / Consensus: 0.924M

Notes: The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Generally, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Building Permits (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.005M / Consensus: 0.980M

Notes: The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Normally, the more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD.

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.4% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK BOE Inflation Letter

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 12:00 - 13:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: BOE inflation letter is issued if the earlier-released CPI y/y is above 3.0% or below 1.0%. If CPI is not above 3.0% or below 1.0% this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the CPI release. Otherwise the Tentative mark will be discarded when the exact timing of the letter is known.

#END

DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 8.9 / Consensus: 9.5

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

#END

UK Inflation Report Hearings

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies, including the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority.

#END

DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 36.4 / Consensus: 38.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

#END

UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

#END

UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 2.6%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 2.1%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-18 05:35:45 by Cardiff Garcia COMMENT AND CURIOS - The rise in US 10-year treasury yields is not just about the Fed. - Malcolm Gladwell on Albert O Hirschman and the power of failure. - Abenomics, Japan's debt, and privatisation. - A truce between monetarists and fiscalists? - Detroit takes aim at its pensioners. - 15 scenes from the Wolf of Wall Street. ROUND-UP EU-US trade talks launched amid French fury with Brussels: "Barack Obama and European leaders on Monday launched talks on "the biggest bilateral trade deal in history" , an initiative that the US president has put at the heart of his second-term economic agenda. Mr Obama announced that talks on a transatlantic trade and investment deal would begin in Washington next month. While EU leaders admit the negotiations will be "difficult", they believe they can be wrapped up within two years." (Financial Times) Co-operative Bank outlines restructuring plan to raise £1.5bn: "A sweeping debt restructuring by The Co-operative Group has marked the end of an era for Britain's biggest mutual, with a forced share listing of its banking subsidiary heralding the last days of pure-mutual status for the operation. Under the measures, needed to bridge a £1.5bn capital hole, about £300m of new Co-op Bank shares will be listed on the London Stock Exchange in a bitter blow to the government's advocacy of mutuals as a more sustainable alternative to discredited listed banks." (Financial Times) UK agrees EU deal on City regulation: "The UK has reached an agreement with European Union member states that will potentially limit Brussels' influence on the way the City of London regulates trading on its financial markets. A deal between the countries reviewing the EU's key markets legislation, known as the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (Mifid), represents a significant step forward after 30 months of fierce negotiations between the UK, France and Germany, as well as banks and exchanges." (Financial Times) Brazilian economic protests spread: "Brazil's student bus fare protests spread through the country's major cities late on Monday with hundreds of protesters invading areas of the national Congress complex in Brasília. Brazilian television showed protesters occupying the roof of the modernist Congress building, designed by the country's late architect Oscar Niemeyer, as the protests widened to become a general expression of discontent with the nation's political class. " (Financial Times) Private equity-run brands' tax bills spark ire: "Alliance Boots has accumulated a tax credit on £5bn of profit in the past six years, prompting calls by unions and MPs for an overhaul of the tax advantages enjoyed by private equity. The revelation came from an analysis by the Financial Times of the corporation taxes paid by some of Britain's best-known brands under private equity control." (Financial Times) Bolton retires after failing to crack China: "Anthony Bolton, one of the UK's best-known and most successful fund managers, is to retire from running the Fidelity China Special Situations investment trust, admitting it had proved more difficult to make money from China than he had anticipated. Mr Bolton came out of semi-retirement – at his request – in 2010 to set up and run the China-focused fund. He had made his name running the UK-focused Fidelity Special Situations fund, which enjoyed a compound annual rate of return of 19.5 per cent during his 28 years at the helm." (Financial Times) Peña Nieto pledges transformational reform of Pemex: "Enrique Peña Nieto, the Mexican president, vowed to press ahead with what he claimed would be a "transformational" reform of Pemex, the state-owned oil monopoly, a controversial move widely expected to unleash billions of dollars of foreign investment. Mr Peña Nieto said the need to liberalise Pemex was already agreed under the so-called Pact for Mexico, a coalition between the country's three main political parties, and that a more detailed proposal would be forthcoming within "two to three months."" (Financial Times) Samaras buckles in wake of ruling over ERT: "Greece's fractious political leaders have agreed to overhaul their coalition agreement, ending a six-day stand-off over the closure of the state broadcaster that had threatened to bring down the government and force a snap election. A deal was struck Monday night after an interim ruling by the council of state, the highest legal body, calling for Hellenic Radio and Television (ERT) to resume broadcasting immediately." (Financial Times) Czech PM Petr Necas quits over spying and bribery scandal: "Petr Necas resigned as Czech prime minister on Monday over a growing bribery and spying scandal, taking his government down with him and plunging the country into the latest in a succession of political crises. The scandal erupted on Thursday after about 400 police from the organised crime unit raided the prime minister's office, several ministries, and the residences of various lobbyists. They reportedly turned up €4m-€5m in cash and several kilos of gold." (Financial Times) UK prepares charges against Libor trader: "UK authorities are preparing to file criminal fraud charges against Tom Hayes, the former UBS and Citigroup trader, in connection with the global Libor rate-rigging scandal, two people familiar with the matter said." (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -22.98 (-0.18%) at 13,010 Topix up +2.99 (+0.28%) at 1,088 Hang Seng down -152.83 (-0.72%) at 21,073 US markets S&P 500 up +12.31 (+0.76%) at 1,639 DJIA up +109.67 (+0.73%) at 15,180 Nasdaq up +28.57 (+0.83%) at 3,452 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +8.44 (+0.72%) at 1,184 FTSE100 up +22.23 (+0.35%) at 6,330 CAC 40 up +58.50 (+1.54%) at 3,864 Dax up +87.77 (+1.08%) at 8,216 Currencies €/$ 1.34 (1.34) $/¥ 94.88 (94.49) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.05 at 105.52 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.01 at 97.78 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.90 at 1,382 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.20 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.17% UK 2.10% Germany 1.52% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.06bps at 90.51bp Markit iTraxx Europe -1.26bps at 108.14bp Markit iTraxx Xover -10.29bps at 442.38bp Markit CDX IG -1.28bps at 82.08bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-17 05:43:02 by Cardiff Garcia COMMENT AND CURIOS - A college degree vs being born rich. - Saving Abenomics: no time for cold feet on QE. - Protectionism's quiet return. - Steve Randy Waldman on helicopter drops. - And why Noah Smith is a fiscalist. - Paul Krugman on the possibility of a Canadian deleveraging bust. - How to live to be 100. - Calculated Risk's mid-year review. ROUND-UP Market turmoil forces G8 leaders to focus on global economy: "Turmoil in financial markets is once again overshadowing a Group of Eight summit, turning world leaders' attention away from trade, tax and transparency and back to the bumps on the road to recovery. With global bond markets swooning on the hint that the US might slow its money-printing operations and currency market volatility leaping as investors try to gauge the right level of the dollar and the yen, G8 leaders know the world economy remains a dangerous place." (Financial Times) G8 dispute breaks out on Syria arms: "An international row has broken out on the eve of the G8 summit over arming of both sides in Syria's civil war. President Vladimir Putin bluntly warned the US and its allies not to arm opposition rebels in Syria, reasserting Russia's uncompromising support for Bashar al-Assad's regime and declaring that Moscow backs the country's "legitimate" government." (Financial Times) George Osborne to hint at sale of bailed-out bank: "George Osborne is to give his strongest signal yet that he wants to move Lloyds Banking Group back into private ownership by the 2015 general election, albeit not at a price that would leave taxpayers out of pocket. The chancellor will refuse to lay out a specific "timetable" on the sale of government stakes in either RBS or Lloyds in his annual Mansion House speech on Wednesday, according to aides." (Financial Times) Bid to relaunch synthetic CDO unravels: "An attempt by two big Wall Street banks to revive notorious credit boom-era securities blamed for exacerbating the global financial crisis has failed after investors balked at buying some of the derivatives on offer. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have scrapped a plan to sell "synthetic collateralised debt obligations" – sliced and diced pools of credit derivatives – after failing to find investors willing to take on all of the deal's different pieces." (Financial Times) JPMorgan set to launch asset tracking service: "JPMorgan Chase will on Monday unveil its attempt to capture a slice of the growing business of managing the billions of dollars worth of cash and securities that funds and companies will need to stump up to back their derivatives trades. The US investment bank says it has created a hub that will allow clients to track and optimise all of their available "collateral" – even those assets held at other banks and custodians." (Financial Times) Bank of England says foreign banks made UK's credit crunch worse: "Foreign-owned bank branches in Britain made the country's financial crisis worse, shrinking their loan books by almost half at the height of the credit crunch, according to Bank of England research. In the latest sign of the BoE's concern surrounding the impact of international banking on the UK economy, research by the central bank showed lending from foreign-owned branches boomed in the run-up to the crisis before collapsing by 45 per cent between the third quarter of 2007 and the same period in 2009." (Financial Times) Brazil hanging on for record IPO boom: "Capital raised this year from new listings on Brazil's stock market is set to top $10.6bn this week – the highest January to June total in the country's history. But it all depends whether bankers can bring the world's second-biggest initial public offering this year to market." (Financial Times) Aerospace trio campaigns for European drone programme: "Three of Europe's biggest defence contractors have called on governments to launch a European drone programme to compete with the US and Israeli companies that dominate the sector. Pan-European EADS, Italy's Finmeccanica and France's Dassault want governments to secure jobs, technical knowhow and European militaries' ability to maintain sovereign independence over the intelligence that medium-altitude long-endurance drones are designed to collect." (Financial Times) Trade deal would benefit US more than EU, Ifo study finds: "The US would gain more than the EU from a transatlantic trade deal, according to a study to be released on Monday. Its report concludes that a transatlantic agreement would reduce trade flows within Europe and damage many developing countries. Economists at the Munich-based Ifo institute, a German economic think-tank, found that a trade deal would lead to a 13.4 per cent increase in US income per head in real terms over the "long term" but only an average 5 per cent rise among the EU's 27 member states." (Financial Times) Italy's coalition issues package of measures to boost economy: "Italy's fragile coalition government has closed ranks around a budget-neutral decree intended to boost the recession-hit economy while putting off decisions on controversial tax cuts. Enrico Letta, the centre-left prime minister, announced a package of some 80 measures on Saturday night after a difficult cabinet meeting lasting nearly six hours. Earlier he assured José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, that Italy would keep to its target of a 2.9 per cent budget deficit this year." (Financial Times) French companies adopt 'say on pay' to avert legislation: "French companies, under pressure from the Socialist government, have agreed a new set of corporate governance rules including a "say on pay" for shareholders and the creation of a special body to oversee compliance. The government, which came to power a year ago promising to crack down on high executive pay, has said it will withdraw a threat to introduce legislation in return for tougher self-regulation." (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +290.56 (+2.29%) at 12,977 Topix up +24.14 (+2.29%) at 1,081 Hang Seng up +282.03 (+1.34%) at 21,251 US markets S&P 500 down -9.63 (-0.59%) at 1,627 DJIA down -105.90 (-0.70%) at 15,070 Nasdaq down -21.80 (-0.63%) at 3,424 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +1.94 (+0.17%) at 1,176 FTSE100 up +3.63 (+0.06%) at 6,308 CAC 40 up +7.18 (+0.19%) at 3,805 Dax up +32.57 (+0.40%) at 8,128 Currencies €/$ 1.33 (1.33) $/¥ 94.65 (94.07) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.21 at 105.72 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.22 at 97.63 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.70 at 1,390 Copper (Comex) up +0.03 at 3.23 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.14% UK 2.06% Germany 1.52% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.45bps at 90.45bp Markit iTraxx Europe -3.32bps at 109.4bp Markit iTraxx Xover -19.31bps at 452.67bp Markit CDX IG +1.14bps at 83.36bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 17/06/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.5%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

US Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.6%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.7%

Notes: The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.2% / Consensus: 1.4%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1%

Notes: The core Consumer Price Index released by Eurostat is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services excluding the volatile components like food, energy, alcohol and tobacco. The core CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative.

#END

EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 14/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.1%

Notes: The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-14 05:34:20 by FT Alphaville COMMENT AND CURIOS - America's economy: the stealth boom. - Jonthan Portes on UK immigration. - Breakthrough with Honduran charter cities. - What is neoclassical economics? - David Beckworth's proposal for fiscalist and monetarist cooperation. - Sympathy for the Luddites. ROUND-UP Bond sales dry up as interest rates rise: "The number of companies tapping the bond market has collapsed as a result of rising interest rates, threatening to halt a global refinancing wave that helped companies boost earnings and strengthen balance sheets. Bond investors have retrenched in the face of increasing market volatility since Fed chairman Ben Bernanke hinted on May 22 at a possible "tapering" of US quantitative easing. This has left companies unable to raise financing on previously beneficial terms." (Financial Times) Fear Hester exit will speed RBS defections: "The ousting of Stephen Hester as Royal Bank of Scotland's chief executive has sent staff confidence to "rock bottom" and is set to accelerate a recent wave of defections from the group's investment bank, senior insiders have warned. Shares in the bank, which is 82 per cent state-owned, initially fell 8 per cent on Thursday morning, with investors taking fright at the prospect of greater political interference in RBS's management as well as a likely delay of its reprivatisation timetable. The shares later recovered to close down 3 per cent at 315p." (Financial Times) House prices in England and Wales top pre-credit crunch high: "House prices in England and Wales rose to a record last month, beating their pre-recession peak, as government measures to boost home ownership started to stimulate the market. A month-on-month rise of 0.4 per cent in May, to £233,061, took the annual growth rate to 2.7 per cent, according to the LSL/Acadametrics house price index, which the Financial Times helped set up." (Financial Times) Rupert Murdoch filed for divorce. Mr Murdoch's marriage with Wendi Deng Murdoch, his third wife, had "broken down irretrievably for a period of more than six months". Ms Murdoch does not have equity in News Corp, and has no voting rights. (Financial Times) Ashley Bacon is JPMorgan's new head of risk. Bacon, a Jamie Dimon favourite, survived the heat of a recent Senate hearing into the London Whale trades, having been brought in to deal with the debacle. John Hogan will move from chief risk officer to "chairman of risk" on the bank's operating committee, but is ultimately likely to step down from the group of executives that run JPMorgan. (Financial Times) "Naturally occurring" human genes cannot be patented, the Supreme Court ruled. However, the decision also said that patents could be valid for synthetic DNA modified in a lab. The case involved patents by Myriad Genetics, a Utah biotech company, on two genes whose mutations have been linked to breast and ovarian cancer. "A naturally occurring DNA segment is a product of nature and not patent-eligible merely because it has been isolated," Justice Clarence Thomas wrote in the unanimous ruling. (Financial Times) Brazil acts after real hits four-year low: "Brazil has reduced a financial transactions tax on currency derivatives to zero after its currency, the real, hit four-year lows against the dollar on Wednesday. The measure was the second such move in a week to dismantle currency controls as the government sounds a rapid retreat from its earlier "currency war" against foreign capital inflows." (Financial Times) Hopes for G8 trade and tax deals dented: "Hopes of a deal to boost the world economy at next week's Group of Eight summit were in the balance on Thursday night, as France and Canada resisted a last-minute push for an ambitious trade and tax package. France's refusal to include its film industry in EU-US trade negotiations has thrown into doubt plans to launch talks on Monday, when European leaders meet Barack Obama, US president, at the summit in Northern Ireland." (Financial Times) Germany seeks to halt EU-Turkey talks over handling of protests: "Germany is seeking to delay EU membership talks with Turkey scheduled for this month, in response to Ankara's crackdown on mass demonstrations that have shaken the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The prospect that the negotiations – a potential turning point in the long and troubled relationship between Ankara and the bloc – could be put on hold came as the Turkish prime minister delivered a "final warning" to protesters that they were no longer safe to remain in Istanbul's Gezi Park, epicentre of the demonstrations." (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +298.97 (+2.40%) at 12,744 Topix up +25.02 (+2.40%) at 1,069 Hang Seng up +206.46 (+0.99%) at 21,094 US markets S&P 500 up +23.84 (+1.48%) at 1,636 DJIA up +180.85 (+1.21%) at 15,176 Nasdaq up +44.93 (+1.32%) at 3,445 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -0.81 (-0.07%) at 1,174 FTSE100 up +5.18 (+0.08%) at 6,305 CAC 40 up +4.28 (+0.11%) at 3,798 Dax down -47.88 (-0.59%) at 8,095 Currencies €/$ 1.33 (1.34) $/¥ 94.91 (95.36) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.15 at 104.80 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.06 at 96.75 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +6.30 at 1,384 Copper (Comex) up +0.03 at 3.21 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.15% UK 2.15% Germany 1.56% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.35bps at 90.9bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.51bps at 112.72bp Markit iTraxx Xover +0.95bps at 471.98bp Markit CDX IG -5.14bps at 82.22bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Retail Sales (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 13/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.1% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 13/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 346K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

US Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 13/06/2013

Time: 13:30 - 14:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex Autos released by the US Census Bureau is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. This report is the "advance report, which can be revised fairly significantly after the final numbers are calculated. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the USD.

#END

The 6am Cut

London 6am Cut Posted 2013-06-13 05:40:26 by FT Alphaville COMMENT AND CURIOS - "The Purest Political Economist of Them All: Albert Hirschman's Legacy", by Dan Drezner. - What the sharp rise in real interest rates means for the US economy. - Should Japan default? - Overt monetary financing and crisis management. - The biggest economic mystery of 2013: What's up with inflation? - Google offers some detail about how it transfers data to the US government. ROUND-UP Stephen Hester will step down as RBS chief executive at the end of the year. Hester parted ways with the bank after the UK government, its part-owner, and the RBS board decided that a fresh face should lead a five-year transition to normal commercial banking again. "Having brought RBS back from the brink, now is the time to move on from the rescue phase," Chancellor George Osborne said (Financial Times). Hester is the sixth chief executive to leave a British bank since the financial crisis began, including his predecessor at RBS, Fred Goodwin. The RBS board will launch a formal search for a successor (Wall Street Journal). Yen's rise through Y95 hits Japanese shares hard: "Japanese stocks fell sharply after the yen rose to its strongest level against the US dollar since the first week of April. The Nikkei 225 sank 5.6 per cent in morning trading, while the Japanese currency broke through Y95 per dollar for the first time in two months. Fast Retailing, the largest weighted stock on the Japanese index, dropped 6.9 per cent, while Softbank lost 8.7 per cent. The broader Topix index fell 4.2 per cent" North Dakota's fields helped spur the biggest annual jump in oil production in US history last year. The 14 per cent increase to 8.9 million barrels per day was also the largest around the world in 2012, according to BP's statistical review (Wall Street Journal). The EU abandoned data-privacy safeguards that would have limited US spying on European citizens after lobbying by the Obama administration. The 'anti-Fisa clause' was removed from legislation in January 2012. It would have nullified US requests to hand over data, but was also opposed by many commissioners from EU member-states who did not want to antagonise the US as an ally (Financial Times). Apollo Tyres will pay $2.5bn for Cooper Tire, the biggest-ever US acquisition by an Indian company. The $35 per share all-cash offer is a 43 per cent premium to Cooper's closing price on Tuesday, and will allow Apollo Tyres to diversify away from a slowdown in India's car market (Financial Times). UK MPs demand Google tax revamp: "MPs have demanded urgent changes to Google's "highly contrived" tax arrangements in a hard-hitting report that said the internet giant's tax avoidance had damaged its reputation and that of HM Revenue & Customs. The public accounts committee said Google put the "enormous profit" derived from the UK out of reach of its tax system. It said Google's defence of its tax position by claiming that its sales of advertising space to UK clients take place in Ireland was "deeply unconvincing"." (Financial Times) UK regulator investigates FX rates trade: "The UK markets watchdog has launched a preliminary investigation into the foreign exchange market after receiving complaints alleging that banks traded ahead of customer orders and attempted to manipulate benchmarks. The Financial Conduct Authority requested information from several banks with large London foreign exchange businesses about their trading, people familiar with the matter said. " (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -579.30 (-4.36%) at 12,710 Topix down -40.11 (-3.66%) at 1,056 Hang Seng down -572.49 (-2.68%) at 20,782 US markets S&P 500 down -13.61 (-0.84%) at 1,613 DJIA down -126.79 (-0.84%) at 14,995 Nasdaq down -36.52 (-1.06%) at 3,400 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.78 (-0.41%) at 1,175 FTSE100 down -40.63 (-0.64%) at 6,299 CAC 40 down -16.86 (-0.44%) at 3,794 Dax down -79.19 (-0.96%) at 8,143 Currencies €/$ 1.34 (1.33) $/¥ 94.77 (96.00) £/$ 1.57 (1.57) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.38 at 103.11 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.50 at 95.38 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -0.90 at 1,391 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 3.23 10-year government bond yields (%) US 2.20% UK 2.18% Germany 1.60% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.33bps at 89.55bp Markit iTraxx Europe +1.31bps at 112.21bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.95bps at 471.03bp Markit CDX IG +1.9bps at 87.36bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Monthly Budget Statement

Location: United States

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 19:00 - 20:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 112.9B / Consensus: -110.0B

Notes: The Monthly Budget Statement released by the Financial Management Service summarizes the financial activities of federal entities, disbursing officers, and Federal Reserve banks. A positive budget statement that receipts exceed budgetary outlays is seen as bullish for the USD. On the other hands, a negative figure (deficit) that indicates government debt is seen as bearish.

#END

US 10-Year Note Auction

Location: United States

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.81%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the notes auctioned by US Department of Treasury. US notes have maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years and pay interest every six months. The yield on the bonds represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

#END

DE Germany Constitutional court ruling on OTM bond buying

Location: Germany

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 11:00 - 12:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: Germany constitutional court is scheduled to rule about the legality latest ECBs bond buying program, the OTM.

#END

EMU Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -1.7% / Consensus: -1.4%

Notes: The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).

#END

UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 12/06/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.4%

Notes: The Average Earing Including Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the U.K. economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates "Bullish for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen

#END