US Personal Income (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 29/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -3.6% / Consensus: 0.8%

Notes: The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 29/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.3%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US Personal Spending

Location: United States

Date: 29/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.1% / Consensus: 0.6%

Notes: Personal spending, released by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, measures purchases of goods and services by households and by nonprofit institutions that serve households from private business.

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 29/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US Gross Domestic Product Annualized

Location: United States

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 3.1% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

#END

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.9% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Real Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month on durable goods, consumer products, and services.. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)

Location: United States

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.5% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: Personal Consumption Expenditures, released by US Department of Commerce, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures consist of the actual and imputed expenditures of households; the measure includes data pertaining to durables, non-durables and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted toward individuals and consumed by individuals.

#END

US Initial Jobless Claims

Location: United States

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 336K / Consensus: 340K

Notes: The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

#END

US Gross Domestic Product Price Index

Location: United States

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.9% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The GDP Price Index released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce gauges the change in the prices of goods and services. Changes in the GDP price index are followed as an indicator of inflationary pressure that may anticipate interest rates to rise. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

DE Unemployment Change

Location: Germany

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -3K / Consensus: -4K

Notes: The Unemployment Change released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office is a measure of the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which encourages economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END

DE Unemployment Rate s.a.

Location: Germany

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 8:55 - 9:55

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 6.9% / Consensus: 6.9%

Notes: The Unemployment Rate released by the Bundesagentur f�r Arbeit and published by the German Statistics Office shows , in a percent basis, the amount of unemployed people in Germany. A decrease in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Normally, a decrease of the figure is bullish for the EUR, while an increase is bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am London Cut Posted 2013-03-28 05:50:03 by FT Alphaville Cyprus imposed severe capital controls: "Cyprus is to become the first eurozone country ever to apply capital controls – with limits on credit card transactions, daily withdrawals, money transfers abroad and the cashing of cheques – intended to prevent a vast outflow of euros when its banks open on Thursday. Under drastic measures that some analysts say are incompatible with monetary union, depositors would be able to withdraw no more than €300 in cash each day, said people familiar with the move. Transfers over €5,000 would require permission of the central bank." (Financial Times) Chevron cuts senior executives' pay: "Chevron, the US oil group, is cutting the pay of its chief executive and other senior executives after high-profile safety failures. The board has decided to cut stock awards and cash bonuses for 2012 by about 10 per cent, according to a person familiar with the decision." (Financial Times) RBS and Lloyds must raise extra £9bn: "Britain's two part-nationalised banks account for as much as £20bn of a £25bn capital shortfall across the sector identified by the UK's new financial ­stability regulator, people close to the process said. The Financial Policy Committee announced yesterday that UK banks were overstating their capital by £52bn, after it scrutinised their balance sheets with tougher measures of risk and factored in looming fines and expected losses." (Financial Times) Google eyewear to be 'made in USA': "Google will manufacture Project Glass, its futuristic digital eyewear, in Silicon Valley, in a high-profile example of the return of electronics manufacturing to the US. Google is working with Hon Hai Precision Industry, the Taiwanese contract manufacturer better known as Foxconn, to assemble the sci-fi headset at a facility in Santa Clara, California, according to people familiar with the company's plans." (Financial Times) Blacktone is open to keeping Michael Dell on as CEO if it gains control of Dell. Mr Dell began the current bidding war for the company with an offer to take it private alongside Silver Lake Partners, but his fate as founder and largest shareholder is likely to be key to any rival deal. Blackstone sees Mr Dell as a "potential ally" for securing control of the company if its bid succeeds. (Wall Street Journal) American Airlines' $11bn merger with US Airways received a bankruptcy judge's approval. However, Judge Sean Lane objected to a clause giving a $20m severance package to AMR's outgoing chief executive, Tom Horton (Reuters). The two airlines announced the merger plan in February, with the backing of creditors (Bloomberg). COMMENT AND CURIOS - Single supervisor? Not so fast. (Brussels blog) - Icahn unleashed. (Forbes) - Next stop for wealthy Russians: New York. (Guardian) - Personality hunger and the regulation of consumptive choice. (L'Hote) - Atheist-branded packages. (Marginal Revolution) - Faster smartphones or better battery life? (Slate) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -173.29 (-1.39%) at 12,321 Topix down -14.93 (-1.43%) at 1,032 Hang Seng down -250.21 (-1.11%) at 22,215 US markets S&P 500 down -0.92 (-0.06%) at 1,563 DJIA down -33.49 (-0.23%) at 14,526 Nasdaq up +4.04 (+0.12%) at 3,257 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.51 (-0.38%) at 1,184 FTSE100 down -11.81 (-0.18%) at 6,388 CAC 40 down -37.00 (-0.99%) at 3,712 Dax down -90.58 (-1.15%) at 7,789 Currencies €/$ 1.28 (1.28) $/¥ 94.16 (94.43) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.24 at 109.93 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.04 at 96.62 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -1.10 at 1,605 Copper (Comex) up +1.35 at 344.85 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.84% UK 1.75% Germany 1.27% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2bps at 104.71bp Markit iTraxx Europe +5.3bps at 128.42bp Markit iTraxx Xover +9.22bps at 491.29bp Markit CDX IG +2.08bps at 92.49bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.4% / Consensus: 0.4%

Notes: The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

#END

UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 28/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gfk Consumer Confidence

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -26 / Consensus: -27

Notes: The GfK Group Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Normally, a high reading is positive for the GBP, while a low reading is bearish.

#END

EMU Consumer Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -23.6 / Consensus: -23.5

Notes: The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

EMU Business Climate

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.73 / Consensus: -0.75

Notes: Business climate indicator, released by European Comission, is based on monthly surveys and is designed to deliver a clear and timely assessment of the cyclical situation within the euro area. It may be interpreted as a survey result: a high level indicates that, overall, the surveys point to a healthy cyclical situation. Conversely, a low level points to an adverse business climate. A rise (a fall) in the indicator will point to an upswing in activity and an improvement (deterioration) in the business climate. Its movement is clearly linked to the industrial production of the euro area.

#END

EMU Industrial Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -11.2 / Consensus: -12.0

Notes: The Industrial Confidence released by the European Commission is an index that measures the level of industrial executives confidence in economic activity. The survey asks about orders and buildup of inventories. A high level of industrial confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -0.3% / Consensus: -0.3%

Notes: The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Total Business Investment (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.1%

Notes: The Total Business Investment released by the National Statistics presents the total amount of capital expenditures made by private firms. A large business investment is indicative of overall growth and demand in the UK economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Current Account

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: �12.8B / Consensus: -�12.7B

Notes: The Current Account released by the National Statistics is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of the UK. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the UK exceeds the capital reduction. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am London Cut Posted 2013-03-27 04:22:53 by FT Alphaville Secret HQ set up in London to fight cyber crime: "Britain's security services are to open a new unit in London to work with business to protect UK companies from the growing threat of cyber attacks by China, Russia and Iran. The new initiative – formally called the Cyber Security Information Sharing partnership – will be established at an undisclosed location in London, where around a dozen officers from the Government Communications Headquarters and MI5 will work with business representatives to monitor potential threats." (Financial Times) The world's pool of Aaa-rated government debt has fallen 60 per cent since the start of the financial crisis. The loss of top ratings by the US, UK, and France have helped shrink the stock of debt deemed Aaa by Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's from almost $11tn at the start of 2007 to $4tn in 2013 (Financial Times). European regulators to charge banks over derivatives: "European antitrust authorities are moving soon to bring a case against some of the world's largest banks alleging collusion in the $27 trillion dollar market for credit derivatives, people familiar with the investigation said. The probe by the European Commission involves 16 financial groups. It focuses on whether they sought to stifle competition from exchanges in the market for credit-default swaps, which pay out when a country or a company defaults on its debts." (Wall Street Journal) Warren Buffett will become one of Goldman's largest shareholders, after a deal to convert billions of dollars of warrants into common stock. Berkshire Hathaway was originally issued the warrants as part of investing $5bn in the bank during the crisis, giving it the right to purchase about 9 per cent of the bank for $115 per share before October 1 this year. Tuesday's revised deal will see Goldman issue Berkshire stock equivalent to the company's paper profit on the position (Financial Times,Goldman statement). Buffett's gain of a 2 per cent stake from the deal will making him a top 10 Goldman shareholder (Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg). Bank of Spain sees deeper gloom in 2013: "The Spanish economy will shrink by 1.5 per cent this year and unemployment is set to rise above 27 per cent, the Bank of Spain has predicted. The central bank's latest annual forecast leaves little doubt that 2013 will be an even tougher year for Spaniards than last year, with housing prices also heading for yet another sharp fall. The economy will again be marked by weak domestic demand, a fragile labour market and tight financial conditions, the bank said." (Financial Times) Poland opens way to euro referendum: "Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, took a big political gamble on Tuesday when he opened the door to a referendum on joining the euro, in the face of strong public opposition to the common currency. The move is part of a campaign to prepared Poland to begin the final stages of accession to the single currency by 2015. Mr Tusk had previously opposed a public vote, arguing that Poles had already bound themselves to the euro when they voted in 2003 to join the EU." (Financial Times) US crackdown on Citi laundering laws: "The US Federal Reserve has ordered Citigroup to improve its compliance with anti-money laundering rules, citing deficiencies at an affiliate of Banamex, its prized Mexican banking arm. Citi is required to develop plans to strengthen its anti-money laundering procedures and adequately fund its risk-management programmes. There were no fines as part of the Fed order." (Financial Times) Commodities trading rule call rejected: "Switzerland has sought to ­protect its central role in the commodities trading industry, rejecting calls for stringent regulation in the sector and opting instead to launch a consultation over a set of voluntary principles for the industry. The Swiss government will publish on Wednesday a long-awaited report on the commodities industry, which includes groups such as Glencore, Vitol and Cargill with big offices in cities such as Geneva, Zug and Lugano. The report will stop short of calling for strict mandatory regulation, as campaigners have demanded, instead proposing a wide-ranging consultation about transparency and human rights, according to three people familiar with the discussions." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS - Tax havens are the biggest source of foreign investment in the Brics. - Walt Mossberg reviews the new Flipboard. (Wall Street Journal) - On Calpers and the efficient allocation of capital. (Dealbreaker) - Exchange controls, barter, and Cunning plans. (Nick Rowe) - Foreign investment in US dwarfs money going abroad. (Real Time Economics) - Twitter as the ultimate dopamine dispensary. (Abnormal Returns) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -5.52 (-0.04%) at 12,466 Topix up +1.12 (+0.11%) at 1,046 Hang Seng up +143.92 (+0.65%) at 22,455 US markets S&P 500 up +12.08 (+0.78%) at 1,564 DJIA up +111.90 (+0.77%) at 14,560 Nasdaq up +17.18 (+0.53%) at 3,252 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +2.12 (+0.18%) at 1,189 FTSE100 up +20.99 (+0.33%) at 6,399 CAC 40 up +20.66 (+0.55%) at 3,749 Dax up +8.77 (+0.11%) at 7,880 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 94.73 (94.41) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.09 at 109.27 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.21 at 96.13 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +2.20 at 1,598 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 343.35 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.91% UK 1.80% Germany 1.34% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.21bps at 102.71bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.81bps at 123.12bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.24bps at 482.07bp Markit CDX IG -0.72bps at 90.41bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey

Location: Germany

Date: 27/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.9 / Consensus: 5.9

Notes: The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Durable Goods Orders

Location: United States

Date: 26/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -5.2% / Consensus: 2.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

#END

US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation

Location: United States

Date: 26/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.9% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Durable Goods Orders measures, released by the US Census Bureau, the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, excluding the transport sector. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-26 03:32:40 by FT Alphaville Cyprus banks to stay closed for days: "Cypriot banks will remain closed until Thursday, the government announced on Monday night, as President Nicos Anastasiades acknowledged that the country had come 'a breath away from economic collapse' before its last-minute bailout. Speaking after he agreed a €10bn international rescue that includes the restructuring of the island's two biggest lenders with losses for bigger depositors, Mr Anastasiades also said capital controls would be imposed but as a 'very temporary measure that will be gradually relaxed'." (Financial Times) Dell founder set to explore deal options: "Michael Dell has said he is willing to "explore in good faith" the possibility of working with Blackstone or Carl Icahn, after they each moved to top the $24.4bn buyout bid he made with Silver Lake Partners for the company he founded. Dell's special committee said it had not yet determined if either Blackstone's offer of at least $14.25 a share for the whole company or Mr Icahn's offer of $15 for 58 per cent of the company constituted a superior proposal to the one on the table." (Financial Times) IPO fundraising jumps 50 per cent: "A bumper start to the year in the global market for new equity issues has seen funds raised through initial public offerings jump by 50 per cent so far, marking a shift in investor sentiment after years of declining deal volumes and high profile failures. Some $23bn worth of fresh equity has been raised in IPOs this year, up from $15bn in the same period last year, according to data from Dealogic." (Financial Times) Boeing flight-tests Dreamliner batteries: "Boeing took a key step to returning its 787 to commercial service when it undertook on Monday the first flight of an aircraft fitted with new batteries adapted to minimise the risk of overheating. A Dreamliner took off at 12:11pm Pacific time from the airfield at Boeing's main production plant in Everett, Washington, for the 'functional test flight' and returned two hours later." (Financial Times) Berezovsky death 'consistent with hanging': "Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky, whose body was found in the locked bathroom of his luxury mansion near London over the weekend, died by hanging, British police said on Monday." (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOUS - Liberals find themselves in spending trap. (Gerald Seib) - For the first time since 1998, emerging market stocks are underperforming in a global rally. (Bloomberg) - Robots aren't the problem: it's us. (Richard Florida) - Private RMBS take first steps to US comeback. (Reuters) - A new online course on the Mexican economy. (Marginal Revolution) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -29.54 (-0.24%) at 12,517 Topix down -1.39 (-0.13%) at 1,046 Hang Seng down -130.77 (-0.59%) at 22,120 US markets S&P 500 down -5.20 (-0.33%) at 1,552 DJIA down -64.28 (-0.44%) at 14,448 Nasdaq down -9.70 (-0.30%) at 3,235 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -2.99 (-0.25%) at 1,186 FTSE100 down -14.38 (-0.22%) at 6,378 CAC 40 down -42.31 (-1.12%) at 3,728 Dax down -40.45 (-0.51%) at 7,871 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 94.32 (94.15) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.10 at 108.07 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.06 at 94.75 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,605 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 343.50 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.83% Germany 1.34% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.33bps at 101.5bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.33bps at 122.31bp Markit iTraxx Xover +7.35bps at 480.83bp Markit CDX IG +0.55bps at 91.13bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 26/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.9%

Notes: The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Fed's Bernanke Speech

Location: United States

Date: 25/03/2013

Time: 17:15 - 18:15

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

#END

UK BBA Mortgage Approvals

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 25/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 32.3K / Consensus: 33.6K

Notes: The Mortgage Approvals published by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) measure the number of home loans issued by the BBA during the previous quarter. It is considered as a leading indicator of the UK Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall UK economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish)

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-25 05:40:16 by Kate Mackenzie EU ministers this morning approved a deal reached by Cyprus with international bailout negotiators, that should be enough to unlock a €10bn EU bailout and save the country from bankruptcy. The agreement will see depositors with accounts worth less than €100,000 protected. But those above those levels in Laiki Bank, the second largest and most troubled financial institution, would be severely cut and the losses on large deposits in Bank of Cyprus, which will survive as a much smaller entity, are also yet to be decided, but could be as high as 40 per cent. The eurogroup agreement will come as a relief, since rescue deals struck by the Troika have been unpicked by ministers in the past. (Financial Times) Financial stocks led Asian markets higher on news of the Cyprus deal. The Nikkei was 1.9% higher, the Kospi 1.4% and the Hang Seng rose 0.6%. The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.9% higher. However analysts expect the rally to be short-lived as the EU still faces a lot of work to hammer out the specifics of the financial aid. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg) Bankers' pay premium narrowing: "Investment bankers still get paid much more than other professionals, including doctors and engineers, but for the first time in a generation, the gap is narrowing." The multiple they receive of average private sector pay has fallen from 9.5 times in 2006 to 5.8 times last year, according to research compiled by PwC for the FT. (Financial Times) England and Wales house prices posted their biggest month-on-month gain in three years in March, driven by London, a survey by Hometrack showed. Prices rose 0.3% from February, the fastest increase since March 2010. In year-on-year terms house prices were flat, the first time they have not fallen since September 2010. (Reuters) Plan to crack down on banks' capital regulation arbitrage: A plan for hefty charges on banks that use pricey CDS to cut their capital requirements outlined in a highly technical consultation announced on Friday by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision takes aim at banks that have been exploiting a regulatory loophole by buying credit protection on risky loans but deferring or spreading out the premiums for several years. (Financial Times) Markets expect Chinese easing cycle to end: "China's swap market is signaling interest-rate increases for the first time since 2011 after inflation accelerated to a 10-month high and the housing market defied government cooling efforts. Two-year contracts that exchange the People's Bank of China's 3% savings benchmark for a fixed payment rose eight basis points this month to 3.03%, data compiled by Bloomberg show." (Bloomberg) US Congress reviews tax break for corporate interest payments: Kenny Marchant, a Texas Republican, and Jim McDermott, a Democrat from Washington state, leaders a working group on "debt, equity and capital" in the House of Representatives ways and means committee, the powerful tax-writing panel, are evaluating a move that would reduce the tax code's bias towards debt and encourage equity funding instead. The Senate finance committee is also exploring limiting the interest payment deductions, aides said. (Financial Times) Dell evaluating alternative offers: "A special committee of Dell's board is evaluating separate takeover proposals from Blackstone Group and billionaire investor Carl Icahn to decide whether either or both are likely to trump an existing $24.4 billion take-private deal, a source familiar with the discussions said on Sunday." Icahn offered $15 per share for 58% of Dell, while Blackstone proposed paying more than $14.25 per share, the source said. Both offers would leave some Dell stock publicly traded, in contrast to the Silver Lake group deal already agreed, which would see all of Dell bought for $13.65 per share.(Reuters) Xi to focus on trade in Africa speech: Chinese president Xi Jinping's speech in Dar es Salaam today, on his first overseas trip as president, is expected to focus on trade relations in a move to ease local fears China was in Africa purely for its resources. (Reuters) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - European bankers pursue Russians preparing to quit Cyprus. (Financial Times) - The meaningless Cypriot natural gas numbers. (Reuters) - Gavyn Davies: The four precedents set by Cyprus. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Münchau: Cyprus fiasco an illustration of eurozone's failure at collective action. (Financial Times) - Morgan Keegan case signals more scrutiny of fund directors. (Wall Street Journal) - Senior CMBS investors face missed payments. (Financial Times) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +229.93 (+1.86%) at 12,568 Topix up +12.05 (+1.16%) at 1,051 Hang Seng up +140.21 (+0.63%) at 22,256 US markets S&P 500 up +11.09 (+0.72%) at 1,557 DJIA up +90.54 (+0.63%) at 14,512 Nasdaq up +22.40 (+0.70%) at 3,245 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -1.28 (-0.11%) at 1,189 FTSE100 up +4.21 (+0.07%) at 6,393 CAC 40 down -4.56 (-0.12%) at 3,770 Dax down -21.16 (-0.27%) at 7,911 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 94.86 (94.49) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.59 at 108.25 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.48 at 94.19 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +1.60 at 1,608 Copper (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 345.40 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.97% UK 1.85% Germany 1.38% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +1.28bps at 101.83bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.01bps at 118.98bp Markit iTraxx Xover -4.14bps at 473.48bp Markit CDX IG -0.48bps at 90.58bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE IFO - Business Climate

Location: Germany

Date: 22/03/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 107.4 / Consensus: 107.6

Notes: This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Current Assessment

Location: Germany

Date: 22/03/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 110.2 / Consensus: 110.4

Notes: The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

DE IFO - Expectations

Location: Germany

Date: 22/03/2013

Time: 9:00 - 10:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 104.6 / Consensus: 104.9

Notes: The IFO Expectations released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse. An optimistic view of those 7,000 business leaders and senior managers is considered as positive, or bullish for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative, or bearish.Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Euro with IFO Report

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-22 05:32:49 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fellamid concerns about Cyprus. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3% and the index looks set to close today with the biggest weekly decline since October. (Bloomberg) Cypriot parliament debates banking bill today: The parliament in Nicosia is due this morning to debate legislation to enable it to qualify for a bailout and prevent the ECB from cutting off emergency liquidity for the country's banks on Monday. The 61-page bill would guarantee deposits up to €100,000 and put Laiki into resolution, and fold deposits above €100,000 into the Laiki 'bad bank'. The government has also tabled seven other bills, including one to to restrict cashing cheques and various other transactions. The eurogroup issued a statement Thursday night saying finance ministers expected a proposal from Cyprus "as rapidly as possible". In Nicosia on Thursday queues formed outside ATMs and several hundred protestors, many of them bank employees, jostled with riot police. (Financial Times)(Bloomberg)(FT Alphaville)(Eurogroup statement)(Reuters) Top StanChart executives called before US regulators: "The top three executives of Standard Chartered, including its chairman, were summoned to Washington for an unprecedented meeting with US regulators to explain a recent statement playing down the bank's violations of US sanctions laws, a person familiar with the matter said." Chairman Sir John Peace, CEO Peter Sands and finance director Richard Meddings met yesterday with senior Department of Justice officials and Cy Vance, the Manhattan district attorney. This follows the humiliating apology issued to the bank's staff and investors by chairman Sir John Peace on Thursday morning over comments made on March 5. (Financial Times) Help to Buy scheme could help existing homeowners refinance: "The Treasury's small print makes clear that borrowers cannot use it to remortgage with their existing lender, but adds: "A borrower remortgaging with a new lending institution would, however, still be able to benefit from the scheme." One person close to the government admitted the scheme could help many people who had borrowed at the height of the boom with little or no deposit." (Financial Times) "The US House of Representatives eliminated the threat of a government shutdown next week, approving on Thursday a stop-gap funding bill that temporarily eases partisan tensions after months of bitter fights over budgets." (Reuters) BBVA plans $3.5bn Mexican push: The Spanish bank announced the biggest investment by its Latin American subsidiary to date, saying that it would funnel $3.5bn into its BBVA Bancomer Mexico arm over the next three years – $1.3bn to upgrade bank branches, $1.5bn in new technology and the remaining $700m on its corporate headquarters in Mexico City. (Financial Times) Hedge fund revival: "The first quarter is likely to be one of the strongest ever for some hedge funds, in spite of a host of macroeconomic concerns worrying many mainstream investors. European equity-focused hedge funds have fared particularly well." (Financial Times) CVC in Matahari share sale: "Private-equity firm CVC Capital Partners has raised around US$1.3 billion from selling nearly half of its stake in Indonesian retailer Matahari Department Store, people with knowledge of the deal said Friday." (Wall Street Journal) Blackberry chief confident as Z10 enters US market: "Thorsten Heins, BlackBerry's chief executive, acknowledged on Thursday that the company faces a particularly tough battle in the US market, which he described as the "the most competitive" in the world." (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Dijsselbloem's role in the Cyprus mess. (New York Times) - Essential reading on the Wednesday eurogroup conference call, in case you missed it. (Reuters) - Chris Giles wins review of ONS decision. (Financial Times) - The two numbers determining Jamie Dimon's fate. (Financial Times) - Inside Putin's central bank governor surprise. (Reuters) - US government to expand cyber security programme into private sector. (Reuters) - The iTunes Australia price. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -187.31 (-1.48%) at 12,448 Topix down -12.39 (-1.17%) at 1,046 Hang Seng down -86.19 (-0.39%) at 22,140 US markets S&P 500 down -12.91 (-0.83%) at 1,546 DJIA down -90.24 (-0.62%) at 14,421 Nasdaq down -31.59 (-0.97%) at 3,223 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -8.16 (-0.68%) at 1,191 FTSE100 down -44.15 (-0.69%) at 6,389 CAC 40 down -54.71 (-1.43%) at 3,775 Dax down -69.46 (-0.87%) at 7,933 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 94.89 (94.88) £/$ 1.52 (1.52) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.23 at 107.70 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.18 at 92.63 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,614 Copper (Comex) up +1.90 at 344.20 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.86% Germany 1.36% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -1.35bps at 100.55bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.49bps at 118.97bp Markit iTraxx Xover +0.22bps at 477.62bp Markit CDX IG +1.63bps at 91.06bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Housing Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 21/03/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.6% / Consensus: 0.7%

Notes: The Housing Price Index released by the Office of Federal Reserve Housing Enterprise Oversightprovides an estimated value of housing market conditions. It is an important indicator as the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.2% / Consensus: 1.2%

Notes: The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -�9.861B / Consensus: �8.250B

Notes: The Net Borrowing released by the National Statistics captures an amount of new debt held by the U.K. governments (the financial deficit in the UK national accounts). Generally speaking, if the Net Borrowing is negative, it means the UK Accounts are surplus, and that should be positive for the GBP. While a deficit is generally unfavorable for the economy, a growth in the Net Borrowing is considered as negative, or bearish for the GBP.

#END

UK Retail Sales (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 21/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.6% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

#END

DE Markit Manufacturing PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 21/03/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 50.3 / Consensus: 50.5

Notes: The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

#END

DE Markit Services PMI

Location: Germany

Date: 21/03/2013

Time: 8:28 - 9:28

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 54.7 / Consensus: 55.0

Notes: The Services PMI released by Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-21 05:47:18 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index paring the week's drop, as the Federal Reserve maintained stimulus and a survey showed China's manufacturing gained pace. Tokyo shares jumped before a speech by the new Bank of Japan governor. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average was up 1.3% after being shut the previous session for a public holiday, and heading towards the highest level since September 2008. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Medvedev calls for EU rethink on Cyprus: The Russian prime minister signalled on Wednesday that Moscow was "prepared to consider various options" for providing aid to Cyprus but said the EU and Cyprus itself must come up with new, workable proposals first. A meeting between the Russian government and the European Commission is scheduled for today and Friday, now likely to be dominated by discussion on Cyprus. Asked about Russian aid in exchange for access to gas reserves, he said that was "not a simple question". Banks will remain closed until Tuesday. (Financial Times) Four possible scenarios. (Financial Times) Russian depositors totally fed up with Cyprus now. (Wall Street Journal) The yen remained weak against most major partners ahead of a speech today by new BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda. (Bloomberg) China manufacturing sentiment improves: The preliminary China PMI was 51.7 in March, HSBC and Markit Economics said, compared to 50.4 in February and an expectation of 50.8 for this month. (Bloomberg) Japan's trade balance in deficit again: February imports were down 2.9% from a year earlier, while imports were 11.9% higher, leaving a shortfall of Y7775bn for the month, compared to January's Y1629.4bn. (Bloomberg) Bernanke suggests tenure could end: ""I don't think that I'm the only person in the world who can manage the exit," the Fed governor said when asked at a news conference in Washington if he's discussed his plans with President Barack Obama. His term expires at the end of January." (Bloomberg) He also gave the most explicit indication yet that the Fed was likely to slow the pace of QE3 purchases before bringing them to a halt. (Financial Times) Bouyant Foxtons in talks to go public: BC Partners, which bought Foxtons in 2007 "have held talks with bankers about an IPO of the hard-charging estate agency that became a symbol of the UK property boom before stumbling when house sales dried up." (Financial Times) HP board survives protest vote: Hewlett-Packard, the world's biggest PC maker by unit sales, suffered a shareholder protest vote at its annual meeting on Wednesday, but its chairman and members of the board survived calls for their removal. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Shrewd politics disguises brutal and problematic economics. (Financial Times) - Editorial: Osborne doubles down on bad fiscal bet. (Bloomberg) - David Pilling: Abe is right to end decades of penalising Japan's young. (Financial Times) - John Gapper: Investors should challenge money-hoarding executives. (Financial Times) - Chinese state media gets critical of foreign-made cars. (Wall Street Journal) - China moves towards abandoning one-child policy. (Bloomberg) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: UP Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +153.28 (+1.23%) at 12,622 Topix up +12.03 (+1.15%) at 1,058 Hang Seng up +15.54 (+0.07%) at 22,272 US markets S&P 500 up +10.37 (+0.67%) at 1,559 DJIA up +55.91 (+0.39%) at 14,512 Nasdaq up +25.09 (+0.78%) at 3,254 European markets Eurofirst 300 up +3.97 (+0.33%) at 1,199 FTSE100 down -8.62 (-0.13%) at 6,433 CAC 40 up +53.81 (+1.43%) at 3,830 Dax up +54.18 (+0.68%) at 8,002 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 95.69 (95.98) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.08 at 108.64 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.23 at 93.27 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,608 Copper (Comex) up +3.30 at 346.85 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.96% UK 1.89% Germany 1.39% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +0.98bps at 101.9bp Markit iTraxx Europe n/abps at 118.48bp Markit iTraxx Xover n/abps at 477.4bp Markit CDX IG n/abps at 89.43bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

Location: United States

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 18:30 - 19:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: Following the Fed's rate decision, Ben Bernanke gives a press conference regarding monetary policy. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

#END

US Fed Interest Rate Decision

Location: United States

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 0.25% / Consensus: 0.25%

Notes: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. Generally speaking, if the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.Review Alex Nekritin's Article -Suggested Strategies to trade the US dollar with this economic release.

#END

US FOMC Economic Projections

Location: United States

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 18:00 - 19:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous:

Notes: This report, released by Federal Reserve, includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts.

#END

EMU Consumer Confidence

Location: European Monetary Union

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 15:00 - 16:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -23.6 / Consensus: -23.3

Notes: The Consumer Confidence released by the European Commission is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

DE 10-y Bond Auction

Location: Germany

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 9:40 - 10:40

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.66%

Notes: Displayed in the calendar is the average yield on the Federal Bonds auctioned by Deutsche Bundesbank. German Federal Bonds have maturities of above then ten years. The yield on the bonos represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond until maturity. Investors monitor the yield volatility and compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security as an indicator of the government debt situation.

#END

UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.4% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Average Earing Including Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the U.K. economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates "Bullish for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen

#END

UK Claimant Count Rate

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 4.7% / Consensus: 4.7%

Notes: The Claimant Count Rate released by the National Statistics is a monthly measure of unemployment in the UK It indicates the health of the UK labor market. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market, while it indicates economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures if the rate is down. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is seen as negative.

#END

UK Claimant Count Change

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: -12.5K / Consensus: -5.0K

Notes: The Claimant Count Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

#END

UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 7.8% / Consensus: 7.8%

Notes: The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the U.K. labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the U.K. economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is negative.

#END

UK Bank of England Minutes

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: The minutes of the BoE MPC meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the GBP.

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-20 05:47:32 by Kate Mackenzie "Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as a rally in Chinese shares offset declines fueled by concern that Cyprus's rejection of a bailout plan shows Europe will struggle to contain its debt crisis." The MSCI Asia Pacific was 0.1% higher. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. (Bloomberg) Cyprus seeks Russian assistance after rejecting bail-out vote: Cyprus's finance minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday night to try to wrest assistance from the Kremlin as his country's parliament rejected a €10bn EU-led bailout that requires €5.8bn to be seized from Cypriot bank accounts. The 11th-hour attempt to tap funds from Russia as an alternative to the deposit levy stunned leaders in Brussels, who said they were taken aback by the resistance of Cypriot lawmakers to shifting the tax's burden to large deposits, many of which are held by wealthy Russians. What happens next is not clear. "The ball is now really in Cyprus's court," eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Dutch television. The Cyprus government is working with European officials on measures to contain a possibly crippling deposit outflow when banks reopen, including imposing limits on daily withdrawals and capping the amount of money that can be taken out of the country. (Financial Times)(Wall Street Journal) Osborne orders £2.5bn in Budget cuts: "George Osborne ordered ministers to come up with £2.5bn of extra spending cuts, as he scrambled for money in what was expected to be one of the bleakest British Budgets in years. The chancellor was expected to spend about £1bn to hit the coalition's target of raising the personal tax allowance to £10,000 in 2014, a year ahead of schedule, and to defer a planned rise in fuel duty." (Financial Times) Visa may have to buy Visa Europe: "The European banks that own Visa Europe may soon decide to sell the card-payments organization to U.S.-based Visa Inc. and set up a rival system in Europe, people familiar with the matter said." The sources said a decision won't be made until a Visa Europe board meeting, schedule for April. (Wall Street Journal) "MF Global has reached an agreement with JPMorgan Chase that will result in more than $500m being returned to the bankrupt brokerage's former customers. The deal will bring to a close one protracted chapter in MF Global's complex and often contentious cross-border bankruptcy proceedings."(Financial Times) JP Morgan downgraded in confidential regulator scorecard: The bank's rating from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency "fell one notch last July to a level that signifies oversight "needs improvement," following the revelation of what are known as the "London whale" trading losses, said people familiar with the regulatory assessment." (Wall Street Journal) Liberty media in $2.6bn cable bet: Confirms plans to buy a 27.3% stake in the 4th-largest US cable operator, Charter Communications. (Financial Times) Sweeping ECB powers to regulate all EU banks agreed: "A deal was struck after EU member states agreed to give greater powers than the commission previously envisaged to the European Parliament over the appointment of top officials at the new single supervisor." (Financial Times) FCC plans to offload €2bn of assets: The Spanish construction group will today announce a plan to sell more than €2bn of assets as it girds itself for a further three to four years of contraction in Spain's crisis-hit building sector. (Financial Times) Volkswagen recalled almost 400,000 vehicles in China to replace defective gearboxes that may result in loss of power, a move that may cost the company more than $600m. "While Volkswagen was unable to immediately comment on the costs, research firm LMC Automotive estimates replacements will cost between 3,000 yuan ($483) to 10,000 yuan per vehicle." (Bloomberg) UBS said it would leave the panel that sets the benchmark Euribor rate, following exits by follows exits by Dutch lender Rabobank, Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International, and Germany's Bayerische Landesbank. (Wall Street Journal) Freddie Mac sues over Libor losses: More than a dozen banks and the British Bankers Association targeted in lawsuit alleging "substantial losses" as a result of Libor manipulation. The government-controlled mortgage company has already joined class action lawsuits against banks over Libor losses. (Financial Times) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - Martin Wolf: Cyprus shows how banking is dangerous everywhere, and threatens the eurozone's survival. (Financial Times) - Editorial: Nicosia should let losses come through restructuring. (Financial Times) - Cyprus' high stakes ECB gamble. (Wall Street Journal) - Analysis: Traders fear the ghosts of 1994 with return of the rate rise. (Financial Times) - Do recent bank bailout surprises mean the capital structure is being subverted? (Financial Times) - South Korea wrestles with housing-binge-induced slump. (Bloomberg) - Gold sales booming in Argentina. (FT Beyondbrics) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: MIXED Asian markets Hang Seng up +142.91 (+0.65%) at 22,185 US markets S&P 500 down -3.76 (-0.24%) at 1,548 DJIA up +3.76 (+0.03%) at 14,456 Nasdaq down -8.49 (-0.26%) at 3,229 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.83 (-0.40%) at 1,195 FTSE100 down -16.60 (-0.26%) at 6,441 CAC 40 down -49.72 (-1.30%) at 3,776 Dax down -62.91 (-0.79%) at 7,948 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.29) $/¥ 95.05 (95.13) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) up +0.45 at 107.90 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.29 at 92.45 100 Oz Gold (Comex) down -1.30 at 1,610 Copper (Comex) down -0.90 at 338.65 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.90% UK 1.86% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.5bps at 100.92bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.45bps at 108.41bp Markit iTraxx Xover +9.22bps at 413.37bp Markit CDX IG +1.67bps at 81.92bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

DE Producer Price Index (YoY)

Location: Germany

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.7% / Consensus: 1.5%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

DE Producer Price Index (MoM)

Location: Germany

Date: 20/03/2013

Time: 7:00 - 8:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.8% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Housing Starts (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.890M / Consensus: 0.918M

Notes: The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Generally, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Building Permits (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.925M / Consensus: 0.930M

Notes: The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Normally, the more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD.

#END

UK BOE Inflation Letter

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 10:30 - 11:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous:

Notes: BOE inflation letter is issued if the earlier-released CPI y/y is above 3.0% or below 1.0%. If CPI is not above 3.0% or below 1.0% this event will be removed from the calendar immediately following the CPI release. Otherwise the Tentative mark will be discarded when the exact timing of the letter is known.

#END

DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment

Location: Germany

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 48.2 / Consensus: 47.5

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

#END

DE ZEW Survey - Current Situation

Location: Germany

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 10:00 - 11:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 5.2 / Consensus: 7.0

Notes: The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum f�r Europ�ische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey

#END

UK Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.7% / Consensus: 2.8%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 2.3%

Notes: The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

UK Retail Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 3.3% / Consensus: 3.4%

Notes: Retail Price Index released by the National Statistics is a statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 2.0% / Consensus: 1.8%

Notes: The Producer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.4% / Consensus: 1.1%

Notes: Producer Prices Index Core Output, released by National Statistics, excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

#END

UK Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 19/03/2013

Time: 9:30 - 10:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.5% / Consensus: 0.7%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-19 05:47:37 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks rebounded on Monday as fears abated that Cyprus could plunge Europe back into crisis, but investors remained wary. The Nikkei rose 1.9% after falling 2.7% yesterday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite index added 0.3%. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Cypriot authorities rushed to renegotiate the terms of a €10bn bailout by moving to scrap its controversial levy on small account holders and instead seizing more from larger depositors and businesses. The parliamentary vote on the rescue deal was postponed a second day running and is now scheduled to take place today. In an attempt to win over the handful of votes needed, President Nicos Anastasiades suggested lowering the rate on smaller depositors to 3%, while those with over €500,000 would lose 15% and those in between would get a 10% cut. A eurogroup statement said there would be "more progressivity" introduced to the original scheme. (Financial Times)(FT Alphaville)(Wall Street Journal) Japan's crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station suffered a power failure on Monday night, and some systems, including cooling mechanisms for several pools storing radioactive fuel rods, remained offline on Tuesday morning. The pools are cooled to well below safe temperature thresholds but if power is not restored, temperatures inside one pool could rise to levels deemed unsafe in a little over four days. (Financial Times) Citi to pay $730m in subprime class action deal: Settles claims the bank misled investors in its bonds and preferred stock between 2006 and 2008 over its exposure to subprime mortgages, in the second-biggest class action payout related to the financial crisis. (Financial Times) Blackstone considering Dell bid: "Blackstone Group is weighing a bid for Dell, the computer maker seeking offers to rival the proposed $24.4 billion buyout by its founder and Silver Lake Management, said people with knowledge of the matter." (Bloomberg) Brussels green light for Italy debt sale: "Italy is considering a substantial increase in sales of government debt to boost its recession-hit private sector after striking a deal with the European Commission that allows a relaxation of Rome's fiscal targets." (Financial Times) Argentina charges HSBC with money laundering: Argentina's government said it filed criminal charges against the local subsidiary of HSBC for allegedly helping businesses evade taxes and launder a total of 616m pesos ($121m). (Wall Street Journal) China's foreign direct investment rose for the first time in nine months in February, a sign confidence in the world's second-biggest economy is improving amid optimism growth will keep rebounding. Inbound FDI was 6.3% higher than in February 2012, the Ministry of Commerce said. (Bloomberg) COMMETN AND CURIOS: - Cyprus shows how Germany's position is hardening. (Financial Times) ECB role in bailout comes under scrutiny. (Financial Times) - Shale gas hasn't dramatically changed the game for US manufacturers. (Wall Street Journal) - Activist investors are back. (Wall Street Journal) - Richard Koo: Monetary easing alone won't fix Japan. (Financial Times) Asian markets Nikkei 225 up +230.11 (+1.88%) at 12,451 Topix up +16.95 (+1.65%) at 1,045 Hang Seng up +91.55 (+0.41%) at 22,175 US markets S&P 500 down -8.60 (-0.55%) at 1,552 DJIA down -62.05 (-0.43%) at 14,452 Nasdaq down -11.48 (-0.35%) at 3,238 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -3.27 (-0.27%) at 1,200 FTSE100 down -31.73 (-0.49%) at 6,458 CAC 40 down -18.56 (-0.48%) at 3,825 Dax down -32.15 (-0.40%) at 8,011 Currencies €/$ 1.30 (1.30) $/¥ 95.57 (95.17) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -0.11 at 109.40 Light Crude (Nymex) up +0.05 at 93.79 100 Oz Gold (Comex) unchanged 0.00 at 1,605 Copper (Comex) up +0.50 at 342.20 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.97% UK 1.91% Germany 1.40% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe +2.5bps at 100.92bp Markit iTraxx Europe +3.45bps at 108.41bp Markit iTraxx Xover +9.22bps at 413.37bp Markit CDX IG +1.51bps at 80.25bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-18 05:19:18 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell and the euro weakened as investors fretted about an unprecedented levy was announced on all Cyprus bank deposits. The single currency fell fell 1.3% against the dollar and reached a three-week low against the yen. All major Asian benchmarks were lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific falling 1.6%, with the Hang Seng recording a 2.1% decline and the Nikkei falling 1.9%. The Kospi was 0.5% lower. The dollar lost 0.7% against the yen. Treasury yields fell as did JGBs, Australian and Singaporean government bond yields. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Cypriot authorities attempt to revise deposit levy deal: Cyprus' embattled president was on Sunday in talks with Brussels and political rivals to ease the terms of a planned levy on smaller deposit holders as he tried to scrape together a parliamentary majority for a €10bn bailout for the debt-laden island. President Nicos Anastasiades is still intending to raise €5.8bn from Cypriot bank accounts to help fund the bailout, but alternatives are being discussed to the deal struck on Friday, which would levy a 6.75% tax on all accounts under €100,000, and 6.75% on smaller deposits. Officials involved in Sunday night's talks said the levy on larger accounts could rise to as much as 12.5% and the smaller levy could fall to 3.5%. The country's 56-member parliament is scheduled to vote on the measure this afternoon, and success is far from assured. The government controls 28 of 56 seats. Anastasiades made a dramatic address to the nation calling for political backing of the €5.8bn levy and warning that the country faces a painful default without the €10bn tied to the levy. (Financial Times)(Reuters)(Wall Street Journal) Osborne to concede another debt target delay in Budget: "Having originally committed to bring the burden of public debt down by 2015-16 at the latest, the chancellor extended that target by a year in Decemberand is now preparing to concede another delay to 2017-18." (Financial Times) HSBC is gearing up to cut thousands more jobs. The bank is set to outline the next stage in its strategic overhaul at an investor day in two months' time. "There is no fantastical new strategy out there," said one person familiar with the bank's planning. "But there's still huge potential to be more efficient." (Financial Times) Insurers dodge bank-style capital surcharges: "The International Association of Insurance Supervisors will make its decision public when it unveils plans to deal with "systemically important insurers" on Wednesday, three people familiar with the plans told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) European parliament wants to restrict bonuses that exceed salaries for Ucits fund managers. "The parliament's draft negotiating position, seen by the Financial Times, would enforce a maximum 1:1 ratio of bonus to salary and requires up to 60 per cent of the variable element to be deferred and largely paid in units of the fund the manager runs." (Financial Times) Former PBoC chairman to be Chinese securities regulator: "Mr Xiao, who also worked at the central bank for 15 years, has had a lower profile than Mr Guo, raising questions about whether he will be as forceful in trying to bring change to China's markets." Meanwhile PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan will remain in his role despite reaching the retirement age of 65. (Financial Times) WSJ China bribery allegations: "The Justice Department last year opened an investigation into allegations that employees at The Wall Street Journal's China news bureau bribed Chinese officials for information for news articles. A search by the Journal's parent company found no evidence to support the claim, according to government and corporate officials familiar with the case." (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What happened in Brussels on Friday night... (Financial Times) - Analysts' reactions to the Cyprus deal: All over the place. (Wall Street Journal) - Editorial: Europe botches another rescue. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Munchau: Europe is risking a bank run. (Financial Times) - John Gapper: SAC case could discredit entire hedge fund industry. (Financial Times) - Chinese local government debt default figures spark worries. (Bloomberg) - UK banks rush to thicken capital cushions. (Wall Street Journal) - Analysts expecting Apple to raise dividend 50%. (Bloomberg) - JP Morgan, among others, is tinkering with its risk models. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -241.08 (-1.92%) at 12,320 Topix down -18.94 (-1.80%) at 1,033 Hang Seng down -478.11 (-2.12%) at 22,055 US markets S&P 500 down -2.53 (-0.16%) at 1,561 DJIA down -25.03 (-0.17%) at 14,514 Nasdaq down -9.86 (-0.30%) at 3,249 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.82 (-0.40%) at 1,203 FTSE100 down -39.76 (-0.61%) at 6,490 CAC 40 down -27.55 (-0.71%) at 3,844 Dax down -15.52 (-0.19%) at 8,043 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.30) $/¥ 94.73 (94.16) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.20 at 108.62 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.89 at 92.56 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +13.60 at 1,606 Copper (Comex) down -8.80 at 342.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.94% Germany 1.45% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.17bps at 98.42bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.96bps at 104.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.3bps at 404.15bp Markit CDX IG +0.49bps at 78.74bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

The 6am Cut

6am Cut London Posted 2013-03-18 05:19:18 by Kate Mackenzie Asian stocks fell and the euro weakened as investors fretted about an unprecedented levy was announced on all Cyprus bank deposits. The single currency fell fell 1.3% against the dollar and reached a three-week low against the yen. All major Asian benchmarks were lower, with the MSCI Asia Pacific falling 1.6%, with the Hang Seng recording a 2.1% decline and the Nikkei falling 1.9%. The Kospi was 0.5% lower. The dollar lost 0.7% against the yen. Treasury yields fell as did JGBs, Australian and Singaporean government bond yields. (Bloomberg)(Financial Times) Cypriot authorities attempt to revise deposit levy deal: Cyprus' embattled president was on Sunday in talks with Brussels and political rivals to ease the terms of a planned levy on smaller deposit holders as he tried to scrape together a parliamentary majority for a €10bn bailout for the debt-laden island. President Nicos Anastasiades is still intending to raise €5.8bn from Cypriot bank accounts to help fund the bailout, but alternatives are being discussed to the deal struck on Friday, which would levy a 6.75% tax on all accounts under €100,000, and 6.75% on smaller deposits. Officials involved in Sunday night's talks said the levy on larger accounts could rise to as much as 12.5% and the smaller levy could fall to 3.5%. The country's 56-member parliament is scheduled to vote on the measure this afternoon, and success is far from assured. The government controls 28 of 56 seats. Anastasiades made a dramatic address to the nation calling for political backing of the €5.8bn levy and warning that the country faces a painful default without the €10bn tied to the levy. (Financial Times)(Reuters)(Wall Street Journal) Osborne to concede another debt target delay in Budget: "Having originally committed to bring the burden of public debt down by 2015-16 at the latest, the chancellor extended that target by a year in Decemberand is now preparing to concede another delay to 2017-18." (Financial Times) HSBC is gearing up to cut thousands more jobs. The bank is set to outline the next stage in its strategic overhaul at an investor day in two months' time. "There is no fantastical new strategy out there," said one person familiar with the bank's planning. "But there's still huge potential to be more efficient." (Financial Times) Insurers dodge bank-style capital surcharges: "The International Association of Insurance Supervisors will make its decision public when it unveils plans to deal with "systemically important insurers" on Wednesday, three people familiar with the plans told the Financial Times." (Financial Times) European parliament wants to restrict bonuses that exceed salaries for Ucits fund managers. "The parliament's draft negotiating position, seen by the Financial Times, would enforce a maximum 1:1 ratio of bonus to salary and requires up to 60 per cent of the variable element to be deferred and largely paid in units of the fund the manager runs." (Financial Times) Former PBoC chairman to be Chinese securities regulator: "Mr Xiao, who also worked at the central bank for 15 years, has had a lower profile than Mr Guo, raising questions about whether he will be as forceful in trying to bring change to China's markets." Meanwhile PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan will remain in his role despite reaching the retirement age of 65. (Financial Times) WSJ China bribery allegations: "The Justice Department last year opened an investigation into allegations that employees at The Wall Street Journal's China news bureau bribed Chinese officials for information for news articles. A search by the Journal's parent company found no evidence to support the claim, according to government and corporate officials familiar with the case." (Wall Street Journal) COMMENT AND CURIOS: - What happened in Brussels on Friday night... (Financial Times) - Analysts' reactions to the Cyprus deal: All over the place. (Wall Street Journal) - Editorial: Europe botches another rescue. (Financial Times) - Wolfgang Munchau: Europe is risking a bank run. (Financial Times) - John Gapper: SAC case could discredit entire hedge fund industry. (Financial Times) - Chinese local government debt default figures spark worries. (Bloomberg) - UK banks rush to thicken capital cushions. (Wall Street Journal) - Analysts expecting Apple to raise dividend 50%. (Bloomberg) - JP Morgan, among others, is tinkering with its risk models. (Reuters) OVERNIGHT MARKETS: DOWN Asian markets Nikkei 225 down -241.08 (-1.92%) at 12,320 Topix down -18.94 (-1.80%) at 1,033 Hang Seng down -478.11 (-2.12%) at 22,055 US markets S&P 500 down -2.53 (-0.16%) at 1,561 DJIA down -25.03 (-0.17%) at 14,514 Nasdaq down -9.86 (-0.30%) at 3,249 European markets Eurofirst 300 down -4.82 (-0.40%) at 1,203 FTSE100 down -39.76 (-0.61%) at 6,490 CAC 40 down -27.55 (-0.71%) at 3,844 Dax down -15.52 (-0.19%) at 8,043 Currencies €/$ 1.29 (1.30) $/¥ 94.73 (94.16) £/$ 1.51 (1.51) Commodities ($) Brent Crude (ICE) down -1.20 at 108.62 Light Crude (Nymex) down -0.89 at 92.56 100 Oz Gold (Comex) up +13.60 at 1,606 Copper (Comex) down -8.80 at 342.00 10-year government bond yields (%) US 1.92% UK 1.94% Germany 1.45% CDS (closing levels) Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe -0.17bps at 98.42bp Markit iTraxx Europe +0.96bps at 104.96bp Markit iTraxx Xover +1.3bps at 404.15bp Markit CDX IG +0.49bps at 78.74bp Sources: FT, Bloomberg, Markit
#END

UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY)

Location: United Kingdom

Date: 18/03/2013

Time: 0:01 - 1:01

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 1.1%

Notes: The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of residential property prices in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

#END

US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:55 - 14:55

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 77.6 / Consensus: 78.2

Notes: The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the Reuters/University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

#END

US Industrial Production (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:15 - 14:15

Strength: 2/3

Previous: -0.1% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. If High industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the USD.

#END

US Net Long-Term TIC Flows

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 13:00 - 14:00

Strength: 2/3

Previous: $64.2B

Notes: The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Core s.a

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 232.11

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.3% / Consensus: 0.2%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 3/3

Previous: 1.6% / Consensus: 1.9%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END

US Consumer Price Index (MoM)

Location: United States

Date: 15/03/2013

Time: 12:30 - 13:30

Strength: 2/3

Previous: 0.0% / Consensus: 0.5%

Notes: The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

#END